BRIDGE PRE-SSN 2023

@lvmike32

Yeah BOL always moves their lines real quick and don't often move back .. Still up there at FD 10.5 normal odds .. if they're available i'd check it out .. they've been a good option for shopping around ..  

RSW's .. 

Bol with their RSW's out too .. unfortunately their max is always low at first .. too low to really call anything below plays but they have a few worth check out I think .. 

FSU Under 10 -115 the odds are jiggled now but think its a good number to play .. hard to not at least tie w LSU and @Clem on the schedule .. small bucks I can hit it and not think about it ... I'd think alot more about it at a higher limit but prob wouldn't need to for long  .. I just can't trust any ACC team other than clemson to lock down their entire conference schedule and at 10 wins FSU will need to pitch a near perfect game for that bet to lose ... so yeah can still have fun w that number even if the odds have moved a little .. 

Houston over 4.5 +100 just a full game diff from Czrs its a really tough schedule but a few winnable UTSA, @Rice, Sam Hou, WV, Cincy, OK.State @UCF .. 5/7 winnables at home 2 seem likely although can't discount rice too much esp after almost beating em LY lol ..  D was throttled w injuries LY can't be that bad again and got Donovan Smith coming in at QB .. some units look thin but nothing screams 'sure thing dud' .. UCF roadie may be a stretch.. Baylor or Ttech have had bad days before .. 4.5 seems too underrated IMO .. 

Miss State over 6.5 +120 ..  they lose the heart and soul of the team RIP Pirate they are def playing for the guy this year and have one of .. maybe the? .. best QB's still and a roster that wasn't throttled so bad .. I kinda like Arizona to surprise this year at least w their offense but hard to imagine they pull a shocker in Stark Vegas this year .. bulldogs get by them and we lock in 4 wins between AZ, FCS SELA, W.Mich and S.Miss ... gotta win something on the road but @S.CAR @ARK, @AUB, UK, are not looking like the toughest crowd this year and Egg Bowl at home is always competitive .. 4 wins, 5 more need to win 3 I think they can get there .. wouldn't count them out of a BIG upset either they pull LSU and Bama at home and roadie to A&M looks very tough .. unlikely to take those down but we have alot of shots on goal to eek out 3 more wins .. 

@Bridge1

 Thanks Bridge.  Live in Vegas and you can't get FD, DK, Bet365 and BAS here in Nevada.  Not that I have much interest in a US based book - none of them will allow consistent winners (unless maybe they bet $50 a game).  Their CEO's have said as much publicly.  I have BOL, BM and Circa (local but good CF lines).  Probably will add Heritage for this season.  

GL this coming season.  PAC12 actually looking loaded this year with good, experienced QB's coming back - see if any of them can play some defense. 

@lvmike32

Yeah PAC looks tough this year after idk maybe a decade long slide .. tough to play any of the upper crust teams on the futures just very low and not sure if anyone else can break thru this year .. 

Oh so you have the real books then not the toys lol .. yeah I ripped Caesars pretty bad LY but they're still taking my action, highly recommend them .. and FD too, hopefully I can get another season out of both of them, BOL been great too .... all the others stink in some way, DK plus the twin crap holes Barfstool, Betrivers went nuclear on me like 10 dollar limit .. Toadstool even voided a bunch of RSW's LY they didn't like .. cheatin bastards .... BM piss'd me off last year put me on their 'do not reward' list after a couple winning seasons, I lost plenty to them over a decade and always gave them my dummy parlay action, didn't matter .. they had a great deal start the year w the deposit bonus and maybe a free G cashing the reward points after the season .. BAS got strict too low limits till gameday .. 100 max on the low juice .. they were rockstars during the FCS covid spring season .. went from first place I check to the LAST .. some weeks I never even get around to checking them .. 

Any other offshore books you know that get the lines out early and aren't just totally irkey jerky with the limits? .. 

RSWs

LOUISVILLE UNDER 8.5 -140 (FAN)

Got the 8.5 I wanted but gotta pay for it .. its possible to hit 9 wins if things really go well in year 1 for Brohm but my first inclination for Ville was they were a little overrated with books giving them 10-1 odds for the conf .. basically saying they are a decently legit contender on par w UNC and other 2nd tier teams and just not sure that's the case here .. the strength of the team LY was the D and maybe the biggest assumption the books are making is that new DC Larry English will pick up right where that left off .. He had a decent pass D in '21 w Purdue when Lambert was Co-DC there, thought they fell back a bit LY after losing Lambert .. Ville loses Yaya and Yasir Abdullah to the draft both were havoc MACHINES .. they add a legit pass rusher from Stan and maybe J-Lole is finally healthy B2B season ending injuries but not sold they'll have the major firepower up front .. Ville had a pretty good LB group for years and LY's was great as as a unit but all 3 are gone .. they bring in some reinforcements but seems pretty unlikely they'll pitch a solid D like they had LY, models were very high on them between top 25 and some close to top 10 .. 

Offensively I think we all like Brohm "comin home" and also reuniting w his old QB Plummer so can be confident offense .. but there's a reason Plum went to Cal LY and its not because he was on O'connell's level .. and unlikely they have a total gamer like chuck sizzler in the WR room they did bring in a G5 stud but the room doesn't look packed w targets .. there's unlikely to be a TE like Payne in that room either Ville loses their best weapon Marshawn Ford .. Brohm's offenses were also completely hamstrung but a lack of a run game, bottom 10 or so the last few years .. so maybe the one thing that could really help is that Ville has a built in capable run game w Jordan and an OL that can block for him .. my guess is if that doesn't happen the O will be alot more hit and miss maybe end up costing them in the W column games they could or should win .. 

Schedule has a good group of 'should win' games FCS Murray State, BC, UVA does seem like 3 in the bag .. Little hesitant to say VT, @Indy or GT are there too even if some of their profiles kinda stink all 3 and even possible for BC to show up for a few games playing well this year  .. best path to 9 W's is win all 6 of those and go 3/7 @NCSt, ND, Duke, @PITT, @MIA, UK .. they could do that but more likely we see a 'freak loss' somewhere on their easy games then its real tough to catch up after that .. easiest path to U8.5 is Ville just doesn't meet their very strong projections and struggle to land even 8 wins .. I recall those first few years for Brohm at Purdue were all looking like "a big year" and routinely disappointed with the low coming in '19 w 4 wins, covid year was awful too .. took them 5 years to really put their teams together well after the hype had worn off .. better starting point with Ville but seems like a lotta ways for history to repeat itself.. 

RSW

ARIZONA OVER 4.5 -122 (FAN)

We were getting quite a few 5's and 5.5's and FAN comes thru with I think easily the best number we'll get .. not much to say outside the obvious Jed Fisch needed a few years to get the offense in a position to help them win and we saw the start of that last year handling business vs SDSU and another surprise vs NDSU they hung in there vs a top FCS team that any FBS teams that don't have their act together would find a very difficult win .. Cats also bagged an easy W vs the Buffs and eek'd out wins vs ASU and monster upset vs UCLA which pushed the Bru Crew out of very nearly a run to the PAC champ game .. I got a glipse of the spring game and roster and it looks to be in great shape for a break out year but even with no improvement I think decent chance to land 5 W's this year .. obvi we can't say the D will improve much but I think it would be tough to be THAT bad again .. just roll of the dice w a decent amount of ret pro and a couple xfers I think gives us hope they won't be a liability in achieving the win total and maybe even help us out a few weeks .. 

Using SP+ to calc their win probs I get ~4.5 my view looking at the roster was they seem likely underrated..  Caesars def agreed putting them at 5.5, one of just a few teams they had a full game stronger than SP's odds without any real glaring reason like massive portal adds / losses, etc .. a few others have em at 5 and everyone w juiced overs .. FAN clearly didn't get the memo .. 

Schedule gives us a 3 very likely wins .. FCS NAU and UTEP ..  I'm making some assumptions w Stan but I'd be very shocked if the Trees have a capable team this year and books seem to agree w their win total in the 3 - 3.5 range juiced UNDER .. UA is def one of the few teams SP says Stan can win so maybe they're one to look at .. think UA will be way too strong offensively for them to compete .. anyway think its 3 easy early wins w a couple maybe more tenuous being on the road @CU and @ASU is the rivalry so gotta be cautious .. SP says UA is 10 pt dogs, would love to play that GOY ... think great chance for UA to win all 5 of those games and even if they whiff on one we've seen their offense LY was dangerous enough to pull a bigger upset .. nothing easy about winning these but I like our chances to grab 1 of em .. @Wash St, Oreg St, UCLA, .. Utah and Wash seems like a major stretch but both of those are at home too .. also like the schedule w the easy ones early, the goal of this year has to be making a bowl and very likely they stay competitive down the stretch .. doubt they'd really surprise anyone either if they have 5 wins heading to Tempe looking to make the post season .. good luck!

I like em Bridge! Thanks man! If I recall correctly, you were something crazy like 21-4 with RSW last season...holy cow lol :) 

@Bridge1

 Good info Bridge.  I need to look into Caesars and BetMGM as I should obviously be able to get them here in Nevada.  might be able to pound them for a year.  Surprised on your issues with BM.  Have a friend who has made a six figure living doing sports arbitrage betting with BM and some other offshores for 10 years.  He's long gone using accounts in his name and has had to figure out work arounds for years.  But he says BM is by far the sharpest book (in general, he loses his bets there, wins bets at the others) and is the one book that lets you win the most before limiting your $ play.  Says they're usually good for letting an account win up to $50K while others are usually much less.  It's definitely an art form as no book or casino in the world will let anyone beat them bad consistently in the long run.  That's why when someone claims to be a big winner my first ask is always how are they allowed to play?? the US based books are a joke and since they are in bed with the State Governments and Sports Leagues the consistent winning bettor will never have an advocate.  

anyway, so you hit as hard as you can as long as you can.  All you can do.  GL on the RSW - was looking at FSU and some others and numbers look especially tight this year to me so far.  FSU has LSU and Clemson and if they win one of those then I can't see them losing more than 2 with Florida seemingly down this year.  But your record on RSW is incredible and Under is the only play to be considered.  GL 

RSWs

WISCONSIN OVER 8.5 -110 (FAN)

Don't need to dive too far into the team think we know there's alot to like and I think the D will be a pretty big surprise they lose a few studs but think top to bottom pretty solid group that won't drop off much even w the huge loss of Jim Leonhard .. easy to be unsure about the group without tons of proven stars but there's a few headlined by Njongmeta at LB .. guy is the real deal, total havoc machine .. that said there's some concerns about the ret pro on the back end of the D but there sure wasn't in the spring game .. think we know Tanner Mordechai as someone who can make the throws and that D pick'd him multiple times .. think the one more major concern I have is the WR unit ... after years of playing Wisco ball the cupboard was left pretty bare and Fickle had to bring in a few guys .. still seems like a concern as none sound like a sure thing go to WR .. the OL is also a bit thin in the numbers but most of the top talent ratings on the team reside in the unit so unless they have rampant injuries I think they'll be solid .. sum it up saying there could be some issues or weaknesses in some units on the team but think alot to like and really time for a change and Fickle and the staff are bringing a very good culture and attitude fit for this team .. 

The schedule is constructed pretty well to hit 9 or more wins, should have an easier time vs Buff, G.So, Rutgers, @Indy and NU .. and would put almost everyone else in a tier where Wisco could lose but should have a decent advantage .. they'll be seeking revenge @Wash St, @Purdue, Nebraska .. @ILL maybe tougher Wisco again will be seeking revenge there and can't say how huge home field is vs Iowa .. of those 10 games maybe Ill on the road before OSU is just a bad spot that gets the best of em .. Think Minny could have a slight edge at home in the finale .. window maybe a little tight but think it plays out with Wisco at 8 wins with Neb and @Minny left to go and very good chance to hit 9 .. and while I have to chalk up OSU as a loss the spot is really horrific for them in camp randall on the heels of a huge game w Penn State .. SP+ line is 16 and I think books rightfully are giving Wisco a massive HFA edge putting it at 9.5 GOY line .. Wisco pulling off a shocker in that spot wouldn't surprise me and also important if they did I don't think they'd give it right back in a potentially huge hangover spot @Indy the next week ..

CONF FUTURES

TCU 16-1

Fan Duel also has it 20-1 unfortunately only allowed to bet 30 bucks on it, maybe you can get more down.. Maybe a bit square but I took a closer look at the Frogs when looking at the Buffs GOY game and seems like all the tools to make another big run and the areas with perceived losses really aren't as rough as it maybe appeared back in January .. Think we can count on Morris as a viable solid replacement to Duggan .. can't say it's the same since Duggan was an absolute ultra competitor of pure awesomeness .. but we can hang our hats on knowing Morris won the QB battle LY and knows this offense well and about as promising a replacement as we can ask for .. the unknown are whether he has Duggan level heart but at least knows what it looks like .. they also landed some legit dudes at WR which was the big hit area .. JP Richardson was a decent target at OK State but went off for 3 scores in the spring game legit awesome .. JoJo Earle from Bama and Dylan Wright from Minny will be utilized much more w the frogs and bring in very high talent ratings .. O shouldn't skip a beat replacing Riley w Briles and the OL added a few guys to replace the big names they lost .. that line has some giants w 8 of their hogs coming in between 315 to 360 .. lot to like ..  

Think we can also trust the miracle worker abilities of a DC that took the frogs from a bottomed out 115th D in '21 to top 30ish LY .. all the more miraculous considering they went from Patterson's very particular and complicated 4-2-5 to installing another particular and complicated 3-3-5 scheme which takes some teams years to get working right .. it was spotty at times early on they struggled vs SMU, Kansas, OK.State but steadily got better and started pitching gems 2nd half of the ssn .. F+'s game grades rank TCU's D vs the Horns as the #2 performance of the year .. and fair to say they couldn't match up w UGA lol but that's fine .. they def lose a couple big names but ALOT is back and I'd expect improvement with generally deeper more experienced units and been a year in that system .. 

Think the main thing to like is competition UT seems like a sure thing this year but the other top contenders don't seem too rock solid OU might be a year away still and I'm very much thinking Venables will play alot of his star freshman tryin to get his roster ready for SEC ball .. books love K-State at 5-1 to repeat and they were kindof a miracle just to make it LY .. Kinda like T-Tech to be a surprise but its a long shot .. think Baylor lost some dudes that they won't quickly replace .. outside of the horns there's not many sure things .. the schedule is very kind early and think TCU is sitting 7-0, 4-0 in conf heading into the rough stretch .. @K-State, @TTech, Texas, Baylor, @OU .. Thursday trip to Lubbock looks like a real nasty spot but will have 12 days off for that one .. UT/OU straddling their MASSIVE Baylor rivalry generates some unpleasant spots too .. but were not shooting for the playoff think good shot to get us to the champ game and lock us up a decent payday..

RSW's .. 

GEORGIA TECH OVER 4.5 +120 (FAN)

4.5 is widely available and approximates the win prob odds calc'd using SP+ .. Hit GT LY at 3 in the belief they were very likely to at a minimum pull a tie and have a few long shots to land a win .. even losing Jamar Gibbs I based LY's play mostly on returning production, that they aappeared to have 3 servicable QB's and most importantly that their D couldn't possibly suck as bad as in '21 with zero picks the entire year vs FBS competition .. It was def one I started regretting early and thought we were dead in the water at many points .. GT needed all 3 of those QB's LY too injury carousel none played more than 7 games .. we got Sims injured half way thru .. we got Pyron taking over he next 3 before getting injured then Gibson finished vs UVA and played the last few games .. Coach fired a few games into the season .. then mortified seeing Duke was actually good!!!.. then falling just short vs a 'must win' UVA team .. getting lucky vs VT .. if I knew that pre-ssn I woulda said RSW should be 1.5 lol .. But Techies turned around and pull 3 straight up SHOCKERS beating the good Dukies and baggin Pitt and UNC as 3TD dogs .. covered by 2 games .. GT also played great games vs Clem for a good bit and that H1 vs UGA holy smokes!!.. 

The D really led the way LY total turnaround and bagged 8 picks vs FBS comp and while they got throttled in a few games they were serviceable most of the year and pitched some straight up gems in a couple games .. Models are a little split how good the D was but they agree it was a big improvement.. Brent Key was elevated to interim HC and that was made official so lot of continuity for a coaching change and both Co-DC's return to build off LY .. they lose a couple guys but most units pretty deeply in tact and I'd expect improvement .. the big news is on O, Key brings in UGA Analyst Buster Faulkner which doesn't sound that exciting but when Stetson basically ignores Monken and credits him with his success LY I'll listen to that .. Jacks lose Sims to Nebraska and is QB1 there but it sounds like Pyron was legit solid and Faulkner recruited Haynes King to come on board and some very promising WR prospects from Bama and A&M and both QB's proceeded to LIGHT IT UP in the spring game .. same feeling I had when I mentioned G.So's spring gm last year just holy smokes where did this come from .. GT also just bagged Dom Blaylock from UGA post spring and it seems word is out if you like deep balls in your face then head over to Atlanta (lol).. and because none of these were prospects and don't bring production w them SP+ is not picking up on it, let alone what seems like a very effective coaching change .. thus I feel pretty good taking odds on 4.5 when the SP+ odds calc right around there .. 

I don't think the schedule is super favorable but we do have a couple gimmes FCS S.CAR State and BG seem like sure things.. homer w BC, @UVA, I didn't get the feeling either of them are shocking anyone this year and couple reasons to think they keep sinking ... and have Cuse at home late in the year seems like a tossup at least in the pre-ssn but I don't expect them to build off LY's success and maybe take a step back .. @Wake is possible .. everyone loves Ville this year but week 1 in the ATL seems like a very possible upset special .. think we have 4 wins and 3 more decent money shots.. the door likely shuts at that point , @Miami, UNC are real long shots although most of their wins LY did too.. @Ole Miss, @Clem, UGA totally out of reach .. but new coach new QB new attitude triad is in full effect, lot to like and I think eventually the number  moves to 5 or were layin juice over 4.5 so taking now .. I'd def take another stab if one of the dummy books gives us a 4 ..  

@Bridge1

 Love the GT look. FYI draft kings had opened them at 4 but it is already gone. Couldn't hit it because of limits as discussed...

Question on Arizona. Would you take the 4.5 -144 or 5 at -115? I'm not as bullish as you with them but 4.5 is a good number to tail.

Cuse is a no play @6.5 with +money or not, I agree. I also had my eye on '22 darling wazzu... 6.5 a no play.

Alluded earlier but I will have an eye on Wyoming. And hoping books are not privy to what's going on in South Al.

Scouring for value I did hop on TTech 7 -115 at CZR. Hoping that resurfaces somewhere. Curious to your thoughts

@JozKnows

Sup dude .. Really liked 4.5 .. peep the schedule ramps up quick after the few we like UA in ..  I think its 3 in the bag and then making some assumptions with CU and its mid november in boulder .. and @ASU year end doesn't matter how the year goes for either there's no sure thing lock it up win in that game .. and lets be fair SP+ says they are 10 POINT DOGS in that one and just a slight fav at CU .. really gotta trust the read that the offense can CARRY this team .. after that we need to get lucky .. never a picnic on the Palouse .. Oreg State / UCLA even at home Cats are gunna be BIG dogs .. Not saying what you should do -140 is not cheap but I'll pay for a number I like .. could also bet it smaller and see if MGM or PB or one of the late comers offers better .. 

Also have to keep in mind last year was straight up FREEEEEEEAK and nobody just wheels em in like they're just bubba gump shrimpin forever lol ... 

Yeah I have some real concerns with how deep of a team Cuse is gunna be this year .. OC Anae gave the O a jolt and he's gone .. Shraeder much better than expected w him LY .. really don't like that he was out all spring .. really liked the backup QB Lamsen in the spring as a just in case but he xferred out .. like the new RB and a few WR's look great the one guy 'OG' is a legit pro .. could be dangerous but actually better than LY I doubt it .. 

Have to check on south AL I was guessing they'd be good again .. think the thing to really watch is what's happening at ULL .. run on the bank w Amos and now awesome LB Perriclauexadeauxadu on top of the goods they lost already .. bad sign and wouldn't say they are gettin in anyone's way in that division .. 

@JozKnows

Like the idea of doing something w TTech but think we agree the range of outcomes for them is pretty wide .. much rather be getting odds for higher achievements and get paid if it works out ... did that sorta w wash state LY took the 5.5 with the juicier odds and only took it 4.5 because I thought the number was too good to pass on .. 7 for t-tech doesn't quite give me the same feeling but I don't dislike the number.... think the bowl really siphoned off the value for us, slammin Ole Miss really put them on alot of folks' radars and as we saw their numbers moved quick .. alternate universe we're getting RSW's at 6.5's or maybe even a 6 and hittin em 25-1 for the conf still .. bummer .. 

SMALLER

MICH ST / WASH -10.5 (GOY)

Went ahead and hit it for a few bucks the sitch in East Lance seems pretty ugly .. we're already laying about 5 points than the original line so would be cautious but if anyone still has -11 or better I think you'll be on the right side of history.. 

SMALLER

PENN ST / MICH -1.5 (FAN) 

Was leaning this way for a while now and BOL musta had a bomb come in because theirs moved to -3 so gunna hurry up and grab it now .. Think Mich is just too well advantaged on their OL and alot of the roster looks dangerously close to hittin Natty status .. my WR concerns are still lingering its really my one hangup from thinking they could pull a massive shocker this year .. that's not the concern in this game because overall the unit looks pretty solid .. the D looks absolutely pure nasty .. PSU is nasty too but I question if their OL is gunna be where it needs to be this year to do the big things some folks are thinking about .. and I like the prospects for Allar, don't mind getting a free 10.5 vs OSU .. but it is year 1 and I think it appeared that way in the spring tape .. Manny's D was breaking their OL often and I like how he's moving for a big dude but not confident he'll make all the throws needed or have a the sorta next level targets he'll need when he has Mich doing that to him.. think we can trust JJ to handle a big  game like this one .. also can't ignore how Mich was just owning em in every way LY we can't predict THAT level of prison lovin again but think they can win by more than a point .. good luck!

Would not touch that without knowing if it is a night game or not. No idea who Aller is at QB either. This is the toughest game on Michigans schedule imo in 2023 and if a game gets lost it’ll be this one

The UM-PSU game is November 11th....very low probability of it being a night game. While they no longer have a rule that prohibits Big Ten schools from hosting night games in November, last season (and possibly before) there was an agreement with the Big Ten TV partners prohibiting November night games after the first weekend of November. I know Ohio St played Minnesota at night in Ohio Stadium on Nov 7, in 2015, which kicked at 8 pm. While they'll still keep pushing the envelope, I can't remember another Big Ten night game in November after Nov 7th, but I could be wrong. And I am struggling to come up with any other Big Ten night games in November period, though I think there have been a couple. So, despite the new Big Ten TV partnerships, I would doubt that we'll see the November night games extending past the first weekend this season.

Didn't NBC pay for night games exclusively?

@HilliardBuck

 Oh that’s a good point. Can’t remember the exact date but think it was mid November in 2021 I went to Indiana / Mich night game in Ann Arbor. Completely miserable. Probably a different story if it’s a big time matchup but I remember wanting to leave in the 2Q. Boring game + freezing temperatures = watch from the comfort of the couch lol

@HockeyNight11

Uni said he actually hoped it was a white out for Mich though because statistically it actually helps the opponent win lol .. I'm with Uni on this one .. BRING IT ON!!! 

... I mean I also don't want anyone to catch a cold either so they don't have to make it the white out game if they don't want .. 

Yes, they did....but I did not think that stretched into late November, at least for 2023. But, after about an hour and half of google searches this morning, I've found more information. NBC is indeed advertising that the new "Big Ten Saturday Night" game this fall will slot from 7:30 pm to 11 pm ET from Sep 2 through Nov 25. (And there will be prime-time Big Ten Black Friday game on NBC as well this year.) I should have known not to cite precedence in the ever fluid world of CFB. Still, the several predictions I found this morning for Penn St v Michigan on Nov 11 all pointed to an afternoon kick. 

Lastly, FOX obtained the first three picks in the Saturdays drawing for 2023 games, with the remaining picks rotating between NBC, CBS and FOX. With one of those picks, it is assumed FOX will have Sat, Nov 25, so it can air OhSt v Mich. We'll have to see on the others, but one twitter poster that has a lot of knowledge on the new Big Ten TV deals is: @Genetics56  ....

He has tweet linked here: https://twitter.com/Genetics56/status/1653545801413476357    ...while none of that is official, interesting that he has three games called for FOX: Penn St at Ill, Penn St at OSU, and OSU at Mich....but no call at all on PSU at Mich, and he didn't respond to replying tweets asking that one.

PAC FUTURES

UTAH 6-1 (CZRs)

Caesars is the one spot we can get the 6-1 so might not be around .. Don't need to say much on Utah we have the B2B champs coming to defend the crown .. only reason were getting 6 is because the Pac looks a bit crowded at the top and let's be fair Utes are always underrated, they lose a few guys and all of a sudden they're getting the best odds of the upper crust teams .. I'd just go ahead and trust the coaching and what they have and also been taking down a few needs in the portal and would say Utes above most anyone know how to spin gold out of the transfer materials theyve received .. Some concern with Rising's injury but he's on track for the season not worried there .. I'd say if Caesars knocks the 6 down we can still wait for in season .. possible they lose one of their non cons and we get something better 7 or 8? .. the real odds could show up if Coach decides its just not worth risking Rising in those games and with an injury prone QB who plays as wild as Rising does I could absolutely see an easy decision to hold him out vs UF and maybe Baylor too .. put him back for their FCS game and roll into conf .. if there's a sniff of him not playing it feels like the odds will double... at least .. I reserved a little of my bet for that scenario ..  Schedule is nasty for sure but I think everyone's is in the PAC and just trustin my gut that like nature the Utes find a way back to the champ game and unless they are just super lucky stumbling in I think its another close line in the champ game +/-3 pts and easy spot to hedge if we need to .. Also really not sold USC survives the back end schedule gauntlet totally unscathed and maybe 2 losses in there .. I think its Utes / Oregon again .. 

PAC FUTURES

UCLA 16-1 (BOL)

Okay last of the pac .. 16 is pretty universal right now .. UCLA basically the odd man out this year for oddsmakers with a good looking upper crust group and got Oreg State looking like they're ready to rock ....  they do lose DTR, Charb and Jake Bobo from maybe a top 10ish offense LY?.. I think the situation is better than it sounds they have some good QB options with Garbers, Collin Schlee and 5 star Dante Moore was flipped late from Oregon and showed up to compete in spring .. it does sounds like Garbers is a legit head above the others .. The market is not gunna love a move to DTR's backup but main thing we want is a guy that can run Chips offense .. we have to rely on the beat reporters because there was no spring game but between that and browsing the roster I'm not sensing a sure thing dead drop .. Harden at RB didn't get much action behind Charb but sounds like a legit RB1, Carson Steele from Ball State had 1500 yds is a big RB and makes a solid 1-2 punch .. Lose Bobo and Kazmir Allen but got a WR1 dude from Cal in Sturdivant who was just as productive as Bobo LY same good size .. rest of the WR's are back and Kyle Ford from USC was a contributor in a pretty deep unit for the Trojans .. OL and TE losses also replaced by the portal and the backups and bench of every unit is well retained .. Chip got the O to nearly a top 10 ranking LY after a loooong road with DTR and while that's not easy to repeat we also don't need that many chips to fall our way to be really loving the O this year.. 

The D was obvi a horror show Chip finally got some order of decency on that side in '20, '21 and looked like a possible leap to being good LY but totally fell back and the ugly came early vs So.Bama where Jags O just couldn't do anything wrong all day and maybe got worse from there .. Kelly's DC picks all failed to deliver. The situation is code red with a move to the B10 looming, they CANNOT show up in the B10 next year uncompetitive and also need to shake the perception of being the Clippers .. its the same thing A&M finally got away from and tried hard to prevent w UT going to the SEC .. the DC hire is a 'must win', Chip finally accepting advice hiring D'Anton Lynn who sounds like he came in pretty well recommended .. hard to guage the hire but NFL asst coach since 15 and running a secondary there for 5 years so at least hope he can whip the back end into shape and its much more promising in my view than Chip hiring another old pal .. As with the offense the roster basically loses a top guy from each unit but bring in a few good prospects and there's alot returning from starters down to the bench, no shortage of talent ratings .. need to X our fingers a little but I wouldn't look at the situation and count out the big turnaround we need .. 

Schedule is not impossibly tough but there are 3 rough roadies @Utah, @Oreg St and go x-town to USC ..  rest of the way its Wazoo, @Stan, CU, @AZ, ASU, Cal .. dodge Oreg or Wash .. PAC not doing divisions so need to land W's, great schedule to do that. Also the top PAC teams are basically in a round robin playing each other, very possible Bru Crew just holding the wins in the end .. UCLA was alone in the driver seat LY having beat the crap outta Utah and Washington before the horrible D let them down .. Think Kelly is purposefully being coy too no spring game, only team showing a 2022 roster online, keeping it close to the vest .. could be hiding a massive dud sure but I don't think we're that much of a long shot to see the Bruins back in the driver seat late in the year with an all around better team.. we'll see!

@Bridge1

 Ha, they have a middling record because every other year they're a dog in the white out, playing top 5 Ohio State. Last 2 years they've chosen Auburn and Minny and won those games. Last 2 times they chose white out for Michigan they beat them. Last Michigan trip to beaver was 2021 (Michigan first playoffs), it was an early game and the .500 Nits nearly knocked em off.