BRIDGE PLAYYYYOFFS

The team speed Notre Dame is showing makes me think they will be the National Champ. Penn State looking the part of the slow plodders they are. Oh well. 

@robtri

 Eh well that guy healthy wasn't the problem .. Drew Allar healthy was the problem .. EESH .. 

Yeah…Drew Allar did not set the world on fire. I am salivating over ND+7 vs OSU. Cannot wait. Will be a bummer if OSU loses. 

you kinda lose all credibility when you bet on james franklin in a big game...

@Bridge1

 10-4.    If you don’t mind.  And I think you share all… but you and a few guys on here start your figuring in June/July … I’m gonna remember that and look you up on here… may drive down to Memphis and made a few wagers based on y’all’s efforts…. If you don’t mind.      

SEMI'S .. EESH .. PSU .. HOW .. 

SEMI FINAL
PENN STATE +1.5 
PENN STATE -7.5  in-gm .. why did i do that .. 

SEMI PROPS
Q.WISNER U69.5 RUSH YDS 
D.ALLAR OVER 11.5 RUSH -112 
Q.EWERS U242.5 PASS YDS 
T.WARREN ANY TD -105 

SEMI RECAP / NATTY TALK

PSU sheesh once again able to muck the game up in a way they could pull the win off at the end .. PSU WR's somehow finished with negative 3 yds and Allar just had nowhere to go .. we knew their WR's weren't very good and wallah and Allar didn't help them at all with his arm .. T.WAR looked like a total VIKING out there just mauling little kids with a battle axe .. we had a few chances to get the 'any TD' but allar short armed one into triple coverage lol and all those other plays with him lining up in Wildcat never really got there .. t'was the right idea though there were only so many ways they coulda scored he was the only non RB option .. also knew PSU would find themselves in situations where PSU would need a first down and Allar would have nobody to throw to and have to tuck it, even w a couple sacks that one landed easy enough .. 

Can't take anything away from ND's win we figured they'd be on the ropes and 'off a beat' in this game and you saw it first half PSU's ground attack gashing em and run D playing tough, pressure getting to leonard .. the 'dinged up' team seemingly getting more and more injured / Reilly heading to the concussion tent .. but holy smokes did they snap out of it literally on the final H1 drive when Leonard went out and came out firing in H2 .. they got the HEART OF A CHAMPION AWARD locked up .. 

OSU I thought had such a massive offensive drought with much of it from penalty killing drives .. the personal foul and various others .. then a pick then got stopped on 3rd n short .. a MAJOR problem all year for them I show them being in 3rd and 1-3 yard situations at one of the highest rates over 4 times / game and under 50% conversions .. thus this situation alone basically kills 2 drives per game if they don't roll the dice on 4th down .. Bucks MUST have an answer in this game to punching short yardage esp near the goal line .. Texas' D still did play a very solid game they play zone coverage and the big passees early from Howard were absolute precision bombs a split second later they're broken up or worse .. that didn't last all game and Horns covered up J-SMITH pretty well and had a really good pass rush, held bucks run game down decently well .. 

OSU DL is beyond championship level ELITE triple diamond platinum status and controlled the whole game on that side .. bringing pressure made things very very tough for Ewers and while he probably gets run outta town his gamer ability gave them the only chance they had .. they had success getting the ball out early and solid WR's helps with that .. Leonard doesn't quite have that and he's gotta be gamer level 1000 this week and kinda do it all to get them down the field again .. Huge for Horns to have had the TD's come outside the redzone as Bucks RZ D is almost unbeatable and struck big once again from the 1 yd line .. this seems like another potential problem for ND if they are dinkin n dunkin and think you'll see them basically take their shots on goal from distance in this gm and w kicker proven reliable in the playoffs maybe we see them opt for FG's with the game in the balance .. 

NATTY TALK .. 

Far and away most reliable thing in this game is that Buckeyes DL should control the trenches and cause disruptions if not outright havoc .. ND has to make the most of their rec targets, the OC no doubt will see Horns had success getting the ball out quickly and they MUST do that .. I don't see a real path for ND's run game to lead the way here they've been more/less bottled up twice now .. Leonard might still be the go-to in short yardage but huge risk letting him get hit by these guys .. you saw Arch come in one play last game and I think he mighta got concussed / lucky his hand was just touching the ball as he hit the ground cuz it was on its way out and he had the 'where am i' look after making such a huge first down for the team no cheering at all .. Reilly might have played thru one of those last game but he takes a tough hit in this game you could see a scenario where they allow Angeli to take over again and maybe for entire game .. Think they have to play risk/reward with Reilly and limit him to just picking up the short yds .. close game late Reilly might take his own risks but even w no sacks he might not hit his rush total .. if Bucks D gets home .. eesh .. might need 50+ yds rushing just to come close .. 

PROP RUSH YDS 

REILLY UNDER 37.5 RUSH (FAN) 

Seeing some Defensive MVP odds out there now .. we saw TJ TUI go GAME WRECKING last week vs UT with 2 sacks, one hurry, 5 stops on D .. Capt Jack is +150 for obvious reasons it feels way wayyyy too short of odds expecting he'll get the game winning strip sack scoop n 90 yd TD score again .. Caleb Downs is +250 and while he's such a key piece of the D functioning he doesn't oft have the MVP stats to show for it .. Cody Simon at 7.5-1 is another I'd consider he had MVP worthy games vs Oregon and Indiana with multiple sacks big stops and forced fumbles ..  If the game is not on the line again let's go w the guy that can wreeek the most havoc for the odds we're getting .. think thats TJT .. Local book has these up but must be getting them from somewhere else .. shop around for sure on these wherever they are widely avail .. 

Note that TJT did have a bad ankle late in the game but was taped up and kept going .. I suspect he get's summit fever in the natty and plays right thru any lingering ailments if there are any .. but something to note .. 

PROP DEFENSIVE MVP .. 

D.MVP TJ TUIMOLOAU 7-1
D.MVP CODY SIMON 7.5-1

Horns great job getting the ball out quick and scoring from distance throwing to their RB on those wheel routes .. they also hit their great REC TE on a few plays .. I suspect this will be much tougher with less threatening WR's and we know OSU's RZ D is extremely tough to score on .. I found one for -105 wouldn't be dying to lay over -110 for that .. think there's a risk OSU could be well ahead and maybe see some of the 2nd string D in there which gave up a late score to Tenn ... 

Call it a prop considering the smaller amount ..

NOTRE DAME TT UNDER 17.5

NATTY
OHIO STATE WIN +115
OHIO ST -7 (FAN HYPO)

PROPS

NATTY MVP
O.MVP JER SMITH 24-1
O.MVP JER SMITH  7.5-1
D.MVP TJ TUIMOLOAU 7-1
D.MVP CODY SIMON 7.5-1

RUSH
R.LEONARD UNDER 37.5

TM TOTAL
NOTRE DAME UNDER 17.5

NATTY TALK

Previously played Jer Smith for Natty MVP before he had the MASSIVE game vs Oregon .. sorta expected he might have one .. and played again right after for the 7.5-1 .. at 3.5-1 now its wayyy too low with so soooo many guys who could break the game wide open for a massive standout game .. Didn't post but I also got Egbuka 35-1 and Tate 100-1 for a few bucks .. we saw Henderson's ability to land a big play but he's oft limited by Judkins and they split the reps very very evenly .. Judkins is also their shorter hard driving yards go to guy likely to pick up the short TD's like he did vs Texas ..  

Horns played a zone heavy coverage like they have been all year and the order of the day was don't let Jeremiah Smith be targeted .. Howard hit some great passes to Tate and Egbuka .. ND in press man coverage though and J-SMITH might be a dude that is juuuust uncoverable we don't quite know how that will play out .. we can however look to just last year for some idea .. ND/OSU Marvin Harrison 1200 Yds on the year .. only 32 yds that game no deep balls and had their best CB's covering him .. Egbuka as #2 WR back then did still manage 96 yds vs what was a great coverage unit last year .. Egbuka been getting plenty of targets in every game this year proven he can get thru ND's D last year when Freeman put a plan to stop their very strong #1 WR Harrison .. UT gave themselves a decent change to win by limiting Smith .. Oregon did not .. you bet there's a plan coming and let's trust Egbuka to get his targets and yards this game .. I also like the idea of this because Egbuka is an OSU lifer and here he is ending the journey its fitting as a program they find ways to get him the ball and potentially boost his draft stock as he coulda transferred like other WR's did and been a true feature WR and coulda gone pro last year, stayed on to finish the job for the team .. J-SMITH true Fr and Carnell Tate True Soph have more moments to come .. 

You can get 49.5 at ESPN -134 but laying twice the juice for 4 yards .. gunna x the fingers ... 

Wouldn't blame anyone for taking Egbuka for the Natty MVP either seeing like 15-1's out there as noted I'm already there 35-1 .. 

Very tough to imagine they also don't give him a real look for a TD maybe give him or T-Henderson first dibs if possible .. 

PROP

RECEIVING

E.EGBUKA OVER 53.5 (MGM)

And similar idea to Egbuka we have TreVeyon Henderson another Buckeyes LIFER on his final year .. Led the team rushing as a FR w a 1200 yd breakout season .. Was splitting with Myan Williams in '22 but injured after 8 games and had to sit out the UGA semifinal game .. missed a few games last year also .. and hung on with the bucks while they brought in another top dude RB in Judkins with a clear goal of winning the Natty but he will He will depart having never beat Michigan .. The calls have been fairly distrubuted between Jud and T-HEN and T can get a TD receiving or rushing .. we saw Jud get the 2 easier ones near the goal last game T-HEN scored on the amazing screen play .. There is juuuust noooo wayyyyy they are not bending over backward to line up Henderson for a TD in this game .. harder to predict for Egbuka but I would expect they dial up a solid TD look for him too .. 

PROP

SCORING

T.HENDERSON ANY TD +100 (FAN)