I read in Athlon today that Army is converted to a shotgun passing offense. If that's the case, not sure, I would back the cadets in week 1, even against lowly ULM.
But starting this fall, Army’s opponents will no longer have to defend the under-center triple option. This spring, Monken is doing the unthinkable and moving his team to a primarily shotgun offense. He felt he didn’t have a choice in the wake of an under-the-radar NCAA rules change last year that eliminated blocking below the waist — known as cut blocking — anywhere but inside the tackle box.
LonghornHoosier
0
@Bridge1
I read in Athlon today that Army is converted to a shotgun passing offense. If that's the case, not sure, I would back the cadets in week 1, even against lowly ULM.
But starting this fall, Army’s opponents will no longer have to defend the under-center triple option. This spring, Monken is doing the unthinkable and moving his team to a primarily shotgun offense. He felt he didn’t have a choice in the wake of an under-the-radar NCAA rules change last year that eliminated blocking below the waist — known as cut blocking — anywhere but inside the tackle box.
Yeah I jumped the gun on that one figured what could go wrong lol .. probably quite a bit .. we'll see what happens my early read on ULM was not a good one but yeah could be a small bet slaughter ...
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@LonghornHoosier
Yeah I jumped the gun on that one figured what could go wrong lol .. probably quite a bit .. we'll see what happens my early read on ULM was not a good one but yeah could be a small bet slaughter ...
Think were getting a high price to sell the Bulldogs coming off an excellent season, romped straight thru the conf champ game O was the headliner but the D was really excellent esp pass D conf foes held to 50% comps whilst Haener was droppin about 73% on everyone .. But this is a diff team w out Haener, total star in every way since his huge breakout year in '21 and his game didn't tail off a lick with Deboer leaving to Wash.. His greatness was even more pronounced by the total turd the offense turned into when Haener was out and Fife was in .. under 200 yds in a loss @UConn.. very bad spot w the massive Boise game on deck but holy crap!!.. Broncos predictably throttled them 40-20 amidst their own QB turnover and a close one vs SJSU .. Haener came back and slaughtered everyone from then on .. Fresno has Fife back and bring in Mikey Keene and I think there's something to like in his stats at UCF but watching him LY I didn't like what I was seeing.. maybe Tedford gets the best outta him but think we can count on the offense being a lightyear behind w out from Hener .. and also lose alot of the best stuff over most of the roster .. Run game wasn't particularly strong LY vs tougher comp but lose a great RB in Mims 1300 yds 18 TD's.. great WR corps throttled Cropper, Remigio and Pope were stars and ret 1 outta the top 7. They get Gill from BC and some reinforcements from the portal but better be alot of gems in there to not be a great leap backward .. OL returns fairly in tact but the run yds tailed off huge vs the best D's and not a great sack rate either.. 4 guys back and Phil has just 1 guy on his 4 deep All con team .. D does return a decent load esp in the front 8 and have a few guys to like but lose easily their true bona fide star Perales who was a havoc MACHINE and we see a lotta teams ran the ball on em last year, need to be much better .. the secondary was 100% pure Colombian cocaine LY and retain a couple studs but safety unit wiped out w a few true stars gone .. Seems like they need ALOT of guys to step up all over the team to make up for the many steps backward.. also just because they didn't tail off after De Boer left doesn't mean a huge shake up doesn't reveal coaching deficiencies, Tedford inherited a special group LY and made it work like he did in '17/18 but he's not immune to a rebuilding year struggles like he had in '19 .. def gunna be earning those paychecks this year..
Books have Fresno almost neck and neck w Boise for the conf and huge RSW number and seems like too much relying on SP+ and the models' recent success and expectation the MW is a total gutter ball again.. I do count 4 very likely wins w FCS E.Wash, Kent St, Nevada, NM all at home .. but think there's a more decent mid section in the MW and I have UNLV as a wildcard w the coaching change.. books seem to be subtly agreeing they're a conf dark horse and RunninRebs gave Fresno all they could handle the last 2 years. @Utah State is a B2B roadie after a trip to Laramie .. @San Jose St is after Boise w Spartans off a bye .. maybe Utah State turns into a legit turd this year but think 2-3 potential upset spots.. then 5 tough games @Purdue @Arizona State, @Wyoming, Boise and @SDSU.. idk how strong the Boilers or Devils will be this year but nothing easy baggin P5 roadie wins and do like the tougher MW teams to all be better this year .. think its likely 6-7 wins w more of a stretch for 8.. gotta be pure fire to hit 9 wins .. I'm not seein it here Lloyd .. good luck!
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SEASON WINS
FRESNO ST UNDER 8.5 -110 (MGM)
Think were getting a high price to sell the Bulldogs coming off an excellent season, romped straight thru the conf champ game O was the headliner but the D was really excellent esp pass D conf foes held to 50% comps whilst Haener was droppin about 73% on everyone .. But this is a diff team w out Haener, total star in every way since his huge breakout year in '21 and his game didn't tail off a lick with Deboer leaving to Wash.. His greatness was even more pronounced by the total turd the offense turned into when Haener was out and Fife was in .. under 200 yds in a loss @UConn.. very bad spot w the massive Boise game on deck but holy crap!!.. Broncos predictably throttled them 40-20 amidst their own QB turnover and a close one vs SJSU .. Haener came back and slaughtered everyone from then on .. Fresno has Fife back and bring in Mikey Keene and I think there's something to like in his stats at UCF but watching him LY I didn't like what I was seeing.. maybe Tedford gets the best outta him but think we can count on the offense being a lightyear behind w out from Hener .. and also lose alot of the best stuff over most of the roster .. Run game wasn't particularly strong LY vs tougher comp but lose a great RB in Mims 1300 yds 18 TD's.. great WR corps throttled Cropper, Remigio and Pope were stars and ret 1 outta the top 7. They get Gill from BC and some reinforcements from the portal but better be alot of gems in there to not be a great leap backward .. OL returns fairly in tact but the run yds tailed off huge vs the best D's and not a great sack rate either.. 4 guys back and Phil has just 1 guy on his 4 deep All con team .. D does return a decent load esp in the front 8 and have a few guys to like but lose easily their true bona fide star Perales who was a havoc MACHINE and we see a lotta teams ran the ball on em last year, need to be much better .. the secondary was 100% pure Colombian cocaine LY and retain a couple studs but safety unit wiped out w a few true stars gone .. Seems like they need ALOT of guys to step up all over the team to make up for the many steps backward.. also just because they didn't tail off after De Boer left doesn't mean a huge shake up doesn't reveal coaching deficiencies, Tedford inherited a special group LY and made it work like he did in '17/18 but he's not immune to a rebuilding year struggles like he had in '19 .. def gunna be earning those paychecks this year..
Books have Fresno almost neck and neck w Boise for the conf and huge RSW number and seems like too much relying on SP+ and the models' recent success and expectation the MW is a total gutter ball again.. I do count 4 very likely wins w FCS E.Wash, Kent St, Nevada, NM all at home .. but think there's a more decent mid section in the MW and I have UNLV as a wildcard w the coaching change.. books seem to be subtly agreeing they're a conf dark horse and RunninRebs gave Fresno all they could handle the last 2 years. @Utah State is a B2B roadie after a trip to Laramie .. @San Jose St is after Boise w Spartans off a bye .. maybe Utah State turns into a legit turd this year but think 2-3 potential upset spots.. then 5 tough games @Purdue @Arizona State, @Wyoming, Boise and @SDSU.. idk how strong the Boilers or Devils will be this year but nothing easy baggin P5 roadie wins and do like the tougher MW teams to all be better this year .. think its likely 6-7 wins w more of a stretch for 8.. gotta be pure fire to hit 9 wins .. I'm not seein it here Lloyd .. good luck!
I'm not in love with the pick but we're getting substantially better odds at MGM than even the 13 at FD, I thought that was the highest we'd see .. Cowboys bring back nearly everything from LY and unfortunately that means they bring back their 2 QB's who nobody likes much .. really need them to step up and have some level of support passing the ball. If books were even a little confident in that angle or there was some good sounding new QB in the spring these odds would drop considerably so need to x our fingers a bit .. but rest of the team is in great shape, Wyoming had one of the lowest ret pro's in CFB last year and made absolute lemonade out of it .. think we can count on the D being even better Bohl talked alot about their new JC DB pickup Tyrecus Davis and he sounds like a great add to the secondary and every unit looks pretty solid on D .. they do lose 1 of the RB's and a couple OL's but don't think thats a problem at all and again turn the key with a little stronger pass game and things start clicking pretty well for em .. even have a really solid ace kicker back in Hoyland who went 13-14 LY and that's huge, we'll likely need at least 1 big game winner from him to make the champ game ..
Wyo with just 1 roadie in the first 6 games and think they can beat Fresno before the first big conf roadie to Air Force .. first conf roadie in mid october seems like a bad spot .. get a bye after AF and back on the road to Boise another tough game and back home for the rivalry w Colo State then @UNLV who might be sneaky decent this year .. but that's the tough stuff and if they can win that stretch and bag 2/3 of the big games they're in the driver seat to at least make the champ game big time rest of the conf schedule is NM @Nevada and Hawaii's trip to laramie in late November looks like a super slaughter ..
Big picture in the MW think Boise is a legit beast, secondary loses a couple very good guys but that offense is gunna be killer esp the run game with QB Green and 2 great RB's and hearing they might have a legit surprise beast FR coming in so maybe 4 headed monster run game plus all the WR's back this is lookin like their year for sure .. odds are just too low to take them and I really don't like Boise's schedule, the opponents and just the way everything sets up I think its just possible they tank at the wrong time and open a huge door to alot of other contenders .. AF with the new QB gives them a big downside risk and while the D looks good they lost DC Rudzinski LY (and did a great job at UVA!) and clearly were beatable vs a pound that azz style run game like wyoming had or Utah State had or Boise had .. SDSU needs to find some offense and not super enthused about their OC hire but he might maybe he's a surprise and turns Mayden into a real QB, if so I like them quite a bit .. think Fresno has a tough draw as noted above in their RSW pick .. would def shop the odds if playing Wyo or anyone else gunna need em as I think we really need Boise to underperform and not throttle the conf with HFA for the champ game .. Its a tall order but a dud year for the broncos leaves the conf fairly wide open IMO maybe even a real long shot like Colo State or UNLV or SJSU can fix a few of their problems from LY and be in contention late in the year for the champ game..
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CONF FUTURES
WYOMING MW 16-1 (MGM)
I'm not in love with the pick but we're getting substantially better odds at MGM than even the 13 at FD, I thought that was the highest we'd see .. Cowboys bring back nearly everything from LY and unfortunately that means they bring back their 2 QB's who nobody likes much .. really need them to step up and have some level of support passing the ball. If books were even a little confident in that angle or there was some good sounding new QB in the spring these odds would drop considerably so need to x our fingers a bit .. but rest of the team is in great shape, Wyoming had one of the lowest ret pro's in CFB last year and made absolute lemonade out of it .. think we can count on the D being even better Bohl talked alot about their new JC DB pickup Tyrecus Davis and he sounds like a great add to the secondary and every unit looks pretty solid on D .. they do lose 1 of the RB's and a couple OL's but don't think thats a problem at all and again turn the key with a little stronger pass game and things start clicking pretty well for em .. even have a really solid ace kicker back in Hoyland who went 13-14 LY and that's huge, we'll likely need at least 1 big game winner from him to make the champ game ..
Wyo with just 1 roadie in the first 6 games and think they can beat Fresno before the first big conf roadie to Air Force .. first conf roadie in mid october seems like a bad spot .. get a bye after AF and back on the road to Boise another tough game and back home for the rivalry w Colo State then @UNLV who might be sneaky decent this year .. but that's the tough stuff and if they can win that stretch and bag 2/3 of the big games they're in the driver seat to at least make the champ game big time rest of the conf schedule is NM @Nevada and Hawaii's trip to laramie in late November looks like a super slaughter ..
Big picture in the MW think Boise is a legit beast, secondary loses a couple very good guys but that offense is gunna be killer esp the run game with QB Green and 2 great RB's and hearing they might have a legit surprise beast FR coming in so maybe 4 headed monster run game plus all the WR's back this is lookin like their year for sure .. odds are just too low to take them and I really don't like Boise's schedule, the opponents and just the way everything sets up I think its just possible they tank at the wrong time and open a huge door to alot of other contenders .. AF with the new QB gives them a big downside risk and while the D looks good they lost DC Rudzinski LY (and did a great job at UVA!) and clearly were beatable vs a pound that azz style run game like wyoming had or Utah State had or Boise had .. SDSU needs to find some offense and not super enthused about their OC hire but he might maybe he's a surprise and turns Mayden into a real QB, if so I like them quite a bit .. think Fresno has a tough draw as noted above in their RSW pick .. would def shop the odds if playing Wyo or anyone else gunna need em as I think we really need Boise to underperform and not throttle the conf with HFA for the champ game .. Its a tall order but a dud year for the broncos leaves the conf fairly wide open IMO maybe even a real long shot like Colo State or UNLV or SJSU can fix a few of their problems from LY and be in contention late in the year for the champ game..
It's my largest conference title bet, and I'll add to the 13 with this 16. I think a tacit recognition is that Wyoming has owned the AFA option. It's like you said - if not Boise, who is it? We need Peasley not to suck and we will have a good shot at a hedge
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It's my largest conference title bet, and I'll add to the 13 with this 16. I think a tacit recognition is that Wyoming has owned the AFA option. It's like you said - if not Boise, who is it? We need Peasley not to suck and we will have a good shot at a hedge
Yeah buddy unfortunately have to nix the play because MGM bait n switched me, rejected the bet and re offered for a smaller wager amount giving me a couple mins to accept.. didn't realize it .. did a whole write up then check back and see no bet .. new odds 12-1 .. want to see if we can get a little better than the 13 at FD they also put me on kindof a short leash for the futures bets so can't play that for much anyway .. Think very likely champ game gunna run thru boise again and if the cowboys already have an ugly game on the road there then need the juiciest odds possible to squeeze anything out of it .. had that situation a few years ago w Hawaii think 10-1 or so and end up making the champ game @Boise all excited then realize pretty quick that I wasn't close to winning my bet, coulda hedged for not quite double my money so of course let it ride and blowout loss .. So yeah just another thing we need Wyo to do is not get blown out @Boise before playing the champ game @Boise lol ..
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@JozKnows
Yeah buddy unfortunately have to nix the play because MGM bait n switched me, rejected the bet and re offered for a smaller wager amount giving me a couple mins to accept.. didn't realize it .. did a whole write up then check back and see no bet .. new odds 12-1 .. want to see if we can get a little better than the 13 at FD they also put me on kindof a short leash for the futures bets so can't play that for much anyway .. Think very likely champ game gunna run thru boise again and if the cowboys already have an ugly game on the road there then need the juiciest odds possible to squeeze anything out of it .. had that situation a few years ago w Hawaii think 10-1 or so and end up making the champ game @Boise all excited then realize pretty quick that I wasn't close to winning my bet, coulda hedged for not quite double my money so of course let it ride and blowout loss .. So yeah just another thing we need Wyo to do is not get blown out @Boise before playing the champ game @Boise lol ..
GL Bridge!! I tailed you again on three RSW Futures as I have for the past 5 years now. We will win again 2023… I appreciate you and your research. None better in my book, have fun stay healthy.
Bridge for Prez
The impossible only takes longer….
2
GL Bridge!! I tailed you again on three RSW Futures as I have for the past 5 years now. We will win again 2023… I appreciate you and your research. None better in my book, have fun stay healthy.
Haha thx Wolf we'll see how they go .. think there's a few we can bag some better odds on but im near tapped on the RSW's .. one more wanted to get in before everyone gets their Steele preview and at least one shop not juicin us to death on it ... good luck
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@wolfeman3
Haha thx Wolf we'll see how they go .. think there's a few we can bag some better odds on but im near tapped on the RSW's .. one more wanted to get in before everyone gets their Steele preview and at least one shop not juicin us to death on it ... good luck
Had the rockets on the radar and think Phil's take helps me seal the deal on making a play .. Rockets came firing out at heavily juiced up 8.5's and BOL still has a 9.5 up there .. nobody tryin to lay big odds to nudge that under.. alas we find 8.5 wins for -115 at MGM, this was -110 not long ago.. think once the Phil Preview Horde is done tearin up their mags we'll see this settle around 9.. much tougher for rockets to win us a bet bagging 10 wins instead of 9 so if playing would look into it sooner than later ..
Think there's a ton to like about the team with the load coming back, lost a couple starters and a few stars but retain a bunch and alot of the depth .. think the main improvement is on O, OL had their starting center injured week before the season and think 1 other missed a few games and caused some real jumbling on the OL in season .. Run yds/carry dropped considerably and seemed like they there was just too much relying on Finn when this should be a real pound the rock first offense.. they look pretty shored up this yr w top 4 back from LY the center back and some talented xfers coming in.. also maybe a rebound year w the QB play Finn was banged up early in the season w an bad ankle sprain vs SDSU that nagged him all year and eventually missed a few games w the div locked up .. that and the OL jumble helps explain some of the rather inexplicable bad play we got from the Rockets down the stretch LY and also turnovers .. Buff was in hand and just found a way to lose -5 TO's .. -2 and -3 TO's in losses vs WMU and BG, Finn was out both games, better health makes this a much diff team .. injury to Finn could kill us but they do have an experienced backup in Gleason and he did great @EMU and at least not dead in the water if there's injuries again this year and big picture this looks like a huge rebound year on O .. Don't need to talk up the D not worried there at all they lose 1 real star and a couple starters but but its looking great on that side ... also have all the coaches back and they have some big goals in mind this year ..
Toledo prob doesn't have the strength of schedule to really make a NY6 case but first game @ILL is def a game they will approach as potentially winnable and try to start a huge run this year.. If they win that one then 8.5 looks very in the bag for us but im baking that in as an L for this bet .. think also the semi collapse of LY will be remembered and they'll play very hard down the stretch this time.. they locked up the div very early but good chance that NILL and EMU will be on their tail this year keeping the pressure on. Potential losses maybe w SJSU at home seems like a stretch .. maybe N.ILL has some shock value but winning @Toledo is a tall order (The Bridge Army will be rooting for the Huskies in that one!!!) .. they do have a stretch of 3 straight roadies in Oct after a very long stretch of home games, I'd be more concerned if the first roadie wasn't Umass .. There is a tough stretch after that @Ball, @Miami, Buff, EMU, @BG for the big rivalry then a bye before finale @CMU, another big game .. think if Toledo has the div locked up then going @CMU could be a dead spot, Chips will show up whether they are fighting for a bowl game or not .. Def not a dream schedule the way it unfolds but I think Tol is just far and away the top team if the O rebounds as I suspect and I don't see a loss to ILL and then 3 more losses unless something reallly drastic happens .. again .. gulp .. lol
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SSN WINS
TOLEDO OVER 8.5 -115 (MGM)
Had the rockets on the radar and think Phil's take helps me seal the deal on making a play .. Rockets came firing out at heavily juiced up 8.5's and BOL still has a 9.5 up there .. nobody tryin to lay big odds to nudge that under.. alas we find 8.5 wins for -115 at MGM, this was -110 not long ago.. think once the Phil Preview Horde is done tearin up their mags we'll see this settle around 9.. much tougher for rockets to win us a bet bagging 10 wins instead of 9 so if playing would look into it sooner than later ..
Think there's a ton to like about the team with the load coming back, lost a couple starters and a few stars but retain a bunch and alot of the depth .. think the main improvement is on O, OL had their starting center injured week before the season and think 1 other missed a few games and caused some real jumbling on the OL in season .. Run yds/carry dropped considerably and seemed like they there was just too much relying on Finn when this should be a real pound the rock first offense.. they look pretty shored up this yr w top 4 back from LY the center back and some talented xfers coming in.. also maybe a rebound year w the QB play Finn was banged up early in the season w an bad ankle sprain vs SDSU that nagged him all year and eventually missed a few games w the div locked up .. that and the OL jumble helps explain some of the rather inexplicable bad play we got from the Rockets down the stretch LY and also turnovers .. Buff was in hand and just found a way to lose -5 TO's .. -2 and -3 TO's in losses vs WMU and BG, Finn was out both games, better health makes this a much diff team .. injury to Finn could kill us but they do have an experienced backup in Gleason and he did great @EMU and at least not dead in the water if there's injuries again this year and big picture this looks like a huge rebound year on O .. Don't need to talk up the D not worried there at all they lose 1 real star and a couple starters but but its looking great on that side ... also have all the coaches back and they have some big goals in mind this year ..
Toledo prob doesn't have the strength of schedule to really make a NY6 case but first game @ILL is def a game they will approach as potentially winnable and try to start a huge run this year.. If they win that one then 8.5 looks very in the bag for us but im baking that in as an L for this bet .. think also the semi collapse of LY will be remembered and they'll play very hard down the stretch this time.. they locked up the div very early but good chance that NILL and EMU will be on their tail this year keeping the pressure on. Potential losses maybe w SJSU at home seems like a stretch .. maybe N.ILL has some shock value but winning @Toledo is a tall order (The Bridge Army will be rooting for the Huskies in that one!!!) .. they do have a stretch of 3 straight roadies in Oct after a very long stretch of home games, I'd be more concerned if the first roadie wasn't Umass .. There is a tough stretch after that @Ball, @Miami, Buff, EMU, @BG for the big rivalry then a bye before finale @CMU, another big game .. think if Toledo has the div locked up then going @CMU could be a dead spot, Chips will show up whether they are fighting for a bowl game or not .. Def not a dream schedule the way it unfolds but I think Tol is just far and away the top team if the O rebounds as I suspect and I don't see a loss to ILL and then 3 more losses unless something reallly drastic happens .. again .. gulp .. lol
Good stuff, Bridge. Wow these smaller school numbers must move fast. Just saw the Toledo pick and checked early this morning. It was over 9.5 at -150 so a no go for me. Crazy.
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Good stuff, Bridge. Wow these smaller school numbers must move fast. Just saw the Toledo pick and checked early this morning. It was over 9.5 at -150 so a no go for me. Crazy.
I see Toledo 8.5 -126 at Fan, still -115 at MGM others are heavier juiced at 8.5... BOL has 9.5 +130 over but that's the most extreme number and juiced the other way .. . I just suspect at some point the 8.5's will all be on the more expensive side if not move to 9 all together .. it does seem theoretically possible for Toledo to pull an upset vs Illinois and seems like an 8.5 win total is more/less in the bag if that happens .. but looks like still a few spots to shop around at for around what I played .. good luck
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@robtri
I see Toledo 8.5 -126 at Fan, still -115 at MGM others are heavier juiced at 8.5... BOL has 9.5 +130 over but that's the most extreme number and juiced the other way .. . I just suspect at some point the 8.5's will all be on the more expensive side if not move to 9 all together .. it does seem theoretically possible for Toledo to pull an upset vs Illinois and seems like an 8.5 win total is more/less in the bag if that happens .. but looks like still a few spots to shop around at for around what I played .. good luck
Thanks, Bridge. My one out is ridiculous and the other doesn’t have the game up yet. thanks for the heads up. Good luck to you. Thanks for your research.
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@Bridge1
Thanks, Bridge. My one out is ridiculous and the other doesn’t have the game up yet. thanks for the heads up. Good luck to you. Thanks for your research.
@wolfeman3 Haha thx Wolf we'll see how they go .. think there's a few we can bag some better odds on but im near tapped on the RSW's .. one more wanted to get in before everyone gets their Steele preview and at least one shop not juicin us to death on it ... good luck
Nah Brotha…thank you.
The impossible only takes longer….
2
Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:
@wolfeman3 Haha thx Wolf we'll see how they go .. think there's a few we can bag some better odds on but im near tapped on the RSW's .. one more wanted to get in before everyone gets their Steele preview and at least one shop not juicin us to death on it ... good luck
Got some totals tricking into BOL, first couple days of games and a select few others so far .. Circa sports has had week 0/1 up for a week or so, would def recommend checking them out on twitter .. think every book is anxious to test the waters and even w Circa being the guide I think we can say affirmatively there's a canary in the coal mine feel to the totals this year and nobody in a rush to be first in lol .. BOL is always good about tailing Circa quickly but seems that they're still just dipping their toes in although they do offer a decent max think 1k or so ..
My read on Circa is they wholesale slashed the big total numbers .. WKY/USF at 71 and drops to 66 for SMU/LATech which would normally be in the low 70's maybe .. UNC/S.Car at 61.5 think that would normally potentially break 70 any other year .. and that's the trend on down take a tree trimmer to what would normally be the biggest totals, only 4 games over 63 .. seems like incrementally smaller slashings down to the low 50's where its more gentle pruning.. there's a few very low totals like NU/RUT which was predictable but the average is still about 55 for all the games and only 4 games below 49 .. 2 are at 48, Iowa at 45 and NU/Rut at 40 ..
Big picture I'd say there are likely a few totals sub average that shoulda been trimmed much more and probably some in the high 50's that got kinda blindly trimmed too much and think there's a good opportunity if we can identify some good candidates .. I don't have the strongest beat on how all the new clock rules will impact clearly every game needs some adjustment levied and beyond that would say the more 1st downs you need to score the more the clock will bleed to get those points .. think some coaches will also be tempted to bleed the clock earlier than normal if say if they're ahead early Q4 just work that clock if up a couple scores .. some will just do their normal thing ..
One group that could really help us is the college fantasy crowd .. true they are huge nerds and our goals don't totally align but much respect to those guys they are VERY on the ball trying to pick up interesting pre-ssn reads and angles.. it isin't lock step w us but its not that far off and totals and TT's are right in their wheelhouse ..Suspect they have a few good ideas to share on the clock rules and how that might play out w individual teams and impact on their players productions etc ..
1
TOTALS TALK ..
Got some totals tricking into BOL, first couple days of games and a select few others so far .. Circa sports has had week 0/1 up for a week or so, would def recommend checking them out on twitter .. think every book is anxious to test the waters and even w Circa being the guide I think we can say affirmatively there's a canary in the coal mine feel to the totals this year and nobody in a rush to be first in lol .. BOL is always good about tailing Circa quickly but seems that they're still just dipping their toes in although they do offer a decent max think 1k or so ..
My read on Circa is they wholesale slashed the big total numbers .. WKY/USF at 71 and drops to 66 for SMU/LATech which would normally be in the low 70's maybe .. UNC/S.Car at 61.5 think that would normally potentially break 70 any other year .. and that's the trend on down take a tree trimmer to what would normally be the biggest totals, only 4 games over 63 .. seems like incrementally smaller slashings down to the low 50's where its more gentle pruning.. there's a few very low totals like NU/RUT which was predictable but the average is still about 55 for all the games and only 4 games below 49 .. 2 are at 48, Iowa at 45 and NU/Rut at 40 ..
Big picture I'd say there are likely a few totals sub average that shoulda been trimmed much more and probably some in the high 50's that got kinda blindly trimmed too much and think there's a good opportunity if we can identify some good candidates .. I don't have the strongest beat on how all the new clock rules will impact clearly every game needs some adjustment levied and beyond that would say the more 1st downs you need to score the more the clock will bleed to get those points .. think some coaches will also be tempted to bleed the clock earlier than normal if say if they're ahead early Q4 just work that clock if up a couple scores .. some will just do their normal thing ..
One group that could really help us is the college fantasy crowd .. true they are huge nerds and our goals don't totally align but much respect to those guys they are VERY on the ball trying to pick up interesting pre-ssn reads and angles.. it isin't lock step w us but its not that far off and totals and TT's are right in their wheelhouse ..Suspect they have a few good ideas to share on the clock rules and how that might play out w individual teams and impact on their players productions etc ..
Not sure the approach yet on the totals, BOL put out a few for week 1 FAN tailing and putting a few more out .. This one was on my list though ... Accounts of Fres' spring game def indicate Fresno's D was the clear winner and I'd expect them to be a fairly strong unit particularly toward the back end so while it seems like Harrell could be passing a bunch it shouldn't be a free for all .. Also suspect if Fresno couldn't run the ball effectively vs the tougher comp LY then no reason to think they will in this game .. Walters first HC game think he's got all summer to scheme up ways to keep Keene under control .. Fresno also never put up more than 20 in games w out or partially w out Haener, 17 vs USC, 14 UCONN, 20 Boise, 17 SJSU and even w Haener in there they were a bit on the slow side to snap the ball at least in competitive games .. maybe Boilers move a little quicker w Harrell but not sure that will break us think both will make the other struggle in spots and limit the explosive plays/points ..
SP+ kinda surprisingly would have put this at 49 LY in their ssn ending ratings and its the same number this year after model reshuffling .. that of course assumes average scoring and is pace adjusted .. we not only could see a below avg paced game here but the SP+ models are still assuming historical average scoring ~56 or so and wouldn't include the new clock impacts which apparently will nix out ~7 to 8 plays / game or about 1 average scoring drive ... I Can't even think about a bigger total play at this time but hit this for a decent 'smaller' amount as its one of just a handful of totals I was eyeing.. Think this winds up closer to the SP+ projection by kickoff, certainly don't think bettors will find a reason to pump this up any further so fairly low risk in that regard .. good luck!
0
SMALLER
FRESNO / PURDUE UNDER 54.5 (FAN)
Not sure the approach yet on the totals, BOL put out a few for week 1 FAN tailing and putting a few more out .. This one was on my list though ... Accounts of Fres' spring game def indicate Fresno's D was the clear winner and I'd expect them to be a fairly strong unit particularly toward the back end so while it seems like Harrell could be passing a bunch it shouldn't be a free for all .. Also suspect if Fresno couldn't run the ball effectively vs the tougher comp LY then no reason to think they will in this game .. Walters first HC game think he's got all summer to scheme up ways to keep Keene under control .. Fresno also never put up more than 20 in games w out or partially w out Haener, 17 vs USC, 14 UCONN, 20 Boise, 17 SJSU and even w Haener in there they were a bit on the slow side to snap the ball at least in competitive games .. maybe Boilers move a little quicker w Harrell but not sure that will break us think both will make the other struggle in spots and limit the explosive plays/points ..
SP+ kinda surprisingly would have put this at 49 LY in their ssn ending ratings and its the same number this year after model reshuffling .. that of course assumes average scoring and is pace adjusted .. we not only could see a below avg paced game here but the SP+ models are still assuming historical average scoring ~56 or so and wouldn't include the new clock impacts which apparently will nix out ~7 to 8 plays / game or about 1 average scoring drive ... I Can't even think about a bigger total play at this time but hit this for a decent 'smaller' amount as its one of just a handful of totals I was eyeing.. Think this winds up closer to the SP+ projection by kickoff, certainly don't think bettors will find a reason to pump this up any further so fairly low risk in that regard .. good luck!
Legit smaller bet thats a little tough to come by but Circa has it 17 currently so we might see it again .. I'd rather Coastal show up with Chadwell & Co but there's something to like about G-MC showing up running a new system and will create new bases to cover that the Bruins won't have seen yet. McCall is the ultimate competitor and trustworthy in every way w the ball in his hands and kicking off w a big name like UCLA is a perfect way for him to start to the season.. there's also a good bit returning on O and some additions every unit sounds pretty solid .. Think coastal's D should be in better shape than we remember, they werent particularly stout going into LY and things went awry down the stretch w the depth challenged.. idk the new DC but fair to say Staggs was a little hit and miss and then we see he wasn't invited to Liberty w Chadwell or get retained at Coastal and likely steep paycut at G-State.. wouldn't surprise me if Teal Nation was in better shape coach wise and personnel..
UCLA looks good to me this year and possibly a contender in the PAC but I don't think week 1 vs G-MC will be their best game w O figuring things out new QB / RB and their new DC comes in too .. The thing to dislike about this spot is how poorly Chip has shown up for some of the weaker G5 non cons .. they were obvi ready vs LSU the one year but since Chip's arrived they've had losses to Cincy and Fresno in '18, losses to Cincy and SDSU in '19, lost to Fresno in '21, horrific start vs BG LY and think its fair to say So.Bama let that one slip right thru their fingers .. they did beat LSU in '21 and pulverized Hawaii but there's a pattern of not showing vs the tough G5'ers and I'd def put Coastal in that category.
SP+ does put this closer to a 3TD win, which sounds pretty insane, but modles schmodles I think GMC will give us no shortage of shots to hang in this game either wire to wire or shoving it up the backdoor of Bruins backers .. would def not stretch to play under 17, only 1 local giving me that but that's what Circa has and and should be a little more available at some point .. the one other nice thing here is while maybe its a night game Coastal isin't walking into the 100 degree heat like some teams did in So Cal LY and also say UCLA doesn't exactly have the best home fans so bring on the big lights and big stage for our dude GMC, think good chance its a real fun game ..
0
SMALLER
UCLA / COASTAL +17 (LOCAL)
Legit smaller bet thats a little tough to come by but Circa has it 17 currently so we might see it again .. I'd rather Coastal show up with Chadwell & Co but there's something to like about G-MC showing up running a new system and will create new bases to cover that the Bruins won't have seen yet. McCall is the ultimate competitor and trustworthy in every way w the ball in his hands and kicking off w a big name like UCLA is a perfect way for him to start to the season.. there's also a good bit returning on O and some additions every unit sounds pretty solid .. Think coastal's D should be in better shape than we remember, they werent particularly stout going into LY and things went awry down the stretch w the depth challenged.. idk the new DC but fair to say Staggs was a little hit and miss and then we see he wasn't invited to Liberty w Chadwell or get retained at Coastal and likely steep paycut at G-State.. wouldn't surprise me if Teal Nation was in better shape coach wise and personnel..
UCLA looks good to me this year and possibly a contender in the PAC but I don't think week 1 vs G-MC will be their best game w O figuring things out new QB / RB and their new DC comes in too .. The thing to dislike about this spot is how poorly Chip has shown up for some of the weaker G5 non cons .. they were obvi ready vs LSU the one year but since Chip's arrived they've had losses to Cincy and Fresno in '18, losses to Cincy and SDSU in '19, lost to Fresno in '21, horrific start vs BG LY and think its fair to say So.Bama let that one slip right thru their fingers .. they did beat LSU in '21 and pulverized Hawaii but there's a pattern of not showing vs the tough G5'ers and I'd def put Coastal in that category.
SP+ does put this closer to a 3TD win, which sounds pretty insane, but modles schmodles I think GMC will give us no shortage of shots to hang in this game either wire to wire or shoving it up the backdoor of Bruins backers .. would def not stretch to play under 17, only 1 local giving me that but that's what Circa has and and should be a little more available at some point .. the one other nice thing here is while maybe its a night game Coastal isin't walking into the 100 degree heat like some teams did in So Cal LY and also say UCLA doesn't exactly have the best home fans so bring on the big lights and big stage for our dude GMC, think good chance its a real fun game ..
Thanks Bridge for looking at the Toledo game. Caught a guaranteed middle. At one out took over 9.5 at +134 and second out took under 9.5 at +130. Season hasn’t started and showing green already. Lol
1
Thanks Bridge for looking at the Toledo game. Caught a guaranteed middle. At one out took over 9.5 at +134 and second out took under 9.5 at +130. Season hasn’t started and showing green already. Lol
Prob kick myself for this one but big picture think AM easily has the talent load to take them to the playoffs and have their hands on a few other gears and levers that make could turn a very talented team into a champ level team .. at 60-1 I can risk a few unknowns like whether the O will kinda be vastly overhauled in a good way and the D make more moderate but necessary improvements .. Hard to say anything for sure w these guys but there is an avenue open and I also like the schedule its not overwhelmingly tough in my view .. think A&M is one of 4 possible contenders for the East w Bama likely not as strong this year and that opens the door for us .. obvi that's just the start of the dragons we need to slay but what were betting on is that A&M will 'Arrive' this year as a contender with a task that looks much less daunting than it sounds in the pre-ssn .. Wouldn't touch the RSW if you paid me but for these odds it won't sting the wallet so much as the ego if its another week 1 G5 struggle vs New Mexico lol .. we'll see .. good luck!
0
NATTY
TEXAS A&M 60-1
Prob kick myself for this one but big picture think AM easily has the talent load to take them to the playoffs and have their hands on a few other gears and levers that make could turn a very talented team into a champ level team .. at 60-1 I can risk a few unknowns like whether the O will kinda be vastly overhauled in a good way and the D make more moderate but necessary improvements .. Hard to say anything for sure w these guys but there is an avenue open and I also like the schedule its not overwhelmingly tough in my view .. think A&M is one of 4 possible contenders for the East w Bama likely not as strong this year and that opens the door for us .. obvi that's just the start of the dragons we need to slay but what were betting on is that A&M will 'Arrive' this year as a contender with a task that looks much less daunting than it sounds in the pre-ssn .. Wouldn't touch the RSW if you paid me but for these odds it won't sting the wallet so much as the ego if its another week 1 G5 struggle vs New Mexico lol .. we'll see .. good luck!
Caesars comes out with the suggested Circa total which is pretty huge with alot of the week 1 tots struggling to hit mid 50's .. but easy to narrative out why that might be w WKY's OC Arbuckle coming in and Cam Ward still there .. they WR unit got throttled w the best stuff leaving but they were rollin deep at that spot LY and have a few back plus bring in a few .. also Nakia Watson became a star for them LY .. think the counter here is the O was capable LY but so many botched drives and opportunities w Ward that I'm not sure they are scoring efficiently off the bad in week 1.. Arbuckle schemes up the downfield passes and Ward struggled hitting the big shots LY so maybe things go a bit gangbusters for a while not sure its every drive .. Rams D is not bad either, kept them close in a few games and bring back a pretty solid group of DB's and 1 of their 2 very good pass rushers .. would say if the Rams O takes off then they could def cover the huge spread and if Ward is screwin around making mistakes again then maybe a very close game ..
On the flip side we have Norvelle trying to get his offense going to everyone's amazement they STUUUUUUNK BAAAAD last year .. I don't see a mass correction at OL 3 return and 2 tackles replaced from a Mizzoo career backup 5 starts in 4 years but played in quite a few .. also a JC from Lane College wherever that is .. also have their far and away top RB Avery Morrow suspended on assault charges in the spring return week 1 doesn't sound good, no production back at RB if he's out, potential Fr stud and NDSU xfer could pick up the slack but Morrow was a legit workhorse dude they def needed this year .. Phil missed that news .. The thing I wanted to see was a new OL coach or some fundamental change they gave up 59 sacks LY most in CFB and the teeth of the Wazzoo D w is one of the better DE duo's w Stone and Jackson back both should be all con material again TY.. Wazzo's D does project to be worse (as usual), DC couple units look unproven but we heard the Coogs D was in trouble the last few preview cycles and at some point gotta trust Dickert whose done nothing but put solid D's on the field after covid year and they do have a decent group of DB's and DE's to work with ..
Not a single CSU game toppled 59 last year, 2 blowouts vs Mich and Boise were close but the D was decently stout all year and obvi the O was a wreck .. word from the CFF crowd is we should expect more passing from Norvell this year we'll see ... for all the O hype Wazzoo games only went over this total 3 times Oreg and Wash were a couple shootouts, blew out Stan big.. beat the Rams 38-7 LY at home, playing in Fort Collins this year .. just seems like too many ways the big offensive game narrative the total is based on doesn't get there, Fan duel had theirs posted a few days ago and its at 56.5 now, think market is def gunna tilt Czr's that direction so would check it out sooner than later if interested .. good luck!
0
SMALLER
WASH ST / COLO ST UNDER 59.5 (CZR)
Caesars comes out with the suggested Circa total which is pretty huge with alot of the week 1 tots struggling to hit mid 50's .. but easy to narrative out why that might be w WKY's OC Arbuckle coming in and Cam Ward still there .. they WR unit got throttled w the best stuff leaving but they were rollin deep at that spot LY and have a few back plus bring in a few .. also Nakia Watson became a star for them LY .. think the counter here is the O was capable LY but so many botched drives and opportunities w Ward that I'm not sure they are scoring efficiently off the bad in week 1.. Arbuckle schemes up the downfield passes and Ward struggled hitting the big shots LY so maybe things go a bit gangbusters for a while not sure its every drive .. Rams D is not bad either, kept them close in a few games and bring back a pretty solid group of DB's and 1 of their 2 very good pass rushers .. would say if the Rams O takes off then they could def cover the huge spread and if Ward is screwin around making mistakes again then maybe a very close game ..
On the flip side we have Norvelle trying to get his offense going to everyone's amazement they STUUUUUUNK BAAAAD last year .. I don't see a mass correction at OL 3 return and 2 tackles replaced from a Mizzoo career backup 5 starts in 4 years but played in quite a few .. also a JC from Lane College wherever that is .. also have their far and away top RB Avery Morrow suspended on assault charges in the spring return week 1 doesn't sound good, no production back at RB if he's out, potential Fr stud and NDSU xfer could pick up the slack but Morrow was a legit workhorse dude they def needed this year .. Phil missed that news .. The thing I wanted to see was a new OL coach or some fundamental change they gave up 59 sacks LY most in CFB and the teeth of the Wazzoo D w is one of the better DE duo's w Stone and Jackson back both should be all con material again TY.. Wazzo's D does project to be worse (as usual), DC couple units look unproven but we heard the Coogs D was in trouble the last few preview cycles and at some point gotta trust Dickert whose done nothing but put solid D's on the field after covid year and they do have a decent group of DB's and DE's to work with ..
Not a single CSU game toppled 59 last year, 2 blowouts vs Mich and Boise were close but the D was decently stout all year and obvi the O was a wreck .. word from the CFF crowd is we should expect more passing from Norvell this year we'll see ... for all the O hype Wazzoo games only went over this total 3 times Oreg and Wash were a couple shootouts, blew out Stan big.. beat the Rams 38-7 LY at home, playing in Fort Collins this year .. just seems like too many ways the big offensive game narrative the total is based on doesn't get there, Fan duel had theirs posted a few days ago and its at 56.5 now, think market is def gunna tilt Czr's that direction so would check it out sooner than later if interested .. good luck!
Not gunna get that number after I punched it down but Fan still has a 59.5 which isin't a bad number IMO thought they were getting over their skis going a few points higher than what Circa came out with and Czrs confirmed that putting this at 56.5 .. Think UVA's offense could be another disaster w the THROTTLED WR Unit after having a great WR unit LY even w Armstrong at QB they stuuuunk bad couldn't figure anything out OL was a mess, bad run game .. I suspect the supposed offensive mastermind Tony Elliot wasn't a very good OC as he managed a major O decline after becoming full time OC at Clem and got off on the wrong foot big time w the horror show LY topped off w the shooting at year end just a nightmare and not a surprise they put a ton more into the portal than they got back.. Seems like Elliot's running it back w very few changes like sticking w OC Kitchings.. did get a new OL coach from Stan who helped Tree's offense find a whole new level of hell the last 2 years even w QB McKee.. think its the same for new QB Tony Muskett from Monmouth, guy was awesome to watch in the FCS covid year solid gamer QB, just wish he didn't portal to these turds.. Other coaching anomalies include The Sp tms coordinator returning, maybe because Phil ranked them #127 last year and coaching the RB's .. I didn't see ST's or RB's in his bio he coached WR's at Army and other spots and guessing he was coaching the WR's LY and had to shift to something easier.. O analyst promo'd up to WR coach.. hard to believe but think its maybe an uglier year on offense.. Think UVA could put a few points up in this one but their drives should be pretty brutally time consuming w alot of running from Kobe Pace and Hollins and Muskett has legs too I don't expect them to be very fast operators snapping the ball either ..
The thing to like from UVA is the D, Rudzinski nailed it year 1 coming from AF and they look possibly better this year even w the loss of their star CB who went to FSU to win a few games before an NFL career .. Tenn is a monster on O but some questions have to linger after losing Hooker, OC Golesh who was the playcaller LY and lost other very good pieces of the O.. Tenn's D has to be better this year thin DB group LY lotta guys got experience, and no way they weren't able to start landing a few portal grabs on that side .. I'll say if Vols D can't handle these guys then the D will lose them quite a few games this year .. UVA's D helps us just a little and should be tough to hit this total ..
0
SMALLER
UVA / TENN UNDER 61.5 (FAN)
Not gunna get that number after I punched it down but Fan still has a 59.5 which isin't a bad number IMO thought they were getting over their skis going a few points higher than what Circa came out with and Czrs confirmed that putting this at 56.5 .. Think UVA's offense could be another disaster w the THROTTLED WR Unit after having a great WR unit LY even w Armstrong at QB they stuuuunk bad couldn't figure anything out OL was a mess, bad run game .. I suspect the supposed offensive mastermind Tony Elliot wasn't a very good OC as he managed a major O decline after becoming full time OC at Clem and got off on the wrong foot big time w the horror show LY topped off w the shooting at year end just a nightmare and not a surprise they put a ton more into the portal than they got back.. Seems like Elliot's running it back w very few changes like sticking w OC Kitchings.. did get a new OL coach from Stan who helped Tree's offense find a whole new level of hell the last 2 years even w QB McKee.. think its the same for new QB Tony Muskett from Monmouth, guy was awesome to watch in the FCS covid year solid gamer QB, just wish he didn't portal to these turds.. Other coaching anomalies include The Sp tms coordinator returning, maybe because Phil ranked them #127 last year and coaching the RB's .. I didn't see ST's or RB's in his bio he coached WR's at Army and other spots and guessing he was coaching the WR's LY and had to shift to something easier.. O analyst promo'd up to WR coach.. hard to believe but think its maybe an uglier year on offense.. Think UVA could put a few points up in this one but their drives should be pretty brutally time consuming w alot of running from Kobe Pace and Hollins and Muskett has legs too I don't expect them to be very fast operators snapping the ball either ..
The thing to like from UVA is the D, Rudzinski nailed it year 1 coming from AF and they look possibly better this year even w the loss of their star CB who went to FSU to win a few games before an NFL career .. Tenn is a monster on O but some questions have to linger after losing Hooker, OC Golesh who was the playcaller LY and lost other very good pieces of the O.. Tenn's D has to be better this year thin DB group LY lotta guys got experience, and no way they weren't able to start landing a few portal grabs on that side .. I'll say if Vols D can't handle these guys then the D will lose them quite a few games this year .. UVA's D helps us just a little and should be tough to hit this total ..
NATTY TEXAS A&M 60-1 Prob kick myself for this one but big picture think AM easily has the talent load to take them to the playoffs and have their hands on a few other gears and levers that make could turn a very talented team into a champ level team .. at 60-1 I can risk a few unknowns like whether the O will kinda be vastly overhauled in a good way and the D make more moderate but necessary improvements .. Hard to say anything for sure w these guys but there is an avenue open and I also like the schedule its not overwhelmingly tough in my view .. think A&M is one of 4 possible contenders for the East w Bama likely not as strong this year and that opens the door for us .. obvi that's just the start of the dragons we need to slay but what were betting on is that A&M will 'Arrive' this year as a contender with a task that looks much less daunting than it sounds in the pre-ssn .. Wouldn't touch the RSW if you paid me but for these odds it won't sting the wallet so much as the ego if its another week 1 G5 struggle vs New Mexico lol .. we'll see .. good luck!
Wow Outstanding Play…Absolutely value on A&M. Mahalo plenty Bridge.
The impossible only takes longer….
0
Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:
NATTY TEXAS A&M 60-1 Prob kick myself for this one but big picture think AM easily has the talent load to take them to the playoffs and have their hands on a few other gears and levers that make could turn a very talented team into a champ level team .. at 60-1 I can risk a few unknowns like whether the O will kinda be vastly overhauled in a good way and the D make more moderate but necessary improvements .. Hard to say anything for sure w these guys but there is an avenue open and I also like the schedule its not overwhelmingly tough in my view .. think A&M is one of 4 possible contenders for the East w Bama likely not as strong this year and that opens the door for us .. obvi that's just the start of the dragons we need to slay but what were betting on is that A&M will 'Arrive' this year as a contender with a task that looks much less daunting than it sounds in the pre-ssn .. Wouldn't touch the RSW if you paid me but for these odds it won't sting the wallet so much as the ego if its another week 1 G5 struggle vs New Mexico lol .. we'll see .. good luck!
Wow Outstanding Play…Absolutely value on A&M. Mahalo plenty Bridge.
hahaaaa yeah thx wolf, we'll see .. think we'll know pretty quick if A&M is one of those carbon fiber subs or something more nuclear.. Think A&M is nearing a history defining crossroads for their program, and they'd be in tatters w another botched meltdown season of dudes leaving and have UT comin in all hot n heavy ready to bully their little punk brother again .. at least that would be the image stuck w recruits and fans for a long time .. if I'm the AD I'd have my HC hitman on speed dial ready to take Jimbo out if I smelled any kinda crappy offense this year and makes sense they'd bring in a true vet hand like Petrino so the O didn't totally collapse if they needed to execute a mid season coaching search ... hope Jimbo can avoid the coup and a whole lot more, we'll see .. Phil has em nearly toppin the 'most improved list' and top of the 'surprise list' so c'mon phil predictions!!!!!!
Speakin of value, you get in on those 40-1 Carson Beck futures?.. Saw 10-1 at a few shops the other day.. think they're seein what we're seein .. woop woooop!!
0
@wolfeman3
hahaaaa yeah thx wolf, we'll see .. think we'll know pretty quick if A&M is one of those carbon fiber subs or something more nuclear.. Think A&M is nearing a history defining crossroads for their program, and they'd be in tatters w another botched meltdown season of dudes leaving and have UT comin in all hot n heavy ready to bully their little punk brother again .. at least that would be the image stuck w recruits and fans for a long time .. if I'm the AD I'd have my HC hitman on speed dial ready to take Jimbo out if I smelled any kinda crappy offense this year and makes sense they'd bring in a true vet hand like Petrino so the O didn't totally collapse if they needed to execute a mid season coaching search ... hope Jimbo can avoid the coup and a whole lot more, we'll see .. Phil has em nearly toppin the 'most improved list' and top of the 'surprise list' so c'mon phil predictions!!!!!!
Speakin of value, you get in on those 40-1 Carson Beck futures?.. Saw 10-1 at a few shops the other day.. think they're seein what we're seein .. woop woooop!!
PRE-SSN ROUNDUP v6.25 Think that's everyone .. Have to nix WYO 16-1 MW, MGM pulled a bit of a bait n switch after we shook hands .. big name book .. small time hands ..
BRIDGE PLAYS: OSU @ NOTRE DAME +8.5 KENT STATE @ UCF -31.5 L'VILLE @ GA TECH +9.5 ARKANSAS @ BAMA -18 UTAH ST/ IOWA -17.5 FLA STATE / LSU -1 BAMA / LSU +8.5 COLO @ TCU -20
SMALLER: GEORGIA / KENTUCKY +24 E.CAROLINA @ MICH -35.5 OHIO ST / PENN ST +10.5 MICH ST / WASH -10.5 MICH / OHIO ST +3.5 UCLA / COASTAL +17 IOWA @ PENN ST -10 PENN ST / MICH -1.5 FSU / MIAMI +16.5 CLEMSON / FSU +3 BAMA / TENN +8.5 MTSU @ BAMA -37 ULM / ARMY -7.5 MINNY / NEB +8 USC / WASH +7 USC @ OREG -2 UVA / TENN UND 61.5 FRESNO / PURDUE UND 54.5 WASH.ST / COLO.ST UND 59.5
REG SSN WINS: RICE OVER 4 -130 CAL OVER 4.5 -140 UTEP OVER 5.5 -110 UCONN OVER 4.5 -130 TOLEDO OVER 8.5 -115 ARIZONA OVER 4.5 -122 WISCONSIN OVER 8.5 -110 GEORGIA TECH OVER 4.5 +120 WASHINGTON UNDER 9.5 -134 OREG. STATE UNDER 8.5 -142 E.CAROLINA UNDER 6.5 -134 CINCINNATI UNDER 5.5 -150 LOUISVILLE UNDER 8.5 -140 KENT STATE UNDER 2.5 -118 FRESNO ST UNDER 8.5 -110 KENT STATE UNDER 3 -125 APP STATE UNDER 7 -115 N.TEXAS UNDER 7.5 -130 UAB UNDER 5.5 -110
CONF FUTURES TCU B12 16-1 UTAH PAC 6-1 CAL PAC 100-1 UCLA PAC 16-1 NAVY AAC 40-1 DUKE ACC 50-1 UTEP CUSA 16-1 MIAMI ACC 20-1 NMSU CUSA 30-1 AKRON MAC 50-1 FLA ATL AAC 10-1 GA TECH ACC 200-1 ARIZONA PAC 100-1 N.ILLINOIS MAC 25-1
PRE-SSN ROUNDUP v6.25 Think that's everyone .. Have to nix WYO 16-1 MW, MGM pulled a bit of a bait n switch after we shook hands .. big name book .. small time hands ..
BRIDGE PLAYS: OSU @ NOTRE DAME +8.5 KENT STATE @ UCF -31.5 L'VILLE @ GA TECH +9.5 ARKANSAS @ BAMA -18 UTAH ST/ IOWA -17.5 FLA STATE / LSU -1 BAMA / LSU +8.5 COLO @ TCU -20
SMALLER: GEORGIA / KENTUCKY +24 E.CAROLINA @ MICH -35.5 OHIO ST / PENN ST +10.5 MICH ST / WASH -10.5 MICH / OHIO ST +3.5 UCLA / COASTAL +17 IOWA @ PENN ST -10 PENN ST / MICH -1.5 FSU / MIAMI +16.5 CLEMSON / FSU +3 BAMA / TENN +8.5 MTSU @ BAMA -37 ULM / ARMY -7.5 MINNY / NEB +8 USC / WASH +7 USC @ OREG -2 UVA / TENN UND 61.5 FRESNO / PURDUE UND 54.5 WASH.ST / COLO.ST UND 59.5
REG SSN WINS: RICE OVER 4 -130 CAL OVER 4.5 -140 UTEP OVER 5.5 -110 UCONN OVER 4.5 -130 TOLEDO OVER 8.5 -115 ARIZONA OVER 4.5 -122 WISCONSIN OVER 8.5 -110 GEORGIA TECH OVER 4.5 +120 WASHINGTON UNDER 9.5 -134 OREG. STATE UNDER 8.5 -142 E.CAROLINA UNDER 6.5 -134 CINCINNATI UNDER 5.5 -150 LOUISVILLE UNDER 8.5 -140 KENT STATE UNDER 2.5 -118 FRESNO ST UNDER 8.5 -110 KENT STATE UNDER 3 -125 APP STATE UNDER 7 -115 N.TEXAS UNDER 7.5 -130 UAB UNDER 5.5 -110
CONF FUTURES TCU B12 16-1 UTAH PAC 6-1 CAL PAC 100-1 UCLA PAC 16-1 NAVY AAC 40-1 DUKE ACC 50-1 UTEP CUSA 16-1 MIAMI ACC 20-1 NMSU CUSA 30-1 AKRON MAC 50-1 FLA ATL AAC 10-1 GA TECH ACC 200-1 ARIZONA PAC 100-1 N.ILLINOIS MAC 25-1
Thanks Bridge for looking at the Toledo game. Caught a guaranteed middle. At one out took over 9.5 at +134 and second out took under 9.5 at +130. Season hasn’t started and showing green already. Lol
@robtri
Hey bud saw a local book just put up their RSW's with some wacky backward odds maybe like what you were seeing .. I'm fairly sure what they did was copy BOL's RSW's / odds and what they didn't realize was BOL (unlike most shops) doesn't just put the over wins/odds on top of the under wins/odds .. for them the more juiced number goes on top .. BOL very annoying to do that and I'm sure they've upset a few people who thought they were playing an over when they played an under!! .. anyway the error pattern was every juiced under at BOL has the odds flipped .. def compare the RSW's to an established book or BOL and see if its the same for you. I found a few deals I wouldn't have otherwise played im sure there's some others .. I can't play for big bucks there but happy to have a few hundo down on Bama U10.5 +140, Ark U7 +130, Colo U3.5 +145, there's a few more I'm gunna check again .. My very strong suggestion is to not to middle, my book could very rightfully claim an error and wipe the bets out .. they did that LY to me .. reversed the 'UGA to beat TCU by 41+ pts' .. instead of 30-1 it was 99-1 .. woulda won 5k, still won w a re bet but w the lower odds lol .. the point is I wouldn't assume any of those are locked in until they are paid .. good luck!
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Quote Originally Posted by robtri:
Thanks Bridge for looking at the Toledo game. Caught a guaranteed middle. At one out took over 9.5 at +134 and second out took under 9.5 at +130. Season hasn’t started and showing green already. Lol
@robtri
Hey bud saw a local book just put up their RSW's with some wacky backward odds maybe like what you were seeing .. I'm fairly sure what they did was copy BOL's RSW's / odds and what they didn't realize was BOL (unlike most shops) doesn't just put the over wins/odds on top of the under wins/odds .. for them the more juiced number goes on top .. BOL very annoying to do that and I'm sure they've upset a few people who thought they were playing an over when they played an under!! .. anyway the error pattern was every juiced under at BOL has the odds flipped .. def compare the RSW's to an established book or BOL and see if its the same for you. I found a few deals I wouldn't have otherwise played im sure there's some others .. I can't play for big bucks there but happy to have a few hundo down on Bama U10.5 +140, Ark U7 +130, Colo U3.5 +145, there's a few more I'm gunna check again .. My very strong suggestion is to not to middle, my book could very rightfully claim an error and wipe the bets out .. they did that LY to me .. reversed the 'UGA to beat TCU by 41+ pts' .. instead of 30-1 it was 99-1 .. woulda won 5k, still won w a re bet but w the lower odds lol .. the point is I wouldn't assume any of those are locked in until they are paid .. good luck!
Update 1 .. looks like the website caught the error, all the odds look right now .. but my action is still active at least for now! ..
That's the other thing, pretty much at any point now they can come back and sack my wagers, I'd obvi have more to say about it if they did it much later like after they win .. but end of the day books have a way to get back at annoying bettors who try to stick it to em on errors esp if they'd just prefer you take your business elsewhere .. But yeah error caught and if they nix'd the bets in the next few days and I wouldn't bother asking them about it .. good luck!
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@robtri
Update 1 .. looks like the website caught the error, all the odds look right now .. but my action is still active at least for now! ..
That's the other thing, pretty much at any point now they can come back and sack my wagers, I'd obvi have more to say about it if they did it much later like after they win .. but end of the day books have a way to get back at annoying bettors who try to stick it to em on errors esp if they'd just prefer you take your business elsewhere .. But yeah error caught and if they nix'd the bets in the next few days and I wouldn't bother asking them about it .. good luck!
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I tailed you again on three RSW Futures as I have for the past 5 years now. We will win again 2023… I appreciate you and your research. None better in my book, have fun stay healthy. 
Wow Outstanding Play…Absolutely value on A&M. Mahalo plenty Bridge. 
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