Bowl Thread 2010 (continued)

Puzzling line move on Md TN St...

Up to -2

Will respond tomorrow with a writeup...

Well, there you have it.

IMO that line movement is INTENDED to make you go 'hmmmm' when that number doesn't mean much... if it moves to 3 you can start to panic.

start a new thread please...

just click on the last page db

UPDATE:

Not a stellar bowl season, but not horrible either....

Hopefully I can squeeze something out of the last 4 games....

Record:   Down 30 units, Up 26 units

1.  BYU -11.5 (lean)
2.  Fresno ML +105 (1 unit)  LOSS
3.  Troy -2 (3 units)  WIN
4.  S Miss +3 (lean)
5.  Utah +17 (2 units)  LOSS
6.  SD St -4.5 (2.5 units)  WIN
7.  Hawaii -10 (lean)
8.  FIU ML +110 (lean)
9.  G Tech +3 (2 units)  LOSS
10.  WVU -3 (4 units) LOSS
11.  Missouri -2.5 (1 unit)  LOSS
12.  MD -7 (2 units)  WIN
13.  Baylor PK (3 units)  LOSS
14.  AZ +4.5 (lean)
15.  Army +7 (lean)
16.  KST +1 (2 units)  LOSS
17.  UNC -1.5 (lean)
18.  Wash +14 (2 units)  WIN
19.  USF +5.5 (lean)
20.  Notre Dame +3 (3 units)  WIN
21.  Georgia -6.5 (2 units)  LOSS
22. FSU +3 (2 units)  WIN
23.  NW +9.5 (2 units)  WIN
24.  PSU +7 (2 units)  LOSS
25.  Mich St +10 (2 units)  LOSS
26.  Miss St -4.5 (4 units)  WIN
27.  TCU -2.5 (6 units)  LOSS
28.  Okl -16.5 (lean)
29.  Stanford -3.5 (2.5 units)  WIN
30.  Ark +3.5 (3 units)  LOSS
31.  Mia O PK (3 units)  WIN

32.  LSU -1 (2 units)
33.  KY +3.5 (2 units)
34.  BC +7.5 (3 units)

National Champ game will come later....

GL all

Sorry I never got to the posts about the Mia O play last night....

I meant to, and then got tied up yesterday just about until gametime.

I didnt add on because the line never got to a flat 3, if it had I would have added a unit, so it was a 3 unit play for me.

Friend request accepted.....

First off, I dont know about anyone else, but I didnt laugh when I see $10 is your base unit.  It is immaterial to me.  It is just a different color chip.  Makes no difference in how you should use your method.  This is the biggest mistake "type A" gamblers make - they think you can only be "type B" if you bet enough - bullshit - you can do all the right things and still bet 50 cents a game.  You are on the right track already.

I have written volumes on the subject you ask about in your post here at covers.  I also keep in touch with a lot of folks through emails, and we help each other learn more about this business.  It is hard to give general advice without writing a novel, but I would be glad to answer specific questions if you have them.

The math side is one of the few critical components, you simply have to have enough math skills to be able to determine probabilities and calculate odds.  That is a given.  So there are 2 sides to learning math, one is the general side of probabilities and calculations (ie: being able to determine if -2.5 -110 is better or worse than -2 -116, cumulative probabilities such as a series of events happening, EV calculations etc) - and the second side is being able to put together a math model to help you handicap.

On the subject of a math model to help you handicap, much has been discussed here (especially credit goes to gcnmoo) about the "dr Bob" or similar method.  Basically - it is a math model based on historical statistics that goes through a series of calculations and regressions to boil down to a specific advantage or disadvantage in a given matchup.  This is different than something like the Sagarin computer ratings in that it is a PREDICTIVE model - in other words - something that is correlated to RESULTS.  How do you get there?  That can be argues a hundred different ways, but it starts and uses similar statistical data and then comes to a certain conclusion, based on the math you sift it through. 

One common tennent of all of our calculations is coming up with a expected yards per play on both offense and defense adjusted for strength of schedule.  This is assuming that yards equal points, which they dont always, but it is a pretty good predictor of longterm success.  I come up with about 10 of these types of ratios, and then I put them together to come up with a predictive line.  I tweak how I weight these and even how I come up with these all the time, but at the end of the process you should have some OBJECTIVE data element that is non emotional, and not based on perception - a true predictor.  I cant tell you how many times I look at a game and think "the Packers should be favored over the Giants" and then I look at my numbers and they point to the Giants, and my numbers are usually right.  It is often counterintuitive, which is why I depend on a math model so much.

Anyway, feel free to ask here or email me, and once again I get the feeling that gcnmoo is the closest to what I do here at covers, so he might be a great person to ask too to get a different perspective.

GL

Great response to Firebird27. You are indeed a Gentleman for taking the time to explain. Thanks for all you do.

Van: Great stuff above. ^^

Also, nice hit on MIAO and good luck on LSU tonight.

van= class act and solid experienced sports handicapper...