BRIDGE PRE-SSN 2023

good luck this year bridger...you clearly are doing the work and are a huge asset to the forum.  

Lmfao ..Bridge said “Golden Hurricane maybe taking a Golden Shower every game this year but I'd def have ECU on upset alert in that spot .. yeah road to 7 is real tough .. ” 

the golden shower? Hoo brah, that’s some dirty pool. 

CONF FUTURES

TEXAS STATE 75-1 (CZR)

Finally have some sun action at a place I can put something down .. There's a few teams to like in the Fun Belt this year Troy, So Bama, Coastal and maybe App or Marshall .. were not getting odds that I think are worth taking at least not a Caesars who I found to be sharper than the average book this year .. Troy, So-Bama sitting at 2.8 and 3 respectively .. far cry from the 10x and 50x bombs we dropped on those boys last year .. all the others are under 7-1 .. I only see So Bama as likely taking significantly big step up as a team this year but it could just be a conference with a number of tough teams but none that look like unbeatable monsters .. That's what let's us hit a super long shot here the Bobs show up w UIW's HC, OC and DC and they bring a ton of those players with them along with quite a few portal adds .. Malik Hornsby coming in from Arkansas seems exactly like the kinda QB's that made The Word's offense so explosive and think he can make this offense work .. not as excited for TJ Finley coming in but will be interesting to see Fun Belt D's stopping a QB thats 6'7 260lb and can really move .. It does seem like Kinne could draw up an offense w the weapons he has that can shock the conference, we'll see .. The D I'm not as sure about likely a decent talent gap between TX.ST and the better D's in the conf but even w out the top talent the right DC can make things real tricky and UIW did that last year Phil notes #1 in TFLs which doesn't happen w talent alone .. clearly this team will need to lead w offense and we saw UIW show up in the Fargo Dome and throttle the Bison which just never happens and they had no answer to what they were doing .. I think we can trust that it could work a level or so up in the Sunbelt .. 

Schedule is not easy either the Bobs aren't gunna be squeaking or sneaking in the champ game this year .. @S.Miss, @ULL, ULM, Bye, Troy, G.So, @Coastal, @Ark St, So.Bama .. ideally we can get to the finally w the Jags and they're playing for a ticket to the champ game but man O man nothing easy at home or on the road this year, gotta X our fingers that things come together in a big way which at this point sounds a little crazy but I was saying the same thing about So Bama last year taking them 50-1 and only thing in their way was coming up 4 points short vs Troy or that woulda very likely cashed .. Fun Team, Fun Odds, Fun Belt Baby GO BOBS!!!

SEASON WINS

UMASS OVER 2 -120 (BOL) .. Gulp .. 

Hit this Over 1.5 at a local which had rather exorbitant odds attached and I'm on for something at 2 .. if I had to choose I'd go with 1.5 and pay the juice, but its not widely available and might as well post a number that is at least still getable .. Think very likely Umass lands 2 and we'll have enough shots on goal for a 3rd win .. I made a few 'at least a tie' plays LY and we got alot more than our money back on all those but I get it, we gotta grit the teeth a little to hit this one.. 

The O really killed them last year and that was driven by not only having no good QBs but having 3 bad ones playing throughout the year .. Olsen hit 50% was the best and he's back but good news they added a few to like this year, Taisun Phommachan is on his 3rd team (at least) and he looked decent in the spring game .. They have a true FR who I think would have started last year and looked fairly in command of things lot to like w him .. the dude I like is Carlos Davis from Western Carolina, real gamer type dual QB that looked good .. think he or Taisun will be the QB. So they go from 0 QB's to 2 or possibly 3, this should improve the offense dramatically along w an OL that returns nearly in tact w guys who've been starting multiple years and have a good looking and fairly deep RB room .. WR's are questionable but they did bring a few in with some pedigree as recruits and a few were retained from LY ..  hard to judge anyone from LY w so many dud QB's.. 2nd yr OC had some good teams at Ferris State, went to the natty in '18 and was a fairly run heavy team w a gamer QB and think the roster is in line w what the offense is trying to be and should be much more explosive w a run game and downfield passing .. The D was really hamstrung by the run yds / carry teams didn't have to pass much which is too bad because the pass D was not bad giving up just 58% comps and Umass surprisingly ranked very high in 3rd down stops LY .. Don Brown does lose his 2 best Havoc dudes but not as worried since his good blitz schemes will just be drawn up for other guys this year should still have that production .. they do have 8 starters back and bring in a fairly large number of P5 xfers and if they can cut deep into the horrible yds/carry LY this D could really surprise at least comparably speaking .. improvements w the QB play and run D will determine how the season goes should be decently improved at both.. 

We don't know where the wins will come from exactly except should have 1 locked in vs FCS Merrimack, they weren't bad in the NEC LY but they lose some of their best players and woulda been a struggle to beat UMASS LY as they were rated around where Stonybrook was who Mass handled pretty easy .. Other shots are vs New Mexico and Ark State both at home .. NM will be off their big game vs NMSU and taking the rather long trip to Amhurst w Wyoming on deck .. Ark St will be sammiched between S.Miss and Troy .. Beyond that @NMSU in the opener, @Army, Miami OH, @E.Mich, @Liberty and Uconn .. the thing to like is almost of these are in pretty ugly spots for the opponent sammiched between much more important games .. Army has LSU then Air Force, Liberty 100% showing up vs in state little team ODU and have a huge game vs Utep on deck .. Miami OH is after (real) Miami and huge rivalry w Cincy on deck .. UMass caught E.Mich and Ark St off guard last year very nearly won both.. TAMU maybe won easy but they had their pants all the way down .. very likely we see a few teams play down a notch or three and Minutemen should find ways to capitalize this time .. good luck!

Found U Mass over 1.5 bit took the -235…double gulp!

@robtri

yeah bud must be at the same place .. think mine was -230 and fairly low limit .. can't complain since its credit .. thats why I suggested O2 w reasonable odds I wouldn't suggest putting down ~700 to win 300 5 months from now but yeah think we will bag that one .. Outlook is so much better in terms of the QB's and portal adds even the recruiting was decent (for them) in '21 w a top 100 class .. the schedule looks way more accommodating than LY they started 4/5 on the road 4 drubbings and the FCS game at home total demoralizer and still had a stretch of 3 straight roadies on the back end and had new coaches changing directions it was a total mess.. only 6 roadies this year and 2 bye weeks I think that's very helpful .. totally underrated angle too w these Indy teams they always pop up on a schedule looking like an easy rest stop and easy to trap an opponent in that situation esp at home .. Conn did that LY big time surprising alot of teams at home .. 3-37 last 4 years and I'd say not much reason to keep Don around if they dont really see a shift in how competitive they are this year .. we'll see!

CONF FUTURES

GA.SOUTHERN SBC 18-1 (BOL)

Couple books dropping their SUN odds w JMU now officially not eligible for the champ game .. DK also has 18-1, Caesars sharp again w 12x which is not enticing .. the lowest I'd suggest playing is 15x and that should be gettable at least as more books come out w their numbers. There's a few areas of uncertainty w the Eagles this year that we need turned around (bigly) to have a shot so no sense reaching at lower odds for this play .. 

The good news is were confident in the offense, Helton year 1 shows up to this triple option transition project and had them well coordinated from week 1, unearthed a gem in Van T who went from 2 yr starter at Buff w rather pedestrian numbers to turning in 4200 yards last year .. boom .. and even w a run/pass split of ~33% the run game was solid and tacked on 1800 yds .. Van T is gone and there's a risk things don't work as well but there's reason to suspect Helton can gain actually improve this O in yr 2, maybe significantly. Van T was epic but limited mobility / didn't contribute on the ground, only hit 61% and went 27-16 .. Davis Brinn coming in from Tulsa is more proven as a passer than Van T was and a better scrambler and would be huge if he threw fewer picks.. they also added a few other experienced and decently rated prospects for a fairly well stacked QB room.. RB room is stacked w best 2 back and high rated RS FR Terrence Gibbs, the offense gets much better if they can balance out the run a bit more this year. OL returns 3 from a unit that gave up an unreal 1% sack rate and portals in a starter and has a deep bench.. Wasn't tough to recruit WR's to this O either via the portal. The O surprised us in a few games LY like Neb, JMU, App State pulling off some epic wins but fell short vs stronger D's like UAB, So.Bama Marshall, ULL .. I think the min improvement needed is attainable and they could go well beyond that.

The D is the big question and a total liability last year, opponents could run the ball successfully all day and they didn't have the size or the depth or the experience or the playmakers or the coordination to force teams to pass .. We're hoping new DC can help, Eagles bagged DC Brandon Bailey (from Buff) and he's a real fast riser in the coaching world up from the D2 ranks to assistant under Mike Elko at A&M to DC at Buffalo LY and turned them around producing a very good and stingy pass D and produced a few legit stars in the process.. he didn't quite solve Buff's run D issues but they did improve.. G.SO has a much bigger and deeper DL to work with this year, some good LBs and like at Buff, Bailey is bringing in a number of P5 xfers looking at DB.. Might not click right away but starting off as one of the worst Ds in CFB LY its not hard to make up ground, they could shave a full TD off of what they gave up LY and still be a fairly bad D.. lotta ways they can get to 'not that bad' and maybe give us a shot .. really like our chances if they can make a big jump to being merely close to an average D in the conf.. 

The hard stuff is Coastal, @JMU and a tricky and tough final stretch @TxSt, @Marsh, ODU, @App State w 3/4 roadies at the end .. G.So lost to Coastal in the final seconds, great shot vs So.Bama slipped away, Beat app state and JMU in epic shootouts .. this year's schedule is a little trickier w the road games but a decently improved Eagles team could def slip into the champ game and if they got there I wouldn't peg them as big dogs vs Troy or So.Bama since they'll likely show up w the better offense.. good luck!

BRIDGE PLAYS:
OSU @ NOTRE DAME +8.5
KENT STATE @ UCF -31.5
L'VILLE @ GA TECH +9.5
ARKANSAS @ BAMA -18
UTAH ST/ IOWA -17.5
FLA STATE / LSU -1
BAMA / LSU +8.5
COLO @ TCU -20

SMALLER:
GEORGIA / KENTUCKY +24
E.CAROLINA @ MICH -35.5
OHIO ST / PENN ST +10.5
BAMA / OLE MISS +15.5
MICH ST / WASH -10.5
UCLA / COASTAL +17
IOWA @ PENN ST -10
PENN ST / MICH -1.5
FLA.ST / MIAMI +16.5
MICH / OHIO ST +3.5
CLEMSON / FSU +3
BAMA / TENN +8.5
MTSU @ BAMA -37
MINNY / NEB +8
ULM / ARMY -7.5
USC / WASH +7
USC @ OREG -2
UVA / TENN UNDER 61.5
FRESNO / PURDUE UNDER 54.5
WASH.ST / COLO.ST UNDER 59.5

REG SSN WINS:
RICE OVER 4 -130
CAL OVER 4.5 -140
UTEP OVER 5.5 -110
UMASS OVER 2 -120
UCONN OVER 4.5 -130
TOLEDO OVER 8.5 -115
ARIZONA OVER 4.5 -122
WISCONSIN OVER 8.5 -110
GEORGIA TECH OVER 4.5 +120
WASHINGTON UNDER 9.5 -134
OREG. STATE UNDER 8.5 -142
E.CAROLINA UNDER 6.5 -134
CINCINNATI UNDER 5.5 -150
LOUISVILLE UNDER 8.5 -140
FRESNO ST UNDER 8.5 -110
APP STATE UNDER 7 -115
N.TEXAS UNDER 7.5 -130
KENT ST UNDER 2.5 -118
KENT ST UNDER 3 -125
UAB UNDER 5.5 -110

CONF CHAMPS:
B12 TCU 16-1
PAC UTAH 6-1
PAC CAL 100-1
PAC UCLA 16-1
PAC ARIZ 100-1
ACC DUKE 50-1
ACC MIAMI 20-1
ACC GTECH 200-1
MAC AKR 50-1
MAC N.ILL 25-1
AAC FAU 10-1
AAC NAVY 40-1
SUN TX.ST 75-1
SUN GA.SO 18-1
CUSA UTEP 16-1
CUSA NMSU 30-1

HEISMAN:
CARSON BECK 40-1
GRAYSON MCCALL 250-1
TANNER MORDECHAI 125-1

NATTY:
TEXAS 30-1
OHIO ST 8.5-1
TEXAS A&M 60-1

FUN BETS:
WK1: CMU ML/U53.5.. ~10-1
CONF CHAMPS: UGA, CLEM, WISCO.. 43-1
CONF CHAMPS: WKY, TOLEDO, BOISE.. 17-1
CONF CHAMPS: WKY, UGA, BOISE, TOLEDO, TEXAS, SMU.. 498-1
BAMA PAR-FADE: TEX +7.5, @A&M+8.5, TENN+8.5, LSU+8.5.. 12-1

RSW .. 

ARKANSAS UNDER 7 -125

I played this at a few spots and have enough to call it a play at this point after recently finding maybe the last decent odds at a local book .. unfortunately I think you'll get about -150 at this point, DK maybe best at -145 and im not gunna suggest taking that just yet, maybe wait and see if better odds show up or something close or could get creative w alt win totals if/when those show up.. I do think hogs could tie this number but seems tough to actually lose money and lotta roads lead them to just eeking into a bowl..  if a few of the things I mention below catch up w them then hard to count out a legit meltdown type of year.. 

Hogs once again commit schedule suicide w a tough early stretch that technically has 4 straight roadies and not the easiest lead in w BYU as a potential look ahead spot w conf on deck .. then its @LSU, TAMU (N), @O'MISS, @BAMA and finally back home for MISS.ST w Bulldogs off their bye .. I don't think anyone has a 4 roadie stretch like that even counting neut games .. TAMU / Ole Miss look like tough outs this year esp early in the season w big hopes still in tact.. Hogs finally get their a bye after the rough run but then its back on the road @Florida, Auburn, and easy one vs FIU before tough rivalry w Mizzoo in the finale.. Hogs have 3 lock wins and call BYU a very likely win .. but I think good chance they are 0-4 on that road gauntlet and after possibly being demoralized need to go 4-0 vs MISS.ST, @FLA, AUB, MIZZOO to beat us..

Hogs lost a ton of guys to the NFL and the portal in December and looked like a real scramble trying to line up replacements .. lotta turnover w the roster and the coordinators and seems like a general lack of talent or proven players in multiple units .. they had to replace the DC after LY's debacle but won't be easy going from a coverage heavy 3-man to 4-man and seamlessly changing the personnel for that .. Kendal Briles also snuck out to TCU and we'll see if Dan Enos can pick up the slack but that doesn't seem like an even trade esp w so much other turmoil .. Quite a few units look like a guessing game Hogs REC corps was throttled and maybe bagged some potentially good TE's but WR looks real spotty. Lost their 2 awesome LB's and good NB for a hodgepodge of backups and replacements .. the 3-man D also left them dangerously low on DL's, they added some guys but filling another DL spot w SEC caliber dudes aint easy .. DB unit is sorta in tact but oft put 6 DB's in coverage only slowed the bleeding but also allowed teams run all over them.. gotta be wayyy better using just 5 DB's this yr .. 3 stars from the OL gone, not as concerned keeping the good OL coach.. it would be a real disaster if they aren't very strong on the OL again.. that along w KJ and elite RB room does give them hope but KJ is a legit injury risk, he was out 2 LY both losses and maybe Crisswell from UNC backup fame is decent but it could be a real drop off if KJ gets hurt again .. 

@Bridge1

 Really a solid play on the hogs in my opinion. Going to be very difficult for them to win 8 games this season.

sept 23-oct 21 is absolutely murderers row. Then they have to go to Florida.

@steponaduck

 Found Ark U 7.5 -165 so took it immediately…Tnx Bridge

@robtri

 My other out was Ark u 6.5  -101…pays to shop

Arkansas also lost their DC Odom to UNLV...now HC...He was the former HC at Mizzou...They better hope Jefferson does get injured.   

@steponaduck

Thx bud that was one of my earliest targets too but never hit it real big just added to it over time .. Think the kicker now is I've warmed up a bit to Ole Miss and TAMU and we got them in a chokehold if they go 0-4 in that ugly stretch  .. also don't see any big letdown spots BYU could / should be improved they'll be off their FCS game ..  Miss State gets W.Mich and then a bye, Arnett 2 weeks off basically maybe play their best conf game of the yr, Hogs will be getting back home after a month of SEC roadies.. hard to find an uglier home game spot .. Auburn gets w Ark between Vandy / NMSU .. UF has UGA / LSU but in the swamp and Billy likely needs that W for a bowl .. Mizzoo heated rivalry they're showing up no matter how the year goes .. just no quit in that schedule .. and just a bad omen everyone jumpin ship after the season, if anyone was expecting a surprise year we wouldn't have seen that I don't think ... lot to not like!!!

@robtri

Good stuff bud yeah hate layin monster odds because anything is sorta possible in CFB, but think everyone surprised if Ark can bag 8 wins .. 

@LonghornHoosier

Yep.. mentioned the DC change and really one of my least favorite moves .. had Odom running that 3-2-6 scheme and had it workin great in '21.. idk all the ins-n-outs but seems like you really need the right dudes for that or it doesn't work, clearly didn't LY but the roster had been geared to that after a few years .. Ark bringing on UCF's co-DC Travis Williams, appears to be his first gig as the primary DC and assume he's very set on a 4-2-5 scheme so that'll be a challenge .. also has a 1st yr co-DC who seems more experienced w managing the secondary, Williams was managing LB's before.. nothing about that transition feels good to me.. Ole Miss in the same boat Arkey was in w the wacky same scheme and changing DC's .. think that was a big part of why we heard Kiff was threatening to leave saw the prob brewin and needed the AD to kick in money for a real DC .. idk if Pete Golding will work out but 5 years running bama basically himself should be pretty flexible on the scheme change.. that feels wayyyy better to me .. def wouldn't rule out the Rebs making a big move this year .. we'll see!

Couple more RSW's on the radar and either the juice is a bit much or just on the cusp thinkin about it.. 21 plays deep already so might end up passing but all are at least somewhat interesting ..   

Tulane U9.5 .. I'd play for reasonable juice, were off a miracle year replacing both coordinators and lost some highly productive pieces of last years epic miracle turnaround team .. Ole miss on the schedule and quite a few other potential stumbling blocks .. 

JMU U8.5 .. another w the juice too high I'd consider for normal odds .. the Dukies benefited from an underperforming opponents in the SUN LY and schedule looks considerably tougher this go round .. whatever effects there were from 'sneaking up' on teams LY they prob won't get this time maybe just the opposite ..certainly laid the wood LY but recall they lost to G.SO LY and nearly G-State they weren't immune from stumbling .. and like Tulane they lost a few really key pieces .. can get 8 with even odds I'd rather just see if 8.5 normal odds showed up or pass on it .. 

Kentucky O6.5 .. odds blasted to the -150's or more pretty early .. still some questions w their D but man I really like the prospects of a big turnaround on offense .. still iffy on the D even though I trust the DC .. 

Rutgers O3.5 .. odds -150 at MGM is too much and not as keen taking them at 4 .. they did bag 5 wins in '21, 4 wins LY and had 2 close losses vs Neb and MSU .. they get a free square vs Wagner and start off the year w a great home stretch .. NU, Temple, VT .. have Mich St, @Indy mid ssn.. MD is a stretch but final game they prob have a bowl locked up and lead in vs PSU, @NEB, Mich..  I could just see Tua and other guys calling it a season early after a big Mich home game let the next gen play the finale on the road vs Rutgers, think that's a very likely dead spot .. think its 1 sure thing win and 6 decent shots to win 3 more .. don't think they need to be all that improved to hit this number and if they play well in a few games shouldn't have a problem .. this is actually still on my 'maybe' list .. 

UCF U7 .. odds are okay think this one just misses the cut .. 8 wins and even the easy games vs the other B12 newbies will be a challenge, they're all def showing up to play no matter what their record is .. not to mention an incalculable drop in power rating if Plum gets hurt again .. 

BUFF U6.5 .. odds aren't bad -135 at BOL .. think this also just misses the cut .. The bothersome thing is they lose their DC right around spring and have to promo from within and think the guy was probably instrumental in getting them turned around LY .. they do have a few stars back and its possible they could cover this win total but besides Kent State nothing in the MAC looks like a guaranteed win, possible we even see Akron finally able to scrap this year .. 

Not plugging a service here but our former dude has some free previews for G5's and Indy's so far.. pretty sure they are all free .. I think they're a pretty good read, extra resource, etc ....  I've made most of my pre-ssn plays already but I def cross check all my ssn wins, futures and general outlook against what he's saying.. always like to see when were on the same page lol .. good luck!

https://megalocks.co/season-previews/

@Bridge1

 love reading your stuff man.  You and a few others here in NCAA forum are very good reads.

I forgot entirely to bet the UConn over, and I even wrote it on a sticky note.  Now it is at 5 but only -115 juice.  Probably gonna leave it alone I wanted that 4.5 lol

That QB Zion that Mora stole from just about every power 5 school has a shot to win them even more games this year I think.......he won me some money last year for sure.

BOL

@JDD

Good stuff .. Def keepin my eye on the QB comp, Phil put Zion at QB3 I think they're a long way from figuring it out .. Roberson was doing 7 on 7's to start the spring, idk if he ever went full go or not.. I think Maine xfer Fagano ensures we get a good comp, he was the OC's QB there and sounds like he picked everything up quick in the spring .. ton of potential considering the QB situation LY and they were still very effective running when every team was basically lined up to stop it .. And not terrible on D either, the DC left a week before the ssn started Mora took over had to change the scheme around and after the tough early slate they were alot better than expected .. lot back on that side .. lot to to like .. GO UCONN!!

Oh side note on ***RICE*** .. lost one of their 2 good receivers Rozner .. still like the prospects of them out performing again but yeah really liked them having JT-D and the 2 proven solid pass catchers  .. just a heads up .. 

@Bridge1

 It is hard not to root for them man.........I like Mora, and everyone likes a good dog story

DIV FUTURES

SEC-WEST OLE MISS 22-1 (CZR)

Getting down to the last few conf futures.. might have to hold yer nose a bit, however I do kinda like this one .. 

Easy to forget how close the Rebs were to hitting this LY entering a real tough back end of the schedule and came out the gate firing vs LSU on the road up 17-3 before the Tigers rampaged back en route to their division win .. Rebs took care of A&M in a B2B road spot and were still sitting at 8-1 late in the year w Bama coming to town and were absolutely having their way with the Tide.. Wouldn't call it a miracle but it was a very Saban-esq close call win, just getting the right breaks at the last minute .. EPIC game .. prety much the definition of a Bubble Burst game they got blown out vs Ark on the road even put up 700 yds of offense +200 net somehow lose big .. lost in a close one in the Egg bowl, total no show in the bowl game ..  Kiff's goals are to win the SEC and in that respect it would make sense for he and the staff to be well into their Portal Season after that bama game .. Kiff wasn't as close in '21 late in the ssn but had a great year losing to only Bama and Auburn before Kiff blew off the bowl game .. feels as a program they've been very close .. 

Rebs lose some really good players top 2 WR's and a number of guys on D and while Judkins at RB is The Truth I'd like to have Evans as a backup again, we'll see if Bentley or a prospect rises up .. competing in the SEC ya can't be getting so-so RB play for 5-10 plays a game .. but there's still alot to like and Kiff's model of shaking everything up in the portal has inched them closer to competing, the D has made significant strides the last 2 years and maybe adding Pete Golding at DC is a switch that takes them up a notch .. the offense is their real ticket and like Tenn they lead w a very strong run game, need Dart or Sanders or Howard to deliver better QB play than LY, convert on the 4th n' shorts but also great if they don't find themselves in so many of them.. 

SEC looks pretty tough this year and wouldn't say 1 team projects to be far and away unbeatably better than everyone and think that's a good setup for grabbing a long shot like the Rebs, think we just need them in the mix late in the year and unlike many other years where Bama puts a chokehold on the division we might see dangerous teams knocking each other out late and give us a shot .. We get an early moment of truth w B2B divisional games @Bama and LSU early and also have a very very likely loss @UGA on the schedule late in the year .. but the middle of the schedule is very manageable, Ark, Bye, @Aub, Vandy, TAMU, @Miss St in the finale.. think one scenario is the division comes down to 2 or 3 2 loss teams and Rebs may just be on top by virtue of only 1 divisional loss .. Maybe unlikely but Ole Miss could also just do us a favor and wax Bama and LSU early and put us firmly in the driver seat w a pretty easy road from then on .. either way think they're in a good spot to compete .. SEC Conf odds are at 40-1 and feels like they'd be big dogs vs UGA in an SEC champ matchup esp after a likely loss during the year so the odds really dictate us to just take 20+ for the division .. good luck!

CONF/DIV FUTURES

SEC-EAST KENTUCKY 75-1

Keep it short, I wanted to get something on Kentucky for the season given the potential for a turnaround, not in the mood to put another RSW out there for rediculous odds so gunna go for cheap thrills ..  really like the prospects for an offensive turnaround and fingers xx'd the D is a little stronger I think the coordinator will find ways to make them good .. I reallllly like the way the schedule sets up giving them at least makes them an interesting long shot, and yeah its a super long when we have @UGA, Bama, Tenn on the schedule and I really don't like @Miss State sammiched between Tenn and Bama or the late spot going @S.Car after Bama .. but the schedule does set up for a couple giant killer spots as Tenn's lead in goes TAMU, @BAMA, @UK .. Bama goes LSU then @Kentucky which seems a bit dangerous .. obvi the big odds also bake in UGA having an absurdly easy schedule w maybe just 1 difficult road game .. assuming UK can't pull off the win vs UGA then them to wax the rest of the conf and we'll need Bulldogs to land a freak loss similar to what nearly happened LY vs Mizzoo and a 2nd loss which could come vs Tenn .. its very far fetched for sure .... Conf odds are 150-1 but think UK could be sizable dogs and we'd be hedging that down to maybe 30-1 .. plus .. if they win the division I'm good just get me paid lol .. 

CONF FUTURES

B12 IOWA STATE 50-1

Before laughing recall K-State was 50-1 LY at when the numbers dropped .. Idk what TCU was but mighta been 80-1 at one point .. Baylor the year before had an RSW of 5.5 I think you coulda probably found a 100-1 somewhere .. Word to the wise, don't waste money on slim odds in the B12 .. Iowa State's D was very close to elite LY models have no prob putting em in the top 10 and hard not to agree .. they lose a legit NFL DUDE in Will McDonald and the other guys they lose were good but nothing irreplaceable .. the D kept them in almost every game but the offense was putrid and final record 4-9.. 1-9 in conf .. if they can add 1 score to their miserable point totals then 1-9 coulda shaken out to 7-2.. they only really lost bigger to Oklahoma and TCU in the finale. I expect the D to take a step back but Heacock is an ACE DC and will run the D well again.. They make a VERY necessary move on O changing the guard there .. Its not my favorite coaching change, Nathan Sheelase first time OC promoted up the ranks and he looks alot more like someone who just enrolled at Iowa St than someone running their offense .. we also get an OL coach change, N.Iowa's guy comes with plenty of acclaim and has put a few guys into the NFL already .. We're getting 50-1 because if they eeked out or lucked out w wins on a couple of those close losses then we'd be getting half those odds or less .. Caesars has been pretty sharp this year IMO and has em at 25-1, plenty of 40's and 50's out there from the more dummyish books .. 

The key on O that must be turned is in the run game and I do like the prospects of bouncing back w all the new coaches and all the OL's back .. they had some really horrific games running the ball going under 3/carry 6 times.. Dekkars surprised and hit a great comp rate 65% in his first year playing and was at least decent in many games and had a few gems.. I think his prospects of developing into a solid B12 QB look pretty good, esp when we think about all the ways the run game woulda hampered the pass game LY.. ie can't take many chances airing it out when a whiff leads to a likely 3 n out.. So as expected lotta short passes LY and had to wayyy over target their best WR Hutchinson .. unfortunately they lose him but do bring back the supporting cast and add what sounds like a reallly legit dude in Jayden Higgins outta FCS E.KY, highly sought after big target 6'4 215.. outside the run we need some things to go right for us to get the Clones turn around but big picture problems are not so vast that they can't get the ship righted quickly ..  

Don't love the schedule, they get the 5 roadies although some reprieve with two of em to Cincy and BYU .. there's a couple potential upset spots like Texas goes B2B roadies into Ames late in the year .. Roadie to OU is week before their UT showdown, that's always a tenuous spot for the sooners .. TCU at home .. @Bay, @K-St are the other roadies, nothing to like about that, but its the B12 nobody gets an easy ride .. yeah put up 10 more points a game and could just be in the thick of things late in the year and def one we'll be happy to hedge a payday out of if they can eek their way into the champ game .. good luck!!

BRIDGE PLAY

BOWLING GREEN +12

Dialed into BG recently and certainly have a few questions but I really like what Loeffler has done the last few years pulling these guys out of the deep .. and I mean DEEEEP, end of the CFB gutter.. getting them to a bowl LY and clear goal to do that again and make more progress in the conference.. they held spring practice in January and we'll see how that impacts things but really no time off and my read from his interview is Loeff is doing it that way to figure out who on his roster is steppin up and not have a long break off and then mosey into spring then have spring break interruptions, no jazzy spring game just back in pads quickly and keep the mojo going .. for a program trying to improve I kinda like that approach .. Connor Bazalek was down w it and I like this pickup he's had a rough run from being clearly a capable QB at Mizzoo to just a nightmare w Indy, great spot to reignite his career and Loeff & Co did well developing McDonald from a horrible QB in 2020 to not bad in '21 and even better in '22.. entire RB group returns plus get their best one Terry Stewart back OFY LY. Lose 1 of the good WRs but Hillaire is back and legit good and found a potential stud LY in FR TE Fannin, huge target.. the OL is back for the most part, seems like a year this offense really can turn the corner .. D is a diff story some concern w 2 co-coordinators taking over but change on D is might be a good thing .. they lose their Havoc Machine LB but there's enough back and Loeff talked alot about some surprise dudes they have and I'd expect improvement overall .. BG also got many more xfers in the door than are being advertised by some of the CFB portal websites, I see a bunch leaving but few coming in .. the beat writers were alot more informative about what's coming in and think it sounds pretty good.. just really like the direction Loeff has BG is going in .. 

Liberty brings in Chadwell and reports of the spring game didn't sound particularly good esp on O ..  His assessment of the D was really not inspiring it sounds like maybe a chance to be good, etc .. My read is Chad will def be competing vs the CUSA but the real goal is building the team and program getting the schemes right etc not taking short cuts .. keep in mind the roster is still mostly filled w guys who didn't receive a 247 rating in HS and speed option offense is not an easy pick up, took years at coastal and think more than anything really needs the right QB .. Chad mentioned after spring they were looking to add a QB which doesn't sound good when they have 2 and unlikely at this point anyway .. and we've seen Coastal's O fall apart when GMC wasn't running the show LY and Chad was very much whiffing on O until he became starter, Coastal was more than a bottom 20 team and used used multiple QB's till they found GMC .. Freeze couldn't decide on one QB at Lib LY and same guys back I'd expect we might see that approach again and almost certainly use week 1 as a try out .. There's also a real ugly coaching sitch on D, bottom line the good DC left and the 1st year Co-DC prob doesn't know coverages, also had to quick hire an analyst for the safeties, 1st time pos coach no real exp w safeties as I can tell .. then Bama swiped their LB coach promoted another analyst to handle those guys .. CB's coach looks like first time w that group .. just a heck of a lotta coaching turmoil after spring, new DC w his hands full and Chad is an O coach seems very much on an island .. plus the D already looked like trouble so maybe real ugly this year .. 

^^ BG / Lib Cont'd .. 

I think BG's offense will just find ways to keep up here Lib's D could really be ugly finding their best guys and also likely not well coordinated ... would def expect that early on this year ..  and I'd expect ALOT of kinks for their O to work out.. Maybe see a pretty slow game from Chadwell used 2 QB's for a couple years until McCall finally claimed the job to himself in '20, and until then there really was not big explosive pass game it was heavy heavy run even from the QB's .. I'd expect if Chadwell has the same QB's back again then they'd at least start the year switching off either as a tryout or making that part of the offense .. Salter was a total mistake machine LY fumbling a ton and wouldn't surprise if he or both QB's come out struggling as they try to work this offense .. Another thing to like is BG actually plays ST's Phil #16 LY and most are back have a good FG K prospect coming in .. they have a legit ACE punt blocker and PR/KRs took 2 back LY.. Great spot to maybe land a big ST play, almost count on Flames not paying much attention to that, made 2 big ST plays vs UCLA LY in the opener .. 

Hard to call Week 1 a look ahead spot but the real kicker could be that Lib has NMSU on deck and recall the Aggs beat the ever-loving PISS out of them on their home field LY as 4 TD dogs.. terrible end to an otherwise great reg ssn.. And it might have been against Freeze but every player has a bad taste from that one and Libs (fairly rabid) home fans do too .. more important to the coaches is NMSU is back in town week 2 as conference foes and CUSA is just there for the taking this year w only 6 teams that can win it .. BG is in no way anywhere near as important or as significant as being ready for that game, even in terms of making a bowl game Lib should easily find 6 wins on their schedule this year .. I think the move for Chad is to use BG to work out kinks and button up what they can and realllly try to be ready for when Jerry Kill's motorcycle club rolls in .. BG on the other hand has FCS E.Ill on deck and Loeff & Co will need to pull at least one decent sized upset to make a bowl and kinda hard to not see this as a chance to pull a shocker.. think they show up just looking for a win .. and looking back they were at least looking to surprise LY vs UCLA, the Bru Crew ran off w it sure but BG threw some punches early .. they caught Marsh w their pants all the way off LY after the big ND win.. they showed up @Minny in '21 and pulled a 30 point upset .. So yeah def on the ML for something and makin some fun parlays think there's a decent chance .. Line is down a little already seeing +11.5, +11, I think that continues well under 10 by kickoff, seems like no reason Libs should be laying more than a TD for this spot .. good luck!

Great stuff as always Bridge! Agree on BG...I doubt Lib has the horses to blow them out in Week 1 with a new coach and new offense.. Go get em bud!