This is our second of two bowl threads. Have already set up the Dec 31 - Jan 11 version.
THANKS so much to Covers Nation once again for a great season. ......Be careful during bowl season - at least with our picks....We find the bowl season very difficult.....but that will not stop us from delivering HARD HITTING and sometimes MEANINGLESS analysis on every game to help you make your own decisions.
This is our second of two bowl threads. Have already set up the Dec 31 - Jan 11 version.
THANKS so much to Covers Nation once again for a great season. ......Be careful during bowl season - at least with our picks....We find the bowl season very difficult.....but that will not stop us from delivering HARD HITTING and sometimes MEANINGLESS analysis on every game to help you make your own decisions.
Toyota Atari Shreddies Count Chocula MIAMI BEACH BOWL
South Florida +3
Megalocks line SF -1
Sagarin WK -2.5
This should be a blast. Last year's game was fantastic Memphis/BYU tons of scoring - a lot of hatred - and a big Memphis comeback leading to a 47239087857289345 STAR Megalocks winner.
Many other popular power ratings have WK as a much bigger fav in this one - we have seen as high as 10/10.5 so maybe we are peeing into the wind. Maybe not.
We have had our eye on S Florida for a while. They finished the season on quite a roll....Whipped Temple at home putting up 556Y in the process.....Then they destroyed Cincy at home - putting up another 561Y....they led 51-3 at half....Cincy was point shaving as per usual with 6 turnovers early but SFlo looked good....They finished with a 44-3 pasting of UCF. Flowers has the potential to be really special at QB and he and Mack have combined for over 2100Y rushing and 18 TD....They only rank #105 in passing yards but they are 21st in efficiency....Very crisp and balanced offense do not think they will have any problem moving on WK. WK is excellent in turnover margin but SF is also very good in that regard. Defense is ranked #33 vs run and #26 in pass eff D....Have the speed to matchup well vs WK and they proved they could handle good passing teams vs Memphis (gave up 24) and Cincy was unable to do anything until the game was decided.
USF should be plenty motivated and have the edge here - or at a minimum - we feel it is even. First bowl game in 5 years for South Florida and they have to be jacked to grab momentum going into 2016. WK won CUSA. Playing USF. As a favorite. In Florida. Not a great spot for them but they did not win 11 games by accident.
Doughty is a great QB. He had 45 TD passes and just may end up with over 5000Y this season. Against a D with a pulse - and away from home - think SF gets more stops on D than WK.
USF HC Willie Taggart goes up against his old team. Interesting matchup. It has been a long time - left after 2012 - so once again - if anything this provides a motivational edge - players will go hard for the HC. Just my opinion.
We read that former USF White is with WK maybe giving them some intel. Different offense this year. From what we read that should not be a problem - but don't say we do not scour the internet for our DOUBLE PLATINUM PREMIUM subscribers.
GL....mega
0
first pick
Toyota Atari Shreddies Count Chocula MIAMI BEACH BOWL
South Florida +3
Megalocks line SF -1
Sagarin WK -2.5
This should be a blast. Last year's game was fantastic Memphis/BYU tons of scoring - a lot of hatred - and a big Memphis comeback leading to a 47239087857289345 STAR Megalocks winner.
Many other popular power ratings have WK as a much bigger fav in this one - we have seen as high as 10/10.5 so maybe we are peeing into the wind. Maybe not.
We have had our eye on S Florida for a while. They finished the season on quite a roll....Whipped Temple at home putting up 556Y in the process.....Then they destroyed Cincy at home - putting up another 561Y....they led 51-3 at half....Cincy was point shaving as per usual with 6 turnovers early but SFlo looked good....They finished with a 44-3 pasting of UCF. Flowers has the potential to be really special at QB and he and Mack have combined for over 2100Y rushing and 18 TD....They only rank #105 in passing yards but they are 21st in efficiency....Very crisp and balanced offense do not think they will have any problem moving on WK. WK is excellent in turnover margin but SF is also very good in that regard. Defense is ranked #33 vs run and #26 in pass eff D....Have the speed to matchup well vs WK and they proved they could handle good passing teams vs Memphis (gave up 24) and Cincy was unable to do anything until the game was decided.
USF should be plenty motivated and have the edge here - or at a minimum - we feel it is even. First bowl game in 5 years for South Florida and they have to be jacked to grab momentum going into 2016. WK won CUSA. Playing USF. As a favorite. In Florida. Not a great spot for them but they did not win 11 games by accident.
Doughty is a great QB. He had 45 TD passes and just may end up with over 5000Y this season. Against a D with a pulse - and away from home - think SF gets more stops on D than WK.
USF HC Willie Taggart goes up against his old team. Interesting matchup. It has been a long time - left after 2012 - so once again - if anything this provides a motivational edge - players will go hard for the HC. Just my opinion.
We read that former USF White is with WK maybe giving them some intel. Different offense this year. From what we read that should not be a problem - but don't say we do not scour the internet for our DOUBLE PLATINUM PREMIUM subscribers.
Nice to see a little AAC love. South Florida really improved over the seqson. Had tough stretch but pulled it together and beating Temple was huge for them. Taggert has matchup with old team fresh off of an extension. Don't think that means a f'in thing. Lol. Usf plays hard, should be in it til the end. Real Nice!!
0
Nice to see a little AAC love. South Florida really improved over the seqson. Had tough stretch but pulled it together and beating Temple was huge for them. Taggert has matchup with old team fresh off of an extension. Don't think that means a f'in thing. Lol. Usf plays hard, should be in it til the end. Real Nice!!
Gildan One-Armed Hobo Waffle House NEW MEXICO BOWL
Arizona 9.5 New Mexico (64)
Megalocks line 7
Sagarin 11 ....(includes HF adjustment for New Mex)
HC Davie has done a pretty nice job with New Mexico. It started out slow - 4,3,4 wins - and now 7 wins heading into a "home" bowl game vs Arizona - a team they have beat the last 2 times they met which is more of a point of interest than a relevant handicapping factoid since it was quite a while ago. The NM surge started in November with a win over Utah St - and a win on the road at Boise....What is really cool is that we cannot remember the last time a team won back to back weeks as dogs of 20+ each time....They also finished the season in style with another outright win as a DD dog vs a decent Air Force team. Now granted...Boise severely outgained NM and had a 40-11 FD edge....and they did not get much going vs Utah St....but wins are wins....and NM has to be feeling good about themselves. In our opinion this game is a much bigger deal for them and will have a motivational edge or whatever you may want to call it....We fondly recall the last time Arizona was in this bowl game in 2012 vs Nevada as approximately the same size fav and needed a virtual miracle to come back and win by one point in a 298473057034789 star Megalocks winner. ...New Mexico does not do much in the passing game but they can move the ball and generate big plays with the running attack....Pressley and Gipson have combined for over 1600Y and 17 TD....QB Jordan looks healthy and can hit you with a big play once in a while.....Now their D is nothing special at all - but - they are #33 in turnover margin and #4 in RZ D. They have just found a way this year. Arizona's D is awful but they do get star Scooby back at LB and this is apparently is last game will announce going to draft apparently after the game. He will make some plays and probably have 20+ tackles but NM should be able to move the ball pretty easily in this one - Az has given up 31 45 49 38 30 52 last 6 games and in 2 other ones gave up 55,56. It's not often you see the #113th ranked D in a bowl laying almost DD.
Arizona has been a disappointment this year for sure at least to us. However they can still move the ball on offense and if they can score TDs when in the RZ instead of turning it over and/or settling for FG they will probably cover regardless of their D. QB Solomon will probably get the start - if not - Dawkins had over 300Y passing vs Az St. Randall may get a look at QB but also move around as a 'slash'. They finished the year playing well on offense - beat Utah and scored 30 on USC and 37 on Az St. Should get into the 30s easily in this one. We must respect that Sagarin has NM rated as his #106 team with the #110 schedule.
To us - this is a play the dog or leave it alone game. Sure Az may cover - but if you believe at all in motivation for early bowl games - this is a classic scenario of how much can the fav really care? Ticket sales have been brisk. NM fans and players are jacked - Crowd Will be Rocking Guy - take notice ! All joking aside - probably the best bowl situation NM could have hoped for playing in this bowl against a Pac12 team that they can beat.
Summary. Lean New Mexico. Gonna see if we can grab 10. If the line drops will have to reassess. Not going to play the game total but cannot see a reason to go under that is for certain.
GL mega
0
Gildan One-Armed Hobo Waffle House NEW MEXICO BOWL
Arizona 9.5 New Mexico (64)
Megalocks line 7
Sagarin 11 ....(includes HF adjustment for New Mex)
HC Davie has done a pretty nice job with New Mexico. It started out slow - 4,3,4 wins - and now 7 wins heading into a "home" bowl game vs Arizona - a team they have beat the last 2 times they met which is more of a point of interest than a relevant handicapping factoid since it was quite a while ago. The NM surge started in November with a win over Utah St - and a win on the road at Boise....What is really cool is that we cannot remember the last time a team won back to back weeks as dogs of 20+ each time....They also finished the season in style with another outright win as a DD dog vs a decent Air Force team. Now granted...Boise severely outgained NM and had a 40-11 FD edge....and they did not get much going vs Utah St....but wins are wins....and NM has to be feeling good about themselves. In our opinion this game is a much bigger deal for them and will have a motivational edge or whatever you may want to call it....We fondly recall the last time Arizona was in this bowl game in 2012 vs Nevada as approximately the same size fav and needed a virtual miracle to come back and win by one point in a 298473057034789 star Megalocks winner. ...New Mexico does not do much in the passing game but they can move the ball and generate big plays with the running attack....Pressley and Gipson have combined for over 1600Y and 17 TD....QB Jordan looks healthy and can hit you with a big play once in a while.....Now their D is nothing special at all - but - they are #33 in turnover margin and #4 in RZ D. They have just found a way this year. Arizona's D is awful but they do get star Scooby back at LB and this is apparently is last game will announce going to draft apparently after the game. He will make some plays and probably have 20+ tackles but NM should be able to move the ball pretty easily in this one - Az has given up 31 45 49 38 30 52 last 6 games and in 2 other ones gave up 55,56. It's not often you see the #113th ranked D in a bowl laying almost DD.
Arizona has been a disappointment this year for sure at least to us. However they can still move the ball on offense and if they can score TDs when in the RZ instead of turning it over and/or settling for FG they will probably cover regardless of their D. QB Solomon will probably get the start - if not - Dawkins had over 300Y passing vs Az St. Randall may get a look at QB but also move around as a 'slash'. They finished the year playing well on offense - beat Utah and scored 30 on USC and 37 on Az St. Should get into the 30s easily in this one. We must respect that Sagarin has NM rated as his #106 team with the #110 schedule.
To us - this is a play the dog or leave it alone game. Sure Az may cover - but if you believe at all in motivation for early bowl games - this is a classic scenario of how much can the fav really care? Ticket sales have been brisk. NM fans and players are jacked - Crowd Will be Rocking Guy - take notice ! All joking aside - probably the best bowl situation NM could have hoped for playing in this bowl against a Pac12 team that they can beat.
Summary. Lean New Mexico. Gonna see if we can grab 10. If the line drops will have to reassess. Not going to play the game total but cannot see a reason to go under that is for certain.
Good write up Mega This game reminds me of the 2012 NW bowl .AZ was favored over Nevada by 8.5 and had to comeback late to win 49-48 Arizona trailed 21-0 in the first quarter and was down 45-28 entering the 4th. I think its a good play on the dog here. Big motivation for NM, home field etc.
0
Good write up Mega This game reminds me of the 2012 NW bowl .AZ was favored over Nevada by 8.5 and had to comeback late to win 49-48 Arizona trailed 21-0 in the first quarter and was down 45-28 entering the 4th. I think its a good play on the dog here. Big motivation for NM, home field etc.
Hard for me to bet against WK. I think they win the team outright and with only a fieldgoal for USF I would be betting against either a) my own instincts and b) hoping that by betting on USF+3 I am hoping for a push at worst. (Of course winning by 1-2 is possible though).
With that being said.... I'll keep waiting to see if the line moves or if you have anything more to say about other games. LOVE LOVE LOVE the Clemson +4 though... I'm not one to bet so early in the weeks but Clemson already dropped to +3.5 from +4 wondering if it'll move back up or drop some more. I'm confident enough to play them ML.
0
Hard for me to bet against WK. I think they win the team outright and with only a fieldgoal for USF I would be betting against either a) my own instincts and b) hoping that by betting on USF+3 I am hoping for a push at worst. (Of course winning by 1-2 is possible though).
With that being said.... I'll keep waiting to see if the line moves or if you have anything more to say about other games. LOVE LOVE LOVE the Clemson +4 though... I'm not one to bet so early in the weeks but Clemson already dropped to +3.5 from +4 wondering if it'll move back up or drop some more. I'm confident enough to play them ML.
SCC in case you haven't read my post in the other thread basically the line hardly comes into play in big games. Either fave covers or the dog wins outright so if you think Clemson wins it may not hurt to put some on the ML. GL with whatever you decide.
0
SCC in case you haven't read my post in the other thread basically the line hardly comes into play in big games. Either fave covers or the dog wins outright so if you think Clemson wins it may not hurt to put some on the ML. GL with whatever you decide.
SCC in case you haven't read my post in the other thread basically the line hardly comes into play in big games. Either fave covers or the dog wins outright so if you think Clemson wins it may not hurt to put some on the ML. GL with whatever you decide.
I will read it. Thanks!
0
Quote Originally Posted by buckeyefan80:
SCC in case you haven't read my post in the other thread basically the line hardly comes into play in big games. Either fave covers or the dog wins outright so if you think Clemson wins it may not hurt to put some on the ML. GL with whatever you decide.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Wackos 
......Be careful during bowl season - at least with our picks....We find the bowl season very difficult.....but that will not stop us from delivering HARD HITTING and sometimes MEANINGLESS analysis on every game to help you make your own decisions.
...New Mexico does not do much in the passing game but they can move the ball and generate big plays with the running attack....Pressley and Gipson have combined for over 1600Y and 17 TD....QB Jordan looks healthy and can hit you with a big play once in a while.....Now their D is nothing special at all - but - they are #33 in turnover margin and #4 in RZ D. They have just found a way this year. Arizona's D is awful but they do get star Scooby back at LB and this is apparently is last game will announce going to draft apparently after the game. He will make some plays and probably have 20+ tackles but NM should be able to move the ball pretty easily in this one - Az has given up 31 45 49 38 30 52 last 6 games and in 2 other ones gave up 55,56. It's not often you see the #113th ranked D in a bowl laying almost DD.
......Very pumped that you love the S Florida play. This is exactly the kind of matchup I wanted for them now just hope we are right 
Hot Forum Topics
