BRIDGE PRE-SSN 2023

@wolfeman3

We'll see wolf .. lot of speculating needed to take anyone at this point esp the Canes lol .. big picture looks like everything went against them LY and need need a huge turnaround on many levels team culture, new coordinators, the injured guys come back and are effective, have to find a few other gems on the roster .. stull super early but I don't see any signs they can't turn the ship around and be a conf wildcard esp because the conf looks pretty weak after the top few .. 

The other things is Clem might be an unbeatable monster I like them wayyy more than I did this time LY w Klubnick and Riley in at OC and they didn't lose as much on D as I initially thought .. even in a "down year" LY still ran thru the conference.. wasn't always pretty nearly lost to Wake, Cuse and others landed some punches on em but the best by far so possible the rest of the conf is just DOA already lol ... But taking now because I think if we're heading into the fall and there's no real bad news then Canes odds should close the gap w the other wildcards and be more like 10-1 give or take.. we'll see!!

@Bridge1

 20 to 1?  You mean 200-1, e.i. +20000, which you can get at multiple books right now

Believe he is talking conference futures, not the natty.

See FanDuel has some GOY's and RSW's. Michigan favored over Penn St and Ohio St by 1.5 and 1.

Yet Wolv RSW is O/U 10.5 juiced to the Under @ -142. Over @ +116.

@UNIMAN

 Ahh....makes much more sense.

@HilliardBuck

Ha yeah I have Miami closer to 20-zillion-1 for the natty than 20-1 lol .. think Cincy and TCU got us well acquainted with just how far back an upstart / surprise playoff team is gunna be from actually winning .. 

@UNIMAN

yeah basically can Wolvos win both those games or split and the odds are juiced to the under for the possibility of another upset somewhere although I don't see that many rough spots on the schedule .. @Minny is a big one and comes after @nebraska .. @MichSt favored by idk 21 pressn and a pretty clean spot seems like another easy win .. The Crab cake sammich is easily the toughest shock spot @PSU, @MD OSU .. no play either way for me .. 

Wouldn't blame anyone for taking OSU under 10.5 -105 ... @ND will be no picnic im getting tempted to take the +10.5 on that one .. wild stretch MD, @Purd, PSU, @Wisco we'll see what the boilers are all about this year but that trip to West-Laf is a real dangerous spot but all 4 gunna give the bucks their best punch of the year ... still gotta go @Mich after all that .. yeah Bucks are either playing at a legit champ caliber level this year or I think its under 10.5 wins .. no sneakin into the playoffs again .. 

Right now without drilling down I would pick Nittany Lions over Wolvs. Lions were really flat coming off of bye when Mich rolled them bad. Then they covered like 6 or 7 in a row. Should have had more plays on them after the Ann Arbor game. Expect more from the Lions this time around.

This year their bye is before UMass so they can afford to be a little flat there. 

On the flip-side, expect to see alot of love for Penn St from the media so value may not be on my side. 

HEISMAN

CARSON BECK 40-1 (BOL)

Was thinking this coming into today because albeit we've only seen him in mop up duty some of his throws were real solid and FF to today I think we can say Beck was Kirby's lean for QB1 getting the first start and in my eyes and others' accounts it seemed like he was the clear winner .. still not a sure thing but def inside track for the best QB on the best team and think we're seeing considerably larger odds because it wasn't clear who the starter was, some spots even had vandegriff's odds lower  .. gotta take sooner than later because once a QB1 seems likely the odds will adjust pretty quick and very possible Vandegriff hits the portal as he's certinly a starting QB at any number of places .. like Auburn lol .. obvi if that happens the odds drop considerably for our dude .. 

Def shop around because I was seeing seeing plenty of 20 or 25-1's out there . 40-1's at BOL and FD although I hit both spots so maybe lower..  should be another book out there w decent odds on him still .. good luck 

Couple things to think about for Heisman shots .. 

Be on a clear playoff team or you need to be VERY special ... Upstart surprise team QB's can make it to NY but haven't faired well .. Max Duggan, Cincy's QB, Kenny Pitt .. all very deserving esp Duggan who among those got the closest and literally might have lost it by 1 point to K-State in the champ game .. note that neither Duggan or Kenny P had any real pre-ssn hype which is almost required .. Lamar Jackson, RGIII are the only heismans I recall who either didn't make or in their case, wouldn't have made, the playoffs .. 

The HC/OC gives us a much better shot than just the OC .. Bama aside .. Lincoln Riley as HC/OC won 2 at OU and 1 at USC .. .. Petrino HC/OC for Lamar wins even losing @Clem and final 2 games of the season, LJ was just toooo dazzling that year .. Ryan Day is another HC/OC who nearly made it for Justin Fields in '19 and sans covid think good chance he'd have been the guy in '20.. HC/OC Jimbo did it w Jamais in '13 .. Mark Helfrich HC/OC/QB w Mariotta prob didn't need much input from Scott Frost .. OC alone we see Riley's brother at TCU made Duggan viable LY  .. Drake Maye came up short of a trip to NY LY but fair to say Longo nearly made it work .. that definitely bodes well for Norvell / Travis this year .. Bama's QB's and Burrow were the only ones to win w out a singular HC/OC shot caller .. 

A 'must play' backup QB can kill your shot .. recall Dabo routinely handed the reins over to the 2 backups after TL throttled em in H1 .. even TL being out for covid I think he still takes the heisman in 2020 over the bama WR, but being benched at the half killed his stats and the heisman voters just couldn't hand it to easily one of the best CFB players ever .. Saban has done this w Tua/Hurts in '18 and Tua finished 2nd to Kyler Murray .. 

Really tough to win in the SEC if yer not on Bama .. Since Johnny Magic only Joe Burrow has even placed from another team other than Burrow .. Bama has 7 finalists, 3 trophies .. thought for sure Hook shoulda won it LY but after an injury/loss vs S.Car a game he still played great in he went from sure thing heisman to erased from history, not even an invite!!!! .. Matt Corrall clear #1 even after a loss to Bama but loses mid season to Auburn and he's toast .. epic 10-2 year and he's erased behind a really weak field .. B-Young, A.Hutchinson and Kenny P .. 

Not at all opposed to violating the observations above btw .. just reallllly need to find some redeeming reasons to do so and have significantly large odds to back it up .. 

HEISMAN

TANNER MORDECHAI 125-1 .. Playin it!!!! .. at 5-1 to win the conference I'd say there is a reallllly good shot for the QB on such a team to be on some short lists late in the year .. Wisco revamping their entire O with Longo (UNC/Maye LY) and reports from camp sound like TM is def the guy .. does it all click right away? idk .. do they have the rec targets? .. thats another huge ? .. does Allen at RB hurt us? .. maybe but I think zero shot to have the success we'd need and I think part of his returning was he wouldn't be as super heavy of a work horse in Longo's offense which really caters to QB stats .. really wanted long odds for Wisco to take the B1G but can't do it at 5, could maybe at 10 .. but this allows me to root them on and x fingers for an even more massive payday .. I think wisco should ROMP to a 7-0 record with OSU coming to camp randall in what I see as a reallllly rough spot for the buckeyes .. this is also easily the best game that week and should have gameday on hand ..  Wisco pulls that off and its real tough to imagine the heisman-worthy hype isin't landing all over our dude and I don't see many high hurdles preventing a 12-0 reg ssn after that as they go @indy, NU, Neb, @Minny .. so I don't think this is just playing a 'big stat' candidate with no real potential to at least make a trip to NY  .. playing now because if the spring game is a total firework show, which no doubt the fans would love to see, then think we can count on the odds sinking considerably, maybe getting half'd .. 

There's a few others to like but the odds just don't make it playable .. yet ..

Jordan Travis .. love the potential big year and Norvell checks the HC/OC box for sure .. but at 12-1 forget it .. Still gotta go to Clem and maybe beat em again in the conf champ game but yeah if so then hard to say he's not likely THE MAN .. I think better move is see if LSU beats them in the opener and search the odds out at that point .. could be a large jump and that game will be ancient history if FSU can regroup and go on to throttle the rest of their schedule, especially if LSU doesn't repeat in the division .. its definitely possible but need bigger odds to make a play .. 

Milton & Ewers .. we def check the HC/OC box w these two .. there is some concern that were likely see backups taking decent H2 reps this year on both teams .. I don't hate the idea of taking Ewers and esp because BOTH big RB's are gone and his arm must carry them this year .. but at 25-1 there's just too many ways his heisman hopes can get a little dashed esp if they lose @bama because its likely he won't have the greatest numbers in that game .. I'd consider Ewers but want 30-40x and just unlikely to see that... maybe like Travis we wait to strike after Bama? .. also think Milton will end up disappointing and likely to see significant reps from their very very expensive 5 star prized recruit .. 

Hartman .. think Hartman's only chance is to guide ND to the playoffs .. the schedule is legit tough enough to justify them as a 1 loss playoff team so could lose early to OSU and get back on track .. but why not just take ND to make the playoffs then?.. at RSW 8.5 we should get at least those odds and that seems a pre requisite for Hartman to have any shot IMO .. ND also has a baked in disadvantage as they don't have a conf champ game to leave a last impression.. heisman election day is conf champ day and that makes it incredibly tough.. maybe needs to run the table 12-0 or have no real viable heisman contenders playing in the conf champ game?.. both of those scenarios seem very unlikely .. 

A few other Heisman props on the radar with some ramblings ...

Cade Klubnik 25-1 .. odds are right on the fence of not considering it but adding Garrett Riley might bring on a huge boomerang .. no reason we will see a backup QB either ... Clem can absolutely run the table this year if the offense spikes as I suspect and the tough ones are FSU at home, @ND, @S.Car, @Miami, @NC.State .. that's a few tough roadies but all should bring about some MASSIVE fireworks as there might not be a top 20 among them .. rest of the ACC is pretty much 4 quarters of mop up duty... more to consider here but def on the radar and def shopping around .. 

Bama QB1 .. I mean why not at this point if we're getting like 60 or 70-1 but I'd say the questions at QB for them really do justify such odds .. almost want to see Simpson get named QB1 and Milroe xfers then just roll the dice blind that he can at least get into the final convo  .. if neither QB separates as a true #1 and both on the roster then think its very likely we see significant reps for whoever the backup .. the starter could also draw Saban's ire and get canned .. with their D saban can feel good getting backups plenty o reps late in games so think the only play is 60-1 on simpson and only if Milroe hits the portal ..  

Texas A&M QB1 .. I assume its Weigman but man o man the spring game left ALOT to be desired at QB .. wasn't unexpected though, AM D is looking pretty insane this year .. but w Jimbo adding Petrino at OC Jimbo we have 2 HC/OC's on the staff that guided a heisman winner .. sounds good but could almost imagine that they cancel each other out lol.... yeah man o man if they can't make an offense work again then start coach shopping mid season .. Seeing Wigman at one shop now 80-1 .. this is def a play I'd look for 100 or more on because they'd have to basically win the SEC and QB would need the stats to back up a trip to NY .. Even if one of their QBs are actually heisman worthy its still likely the O is very slow and still too run based for the QB to pack the stat sheet the way it would need to be .. 

T-Tech's QB 100-1 .. that's Tyler Shough's odds on DK now .. Still have to wait until the QB comp is over and think we really need one of the QB's out as retaining both Morton and Shough would likely signal both will see significant action this year.. the move of course being that Shough will be gone next year and Morton will step in so would need to keep Mortey happy and assure his place as the likely starter next year .. my hope is that one hits the portal and I doubt the odds folks will be on top of the significance of the move as a singular starting QB for Tech should be 40 or 50-1 this year even if they're a true long shot for the conference because if Kitley has the offensive plutonium to go supercritical this year then its going ...... BOOM ...... 

Grayson McCall 250-1 .. this is just a fantasy since there's so much going against G-MC from being on a zero playoff chance G5 team to the new coach, (OC at NC State .. puke) .. but McCall is an ultra well known commodity at this point and pure magician so it won't be hard to get on anyone's radar if something totally wild happens... unfortunately the wild thing we need has to happen in the pre-ssn like a giant bag of bama money shows up this week and he's whisked away .. of course there's no way saban does anything remotely wild like that with his team but it would be one of the more epic headline dominator moves in cfb history and our odds go from 250 to 25 overnight .. most every competitive P5 team has their QB situation more/less squared away right now so its gunna be a pass ..  :(

Ohio State observations;

Weakness at this point appear to be offensive line and qb position as compared to CJ. Although defense maybe really good and was reason O-line was having trouble? Seems like I saw a few holdings and even a takedown or two on pass plays from that O-line, not called. McCord was pressured alot and not as accurate as we are used to seeing from the Bucs, 18 of 34. QB Devin Brown did not play, has bad finger. 

Losing longtime OC Kevin Wilson to Tulsa hurts, IMO. He was a real good schemer. Hartline, a former buc wr moves from wr coach to OC. He is a great recruiter obviously, but wonder how his OC skills are? Will have to watch early game halftime adjustments. (See he just rolled his atv and ended up in the hospital, he's ok)

Speaking of adjustments, MH JR is lining up more in the slot. See Eleven Warriors saw this too and suggest maybe to get the ball out quicker to him due to three new guys on O-line.  This guy just stands out! The real x-factor. If he stays healthy he could carry the team. Heisman odds 20-1. Hmmm.

Am sure the O-line needs some jell time. The D is looking much better then in the past. Might be seeing some lowering scoring from OSU, PSU, and UM this year?? Maybe.

Great grabs Bridge! Beck is down to 25 at most books now! Good luck man

@UNIMAN

Yeah I didn't catch much of the game but heard the OL was the big question and and obvi McCord .. we'll see .. I remember when brewer went like 18-18 in Utah's spring game a few years ago before losing to SDSU and others ... then Rising marched them to the conf championship .. tough to gauge the spring but def woulda preffered a rompin than hittin like 50/50 .. 

Heard about Hartline .. glad he's good.. drunk ATV'in .. coach could get canned pretty quick because of that but if I know the buckeyes they won't fire him no matter what till after the season so my tickets are still good .. 

And don't need to worry much FPI doesn't just have OSU #1 but like wayyyyyy #1 .. like 4 points ahead of UGA!!! .. Bama #2 but we know its a down year they should be like 8 points worse than us .. natty is pretty much locked up hahaaaa!!!.. 

Remember when I said LY I saw GA-SO's spring game and holy crap the O looked like a lotta fun?!? .. well ... don't sleep on GT this year .. WOOP!!!

HEISMAN

GRAYSON MCCALL 250-1

Mentioned this up in post #35 and while even if the "wild thing" I mentioned we'd need to happen does indeed happen we would still need so many things to align perfectly to have a remote chance and very possible the odds may not even scrunch down THAT much... but for 250-1 I can spare a few bucks and just have fun w it .. I suspect Auburn or Florida seem like the most likely splash landing spots for a post-spring QB xfer .. the main prob with McCall is he's only 1 year left and if yer gunna alienate your existing QB room with a splash grab then its wayyy more desirable to land a guy with multiple years of eligibility .. someone like Brock Vandagriff .. portal supply could end up killing any possibility ..

But the spring portal is open for 10 more days and there's no way a few teams haven't put the feelers out to his reps gauging the interest .. and agents know the situation you have fan bases in the dumps already and money to burn ..  if GMC doesn't shut the door in their faces then at minimum there would be a real life changing offer and at best an insane bidding war over him .. and well worth it IMO because bagging G-MC would totally invigorate the fans and dominate the pre-ssn headlines, a slam dunk in so many ways before he takes a snap .. All I can really hope for is some cheap thrills that extend beyond the April portal window .. but I like cheap thrills so .. #GMC4HEISMAN!!

Missed the part where Hartline was toasted. Makes sense.

About a year ago I had some atv's cut through my property. Went to their cabin and the bunch was sitting outside around a campfire. Empty Jack Dainels and beer cans everywhere and many full waiting to be consumed. Asked politely to please stay off my section. And they did. Liability concerns first and foremost. Alcohol and any motorized equipment don't mix!

Yeah, spring ball a small early indicator at most. Wolv O-line not impressive either. 

Bridge...DK still has 300-1 on Run GMC if you want it...They may have already kicked you out since they do that to some sharps... Thanks for the picks bro

Tried to place GMC with a local book here in TN...they rejected it 5 times before telling me to call customer care lol :) 

@BigTymePlayer25

Ha yeah DK was my fav book 2 yrs ago .. unfortunately I can only do like 60 cents on futures .. I think it might have been because I parlayed 10 of indiana's GOY lines together the year they fell apart and they decided the limit needed to be way under $3 for me lol .. 

No need to get on the bookies radars trying to house them on a 300-1 GMC Heisman deal, I think there's really only like a 40% chance it wins lol .. hopin for cheap thrills and thats all bud!!

Spring games maybe 90% in the books .. can't tell if its dumb or genius for the couple teams who haven't completed theirs yet .. maybe the one positive is the portal window is nearly closed and lot of guys won't know their status on the team's DC until after the spring gm .. unfortunately for that gambit the portal will still be open for a few days after their games .. only SJSU has a spring game after the window closes and they sure don't need to lose anyone .. but tough to focus on the team and practice and spring game when you have clear roster needs and guys are getting recruited and snatched up quickly .. lotta teams might be left recruiting 2nd tier guys or even the real runoff from these overloaded rosters .. 

MD, Akron, Rutgers, Oregon, Wyo, Kent St, Umass have their game next week w aforementined SJSU in early may .. think every single one of those teams have real portal needs .. interesting to see how it plays out .. 

Kent State maybe need to just blindly send scholarship offers to everyone in the portal and see if they get any replies .. Was wondering why SP+ has them as a massive pre-ssn outlier almost a full TD worse than New Mexico for super dead last place .. 0 returning or xfers starters on offense .. there's a few on D but some units got wiped out .. 16 hit the portal 5 added but nothing close to starting experience very most low snaps or none .. 15 or so graduated almost all starters or heavy contributors .. 8 freshman recruited .. I calc 66 non sp tm's guys and 60% or so were not rated by 247 as recruits .. Sean Lewis to Colorado, smart move buddy .. wow!!!!

FUTURES

DUKE ACC CHAMP 50-1 (CZR)

Taking a bite out of it now CZR's the only odds out there .. very possible we get better odds later but think there's a risk if we wait the odds scoot to 30 or so where I wouldn't be that interested .. the schedule is a beast with top ACC and avoid Miami but really get the brunt of the conf mid section .. my read, and reason for the shot on the canes too, is that I think ACC's tier 2's won't have an unwinnable bomb and some could have a few just totally overrated help clear a path for us .. nothing easy but if duke has the goods then like the odds to at least make a run and land us at least a decent payday hedge at some point .. 

The offense brings back nearly everything w gems all over it .. Riley Leonard plus 3 very good RB's and 4 WR's that would make anyone's 'DUDE' list .. lose 3 OL's from a solid unit but they weren't the best of the bunch and bring in 2 xfers and have experienced backups ready to fill in .. OL coach is back and whipped em into shape LY offense only gave up 17 sacks on 400 att's .. under 5%!!! .. alot of that is Leonard's ability to avoid the pressures but gotta give the big boys some credit .. they may not have the big name star power because the ball gets distributed very well among the RB's and WR's .. the crew we know from LY is enough to surprise big again but the O becomes really dangerous if the newbies on the OL make that unit stronger and also one of their 2 young TE's from LY step up and become real weapons.. 

Elko and his co-DC's made a massive jump yr 1 going from bottom 15 to ~60ish on D .. can't say they run it back for another 60 spot jump lol but I'd trust them to out perform again .. they have at least one legit star back at DL, DE and CB along w the vast majority of the production for those units and there's enough young experience to expect break out stars to emerge so each could be upper crust ACC units .. lose all world safety Darius Joiner and Shaka Hayward at LB .. safeties might not be as strong but have starters and contributors and xfers back to expect a decent unit .. big chance for Miami Xfer Al Blades Jr's production to match his humongous 247 talent rating .. LB does look like trouble in depth, experience and talent but in a 4-2-5 they don't need to find a bunch of dudes .. LB is the big concern on the whole team IMO .. Even Sp tms looks good Cutcliff produced many great ST units and have a solid K, P and maybe the top ACC return guy .. need to win a few games that we're dogs in and good STm's is a must have .. 

Schedule is a behemoth and doesn't quit .. opens home vs Clemson and assume a loss they need to hit the rest of the conf schedule hard .. week 7 off a bye home vs NC State, @FSU @Ville, Wake, @UNC, @UVA, PITT .. total gauntlet even UVA on the road after UNC makes the spot tough.. but they were consistently ON last year so not unreasonable they sneak in w a 5-2 conf record.. the tie breaker rules may still kill us .. also champ opponent may really hurt a hedge out .. lotta ways this can dud out on us but man o man love the profile and best believe dukies are believin they can do it .. for 50-1 or more I do to!!!

See Colorado dumped a bunch in the portal.

And Texas coming to Ann Arbor in 2024. Good, I love steak! 

@UNIMAN

Wow didn't see that, good for them!!..  before Wash last year there's been quite a void of the bigger name non-cons coming to the big house huh? .. I guess technically Colo back in '16 was ranked by end of the year .. BYU in '15  .. '14 brought back App State ..  ND in town back in '13 for the recurring matchup .. besides the ND series I see Oregon back in 07 .. Can't help but kinda think some of UM's past struggles were in part because of the ho humm scheduling .. win or lose I think getting UT in the big house is a great move!!! .. and double huge because UT's first big gm in the SEC!!!! .. maximum fun!!!!!!

Bama2012? Florida2017, started out ranked. UTAH in 2015 and 2016 finished in top 25 both years.

See CJ Stroud has cognitive issues, I mean really bad.

@UNIMAN

Yeah I don't mean they haven't had a few big non con games over the years just tough gettin em into the big house and UT seems likely to be historically huge .. kinda assuming they'll both be top 5ish next year so idk maybe biggest game there in 30+ years? .. gunna be yuuuuge . 

Oh yeah CJ .. sheesh .... do you think that has something to do with why he couldn't beat Michigan?... hahaaaa!!