BRIDGE PLAYYYYOFFS

@GMoneyGTown

@Bridge1

 And should i forget before the National Championship game, thanks for all you do before the season with your pre-season futures bets, in season handicapping and post season.  I have been following you for a few years now since we got sports betting in Maryland and you are one of the few here that I follow. I may not always agree with you but at least you take the time to post WHY you are choosing a bet rather than 90% of the guys here who just post without any context or reason as to why. I imagine you put in a lot of home work and watch/study/read a lot on these teams and games and I for one appreciate the work.  I hope you have a good off season and best of luck in the semi final and final games and in the NFL if you dabble there.  Thanks again.

@GMoneyGTown

Word up dude .. much appreciated .. let's close it out .. 

SEMI FINAL

PENN STATE +1.5 (MGM)

ND reminds me of the Michigan teams we had in '21 and '22 the lead up to their big Natty run year .. D is very much in the elite category and think if they didn't lose a couple guys down the line then prob say Freeman built the best in CFB and maybe is with the losses anyway .. team can basically keep 7 up in the box at all times and make running nearly impossible and trust their NFL DUDE-laden secondary  .. what it takes to break the D is legit DUDE playmakers along with creative OC playcalling scheming the dudes open .. I think we saw UGA scheme up big pass plays a few times and other offenses found success during the year .. PSU has 1 I'd say good WR and a couple serviceable ones .. the guys to scheme open are the 2 RB's and T-WAR and run game is dynamic with the RB's plus Allar can pick up tough yds.. T-WAR's big runs this year mostly vs dud teams he had a massive 47 yd play vs the Bucks and just such an edge with a run/rec and even a pass threat means ND must account for him at all times .. PFF shows us Allar performs decently well under pressure this year, 6 outta his 7 INT's credited in a clean pocket ... cmon man .. 

PSU showed us they can at least dink n dunk down the field vs OSU and pull off a few big plays vs them .. the offense in theory coulda scored 24 but ended up getting stopped twice at literally the goal line (vs best RZ D on the planet) and O only landed the 2 FG's vs them .. The big diff for the Dawgs was they couldn't do dink n dunk vs the good D needed big pass plays and crapped out in short yardage / RZ .. PSU w their dynamic stuff at TE and backfield better QB .. less relying on outside / downfield WR's maybe helps stifle ND's insane pass rush .. and when they have to rely we see Nit's had to replace easily best OL-T Donkoh after the Minny game .. Rucci's PFF shows he's been lights out in relief vs Oreg, SMU and very tough pass rushers Boise had so maybe legit gem but huuuge test here .. PSU O/ND D is where the rubber meets the road I think it is Nitney's for the taking if they play their best ball .. 

^^ PSU / ND CONT'D 

PSU D is not quite on the elite level but cuttin em slack for the Oreg game they got the stop when needed one and gave their O a shot and that was a horrible spot to plan for that offense .. and struggles vs USC in another really tough spot I thought .. they battled the buckeyes very well nothing was easy there .. ND's OC really needs some dudes next year and they will turn a big key but for now he's got the one good WR target and TE's help but ND again like UM from those non natty years Irish are much less dynamic and risk being one dimensional vs a D that only faltered this year very high performing dynamic offenses and only in ugly nasty spots IMO and Minny such an ugly spot PSU got the stops when they needed em .. Reports say J-LOVE is ready to go .. we'll see he had a brace last game and holding him back .. backup is another DUDE tho if down to just him and Riley this could be trouble .. One thing can't happen is Riley goes DUDE and just single handedly gets the yards .. even playing field Nitney's D has the edge

Also battle of FG's PSU has a solid one .. ND's was injured earlier in the year and missed a bunch .. came up huuuuge last game I assume both kickers are solid but maybe ND K's groin is still nagging we'll see .. Nitney's punter is better .. ND's kick return last week was only good one of the year and Nitneys have 2 stronger returners in Tracy and Singleton .. maybe no edge but if there is one lean nitneys here .. 

I was left salty after the UGA game because in reality it was in fact UGA's inability to finish drives in + and sometimes +++ territory multiple times w the fumble and shut down deep in the RZ .. and maybe survive that if we just don't get the the strip/sack/ easy TD and kick return TD, both soooo avoidable .. all else equal it was the 2 plays that decided the game and we don't even get to the genius punt switch-a-roo maybe comes down to that final drive and ND wins anyway .. hope we keep the wacky stuff out and think PSU just has the edges needed .. and gettin a point n a half .. good luck!

BRIDGE PLAYYYYOFS ..

Home stretch .. Bridge Bowls 10-10 yuck .. hope we close this yr out w some BANGERS .. Good luck!

SEMI FINAL
PENN STATE +1.5

SEMI PROPS
Q.WISNER (TEX) UNDER 69.5 RUSH YDS
Q.EWERS (TEX) UNDER 242.5 PASS YDS

NATTY
OHIO STATE +115
ND / OHIO ST -7 (HYPO)

NATTY PROPS
JER SMITH MVP 24-1
JER SMITH MVP 7.5-1
TYLER WARREN MVP 26-1

IMO, UGA could have beaten SMU and BSU easily. 2 evenly matched teams, ND is very discipled team, turn-overs will decide the game. ND for some action. I see OSU to truck Texas. I have OSU beating Texas on offense, defense, and special teams (kicker is not very good). 

ND does have one very weak link C. Gray. Has made some big plays but gets targeted at corner 

Huge ND fan here. Have watched every play all season.

Rated failrly high by scouts but not buying it. 6 ft 180 and vulnerable to deep sideline passes. I expect the Lions go that way.

Leonard 90 yards passing last week not all on him. Irish can’t get quality wideouts to go there. Vanilla offense 

Well Bridge…. I was on ND all week…. But your analysis has made me pause….   Your track record is good… gonna just watch it.      

@Mskeets

well good luck miss k. I think there is a chance to end up with egg on my face again the margin for error is thin with defenses this good ..  I thought the UGA game would come down to a couple big plays and it certainly did and unfortunately it was two gigantic and IMO very lucky plays .. outside of that ND was never really close to scoring a TD the entire game, even the FG's were not particularly long drives 40-50 yards and good on them going 3-3 from decent distance 20-30 yards out .. other major turning points we had UGA fumble early on ruining a great drive gunna be 1st down at ND 10 instead its ND ball .. UGA good drive to the 9 but so far behind they have to go for it and lose otherwise can get 3 there .. UGA 4th n 2 at ND 42 they don't get it .. ND's 4th n 1 they get it on the punt sub play go on for the game sealing drive..

Not saying UGA was the better team by any means certainly didn't deserve to win but the critical breaks in the game really went one way by n large and just seems like if we rolled the dice over and over the pattern we'd end up with is UGA holding more scoring opportunities and certainly better / more likely to turn TD's .. ND's longest drive was 49 yds to kick a long FG .. UGA had drives 71 yds fumbled at the 10, 55 yds for a FG, 63 yds TD, 66 yds on downs at the 9 .. little more luck scoring on those and if UGA was then gifted the ball at ND's 13 yds line on a turnover and ran back a Kick for a TD well you get the idea UGA best win scenario is like 38-9 and they're at least a TD maybe 10 pt fav vs Penn State lol .. 

Allll that said Penn State can end up with better drives and ND can find ways to snuff them out / manufacture points .. or PSU could very well make horror show mistakes and blow it .. just think there's more edge with em .. 

GOOD LUCK TO US! 

@Bridge1

 I see your points.. I was impressed with ND lines vs GA…. And was not with P ST vs Boise… also the P ST quarterback did not look good either…   Running game is tough for P ST….  Gonna tease ND and Under with O St.    Let the chips fall.   

@Newtons Law

Yeah not a new problem for ND they had claypool and the TE guy a few guys years ago but yer right never really had the OC's or QB's to attract the good WR's there .. they finally bag a big name QB in Hartman but same issue no great targets to throw at and OC plucked to Bama last min and stuck w the TE coach being OC .. that guy was OC at WV and the offense was a horror show really bad sitch LY and it showed Hartman pre ssn top heisman sure thing high draft choice and then predictably tough year w their pass game and WR's all bail out pre-bowl game .. and Sammy goes UFA and practice squad... its the kinda feel bad story that every other coach is gunna point out to QB and WR recruits and portal prospects ..  

All that said tho they are a better team than they've been and have the OL's TE's, RB's still and Freeman has built a D that can challenge maybe any offense and considering the injuries getting dinged up he's got real depth there .. hiring Denbrock at OC and at least performing well passing at QB with what they have and making a playoff run is sooo huge .. LSU was a truly elite offensive juggernaut under him and looking around this year there's nothing close to what he had with that team sans maybe what we saw from OSU the last 2 games and don't think they'd hold up vs them this year if they beat Penn St .. but potentially a MASSIVE KEY can be turned by ND's offense next year and maybe just need a couple more DUDEs in the door .. not easy but I'd imagine they have plenty of funds coming in to make another natty run next year and recruiting pitch basically writes itself total script flipper from before with an OC that's pitched elite level offense with the right guys and already shown they aren't far off with the non elite QB/WR's they have now and yeah really like the potential there .. good luck!

Probably gonna do a Penn St +8.5/Ravens -2.5 teaser 

Bridge 

@TRAIN69

Good luck buddy yeah hearing now Abdul Carter a real GTD .. really want that guy in there .. 

It does feel overall like ND has been a pretty dinged up tho and here we are game 15 high level comp .. and idk maybe no actual impact as everyone has B2B roadies this week but PSU had a legit 2 extra days off and their schedule wasn't thrown off by the sugar bowl delay they got to watch their opponent comfortably .. ND got home I assume Thursday evening and then flew out Tuesday afternoon so like 7 or 8 days on the road and 4-5 at home depending how you look at it  .. PSU got home the other Tuesday and also left Tuesday .. does that matter idk maybe time together = team bonding always in the zone mentally .. it does feel like the quirkiness of it all would tend to catch up with a team at one point or another .. that was actually a concern with UGA will they be a off one beat after alllll the time off, new QB, etc.. then its ready set oh shoot terrorist attack please wait another day .. did that play a part idk but did feel like something was not quite right w them .. 

good luck traiiiiin .. 

@Mskeets

Yeah don't let me talk you out of what you're doing I mean you're watching and you have an opinion you like it .. play it .. the most learning I get is when I can just see how this should play out and I watch the game and say oh no that's diff or yeah spot on etc.. whenever I tail I just watch the game and all I learn is whether I was happy or mad that I tailed lol ..  and my bowl record is 10-10 I could say 'well yeah but hey we killed it on CLV!!' and of course I'd rather have that than not but that's just classic loser talk ..

can't disagree ND been money in the trenches the back end of the D realllly allows the front to have more guys stuffing the run .. Mich kinda the opposite they're so stout with the DL that they can put more back in coverage .. that's how one might go about being OSU .. but a major advantage putting more guys in one spot because yer so elite good in other spots .. and yeah then PSU realllllllly needs good play calling they have a great OC I think its a huge test in this game .. and the QB to not make any dumb mistakes .. 

The couple things I think we might see hamper ND is think they probably are the more dinged up team most grueling high level play right now and yeah as noted above the time off for PSU feels like an advantage / the shorter time for ND and travel makes me wonder if we don't see them off a beat in this one .. and beating UGA was so huge and historical for them they burned their sneak attack special teams play they showed us exactly what they're max effort is vs a very strong team .. will all that catch up and we see them on their heels a bit more in this one idk .. but it wouldn't surprise me .. 

Gotcha… just respect your opinion on college football…. 10-10 yes…. But your preseason analysis was very good… that’s what caught my eye to you….I will do my own… been doing this since I was 16… my girlfriends mom family bet w bookie in town.. I told em… I can pick a winner… and I did.   50$ for me…  in 1981… that was a sweet gift….  Gonna tease    … curious your return on money from your preseason wagers… just lookin for percentage     

@Mskeets

Pre-ssn was so good you can go back to the link below / last page .. that was for week 0/1 with all the plays together but the write ups and preview stuff was all posted was BRIDGE PRE-SSN thread i just put week 1/0 below for ya . 

idk the % return cpu died this year lost my workbook on exact numbers but here's the gist of the pre-ssn future plays Games of the year, futures, etc and I'm estimating on units won/lost .. there's a few things I didn't post and not all of em came up aces like the stuff I posted .. would also say the year was beyond freak lotta luck and would be very very unlikely I'll duplicate that kinda success across all the different pre-ssn futures plays like that ever again .. but for fun yeah net net the stuff posted was a totally INSANE like +40 ish units .. 

GAME OF THE YEAR
BRIDGE PLAYS 3-1.. +2 units .. 
SMALLER 8-3-1 .. +3 units

RSW SSN WINS 13-1 .. +12 units

CONF WIN
ASU 100-1 +10 units ..

CONF HEDGES net net +4 units
SMU +2 Unit
IOWA ST +1 Unit
SAM HOU +1 Unit
G.SO +1 Unit
INDY +1 Unit
Total Loser Duds maybe -4 units

HEISMAN 
I had Hunter 75-1 it was +7.5 units no hedge out I had a jeanty ticket I didn't post .. 
Heisman losers maybe -1.5 units total .. 

NATTY
SMU 500-1 .. hedged first round w Penn St prob nabbed +1 unit out of it ..

SSN PROPS .. bet 2 units net net think it lost -1.5 units .. 

MICHIGAN GOY Parlay Fade 12-1 .. it lost but I hedged vs OSU and it netted +2 units .. 

https://www.covers.com/forum/college-football/bridge-plays-week-1-103868951/2

I think those extra 2 days of rest are huge at this point.  This will be Penn States 16th game!  First time that has happened.  That's a lot of games.  Probably no impact on these kids but could create some sloppy play and dumb mistakes.  Speaking of dumb mistakes, Freeman is due for one or at least some terrible clock management so you have that going for you.  Great points!  Good luck!

@Stress

Can't disagree its def adding up for everyone at this point .. the diff tho is PSU really wasn't in much of a critical moment for any of the last 2 games kinda just taking care of business easiest path to this point .. BY FAR .. and ND every play had to be max effort one week ago .. such a MASSIVE WIN for them .. and the Indy game yeah very much a BRING IT game .. 

Will ND be a little "off" the top of their game idk, is there anything to point to historically that tells us what to expect in this spot? .. no ... we're in total rarified air, everyone exploring and pioneering best ways to handle their own very unique playoff scenarios .. im just going with my spidey senses at this point .. good luck STRESS!

PROPS

T.WARREN ANY TD -105 (FAN)

D.ALLAR OVER 11.5 RUSH -112 (FAN)

Tyler Warren unstoppable and the GO TO guy anytime they get near a TD .. we saw Drew Allar vs very good OSU D get sacked a few times but running the ball was a big part of the game .. ended 10 att's including the sacks but ended up +30 yards .. little more stability back there and we might get this much easier .. Def expect PSU to use all the tools in the belt here and Drew's ground game is one they will need picking up first downs .. good luck!

Like those and nice to see we ended up a step ahead when we posted this play PSU now the fav .. for now .. gulp lol .. LET'S GOOO!

SEMI FINAL
PENN STATE +1.5

Not much offense .. PSU gotta keep feeding VIKING the ball .. esp maybe around the goal line where its been a little tricky for em to get a friggin yard .. and maybe let Allar run for like 7 more yards!!! they do that they win this easy lol 

IN-GM

PENN STATE -7.5

Halftime live line -7.5 .. see notes above really felt like ND might be in a tough spot here with PSU off easy lead in and ND off B2B max efforts and quirky schedule .. we're seeing the team that was dinged up already kinda falling apart .. eh fine .. I hit this -2.5 earlier and eh why not taking -7.5 and let's go .. quick stop and FEED THE VIKING for a score and think its reallly tough for ND to catch up .. 

Looks like Love is more than 100% healthy…a small problem for us