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Bowl Season - Dec 31 to Jan 11

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Posted: #126
Happy New Year Freak. Hope you had a good trip other then the snow. 
 
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Posted: #127
Thx K !
Happy new year pal. 

Had a great time. Back to normal tomorrow! 

 
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Posted: #128
Can't wait for your writeups Mega!!
 
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Posted: #129
 coming right up !
 
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Posted: #130
TAXSLAYER BOWL 

Georgia 6.5 Penn St (43)

Megalocks line 6

Sagarin 7


We know that Penn St is not a great "team" and are still building - but - they have some decent pieces. You do not lead the NCAA in sacks by accident. And Carl Nassib leads the NCAA in sacks and is tied for first in TFL...Overall the D is healthier for this game and think it stacks up very well against a pretty vanilla offense to say the least. Both teams are pretty good in terms of protecting the football - Lambert 2 int - Hackenpuke 5 int - so this strikes us after looking at it for a while like a game where points will be tough to come by without the help of the other team screwing up - or that freak punt returner on Georgia getting his hands on the ball - think he is playing. What really makes this a tempting play is the upheaval with the Ga coaching staff - purging out and readying for next season. Add to this some injuries - suspensions - and guys just not playing in this one - We do not think Penn St is going to face the same excellent D that played for Ga down the stretch. Not to mention that overall Georgia struggled late in the season much like Florida did. 

As bad statistically as Penn St looked most of the year - and they are without an OC for this game - we think there is more upside here with Penn St. We like their RB Barkley a lot. Hackenturd is not our fav QB - but - he does have an underrated receiving core in our view - and in a game like this - where any TD will mean quite a bit more than a Baylor/Texas Tech TD would mean - we want to have the team that at least has the potential to MATRICULATE in the passing game - statistically Ga very good vs the pass but we think Penn St can stick em with a big play or two if Barkley gets going. Now the Penn OL has been baaaad and we cannot gloss over that. Even with some new faces on D for Ga and questionable motivation - Ga can create some havoc and that would be bad but again - missing some regular personnel may or may not matter.

Final note - Franklin 3-1 in bowl games - and while that is a short sample - we like the fact that he is a proven winner in bowl games and has had a lot of time to prepare the troops. 

Summary. Strong lean to Penn St. Like Penn St TT over. Just gonna wait a bit to see if we can get +7. Doubt it. And we rarely buy points and never make up lines - so we many need to suck it up and take +6. Stay tuned.

mega
 
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Posted: #131
Gl today plays... Happy new year Bro
 
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Posted: #132
Happy NY Vankiep ! BOL to you as well
 
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Posted: #133
 
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Posted: #134
GL and Happy New Year, Mega
 
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Posted: #135
GL to you. anything for first half?
 
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Posted: #136
dish 

chewy  Happy 2016

sharpster - no sir - although if i had to make a correct pick or leave Covers forever and ever and ever i would take Penn +3.5 or +4 if available. GL pal !
 
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Posted: #137
don't forget Penn State's legacy in Bowl games with Joe P-there's history there that I'm sure's been told...that was an autoplay for me back in his day-just sheer out-coaching at it's best-

great analysis, I'm not worried about the 7, I think Iowa's effort will help you get there though...as idiots make conference generalizations
 
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Posted: #138
Hoyas  GL pal

Mid season obviously i would not be interested in taking only 6 points but this seems like a perfect storm for Penn St. Then again - i picked Iowa ! GL
 
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Posted: #139
Thanks bud. I'm a trend player who sees the favs going 5-0 yesterday.  Dog coming in hot!!
 
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Posted: #140
Quote Originally Posted by HoyasSax:

Thanks bud. I'm a trend player who sees the favs going 5-0 yesterday.  Dog coming in hot!!

I'm coming in cold ....Something has to give !! 

GL buddy. 
 
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Posted: #141
All the best Meg-head!

 You are one stand up guy!!

      Wishing you all the best brother!!!!

        Good luck today and ALWAYS!!!!


 
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Posted: #142
ok 

officially add

Penn St +6 

There are some 6.5 and a 7 at Bodog out there do not have accounts there so won't post that.

My raw #s showed Ga -6 ; Think the line after matchup adjustments and personnel/coaching analysis should be closer to -3. We shall see.

BOL mega


 
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Posted: #143
GL & may you have a Happy New Years MEGALOCKS
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #144
Congrats on the season Mega 
 
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Posted: #145
I am with you on this tooday, Mega million. I got lucky going against you on the Rose Bowl, but I really like Penn State. I have never seen so many favorites win bowl games and cover spreads. I think Penn State breaks the trend. Thanks for the write up.
 
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Posted: #146



bol pal
 
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Posted: #147
Just snagged +6 on PSU 
 
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Posted: #148
GL Mega. I'm going long on ASU today. +2 or +1.5 w odds. 3 would really be great. Interesting matchup w the history between the coaches and schemes kinda intersect...just think Graham's created his own monster which is better than Holgersen's. I like the home team too here and not sure what matchup for WVA commands a fav line so clue me in if I'm missing something there. Also a few late suspensions don't help WV.

GL Happy New Year. Glad you got that family time in amidst this carziness!!!!
 
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Posted: #149
Hey Mega.  I know you mentioned you were thinking about the Penn St TT.  What do you think of Over 17.5 as a play?
 
 
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Posted: #150
Seems to me if Penn St is a play, it should be parlayed with under. If you expect Penn St to cover, you have to like under. No way they cover in a high scoring game. Right??
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