Bowl Season - Dec 31 to Jan 11

Make that +7 derp! 

Did not handicap Penn QB getting hurt BUT BUT there is no guarantee they would have covered with him no whining. Just keep grinding ! Its not over but Ga and under looking good - GL to all

Liberty Bowl write-up next

mega

bowl record 2-5 

Megalocks line 13

Sagarin 10

No way we can punch the ticket on the underdog here. Arkansas has an excellent balanced offense and we are sorry to see QB Allen play in his last NCAA game - big fan of the way he plays very underrated. The nightmare match-up for K St as their pass D has trouble - big trouble - defending the pass and unless they can find a way to force some turnovers or play keep away - not likely - this game will probably get out of hand.

Of course the wild card - is this Snyder's last game? If so - there will be a lot of extra juice in those K St players. And I suppose you can say they are capable of giving teams trouble if the running game is clicking - but here again - the matchup favors Arkansas. #105 in pass eff D but the are 13th in rushing D. 

Never a fan of laying double digits in a bowl game. This might be the spot to do it. Just have to take a pass.

Summary - lean Arkansas and TT over.

GL to all that play the game....MEGA

Thx pal. Happy new year. 

 No write-up. Maybe it will work out.

My fav 3 bowl plays were Clemson S Florida and Oregon. QB got hurt before i bet. Was waiting for less than 7 (IF) and I got it.

GL to all !

MEGA

thanks !

regular season yes

bowl season no

GL rest of today pal

Thanks a lot !! I can't tell you guys how much I appreciate it. I am lucky to have the support to spend a ton of time working on NCAA handicapping - and also very lucky to have a great bunch of people to interact with on this site.  A 2-5 run over 7 games is no big deal but things are magnified during bowl season so I get the frustration for anyone following the last few picks and losing. 

Appreciate you checking in. Happy 2016!!!

Megalocks line 9 

Sagarin 5 

Well however this game turns out - On paper we have a pretty compelling matchup. Ironically - for the first time in a long time - these were our two best teams in our rankings for most of the season and we have really enjoyed watching both of these squads all year. We have watched 2/3 of Alabama's games start to finish and seen most or part of well over half of Clemson's games....We feel like we have a good handle on the teams - but most importantly - how the matchup may favor the Tide.

On several occasions this year we have stated how Dabo - and Clemson to be honest - has not gotten the credit or recognition that they deserve for being so consistently good over the past 4-5 years and beating REALLY good teams in bowl games. As underdogs. Against very good or great head coaches. By now - you have read a bunch of write-ups - heard about all the players - matchups - X factors - KY factors - Z factors - motivation - etc...To us this game comes down to a something really simple - can Clemson run the ball against the Alabama D - but more specifically - can Watson run the ball against that front 7 productively AND without getting killed ? Alabama is peaking right now and look scary at QB to go along with that D - so Clemson is going to have to score some points and the only way that happens is if they can be balanced and run the ball for at least 150 IMO. Well this is one of the best run Ds we have seen - giving up only 70/game on the ground. They are #2 in D - #1 in rush D and scoring D all while playing the most DIFFICULT SCHEDULE....beating among others Tenn LSU Miss St Aub Mich ST Ark Ga Wisc - waaaaaaaaaaaaaaat ??? Just as a frame of reference - never like to go back in time much at this point - but BC has the 2nd best run D and they held Clemson to just over 100 yds rushing - Gallman 48 and Watson 32. Of course they could throw at will vs BC - but have to think Bama shuts their run game down in a similar fashion and if Watson doesnt get killed running the ball not sure he can pick them apart other than on a big play or three do not think that will be enough. And we read somewhere - cannot find it been looking this morning - but something like Clemson's special teams were the 2nd worst in the NCAA in terms of net points allowed attributed to ST. Not good. And Bama has the ability to sting you in the return game.

I did some more work but at this point - you have all probably bet the game already or read some of this crap. 

Summary. Think that this Bama D is THAT good and if Clemson cannot run the ball consistently cannot see them covering because we feel Alabama will score 3TDs or more. Whatever happens - we wish both sets of FANS best of luck and congrats having your team in the big game. And yes - we will drink out of our frosty Clemson mug during the game should we decide to have a beer or two.

Best of luck to all. Thanks for a fun season.

MEGA