ULM looks like they could be in serious trouble this year .. I can't say for sure how it'll go for Army they took a dive last year on D after losing the good coordinator to Troy and think its new coordinator on O this year .. there's definitely reasons to doubt the Cadets but I think ULM could really fall off the map this year with heavy losses and in comes a team that's very competitive and will look to dominate running the ball .. If I knew Army was in great shape this year this would be a BP for sure but uncertainty there gotta go smaller .. good luck!
0
SMALLER
ULM / ARMY -7.5
ULM looks like they could be in serious trouble this year .. I can't say for sure how it'll go for Army they took a dive last year on D after losing the good coordinator to Troy and think its new coordinator on O this year .. there's definitely reasons to doubt the Cadets but I think ULM could really fall off the map this year with heavy losses and in comes a team that's very competitive and will look to dominate running the ball .. If I knew Army was in great shape this year this would be a BP for sure but uncertainty there gotta go smaller .. good luck!
Picked this up for a pinch at 14-1 when it first came out but FAN had the low limits going .. was gunna try to hit it harder but Caesars lookin pretty sharp this year dropped FAU off at 7.5-1 and probably signaled others to beware of puttin big odds on these guys .. had to put a rush order on playin 10-1 and hoping we see it there or higher at other shops but think it could be long gone ..
Was planning this to be a big play even before Thompson xferred in and just guessing that blew our cover and made books take a longer look at em .. Thompson aside we have a team with 80% ret pro and plenty of good talented units and think they way underperformed with Taggert just as FSU did before him .. welp in comes Tom Herman and he brings former CMU OC Charlie Frye who dug that program out of the gutter years ago .. not as sure with the DC but he helped build Buffalo's D with Leipold years back to something pretty formidable in Buff's glory years of 18/19 and had some assistant spots and Auburn analyst LY .. bottom line if Lance trusts him I do too .. So a really promising coaching change the ret pro off the charts and liked this before Thompson came in because the OC brought in Daniel Richardson who he recruited to CMU back in '19 and sounds like he throttled the D in the spring game and was already a great fit .. Thompson was Herman's recruit at Texas and idk if he's the sure thing to unseat Richardson after getting his seat taken at a few spots now .. there was almost a sure thing to step in at Mich State I think he shoulda gone there .. regardless we have 2 credible QB options and I feel real good about the prospects..
Big picture I think the conference is alot more likely to be in play this year .. AAC had 3 big behemoths leave but still have a few solid legacy teams in Tulane, SMU and Memphis plus add a solid in UTSA .. Not easy but FAU w very fortunate scheduling only meeting Tulane and UTSA and both at home .. huge ... really the question is whether anyone can stack up vs Tulane who was a beast LY .. very possible they steamroll the competition this year but some real questions w them they lost both coordinators and some of their best guys, Taje Spears was a legit NFL RB w 1500 yds LY and 200 rec, very tough to replace .. lose their top 3 WR's, Top 2 TE's, top 2 LB's, and all 3 from a really strong safety group are gone .. recently got a commitment from Andre Sam at safety but he changed his mind and going to LSU .. There's alot to like coming back but I'd also consider Tulane's epic turnaround was one year removed from a horrific year and the Wave has had no real consistency since their 1998 undefeated season .. I'd also add that besides those couple tough games FAU's conf schedule looks pretty easy w Tulsa, @USF, @Char, @UAB, ECU @Rice .. think Char and Rice are the only teams better this year and possibly USF although none strike me as likely to be tough competition .. the others are on my list to possibly fall dramatically .. UTSA has a pretty easy schedule too w just FAU, Tulane and UNT looking like the toughest but all 3 of those are on the road .. really like our chances to be holding the cards to at least sneak into the CCG and maybe make it a game .. good luck!
0
CONF FUTURES
FLORIDA ATLANTIC AAC 10-1 (FAN)
Picked this up for a pinch at 14-1 when it first came out but FAN had the low limits going .. was gunna try to hit it harder but Caesars lookin pretty sharp this year dropped FAU off at 7.5-1 and probably signaled others to beware of puttin big odds on these guys .. had to put a rush order on playin 10-1 and hoping we see it there or higher at other shops but think it could be long gone ..
Was planning this to be a big play even before Thompson xferred in and just guessing that blew our cover and made books take a longer look at em .. Thompson aside we have a team with 80% ret pro and plenty of good talented units and think they way underperformed with Taggert just as FSU did before him .. welp in comes Tom Herman and he brings former CMU OC Charlie Frye who dug that program out of the gutter years ago .. not as sure with the DC but he helped build Buffalo's D with Leipold years back to something pretty formidable in Buff's glory years of 18/19 and had some assistant spots and Auburn analyst LY .. bottom line if Lance trusts him I do too .. So a really promising coaching change the ret pro off the charts and liked this before Thompson came in because the OC brought in Daniel Richardson who he recruited to CMU back in '19 and sounds like he throttled the D in the spring game and was already a great fit .. Thompson was Herman's recruit at Texas and idk if he's the sure thing to unseat Richardson after getting his seat taken at a few spots now .. there was almost a sure thing to step in at Mich State I think he shoulda gone there .. regardless we have 2 credible QB options and I feel real good about the prospects..
Big picture I think the conference is alot more likely to be in play this year .. AAC had 3 big behemoths leave but still have a few solid legacy teams in Tulane, SMU and Memphis plus add a solid in UTSA .. Not easy but FAU w very fortunate scheduling only meeting Tulane and UTSA and both at home .. huge ... really the question is whether anyone can stack up vs Tulane who was a beast LY .. very possible they steamroll the competition this year but some real questions w them they lost both coordinators and some of their best guys, Taje Spears was a legit NFL RB w 1500 yds LY and 200 rec, very tough to replace .. lose their top 3 WR's, Top 2 TE's, top 2 LB's, and all 3 from a really strong safety group are gone .. recently got a commitment from Andre Sam at safety but he changed his mind and going to LSU .. There's alot to like coming back but I'd also consider Tulane's epic turnaround was one year removed from a horrific year and the Wave has had no real consistency since their 1998 undefeated season .. I'd also add that besides those couple tough games FAU's conf schedule looks pretty easy w Tulsa, @USF, @Char, @UAB, ECU @Rice .. think Char and Rice are the only teams better this year and possibly USF although none strike me as likely to be tough competition .. the others are on my list to possibly fall dramatically .. UTSA has a pretty easy schedule too w just FAU, Tulane and UNT looking like the toughest but all 3 of those are on the road .. really like our chances to be holding the cards to at least sneak into the CCG and maybe make it a game .. good luck!
Already said what I have to say w them and seems like Bet MGM is boasting the biggest odds I'll find w the Bears .. 100-1 is the most they put on anyone down with all the dregs of the conference Colorado, Stan in the super duper no prob come waste your money long shot tranche .. we'll not only need Cal turned around but in a much more major way than I can really hope for because there aint no sneaking into the conf champ game with their schedule .. @Wash, Oreg St, @Utah, USC, @Oreg, @UCLA .. they do catch a few of them some pretty nasty trap spots and we'll need every ounce of trap magic we can get to make a real run here .. end of the day really have hopes they can bring it together quick and just have a miracle year basically what I was doing with Wazoo LY that came oh not so close to cashing but was fun for a little while .. but yeah if it happens I don't want to just be bragging how I cashed a juiced up season win total, I want those F'ers to pay out their money grubbin a$$e$ .. good luck!
0
CONF FUTURES
CAL PAC 100-1 (MGM)
Already said what I have to say w them and seems like Bet MGM is boasting the biggest odds I'll find w the Bears .. 100-1 is the most they put on anyone down with all the dregs of the conference Colorado, Stan in the super duper no prob come waste your money long shot tranche .. we'll not only need Cal turned around but in a much more major way than I can really hope for because there aint no sneaking into the conf champ game with their schedule .. @Wash, Oreg St, @Utah, USC, @Oreg, @UCLA .. they do catch a few of them some pretty nasty trap spots and we'll need every ounce of trap magic we can get to make a real run here .. end of the day really have hopes they can bring it together quick and just have a miracle year basically what I was doing with Wazoo LY that came oh not so close to cashing but was fun for a little while .. but yeah if it happens I don't want to just be bragging how I cashed a juiced up season win total, I want those F'ers to pay out their money grubbin a$$e$ .. good luck!
Mentioned in a few posts what I'm thinking is in story for Kent State this year, maybe a massive drop off for them w a throttled roster and I think we get the first hint of that early on .. UCF's roster looks pretty good lot of experience and depth coming back and think year 1 in the big 12, week 1 in da bounce house its gunna be hammer meet nail .. assuming the read on the teams is right then my only real concern is I don't know what's behind plumlee at QB and we might see a bit of his backup and maybe even the backups backup .. that said Malzahn has not historically subbed out his QB1 often outside of injuries or if the game is very very well in hand .. that said he had the injury to Gabriel in '21 in week 3 .. Plum was injured in a few games last year .. Mikey Keene is off to Frenso and they really need to find someone so there's a risk the latter stages of the game aren't a score fest .. but yeah I think they could also 31 by halftime pretty easy en route to a MAJOR blowout and have to also assume Kent State brings in their subs and if the starters are ugly as expected then were talkin maybe a real bad FCS team sittin 1 layer down ..
1
BRIDGE PLAY
KENT STATE @ UCF -31.5
Mentioned in a few posts what I'm thinking is in story for Kent State this year, maybe a massive drop off for them w a throttled roster and I think we get the first hint of that early on .. UCF's roster looks pretty good lot of experience and depth coming back and think year 1 in the big 12, week 1 in da bounce house its gunna be hammer meet nail .. assuming the read on the teams is right then my only real concern is I don't know what's behind plumlee at QB and we might see a bit of his backup and maybe even the backups backup .. that said Malzahn has not historically subbed out his QB1 often outside of injuries or if the game is very very well in hand .. that said he had the injury to Gabriel in '21 in week 3 .. Plum was injured in a few games last year .. Mikey Keene is off to Frenso and they really need to find someone so there's a risk the latter stages of the game aren't a score fest .. but yeah I think they could also 31 by halftime pretty easy en route to a MAJOR blowout and have to also assume Kent State brings in their subs and if the starters are ugly as expected then were talkin maybe a real bad FCS team sittin 1 layer down ..
Wasn't really on my list to play but considering the state of the CUSA with just 7 teams eligible for the champ game we have a situation where making the champ game doesn't look impossible for almost anyone .. and 30-1 seems good for a pretty scrappy team that's got some massive motivation coming into year 1 of the new CUSA alignment .. the models are gunna be very mixed up on these guys we have a team that was 1-5 LY losses to FIU, UTEP and Nevada .. only win vs Hawaii .. and while the wins weren't much better after that its a team that did turn a big corner mid season and actually start winning .. this culminated in a massive smackdown @Liberty and whole this was perhapse a SEVERE dead spot for the Flames having slaughtered BYU and Arkansas then lost to Uconn then lost by 1 in their big game vs VA-Tech .. not much to play for and found out Freeze was leaving that week .. but NMSU did show up, at Liberty, where the fans really love the team, and there were no major injuries, and won by 5 TD's as nearly 4 TD underdogs .. +60 ATS MOV maybe the biggest LY ... nobody can question how UP for the bowl game BG was and NMSU showed they were a diff team by end of last year pulling off a win for a very motivated Falcons essentially on the road in the Detroit dome where I doubt more than a handful of NMSU fans made the trip .. big diff from start of the year..
Gotta credit Jerry Kill for the big change in quality of play and attitude and belief in the team taking a team that got THROTTLED by essentially a D2 squad in Tarleton State in 2020 to where they are now .. they also had some real team leaders LY namely LB Trevor Brohard and QB Diego Pavia .. they lose Brohard and a few other guys who stepped up for em last year but Pavia is an unquestioned leader and wouldn't have had trouble landing at a bigger program if he wanted but he's from NM, loves NMSU and is all about this team .. at least this year lol.. think we'll get a full season of Pavia instead of QB CO-starters like they did LY w Frakes .. they were -10 in TO's thru 5 games and -2 rest of the way when things started clicking .. they lose some of their best on D I don't see units throttled and many contributors return and a few big school xfers come in looking for a likely sure shot at playing time is a good sign .. more to like this year than the last 10 years or more combined lol ..
All that said this is a legit long shot and need some reason to think NMSU can string the wins together vs the lower CUSA comp but really need to find a way to slip past Liberty or WKY en route to a champ game run .. Liberty loses Freeze but brought in the Coastal Coaches and think enough on their roster to be pretty positive about the team .. my hangup is that none of the QB's were a leader in Freeze's read option attack and I don't see any being a 'G-MC' type of ultimate competitor QB that can run Chadwells tricky speed option offense and make the quick reads and few mistakes.. Salter was given every chance to be THE DUDE ly and basically fumbled that away, was totally unreliable .. they also lose some guys who were instrumental to their success the last few years namely Damario Douglas at WR .. 6th round to the PATS, and Durrell Johnson as a UDFA to the Cowboys .. W.KY looks like a team that could rip thru everyone after they RIPPED a very good S.Bama D to shreds in the bowl game, and no doubt the Jags showed up for that game.. Like what the O brings back but Hills have MASSIVE losses to a D that was critical to their success LY with some totally throttled .. my guess is they'll be inconsistent in enough games to make them a beatable .. other CUSA foes MTSU, LATech, UTEP could surprise but none look all that interesting and their odds are appropriately low, FIU is the only other big odds bomb in the conf but 50-1 for them isin't at all enticing .. good luck!
0
CONF FUTURES
NEW MEXICO ST CUSA 30-1 (FAN)
Wasn't really on my list to play but considering the state of the CUSA with just 7 teams eligible for the champ game we have a situation where making the champ game doesn't look impossible for almost anyone .. and 30-1 seems good for a pretty scrappy team that's got some massive motivation coming into year 1 of the new CUSA alignment .. the models are gunna be very mixed up on these guys we have a team that was 1-5 LY losses to FIU, UTEP and Nevada .. only win vs Hawaii .. and while the wins weren't much better after that its a team that did turn a big corner mid season and actually start winning .. this culminated in a massive smackdown @Liberty and whole this was perhapse a SEVERE dead spot for the Flames having slaughtered BYU and Arkansas then lost to Uconn then lost by 1 in their big game vs VA-Tech .. not much to play for and found out Freeze was leaving that week .. but NMSU did show up, at Liberty, where the fans really love the team, and there were no major injuries, and won by 5 TD's as nearly 4 TD underdogs .. +60 ATS MOV maybe the biggest LY ... nobody can question how UP for the bowl game BG was and NMSU showed they were a diff team by end of last year pulling off a win for a very motivated Falcons essentially on the road in the Detroit dome where I doubt more than a handful of NMSU fans made the trip .. big diff from start of the year..
Gotta credit Jerry Kill for the big change in quality of play and attitude and belief in the team taking a team that got THROTTLED by essentially a D2 squad in Tarleton State in 2020 to where they are now .. they also had some real team leaders LY namely LB Trevor Brohard and QB Diego Pavia .. they lose Brohard and a few other guys who stepped up for em last year but Pavia is an unquestioned leader and wouldn't have had trouble landing at a bigger program if he wanted but he's from NM, loves NMSU and is all about this team .. at least this year lol.. think we'll get a full season of Pavia instead of QB CO-starters like they did LY w Frakes .. they were -10 in TO's thru 5 games and -2 rest of the way when things started clicking .. they lose some of their best on D I don't see units throttled and many contributors return and a few big school xfers come in looking for a likely sure shot at playing time is a good sign .. more to like this year than the last 10 years or more combined lol ..
All that said this is a legit long shot and need some reason to think NMSU can string the wins together vs the lower CUSA comp but really need to find a way to slip past Liberty or WKY en route to a champ game run .. Liberty loses Freeze but brought in the Coastal Coaches and think enough on their roster to be pretty positive about the team .. my hangup is that none of the QB's were a leader in Freeze's read option attack and I don't see any being a 'G-MC' type of ultimate competitor QB that can run Chadwells tricky speed option offense and make the quick reads and few mistakes.. Salter was given every chance to be THE DUDE ly and basically fumbled that away, was totally unreliable .. they also lose some guys who were instrumental to their success the last few years namely Damario Douglas at WR .. 6th round to the PATS, and Durrell Johnson as a UDFA to the Cowboys .. W.KY looks like a team that could rip thru everyone after they RIPPED a very good S.Bama D to shreds in the bowl game, and no doubt the Jags showed up for that game.. Like what the O brings back but Hills have MASSIVE losses to a D that was critical to their success LY with some totally throttled .. my guess is they'll be inconsistent in enough games to make them a beatable .. other CUSA foes MTSU, LATech, UTEP could surprise but none look all that interesting and their odds are appropriately low, FIU is the only other big odds bomb in the conf but 50-1 for them isin't at all enticing .. good luck!
Love the pick...Kent State will be historically bad on many fronts...UCF has continuity at the key early personal with JRP back, GM, and coordinators...Plus UCF moving to Big 12 in 2023, so wins will be precious...Game at home...Payday for KSU...Thursday night game. Only factor that will prevent me from making a wager on this game too early is weather, and perhaps injuries to key person for UCF, like JRP. UCF lost their bowl game, bad...Will want to start the season well...What is the max number chalk you would give for UCF? I think with UCF down a notch, and KSU losing almost everything from last season, the public may not want to give that much chalk...That's my hope...Thank you for posting...UCF -31 or a reasonable spread, is definitely on my radar...only 3 months until the season starts...
Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:
BRIDGE PLAY KENT STATE @ UCF -31.5 Mentioned in a few posts what I'm thinking is in story for Kent State this year, maybe a massive drop off for them w a throttled roster and I think we get the first hint of that early on .. UCF's roster looks pretty good lot of experience and depth coming back and think year 1 in the big 12, week 1 in da bounce house its gunna be hammer meet nail .. assuming the read on the teams is right then my only real concern is I don't know what's behind plumlee at QB and we might see a bit of his backup and maybe even the backups backup .. that said Malzahn has not historically subbed out his QB1 often outside of injuries or if the game is very very well in hand .. that said he had the injury to Gabriel in '21 in week 3 .. Plum was injured in a few games last year .. Mikey Keene is off to Frenso and they really need to find someone so there's a risk the latter stages of the game aren't a score fest .. but yeah I think they could also 31 by halftime pretty easy en route to a MAJOR blowout and have to also assume Kent State brings in their subs and if the starters are ugly as expected then were talkin maybe a real bad FCS team sittin 1 layer down ..
LonghornHoosier
0
@Bridge1
Love the pick...Kent State will be historically bad on many fronts...UCF has continuity at the key early personal with JRP back, GM, and coordinators...Plus UCF moving to Big 12 in 2023, so wins will be precious...Game at home...Payday for KSU...Thursday night game. Only factor that will prevent me from making a wager on this game too early is weather, and perhaps injuries to key person for UCF, like JRP. UCF lost their bowl game, bad...Will want to start the season well...What is the max number chalk you would give for UCF? I think with UCF down a notch, and KSU losing almost everything from last season, the public may not want to give that much chalk...That's my hope...Thank you for posting...UCF -31 or a reasonable spread, is definitely on my radar...only 3 months until the season starts...
Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:
BRIDGE PLAY KENT STATE @ UCF -31.5 Mentioned in a few posts what I'm thinking is in story for Kent State this year, maybe a massive drop off for them w a throttled roster and I think we get the first hint of that early on .. UCF's roster looks pretty good lot of experience and depth coming back and think year 1 in the big 12, week 1 in da bounce house its gunna be hammer meet nail .. assuming the read on the teams is right then my only real concern is I don't know what's behind plumlee at QB and we might see a bit of his backup and maybe even the backups backup .. that said Malzahn has not historically subbed out his QB1 often outside of injuries or if the game is very very well in hand .. that said he had the injury to Gabriel in '21 in week 3 .. Plum was injured in a few games last year .. Mikey Keene is off to Frenso and they really need to find someone so there's a risk the latter stages of the game aren't a score fest .. but yeah I think they could also 31 by halftime pretty easy en route to a MAJOR blowout and have to also assume Kent State brings in their subs and if the starters are ugly as expected then were talkin maybe a real bad FCS team sittin 1 layer down ..
Good stuff idk what I'd play it to I don't like gettin chalkey pre-ssn but will take a shot at that one .. last time I layed 30+ for week 1 was Kentucky vs ULM and needed a minor miracle to hit it after the cats dicked around most of the first quarter, backup QB hit the money shot w coach letting him put a drive together and score a TD w a few seconds left .. yeah injuries is a risk for sure and the garbage time backup QB thing I mentioned .. but also were really banking on Kent State being just totally inept here and entirely possible a grad xfer QB or someone just says F it and signs on to get a sure thing starting spot, if so I'd be a little worried .. so yeah def a pre-ssn grade level BP ..
Yeah for the big week 1 lines I really like the strong backup QB or the dueling QB battle going on, guys competing and lookin to throw scores, etc .. took a Bite outta Bama -37 with that idea in mind .. decent trio of QB's and even if Saban picked a starter by then I don't see how they aren't lettin QB's spin it all game to get that needed practice or figure out whose QB2, etc ..
0
@LonghornHoosier
Good stuff idk what I'd play it to I don't like gettin chalkey pre-ssn but will take a shot at that one .. last time I layed 30+ for week 1 was Kentucky vs ULM and needed a minor miracle to hit it after the cats dicked around most of the first quarter, backup QB hit the money shot w coach letting him put a drive together and score a TD w a few seconds left .. yeah injuries is a risk for sure and the garbage time backup QB thing I mentioned .. but also were really banking on Kent State being just totally inept here and entirely possible a grad xfer QB or someone just says F it and signs on to get a sure thing starting spot, if so I'd be a little worried .. so yeah def a pre-ssn grade level BP ..
Yeah for the big week 1 lines I really like the strong backup QB or the dueling QB battle going on, guys competing and lookin to throw scores, etc .. took a Bite outta Bama -37 with that idea in mind .. decent trio of QB's and even if Saban picked a starter by then I don't see how they aren't lettin QB's spin it all game to get that needed practice or figure out whose QB2, etc ..
Wildcats looking like a possible surprise team this year at least relative to the massive stench they were giving off last year on offense.. can't rely on the models too much for these teams we have a sure thing elite UGA team that's gunna be crunched by regression and we have Kentucky going thru some transitioning but at least noting some value as the models with some HFA for UGA put this one at about 21ish .. think the main thing to like getting massive points is this series has been an absolute slugfest the last few years with both defenses being very good at limiting explosive plays and offenses just aiming to take what they're given keeping plays short but successful and results are alotta loooong time consuming drives .. tack on UGA's change at OC, Mike Bobo ran an unbelievably slow huddle up offense at S.Car a few yrs back, I didn't quite see that in the G spring gm but it wasn't hurry up either and would expect a slower pace O generally.. Kirby also really loves to murder a game clock when he's up big too .. also can't ignore the new clock rules and think the biggest impacts will be on the larger lines in competitive conf games where teams start really trying to run the clock out late .. I can't say what the impact will be for all types of games but think a key driver is maybe first downs per scoring drive or something like that and if so good chance we end up with fewer plays and drives than we normally would..
As for the Cats I think there's alot to like in terms of improvement this year starting w Liam Cohen coming back .. if you were ever looking for how coordinator changes can impact a team look no further .. wasn't the exact same personnel in '22 vs '21 but close enough, SP+ had a dip of 8 points and huge part of that was a hit to the run game, even w rodriguez toting the rock again they had a full 2 yds/carry drop in conf play, went from maybe elite rush in '21 to straight up bad LY .. lose rodriguez but add a real good RB in Ray Davis from Vandy and not real worried about them finding 1-2 suitable backups .. also bring in Devin Leary, tough to gauge but my read is that none of the O struggles at NC State were on him it was another case of horrible run game probs and think if it was even just average they're hoisting an ACC championship trophy back in '21 when Leary he had a MONSTER year 66%, 35-5 .. NC State's O struggled out the gate LY vs ECU, shoulda lost, terrible run game again but were 5-1 at one point and beat FSU .. Leary injured and team fell apart w L's to Cuse, BC, Ville and MD in the bowl and full blame on the O for the epic meltdown .. think we can say Leary is a diff maker with big potential and maybe a big year in store by teaming up w Cohen .. theres more to like than that in some other units but big picture is think the O gets itself turned around .. D has another coordinator we can trust in Brad White I have some questions on that side but not alot of certified concerns ..
Taking now I think by week 6 the books will be more dialed in on the things to like on UK and some of the other factors that could/should shorten up this game .. certainly possible UGA looks like a monster early on but I can't see this line going much higher w out some catastrophic injury .. think pretty good chance UK is more like +17-20 by game week w books recalling how the prior matchups turned out and coming up w a clearer picture .. good luck!
0
SMALLER
GEORGIA / KENTUCKY +24 (FAN)
Wildcats looking like a possible surprise team this year at least relative to the massive stench they were giving off last year on offense.. can't rely on the models too much for these teams we have a sure thing elite UGA team that's gunna be crunched by regression and we have Kentucky going thru some transitioning but at least noting some value as the models with some HFA for UGA put this one at about 21ish .. think the main thing to like getting massive points is this series has been an absolute slugfest the last few years with both defenses being very good at limiting explosive plays and offenses just aiming to take what they're given keeping plays short but successful and results are alotta loooong time consuming drives .. tack on UGA's change at OC, Mike Bobo ran an unbelievably slow huddle up offense at S.Car a few yrs back, I didn't quite see that in the G spring gm but it wasn't hurry up either and would expect a slower pace O generally.. Kirby also really loves to murder a game clock when he's up big too .. also can't ignore the new clock rules and think the biggest impacts will be on the larger lines in competitive conf games where teams start really trying to run the clock out late .. I can't say what the impact will be for all types of games but think a key driver is maybe first downs per scoring drive or something like that and if so good chance we end up with fewer plays and drives than we normally would..
As for the Cats I think there's alot to like in terms of improvement this year starting w Liam Cohen coming back .. if you were ever looking for how coordinator changes can impact a team look no further .. wasn't the exact same personnel in '22 vs '21 but close enough, SP+ had a dip of 8 points and huge part of that was a hit to the run game, even w rodriguez toting the rock again they had a full 2 yds/carry drop in conf play, went from maybe elite rush in '21 to straight up bad LY .. lose rodriguez but add a real good RB in Ray Davis from Vandy and not real worried about them finding 1-2 suitable backups .. also bring in Devin Leary, tough to gauge but my read is that none of the O struggles at NC State were on him it was another case of horrible run game probs and think if it was even just average they're hoisting an ACC championship trophy back in '21 when Leary he had a MONSTER year 66%, 35-5 .. NC State's O struggled out the gate LY vs ECU, shoulda lost, terrible run game again but were 5-1 at one point and beat FSU .. Leary injured and team fell apart w L's to Cuse, BC, Ville and MD in the bowl and full blame on the O for the epic meltdown .. think we can say Leary is a diff maker with big potential and maybe a big year in store by teaming up w Cohen .. theres more to like than that in some other units but big picture is think the O gets itself turned around .. D has another coordinator we can trust in Brad White I have some questions on that side but not alot of certified concerns ..
Taking now I think by week 6 the books will be more dialed in on the things to like on UK and some of the other factors that could/should shorten up this game .. certainly possible UGA looks like a monster early on but I can't see this line going much higher w out some catastrophic injury .. think pretty good chance UK is more like +17-20 by game week w books recalling how the prior matchups turned out and coming up w a clearer picture .. good luck!
I agree on Kentucky. Big fan of Leary. I think he'll work out fine in Levis place. It might even work out a little better on offense with a couple more starters back this year and perhaps a little less pressure on an offense that's not run by a high ranked NFL prospect. I've never seen UK play scared against UGA. I also think a nice blowout by UGA of of a bad Auburn team the week before would probably help our cause with UK +24 the next week. I've already taken UK over 6.5 wins. Although that bet is getting more expensive.
1
I agree on Kentucky. Big fan of Leary. I think he'll work out fine in Levis place. It might even work out a little better on offense with a couple more starters back this year and perhaps a little less pressure on an offense that's not run by a high ranked NFL prospect. I've never seen UK play scared against UGA. I also think a nice blowout by UGA of of a bad Auburn team the week before would probably help our cause with UK +24 the next week. I've already taken UK over 6.5 wins. Although that bet is getting more expensive.
We made it .. First roundup of 2023 .. BRIDGE PLAYS:OSU @ NOTRE DAME +8.5ARKANSAS @ BAMA -18FLA STATE / LSU -1BAMA / LSU +8.5COLO @ TCU -20 SMALLER:OHIO STATE / PENN ST +10.5MICH / OHIO STATE +3.5MICH ST / WASH -10.5IOWA @ PENN ST -10PENN ST / MICH -1.5CLEMSON / FSU +3BAMA / TENN +8.5MINNY / NEB +8USC / WASH +7USC @ OREG -2 REG SSN WINS:CAL OVER 4.5 -140ARIZONA OVER 4.5 -122WISCONSIN OVER 8.5 -110GEORGIA TECH OVER 4.5 +120WASHINGTON UNDER 9.5 -134OREG. STATE UNDER 8.5 -142E.CAROLINA UNDER 6.5 -134CINCINNATI UNDER 5.5 -150KENT STATE UNDER 2.5 -118LOUISVILLE UNDER 8.5 -140N.TEXAS UNDER 7.5 -130UAB UNDER 5.5 -110CONF FUTURESUTAH PAC 6-1TCU B12 16-1UCLA PAC 16-1MIAMI ACC 20-1DUKE ACC 50-1ARIZONA PAC 100-1GEORGIA TECH ACC 200-1 HEISMANCARSON BECK 40-1GRAYSON MCCALL 250-1TANNER MORDECHAI 125-1 NATTYOHIO STATE 8.5-1TEXAS 30-1 FUN PARLAYS:CONF CHAMPS: UGA, CLEM, WISCO 43-1BAMA GOY FADE: TEX +7.5, @A&M+8.5, TENN+8.5, LSU+8.5 12-1
Going on a much needed 3 day vacation….you once again provide outstanding deep-dive reading material. I’ll try and chime in some thoughts. Mahalo always Bridge
The impossible only takes longer….
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Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:
We made it .. First roundup of 2023 .. BRIDGE PLAYS:OSU @ NOTRE DAME +8.5ARKANSAS @ BAMA -18FLA STATE / LSU -1BAMA / LSU +8.5COLO @ TCU -20 SMALLER:OHIO STATE / PENN ST +10.5MICH / OHIO STATE +3.5MICH ST / WASH -10.5IOWA @ PENN ST -10PENN ST / MICH -1.5CLEMSON / FSU +3BAMA / TENN +8.5MINNY / NEB +8USC / WASH +7USC @ OREG -2 REG SSN WINS:CAL OVER 4.5 -140ARIZONA OVER 4.5 -122WISCONSIN OVER 8.5 -110GEORGIA TECH OVER 4.5 +120WASHINGTON UNDER 9.5 -134OREG. STATE UNDER 8.5 -142E.CAROLINA UNDER 6.5 -134CINCINNATI UNDER 5.5 -150KENT STATE UNDER 2.5 -118LOUISVILLE UNDER 8.5 -140N.TEXAS UNDER 7.5 -130UAB UNDER 5.5 -110CONF FUTURESUTAH PAC 6-1TCU B12 16-1UCLA PAC 16-1MIAMI ACC 20-1DUKE ACC 50-1ARIZONA PAC 100-1GEORGIA TECH ACC 200-1 HEISMANCARSON BECK 40-1GRAYSON MCCALL 250-1TANNER MORDECHAI 125-1 NATTYOHIO STATE 8.5-1TEXAS 30-1 FUN PARLAYS:CONF CHAMPS: UGA, CLEM, WISCO 43-1BAMA GOY FADE: TEX +7.5, @A&M+8.5, TENN+8.5, LSU+8.5 12-1
Going on a much needed 3 day vacation….you once again provide outstanding deep-dive reading material. I’ll try and chime in some thoughts. Mahalo always Bridge
Yeah Doc good to hear you;ve taken a peek at em and seein a few things to like .. I was close to pulling the trigger on 6.5 wins, really not wanting to another big juiced up number but on the radar so still might .. I think my only real hangup after lookin at the rosters is on the OL.. that unit used to be just a total factory but good coaches have gone think Bama now has the last good one to leave and have a good one coach still but not getting the Dare Rosenthal's from the portal anymore instead they lose their 5 star stud Goodwin who was supposed to fill a big hole at OT which is a lingering question and just the overall talent and numbers is less than ideal and I know they added some guys in the portal but just kinda want to hear how it shakes out before taking a season future shot ..
Also not 'concerned' on D I can't see them being that bad if they were able to scheme around the deficiencies LY .. the coverage was so killer but lose some of the best guys that stepped up LY .. pass rush / TFL's were fairly non existent .. kinda hoping we hear they found a few promising replacements, depth and maybe found a pass rusher... no spring game makes the questions tougher so gunna check w Phil first see what he says .. But UK is def on the radar, hope to find a few times to play em this year..
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@DrStrangelove
Yeah Doc good to hear you;ve taken a peek at em and seein a few things to like .. I was close to pulling the trigger on 6.5 wins, really not wanting to another big juiced up number but on the radar so still might .. I think my only real hangup after lookin at the rosters is on the OL.. that unit used to be just a total factory but good coaches have gone think Bama now has the last good one to leave and have a good one coach still but not getting the Dare Rosenthal's from the portal anymore instead they lose their 5 star stud Goodwin who was supposed to fill a big hole at OT which is a lingering question and just the overall talent and numbers is less than ideal and I know they added some guys in the portal but just kinda want to hear how it shakes out before taking a season future shot ..
Also not 'concerned' on D I can't see them being that bad if they were able to scheme around the deficiencies LY .. the coverage was so killer but lose some of the best guys that stepped up LY .. pass rush / TFL's were fairly non existent .. kinda hoping we hear they found a few promising replacements, depth and maybe found a pass rusher... no spring game makes the questions tougher so gunna check w Phil first see what he says .. But UK is def on the radar, hope to find a few times to play em this year..
BRIDGE PLAYS: OSU @ NOTRE DAME +8.5 KENT STATE @ UCF -31.5 L'VILLE @ GA TECH +9.5 ARKANSAS @ BAMA -18 UTAH ST/ IOWA -17.5 FLA STATE / LSU -1 BAMA / LSU +8.5 COLO @ TCU -20
SMALLER: OHIO STATE / PENN ST +10.5 GEORGIA / KENTUCKY +24 E.CAROLINA @ MICH -35.5 MICH / OHIO STATE +3.5 MICH ST / WASH -10.5 IOWA @ PENN ST -10 PENN ST / MICH -1.5 CLEMSON / FSU +3 BAMA / TENN +8.5 ULM / ARMY -7.5 MINNY / NEB +8 USC / WASH +7 USC @ OREG -2
REG SSN WINS: CAL OVER 4.5 -140 UCONN OVER 4.5 -130 ARIZONA OVER 4.5 -122 WISCONSIN OVER 8.5 -110 GEORGIA TECH OVER 4.5 +120 WASHINGTON UNDER 9.5 -134 OREG. STATE UNDER 8.5 -142 E.CAROLINA UNDER 6.5 -134 CINCINNATI UNDER 5.5 -150 LOUISVILLE UNDER 8.5 -140 KENT STATE UNDER 2.5 -118 KENT STATE UNDER 3 -125 APP STATE UNDER 7 -115 N.TEXAS UNDER 7.5 -130 UAB UNDER 5.5 -110
BRIDGE PLAYS: OSU @ NOTRE DAME +8.5 KENT STATE @ UCF -31.5 L'VILLE @ GA TECH +9.5 ARKANSAS @ BAMA -18 UTAH ST/ IOWA -17.5 FLA STATE / LSU -1 BAMA / LSU +8.5 COLO @ TCU -20
SMALLER: OHIO STATE / PENN ST +10.5 GEORGIA / KENTUCKY +24 E.CAROLINA @ MICH -35.5 MICH / OHIO STATE +3.5 MICH ST / WASH -10.5 IOWA @ PENN ST -10 PENN ST / MICH -1.5 CLEMSON / FSU +3 BAMA / TENN +8.5 ULM / ARMY -7.5 MINNY / NEB +8 USC / WASH +7 USC @ OREG -2
REG SSN WINS: CAL OVER 4.5 -140 UCONN OVER 4.5 -130 ARIZONA OVER 4.5 -122 WISCONSIN OVER 8.5 -110 GEORGIA TECH OVER 4.5 +120 WASHINGTON UNDER 9.5 -134 OREG. STATE UNDER 8.5 -142 E.CAROLINA UNDER 6.5 -134 CINCINNATI UNDER 5.5 -150 LOUISVILLE UNDER 8.5 -140 KENT STATE UNDER 2.5 -118 KENT STATE UNDER 3 -125 APP STATE UNDER 7 -115 N.TEXAS UNDER 7.5 -130 UAB UNDER 5.5 -110
Was hoping we'd see 17 but Caesars upends another cart for me and puts this one at 14, I think assuring us that the line will hover around that number .. posted a bit about liking Miami this year to get turned around and just a by product of a busted season we're getting a massive line in a huge rivalry game .. I think books already have the right idea dropping the big UF finale down a few points under 10 .. this is another game thats wayyyy out and there's some injury risks or season not going right / players mailing it in, etc .. but same for FSU might have 2 losses already and more/less out of the playoffs and we often see sure shot NFL talents managing their injury risk late in the year in those situations .. either way its a massive hard rivalry gunna be very hard fought, thinking very good shot for UM to keep it close this year ..
... and a few other notes on my bama plays ..
LSU / BAMA knocked down pretty significantly at BOL, Tigers at +4 -115 .. totally agree w the move, think its entirely possible we have an even tighter line come game week .. really tough to make bama less than a TD fav at home esp in the pre-ssn but I don't think BOL is taking an extreme outlier position because they're being dumb here, must be happy to take on some Bama -4 action with reduced odds .. think it's alot to do with the outlook for LSU this year could be a real monster brewin there and at least one book is warmed up to that idea .. I cleared out the last 7.5 I could find over at FD (sorry) but think that's a good play and still have +7 at FD and CZR's .. the game is a wayyyyys out and totally possible the tables turn on us, but free TD in that one feels pretty good to me...
Already posted Tenn +8.5 @Bama but bagged a +10.5 and still seeing some +10's out there .. I don't quite get the books giving us a bigger line think its realllly hard to give a wild offense like Tenn over a TD unless they are fairly sure Bama's D is gunna play lockdown like UGA did LY .. even then its tough to imagine Bama's O will be nearly as strong as the Bulldogs' was LY .. that Bama environment is certainly gunna be a test for Milton but they got a lotta weapons to work with and coaches sure know how to use them ..
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SMALLER
FSU / MIAMI +16.5 (BOL)
Was hoping we'd see 17 but Caesars upends another cart for me and puts this one at 14, I think assuring us that the line will hover around that number .. posted a bit about liking Miami this year to get turned around and just a by product of a busted season we're getting a massive line in a huge rivalry game .. I think books already have the right idea dropping the big UF finale down a few points under 10 .. this is another game thats wayyyy out and there's some injury risks or season not going right / players mailing it in, etc .. but same for FSU might have 2 losses already and more/less out of the playoffs and we often see sure shot NFL talents managing their injury risk late in the year in those situations .. either way its a massive hard rivalry gunna be very hard fought, thinking very good shot for UM to keep it close this year ..
... and a few other notes on my bama plays ..
LSU / BAMA knocked down pretty significantly at BOL, Tigers at +4 -115 .. totally agree w the move, think its entirely possible we have an even tighter line come game week .. really tough to make bama less than a TD fav at home esp in the pre-ssn but I don't think BOL is taking an extreme outlier position because they're being dumb here, must be happy to take on some Bama -4 action with reduced odds .. think it's alot to do with the outlook for LSU this year could be a real monster brewin there and at least one book is warmed up to that idea .. I cleared out the last 7.5 I could find over at FD (sorry) but think that's a good play and still have +7 at FD and CZR's .. the game is a wayyyyys out and totally possible the tables turn on us, but free TD in that one feels pretty good to me...
Already posted Tenn +8.5 @Bama but bagged a +10.5 and still seeing some +10's out there .. I don't quite get the books giving us a bigger line think its realllly hard to give a wild offense like Tenn over a TD unless they are fairly sure Bama's D is gunna play lockdown like UGA did LY .. even then its tough to imagine Bama's O will be nearly as strong as the Bulldogs' was LY .. that Bama environment is certainly gunna be a test for Milton but they got a lotta weapons to work with and coaches sure know how to use them ..
Breakin my rules again with the big week 1 lines but will take a small stab here .. w such a massive line we need some efficient scoring from Bama's offense and just total lockdown level defense and need that kinda fire to be blazin for the full 60 mins .. think it helps Bama has a massive showdown looming vs the Horns and should see a heavy does of the same cast slated to play in that game .. anyone still battling for unsettled starting or depth spots should give their max effort every play of the game .. I'm not as worried about the D, they project as possibly the best in CFB and even if some returning starters call it a day early the Tide are rollin 3 deep in 5 star talents and added some proven xfers, should see a real battle for any kinda playing time on that side ...
I think were getting a lower line than we normally might because of the uncertainty at QB but that's actually the dynamic that I think gives us a spark having 3 capable but inexp battling for spots .. QB1 may or may not be up for grabs maybe its a battle for QB2 idk but I think we'll see the starting O out for much of the game to give coaches a real look at how each plays .. Maybe not hyper aggressive playcalling with tons of deep shots but coaches def need to see how each puts scoring drives together and we should get play calling that helps them do that .. We saw a few spots last year w Saban basically puttin on a tryout for his young WR group in easy early games and led to some offensive fireworks scoring in the mid 50's and 60's .. obvi having Bryce Young leading those workouts was helpful. The WR's sound more solidified this year but Bama needs to see the offense be more explosive esp their inexp QB's in the pass game.. recall LY vs UT it wasn't so much an ineffective pass game but Saban called it conservatively everything was very short 70% comps for only 5.5 per completion.. just one real big explosive play was the 80 yd TD run that came early on and only got a W on the late heroics from Young.. welp there's no BY this year and think the risk for Bama vs UT is again lack of explosiveness .. don't think Saban needs my recommendation to make that an area of focus in this game .. anyway think we get a big game that doesn't quit late as the personnel changes .. full 60 drubbin .. good luck!
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SMALLER
MTSU @ BAMA -37
Breakin my rules again with the big week 1 lines but will take a small stab here .. w such a massive line we need some efficient scoring from Bama's offense and just total lockdown level defense and need that kinda fire to be blazin for the full 60 mins .. think it helps Bama has a massive showdown looming vs the Horns and should see a heavy does of the same cast slated to play in that game .. anyone still battling for unsettled starting or depth spots should give their max effort every play of the game .. I'm not as worried about the D, they project as possibly the best in CFB and even if some returning starters call it a day early the Tide are rollin 3 deep in 5 star talents and added some proven xfers, should see a real battle for any kinda playing time on that side ...
I think were getting a lower line than we normally might because of the uncertainty at QB but that's actually the dynamic that I think gives us a spark having 3 capable but inexp battling for spots .. QB1 may or may not be up for grabs maybe its a battle for QB2 idk but I think we'll see the starting O out for much of the game to give coaches a real look at how each plays .. Maybe not hyper aggressive playcalling with tons of deep shots but coaches def need to see how each puts scoring drives together and we should get play calling that helps them do that .. We saw a few spots last year w Saban basically puttin on a tryout for his young WR group in easy early games and led to some offensive fireworks scoring in the mid 50's and 60's .. obvi having Bryce Young leading those workouts was helpful. The WR's sound more solidified this year but Bama needs to see the offense be more explosive esp their inexp QB's in the pass game.. recall LY vs UT it wasn't so much an ineffective pass game but Saban called it conservatively everything was very short 70% comps for only 5.5 per completion.. just one real big explosive play was the 80 yd TD run that came early on and only got a W on the late heroics from Young.. welp there's no BY this year and think the risk for Bama vs UT is again lack of explosiveness .. don't think Saban needs my recommendation to make that an area of focus in this game .. anyway think we get a big game that doesn't quit late as the personnel changes .. full 60 drubbin .. good luck!
^^ Not blindly ignoring MTSU btw there are a few things to like w them namely they had a few very solid guys on their DL they lose one of their best guys in Jordan Ferguson and a great LB but they have a couple star returning and alot of their depth .. but as far as the star talent think MT is not real deep and shouldn't be getting a full game outta their sure thing stars in a blowout scenario .. there's also a fair amount back on O too but huge hole left w Chase Cunningham's departure and they should have a battle between a JC xfer and LY's backup .. they also got dinged hard at WR, decent group LY and top 3 pretty solid guys exiting plus another backup, no production from TE's LY so its a real question who the rec targets are .. also their OL stuuuunk LY ruined numerous games for them and even w alot of guys back I wouldn't expect them to be effective at all in this game .. looking at the roster we see a total lack of size w 2 guys at 310 and 4 more around 300 and drops quick after that w basically the 2nd string all around 290.. think good chance Bama's DL feasts in the trenches and could be totally inept if backups play..
All that said there's alot back for MT this year including a few stars and the WR group did get a few guys from the portal .. the JC xfer was a real star AA and if he or the other QB they have can play and they find some WR targets then this team def profiles much better than some MT teams have in the recent past .. they don't have such a rough schedule would def check them out for an RSW play if Phil can help us clear up some of the questions .. also play Bama and Mizzzoo early on and could be a play on team after getting kicked around early on..
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^^ Not blindly ignoring MTSU btw there are a few things to like w them namely they had a few very solid guys on their DL they lose one of their best guys in Jordan Ferguson and a great LB but they have a couple star returning and alot of their depth .. but as far as the star talent think MT is not real deep and shouldn't be getting a full game outta their sure thing stars in a blowout scenario .. there's also a fair amount back on O too but huge hole left w Chase Cunningham's departure and they should have a battle between a JC xfer and LY's backup .. they also got dinged hard at WR, decent group LY and top 3 pretty solid guys exiting plus another backup, no production from TE's LY so its a real question who the rec targets are .. also their OL stuuuunk LY ruined numerous games for them and even w alot of guys back I wouldn't expect them to be effective at all in this game .. looking at the roster we see a total lack of size w 2 guys at 310 and 4 more around 300 and drops quick after that w basically the 2nd string all around 290.. think good chance Bama's DL feasts in the trenches and could be totally inept if backups play..
All that said there's alot back for MT this year including a few stars and the WR group did get a few guys from the portal .. the JC xfer was a real star AA and if he or the other QB they have can play and they find some WR targets then this team def profiles much better than some MT teams have in the recent past .. they don't have such a rough schedule would def check them out for an RSW play if Phil can help us clear up some of the questions .. also play Bama and Mizzzoo early on and could be a play on team after getting kicked around early on..
Need the big odds because Toledo looks like a real behemoth once again and rightfully getting very low odds +165 for the MAC .. Huskies are getting bigger than expected odds however because LY of their Champ run was a total horror show, lost a good bit of their defense and suffered some ugly pre-ssn injuries to their star WR and RB and cherry on top was losing Rocky Lombardi early on I think before they even made it to conf play .. things weren't on a great track already and went south in a hurry after the QB injury .. I thought Lombardi graduated but apparently got a medical year .. reports said he was limited in the spring but a full go for their spring game and that's huge he might not have the huge numbers but he can absolutely run that offense .. they lose the good RB Waylee to Wyoming but the backup had a solid year and add Gavin Williams from Iowa whose obvi looking to be alot more productive away from the Hawkeyes offense and wouldn't look at his numbers and judge him too quick .. recall chuck sizzle just needed a new team .. Huskies also get the good receiver Rudolph back and do need to find some new targets w the top 2 leaving but lot of guys return in the unit .. Maybe best part is alot of that OL during the champ run were FR or RS FR and the run game was tops in the nation in some raw categories.. they retain a good number of guys plus the offensive coaches are retained from their championship year .. no unit is throttled in terms of numbers and think if they can stay healthy I think its a major turnaround .. Defense we need to X our fingers a little but they were a very young group ton of young guys last year and the results weren't fantastic but they bring back a ton of experience and almost all the depth with a few units completely in tact .. its not a sure thing turnaround but its a profile that could effect one and for longer 20+ish odds I think that's what we're looking for ..
Making the champ game won't be easy and likely comes down to beating Toledo early in the season on the road .. not easy but Toledo has been in this 'behemoth' role for a few years now and finally won the conf LY but still lost a few inexplicable games .. and its the wacky MAC I wouldn't count anything as a sure thing .. but yeah the window is much narrower if they can't win that one NILL doesn't have the easiest schedule but neither does Toledo w a couple B2B conf roadies, draw Miami OH and Buffalo out of the other division get the Redbirds and YE showdown w CMU on the road .. end of the day unless Toledo is truly far and away better than everyone then I'd give NILL a fighting chance w a few other teams given the big turnaround potential .. they were prob 50-1 or more 2 years ago when they pulled the conf shocker and yeah that's kinda just how the MAC rolls so .. boom go huskies ..
BOL just dropped their G5 conf futures and my bet sent this down to 20-1 but think you can get NILL at FAN for about the same or maybe better odds, so def shop around .. good luck!
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CONF FUTURES
N.ILLINOIS MAC 25-1 (BOL)
Need the big odds because Toledo looks like a real behemoth once again and rightfully getting very low odds +165 for the MAC .. Huskies are getting bigger than expected odds however because LY of their Champ run was a total horror show, lost a good bit of their defense and suffered some ugly pre-ssn injuries to their star WR and RB and cherry on top was losing Rocky Lombardi early on I think before they even made it to conf play .. things weren't on a great track already and went south in a hurry after the QB injury .. I thought Lombardi graduated but apparently got a medical year .. reports said he was limited in the spring but a full go for their spring game and that's huge he might not have the huge numbers but he can absolutely run that offense .. they lose the good RB Waylee to Wyoming but the backup had a solid year and add Gavin Williams from Iowa whose obvi looking to be alot more productive away from the Hawkeyes offense and wouldn't look at his numbers and judge him too quick .. recall chuck sizzle just needed a new team .. Huskies also get the good receiver Rudolph back and do need to find some new targets w the top 2 leaving but lot of guys return in the unit .. Maybe best part is alot of that OL during the champ run were FR or RS FR and the run game was tops in the nation in some raw categories.. they retain a good number of guys plus the offensive coaches are retained from their championship year .. no unit is throttled in terms of numbers and think if they can stay healthy I think its a major turnaround .. Defense we need to X our fingers a little but they were a very young group ton of young guys last year and the results weren't fantastic but they bring back a ton of experience and almost all the depth with a few units completely in tact .. its not a sure thing turnaround but its a profile that could effect one and for longer 20+ish odds I think that's what we're looking for ..
Making the champ game won't be easy and likely comes down to beating Toledo early in the season on the road .. not easy but Toledo has been in this 'behemoth' role for a few years now and finally won the conf LY but still lost a few inexplicable games .. and its the wacky MAC I wouldn't count anything as a sure thing .. but yeah the window is much narrower if they can't win that one NILL doesn't have the easiest schedule but neither does Toledo w a couple B2B conf roadies, draw Miami OH and Buffalo out of the other division get the Redbirds and YE showdown w CMU on the road .. end of the day unless Toledo is truly far and away better than everyone then I'd give NILL a fighting chance w a few other teams given the big turnaround potential .. they were prob 50-1 or more 2 years ago when they pulled the conf shocker and yeah that's kinda just how the MAC rolls so .. boom go huskies ..
BOL just dropped their G5 conf futures and my bet sent this down to 20-1 but think you can get NILL at FAN for about the same or maybe better odds, so def shop around .. good luck!
Gunna take one longer MAC shot, we're not getting the ridiculous odds on the zips or BG like LY up in the 100, 150, 250-1 range so just gunna limit my shot to this one .. Akron did finally start playing like a team and started winning a couple games .. I'm not gaga over the profile but DJ Irons is a dual threat stud at QB and they have a few RB's to like added from the portal and at least appears to have decent numbers in every unit to effect a turnaround .. I think Joe Moorhead will get these guys turned around maybe to compete for a bowl although it could be a year away, but good offensive coach and obvi we'll need the lighting to strike this year.. on D we gotta like Tibesar who took Oregon State's defense from a putrid hellscape to at least somewhat capable when he was there .. gunna need both sides to come together in a major way at the same time to even sniff a hedging opportunity .. but Akron did pull themselves out of the Deeeeep gutter and showed some life LY and has alot of guys back so at 50-1 we can have fun for a maction packed year for them .. The good news is they are in the easier division and have a reasonable schedule avoiding toledo and getting Ohio, Buffalo and NILL at home .. still gotta win a few tough roadies ..
I only have 2 outs for MAC futures and 50-1 funny feeling we'll get juicier than that so I dropped half a bet now and will def search around for something better .. books much shy'er about giving us the monster futures odds w MAC so wacky but I could def see a 100-1 avail itself at some point .. good luck .. go zips lol!!!!
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CONF FUTURES
AKRON MAC 50-1
Gunna take one longer MAC shot, we're not getting the ridiculous odds on the zips or BG like LY up in the 100, 150, 250-1 range so just gunna limit my shot to this one .. Akron did finally start playing like a team and started winning a couple games .. I'm not gaga over the profile but DJ Irons is a dual threat stud at QB and they have a few RB's to like added from the portal and at least appears to have decent numbers in every unit to effect a turnaround .. I think Joe Moorhead will get these guys turned around maybe to compete for a bowl although it could be a year away, but good offensive coach and obvi we'll need the lighting to strike this year.. on D we gotta like Tibesar who took Oregon State's defense from a putrid hellscape to at least somewhat capable when he was there .. gunna need both sides to come together in a major way at the same time to even sniff a hedging opportunity .. but Akron did pull themselves out of the Deeeeep gutter and showed some life LY and has alot of guys back so at 50-1 we can have fun for a maction packed year for them .. The good news is they are in the easier division and have a reasonable schedule avoiding toledo and getting Ohio, Buffalo and NILL at home .. still gotta win a few tough roadies ..
I only have 2 outs for MAC futures and 50-1 funny feeling we'll get juicier than that so I dropped half a bet now and will def search around for something better .. books much shy'er about giving us the monster futures odds w MAC so wacky but I could def see a 100-1 avail itself at some point .. good luck .. go zips lol!!!!
Time of year we crack open Phil digital mag .. think the actual mag is out in early July so digital gives the more technologically inclined a a chance to peer over the preview for almost a month gathering ideas and executing before a hoard of CFB prospectors read about a team's potential to be a gold strike and start piling in .. we hauled in a few gems last year by hitting the mine early.. Phil wasn't as high on So Bama but looking at his notes LY it was an easy call going in on them at like 5 wins or so and didn't mind holding those 50-1 SUN tickets even if they didn't pan out .. same for Troy got them at 5.5 and hit them to win the Sun Belt at about 10-1 with Phil having alot to say about'em as a possible sneaky contender .. those win totals went wayyy up and the conf odds went wayyy down after the mag came out .. sometimes it pays to be first .. UTEP was one of the teams I trusted Phil's gut on last year and ended up being a spoiler, coulda tied with RSW 5 but got greedy taking odds at 5.5 w + odds .. can't win em all but felt like we shoulda won that one ..
Phil has UTEP in the same spot as LY #2 in the CUSA .. Liberty is squarely in the #2 spot at all the books for the conf odds but Phil has them sitting #4 in his predicted finish ... I'm wasn't personally as high on UTEP looking them over but wasn't a hater either and I'm at least pickin up what Phil's puttin down .. Hardinson isn't a bad QB and has 1 and maybe 2 legit RB's and a legit star WR returning plus he's calling them the best OL in CUSA .. considering Liberty has quite a few guys back on their OL and WKY's should be good again that's a decent compliment .. The D does lose a few producers but there's a bit back and seems like after he talked the roster over w Dimel the units sound promising w the DL being the strength .. my worry is they had all these guys last year and repeatedly couldn't win games they should losing to new mexico of all teams, Rice, Mid T, La-Tech and lotta close wins vs the weaker comp .. and when they had UTSA on the ropes up huge at halftime they couldn't close it out lost in the final couple seconds to miss out on a bowl game and that also secured one of our very few RSW losses .. after a bad taste like that I'm wasn't dying to back these turds again but gunna trust Phil taking another crack at em.. Really the thing to like here is the schedule, I'd say 6 very winnable conf games plus non cons with UNLV and FCS Incarnate Word both at home so either decent favs to maybe small dogs in 8 games... rest of the schedule is @Arizona, @Nwestern, Liberty and W.KY both at home .. don't think im going out on tooooo big a limb saying they have at least a fighting chance in up to 10 or 11 games .. LY Miners were significantly out-yarded vs OU, Mid T and Rice .. had a few others that were close yardage deficits but won the battle in most of their games .. the W/L record coulda been alot better IMO and again literally down to the last second from going to B2B bowl games LY .. UTEP have leaders back and clearly making a bowl is one of their goals .. totally aligns w our wager and a schedule that makes it VERY accomplishable.. holding nose .. GO MINERS!!!
1
SEASON WINS
UTEP OVER 5.5 -110 (FAN)
Time of year we crack open Phil digital mag .. think the actual mag is out in early July so digital gives the more technologically inclined a a chance to peer over the preview for almost a month gathering ideas and executing before a hoard of CFB prospectors read about a team's potential to be a gold strike and start piling in .. we hauled in a few gems last year by hitting the mine early.. Phil wasn't as high on So Bama but looking at his notes LY it was an easy call going in on them at like 5 wins or so and didn't mind holding those 50-1 SUN tickets even if they didn't pan out .. same for Troy got them at 5.5 and hit them to win the Sun Belt at about 10-1 with Phil having alot to say about'em as a possible sneaky contender .. those win totals went wayyy up and the conf odds went wayyy down after the mag came out .. sometimes it pays to be first .. UTEP was one of the teams I trusted Phil's gut on last year and ended up being a spoiler, coulda tied with RSW 5 but got greedy taking odds at 5.5 w + odds .. can't win em all but felt like we shoulda won that one ..
Phil has UTEP in the same spot as LY #2 in the CUSA .. Liberty is squarely in the #2 spot at all the books for the conf odds but Phil has them sitting #4 in his predicted finish ... I'm wasn't personally as high on UTEP looking them over but wasn't a hater either and I'm at least pickin up what Phil's puttin down .. Hardinson isn't a bad QB and has 1 and maybe 2 legit RB's and a legit star WR returning plus he's calling them the best OL in CUSA .. considering Liberty has quite a few guys back on their OL and WKY's should be good again that's a decent compliment .. The D does lose a few producers but there's a bit back and seems like after he talked the roster over w Dimel the units sound promising w the DL being the strength .. my worry is they had all these guys last year and repeatedly couldn't win games they should losing to new mexico of all teams, Rice, Mid T, La-Tech and lotta close wins vs the weaker comp .. and when they had UTSA on the ropes up huge at halftime they couldn't close it out lost in the final couple seconds to miss out on a bowl game and that also secured one of our very few RSW losses .. after a bad taste like that I'm wasn't dying to back these turds again but gunna trust Phil taking another crack at em.. Really the thing to like here is the schedule, I'd say 6 very winnable conf games plus non cons with UNLV and FCS Incarnate Word both at home so either decent favs to maybe small dogs in 8 games... rest of the schedule is @Arizona, @Nwestern, Liberty and W.KY both at home .. don't think im going out on tooooo big a limb saying they have at least a fighting chance in up to 10 or 11 games .. LY Miners were significantly out-yarded vs OU, Mid T and Rice .. had a few others that were close yardage deficits but won the battle in most of their games .. the W/L record coulda been alot better IMO and again literally down to the last second from going to B2B bowl games LY .. UTEP have leaders back and clearly making a bowl is one of their goals .. totally aligns w our wager and a schedule that makes it VERY accomplishable.. holding nose .. GO MINERS!!!
Can get this number at FAN too seeing other books hovering around 12-1 or so .. my guess is after Phil comes out and folks seeing he's gott'em #2 in the conference I think all the books settle the Miners closer to 10-1 and maybe even shuffle them down even more .. you think with only 6 teams in a reallllly wacky reshuffled CUSA the books could easily get blindsided by a surprise up n comer .. Everyone gets why the Hilltoppers are the clear odds on favs and its possible they just romp thru the conference and the champ game. They made that announcement to everyone LY in the bowl game vs So Bama. Jags only started playing football in 2009 and that was their 3rd ever FBS bowl game and were looking for their first ever win with easily their best team in program history.. so yeah they 100% showed up playing to win and got absolutely slaughtered .. if not for that I don't think WKY is nearly the MONSTER fav they are to win the conference .. WKY lost a few games LY to moderate competition and had some other very close calls .. I suspect WKY's pass game needs to be playing on that next level all year or they could find themselves dropping a few games.. The D was a huuuge part of their success LY and they lose quite a few of their big playmakers and other contributors on that side.. they were +11 in TO's LY and 2nd only to USC in SP+'s calc of turnover luck which takes other variables of turnovers into account .. idk what the backup QB situation is we all agree if Austin Reed gets injured then throw all assumptions out the window.. I'd have WKY as my top team too but ton of risks could make them much less of a sure thing than they seem and if the D is really not sound this year could be more than a few coin flip type shootouts ..
Books are more / less relying on SP+'s ratings to set their odds with WKY and Liberty easily the top 2 teams .. Interesting Phil putting Liberty tied at #4 in the conf w LA Tech .. recall Phil's prediction grade as 'most accurate preview in last 30 years' is based on the conf order vs actual compared w other mags and it would be VERY easy to just put Liberty #3 if he was down on them which is maybe a notch down from where alllll the other previews will have them so tied for 4th is in my view Phil going out on a limb with his prediction.. I'm not as down on Liberty but Phil notes they lost some good ones on a D that otherwise got throttled w departures and the QB's were totally unreliable LY and I agree w all that, could be more of a dud year for chadwell than expected .. MidT at #3 I agree with I think middies could be a surprise this year if they find a decent QB but were not getting any kinda decent odds to play them .. Phil rounds out the conf projected order as expected w #6 NMSU, #7 FIU and the FCS newcomers #8Sam Hou, #9 J-Ville .. Looking at CUSA with 6 possible suitors for the champ game I think it only makes sense to grab the longer odds I wouldn't trust models to predict what happens in this or the other heavily reorganized conferences .. besides UTEP we're also rollin NMSU 30-1, Phil recognized NMSU has a chance to make the champ game if jerry kill has 'the magic' again and already seeing those odds dropping down to the 16 to 20 range, think those will eventually hover around 15-1 where it doesn't make sense to take a chance on them ..
Anyway yeah making a play based on Phil's outlook wouldn't have otherwise but were getting the longer odds (for now) and won't sting bad if UTEP craps themselves again .. good luck!
0
CONF FUTURES
UTEP CUSA 16-1 (MGM)
Can get this number at FAN too seeing other books hovering around 12-1 or so .. my guess is after Phil comes out and folks seeing he's gott'em #2 in the conference I think all the books settle the Miners closer to 10-1 and maybe even shuffle them down even more .. you think with only 6 teams in a reallllly wacky reshuffled CUSA the books could easily get blindsided by a surprise up n comer .. Everyone gets why the Hilltoppers are the clear odds on favs and its possible they just romp thru the conference and the champ game. They made that announcement to everyone LY in the bowl game vs So Bama. Jags only started playing football in 2009 and that was their 3rd ever FBS bowl game and were looking for their first ever win with easily their best team in program history.. so yeah they 100% showed up playing to win and got absolutely slaughtered .. if not for that I don't think WKY is nearly the MONSTER fav they are to win the conference .. WKY lost a few games LY to moderate competition and had some other very close calls .. I suspect WKY's pass game needs to be playing on that next level all year or they could find themselves dropping a few games.. The D was a huuuge part of their success LY and they lose quite a few of their big playmakers and other contributors on that side.. they were +11 in TO's LY and 2nd only to USC in SP+'s calc of turnover luck which takes other variables of turnovers into account .. idk what the backup QB situation is we all agree if Austin Reed gets injured then throw all assumptions out the window.. I'd have WKY as my top team too but ton of risks could make them much less of a sure thing than they seem and if the D is really not sound this year could be more than a few coin flip type shootouts ..
Books are more / less relying on SP+'s ratings to set their odds with WKY and Liberty easily the top 2 teams .. Interesting Phil putting Liberty tied at #4 in the conf w LA Tech .. recall Phil's prediction grade as 'most accurate preview in last 30 years' is based on the conf order vs actual compared w other mags and it would be VERY easy to just put Liberty #3 if he was down on them which is maybe a notch down from where alllll the other previews will have them so tied for 4th is in my view Phil going out on a limb with his prediction.. I'm not as down on Liberty but Phil notes they lost some good ones on a D that otherwise got throttled w departures and the QB's were totally unreliable LY and I agree w all that, could be more of a dud year for chadwell than expected .. MidT at #3 I agree with I think middies could be a surprise this year if they find a decent QB but were not getting any kinda decent odds to play them .. Phil rounds out the conf projected order as expected w #6 NMSU, #7 FIU and the FCS newcomers #8Sam Hou, #9 J-Ville .. Looking at CUSA with 6 possible suitors for the champ game I think it only makes sense to grab the longer odds I wouldn't trust models to predict what happens in this or the other heavily reorganized conferences .. besides UTEP we're also rollin NMSU 30-1, Phil recognized NMSU has a chance to make the champ game if jerry kill has 'the magic' again and already seeing those odds dropping down to the 16 to 20 range, think those will eventually hover around 15-1 where it doesn't make sense to take a chance on them ..
Anyway yeah making a play based on Phil's outlook wouldn't have otherwise but were getting the longer odds (for now) and won't sting bad if UTEP craps themselves again .. good luck!
Only 4 I could find out there and think very unlikely it'll be around at least not at this price but might see another book come out at 4 and wouldn't throw much shade on 4.5 I hit that smaller at Caesars +105 after maxing out a hit at BOL .. 4 is IMO a very strong position and I think it at the very least would be really hard to lose .. Rice does go to the AAC and its a tougher schedule getting Tulane, SMU, @UTSA and non con @Texas in the opener .. maybe an outside shot for a big upset in conference but would really need to catch one of those with their pants down .. freely admit we have 8 games to win 5.. start w a gimme vs FCS TX Southern and I think great chance to bag at least 3 more @USF, ECU, UCONN, @Tulsa, @Charlotte .. I did hit Uconn over 4.5 and this was not a must win think both teams really want this for a bowl shot .. tougher but possible to upset Houston at home week 2 it was verrrrry close LY and Houston has alot of questions entering this year count on Rice to show up for a huge inter-city home game .. also catch FAU at home in the finale and they're definitely underdogs but that is a nasssty spot for the owls who make the trip to Rice after a huge home game vs Tulane which I think could make or break a shot for the conf champ game and maybe a MASSIVE dead spot let down for FAU since they'll have likely locked up a bowl ..
Rice was a huge surprise early on LY covering alotta games very much improved on offense maybe best in years going 400+ yds in quite a few games LY and that was mostly the doings of TJ McMahon their QB .. nothing was easy, defense wasn't very good but just found ways to win games and keep others closer than expected .. McMahon got injured late in the year and the team really fell apart .. TJ-M hit the portal after JT-D came in and musta been the clear winner and think very unlikely TJ would willingly walk away from a team he revived from a looong term coma and was the main force behind them making a bowl LY think writing was on the wall and now he's likely a backup at Marshall although funny feeling I think he beats Francher over there and has a big year for them .. Rice has 2 very good WR's too in Rozner and McCaffrey and not a great OL but they have some beef on the roster think that alone makes the offense improve and maybe contend for a bowl .. we can use some real improvement from other units and there's alot back from LY, enough to like the prospects of better run game and play on D .. add on Rice got SLAUGHTERED in the turnover game LY -14 on the year and that includes +5 vs FCS Mcneese so -19 vs FBS foes, TO's cost them 2-3 games LY .. they won 5 LY w that weight hanging over them very good chance for a major regression boost .. also bring in a much better kicker missed FG's cost them a shot in 2 games LY .. The other thing to like is Rice made a bowl LY w 5 wins because they have the good grades and while clearly have a goal of making another bowl w 6 wins I wouldn't expect them to pack anything up if they enter the tough late stretch w 4 wins they more than any other team will play for that 5th win which perfectly aligns with the RSW goals .. Coaches also improved this team the last 2 years out of the deep gutter and nothing about the team says they are going back so lotta stuff to like about Rice surprising again this year .. fun fact AAC now has all 3 Owls .. HOO HOO!!!!
0
SEASON WINS
RICE OVER 4 -130 (BOL)
Only 4 I could find out there and think very unlikely it'll be around at least not at this price but might see another book come out at 4 and wouldn't throw much shade on 4.5 I hit that smaller at Caesars +105 after maxing out a hit at BOL .. 4 is IMO a very strong position and I think it at the very least would be really hard to lose .. Rice does go to the AAC and its a tougher schedule getting Tulane, SMU, @UTSA and non con @Texas in the opener .. maybe an outside shot for a big upset in conference but would really need to catch one of those with their pants down .. freely admit we have 8 games to win 5.. start w a gimme vs FCS TX Southern and I think great chance to bag at least 3 more @USF, ECU, UCONN, @Tulsa, @Charlotte .. I did hit Uconn over 4.5 and this was not a must win think both teams really want this for a bowl shot .. tougher but possible to upset Houston at home week 2 it was verrrrry close LY and Houston has alot of questions entering this year count on Rice to show up for a huge inter-city home game .. also catch FAU at home in the finale and they're definitely underdogs but that is a nasssty spot for the owls who make the trip to Rice after a huge home game vs Tulane which I think could make or break a shot for the conf champ game and maybe a MASSIVE dead spot let down for FAU since they'll have likely locked up a bowl ..
Rice was a huge surprise early on LY covering alotta games very much improved on offense maybe best in years going 400+ yds in quite a few games LY and that was mostly the doings of TJ McMahon their QB .. nothing was easy, defense wasn't very good but just found ways to win games and keep others closer than expected .. McMahon got injured late in the year and the team really fell apart .. TJ-M hit the portal after JT-D came in and musta been the clear winner and think very unlikely TJ would willingly walk away from a team he revived from a looong term coma and was the main force behind them making a bowl LY think writing was on the wall and now he's likely a backup at Marshall although funny feeling I think he beats Francher over there and has a big year for them .. Rice has 2 very good WR's too in Rozner and McCaffrey and not a great OL but they have some beef on the roster think that alone makes the offense improve and maybe contend for a bowl .. we can use some real improvement from other units and there's alot back from LY, enough to like the prospects of better run game and play on D .. add on Rice got SLAUGHTERED in the turnover game LY -14 on the year and that includes +5 vs FCS Mcneese so -19 vs FBS foes, TO's cost them 2-3 games LY .. they won 5 LY w that weight hanging over them very good chance for a major regression boost .. also bring in a much better kicker missed FG's cost them a shot in 2 games LY .. The other thing to like is Rice made a bowl LY w 5 wins because they have the good grades and while clearly have a goal of making another bowl w 6 wins I wouldn't expect them to pack anything up if they enter the tough late stretch w 4 wins they more than any other team will play for that 5th win which perfectly aligns with the RSW goals .. Coaches also improved this team the last 2 years out of the deep gutter and nothing about the team says they are going back so lotta stuff to like about Rice surprising again this year .. fun fact AAC now has all 3 Owls .. HOO HOO!!!!
Very tough to eval the SC's in the off season almost always need to hear what Phil and others have to say .. I wouldn't call it overly optimistic or a surprise pick but for the big odds I found a way to play this one .. the big stuff is Coach Ken being let go, Navy had the absolutely killer year in '19 and been nothing short of a disaster and the nuggets I picked up were some in the academy athletic dept were none too pleased how the offense was going .. we saw the Middies try to broaden the O passing more but to no avail didn't do much .. DC Newberry was promoted to HC and keeping him around is huge the D was outstanding in '19 and regained its footing quickly during 'the troubles' and think they're in a great spot after outperforming LY very good run stop unit tied down a bunch of teams and very tricky pass D to prepare for w pressure coming from all over, lose their all everything best guy but they have ALOT coming back including a great group up front ...
New OC was OC/OL at Kennisaw for many years thru their FCS rise same place Newberry came from and the O shouldn't stray far from the option roots and Navy retianed their long time QB coach whose trained many good ones for them .. Sounds like the SC's are struggling with the new cut blocking rules running the trad triple O w WR's way less effective in the blocking scheme .. so immediate need to open up the offense, think this times up well with Navy having tried to do that the last couple seasons and bringing in the new coaches .. they keep their 2 more run oriented QB's but have 2 sophs in spring battling and coaches sounded high on Gleaton as kinda that utility gamer type QB and phil notes he's the leading candidate to be the starter.. our 40-1 shot rests heavily on Navy being able to turn the key on the new coach new QB new scheme and deliver a surprises on offense .. got a great group of RB's returning, 4/5 on the OL and top WR LY plus Arline and punt ret guy Hassan are shifty dudes and could be fun if they can get repurposed into the offense ..
0
CONF FUTURES
NAVY AAC 40-1
Very tough to eval the SC's in the off season almost always need to hear what Phil and others have to say .. I wouldn't call it overly optimistic or a surprise pick but for the big odds I found a way to play this one .. the big stuff is Coach Ken being let go, Navy had the absolutely killer year in '19 and been nothing short of a disaster and the nuggets I picked up were some in the academy athletic dept were none too pleased how the offense was going .. we saw the Middies try to broaden the O passing more but to no avail didn't do much .. DC Newberry was promoted to HC and keeping him around is huge the D was outstanding in '19 and regained its footing quickly during 'the troubles' and think they're in a great spot after outperforming LY very good run stop unit tied down a bunch of teams and very tricky pass D to prepare for w pressure coming from all over, lose their all everything best guy but they have ALOT coming back including a great group up front ...
New OC was OC/OL at Kennisaw for many years thru their FCS rise same place Newberry came from and the O shouldn't stray far from the option roots and Navy retianed their long time QB coach whose trained many good ones for them .. Sounds like the SC's are struggling with the new cut blocking rules running the trad triple O w WR's way less effective in the blocking scheme .. so immediate need to open up the offense, think this times up well with Navy having tried to do that the last couple seasons and bringing in the new coaches .. they keep their 2 more run oriented QB's but have 2 sophs in spring battling and coaches sounded high on Gleaton as kinda that utility gamer type QB and phil notes he's the leading candidate to be the starter.. our 40-1 shot rests heavily on Navy being able to turn the key on the new coach new QB new scheme and deliver a surprises on offense .. got a great group of RB's returning, 4/5 on the OL and top WR LY plus Arline and punt ret guy Hassan are shifty dudes and could be fun if they can get repurposed into the offense ..
Coaching and offensive shakeups aside Middies already did seem on the cusp of a possible break out year, nobody thought much of them LY or after getting throttled by Memphis early but then they shock the conf w a win @ECU .. throttle Tulsa, nearly a final drive stunner @SMU, gave the bearcats all they could handle held em to 55 yds @Cincy .. beat UCF 17-14 in the bounce house held them to 85 yds rushing .. maybe a horrible spot for the Knights coming right after a big Tulane win and Plum tweaked his hammy at halftime but man o man coulda clinched the AAC champ game and had HFA so they didn't lose that one on purpose .. also played Air Force and Army to the wire .. 32-35 loss to ND.. it wasn't as close as that Middies w some garbage time scores but ND never closed them out and Navy maybe an early missed FG away from another big upset .. a few big hits and a bunch of near misses LY ..
Navy doesn't have nearly that rough of a schedule this ssn, the tough stuff is gotta go @Memphis in the conf opener and @SMU over in the conf finale over TG weekend .. That spot for the ponies is already real ugly off their MASSIVE game @Memphis and that is basically SMU's only tough conf opponent this year .. I think its unlikely SMU is out of the CCG all together even w a loss @Memp but if so that would only be a more killer dud spot for them.. but SMU's conf schedule is soooo weak its possible they've locked up the CCG w HFA heading into that game the real insane set up is Lashlee taking the game, resting his starters and scouting the middies knowing they'll meet again in the champ game .. the alternative is get their knees chopped out trying to win, don't get the extra rest and all that to likely get a tough opponent they haven't yet played yet like Tulane or UTSA in the CCG.. well much to the chagrin of those coaches I think Lash and the boys would make it a pretty chill thanksgiving weekend if ya catch my drift lol .. epic CFB fantasies aside Navy really has just those 2 tough games and they've proven a tough customer on the road all of last year and many other years .. other conf opponents are USF, UNT, @CHAR, @TEMP, UAB, ECU ... I mean its not a cake walk but let's say that they can lose to memphis in the conf opener and I'd try to bag some biiiig monster conf odds at that point if I thought they even just looked mediocre because there is nothing tough after until that thxgiving date w SMU.. If Middies find a way to beat Memphis I think the AI Vegas Bet Brain 9000 looks at the situation .. recasts our dudes as more like a 5-1 shot .. good luck!!
0
^^^^
NAVY CONT'D ..
Coaching and offensive shakeups aside Middies already did seem on the cusp of a possible break out year, nobody thought much of them LY or after getting throttled by Memphis early but then they shock the conf w a win @ECU .. throttle Tulsa, nearly a final drive stunner @SMU, gave the bearcats all they could handle held em to 55 yds @Cincy .. beat UCF 17-14 in the bounce house held them to 85 yds rushing .. maybe a horrible spot for the Knights coming right after a big Tulane win and Plum tweaked his hammy at halftime but man o man coulda clinched the AAC champ game and had HFA so they didn't lose that one on purpose .. also played Air Force and Army to the wire .. 32-35 loss to ND.. it wasn't as close as that Middies w some garbage time scores but ND never closed them out and Navy maybe an early missed FG away from another big upset .. a few big hits and a bunch of near misses LY ..
Navy doesn't have nearly that rough of a schedule this ssn, the tough stuff is gotta go @Memphis in the conf opener and @SMU over in the conf finale over TG weekend .. That spot for the ponies is already real ugly off their MASSIVE game @Memphis and that is basically SMU's only tough conf opponent this year .. I think its unlikely SMU is out of the CCG all together even w a loss @Memp but if so that would only be a more killer dud spot for them.. but SMU's conf schedule is soooo weak its possible they've locked up the CCG w HFA heading into that game the real insane set up is Lashlee taking the game, resting his starters and scouting the middies knowing they'll meet again in the champ game .. the alternative is get their knees chopped out trying to win, don't get the extra rest and all that to likely get a tough opponent they haven't yet played yet like Tulane or UTSA in the CCG.. well much to the chagrin of those coaches I think Lash and the boys would make it a pretty chill thanksgiving weekend if ya catch my drift lol .. epic CFB fantasies aside Navy really has just those 2 tough games and they've proven a tough customer on the road all of last year and many other years .. other conf opponents are USF, UNT, @CHAR, @TEMP, UAB, ECU ... I mean its not a cake walk but let's say that they can lose to memphis in the conf opener and I'd try to bag some biiiig monster conf odds at that point if I thought they even just looked mediocre because there is nothing tough after until that thxgiving date w SMU.. If Middies find a way to beat Memphis I think the AI Vegas Bet Brain 9000 looks at the situation .. recasts our dudes as more like a 5-1 shot .. good luck!!
Have no prob bagging Navy over 5.5 wins obvi but the prob is they're laying just INSANE juice seeing like -170 and see a 6 out there wouldn't hate that but for -135 i'll wait and see if we can get normal odds .. the prob is its entirely possible the offense doesn't click right away don't have the personnel and just not effective passing and a few AAC teams or the other Academies are tougher than expected and they're in a dog fight for a bowl game sitting 5 wins heading into Army .. that would be an expensive hedge out .. no prob laying the juice if we have more of a sure thing beat on the team .. at 40-1 I can take 'shock the world' shot on them ..
But alot to like w the schedule getting basically 3 well placed bye weeks week 4, week 9 right after Air Force and as always a bye before Army (unless they make the champ game!!!!) .. play in Ireland week 1 and saw Nebraska almost tank to FCS North Dakota last year after their trip, but feel good w wagner on deck one of the worst FCS teams every year should be well rested, tuned up and dialed in before their big trip to Memphis .. Navy also really dodges alot of AAC bullets this year no UTSA, Tulane, FAU .. maybe a surprise on their conf schedule from UNT but their D was not great LY and changing to a 3-man front seems like real trouble stopping Navy's rush attack .. maybe ECU at home with alot of uncertainty in their offense is a tough game but rough spot for the Pirates they'll be off a rough run SMU, CHAR, @UTSA, Tulane, @FAU before their trip to Annapolis no extra prep time in there and could be out of bowl contention completely by then .. game @Temple could be tough both teams will be off a bye and Navy could be a bit sitting around for 2 weeks feelin pretty salty if they just lost to AFA again and lookin for a big bounce back .. don't think we need much to go right for Middies to bag 6 wins .. very much on the radar will post if playing ..
0
^^^
Navy notes cont'd ...
Have no prob bagging Navy over 5.5 wins obvi but the prob is they're laying just INSANE juice seeing like -170 and see a 6 out there wouldn't hate that but for -135 i'll wait and see if we can get normal odds .. the prob is its entirely possible the offense doesn't click right away don't have the personnel and just not effective passing and a few AAC teams or the other Academies are tougher than expected and they're in a dog fight for a bowl game sitting 5 wins heading into Army .. that would be an expensive hedge out .. no prob laying the juice if we have more of a sure thing beat on the team .. at 40-1 I can take 'shock the world' shot on them ..
But alot to like w the schedule getting basically 3 well placed bye weeks week 4, week 9 right after Air Force and as always a bye before Army (unless they make the champ game!!!!) .. play in Ireland week 1 and saw Nebraska almost tank to FCS North Dakota last year after their trip, but feel good w wagner on deck one of the worst FCS teams every year should be well rested, tuned up and dialed in before their big trip to Memphis .. Navy also really dodges alot of AAC bullets this year no UTSA, Tulane, FAU .. maybe a surprise on their conf schedule from UNT but their D was not great LY and changing to a 3-man front seems like real trouble stopping Navy's rush attack .. maybe ECU at home with alot of uncertainty in their offense is a tough game but rough spot for the Pirates they'll be off a rough run SMU, CHAR, @UTSA, Tulane, @FAU before their trip to Annapolis no extra prep time in there and could be out of bowl contention completely by then .. game @Temple could be tough both teams will be off a bye and Navy could be a bit sitting around for 2 weeks feelin pretty salty if they just lost to AFA again and lookin for a big bounce back .. don't think we need much to go right for Middies to bag 6 wins .. very much on the radar will post if playing ..
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