BUY.....Marc Lawrence's PLAYBOOK

bought it today at B&N...New Mexico in week 2 against NMSU is now on the leans list...thank you Mr. Lawrence...

Here's a little ATS info I got off of Twitter....In the last 10 years, teams who have won 10+ games ATS the year before, have averaged just 5.5 ATS wins the next season. The 3 teams who qualify this season are Penn St, Temple and Colorado...

I like Team Rankings.....and Odds Shark for technical stuff too
  * TR - got to 'team trends'
  *OS - 'more'   >>  'database'


last 3Y ATS.....Miami O #3 huh

W Michigan    28-12-0    70.0%
Temple           27-13-0    67.5%
Miami (OH)    23-13-1    63.9%
LA Tech          26-15-0    63.4%
Colorado St    24-14-1    63.2%
S Florida         23-14-1    62.2%
Stanford         24-16-0    60.0%
Duke              22-15-1    59.5%
Arkansas        23-16-0    59.0%
NC State         23-16-0    59.0%
Navy                23-16-1    59.0%
Idaho               20-14-2    58.8%
Nebraska          21-15-3    58.3%
Texas Tech        21-15-1    58.3%
Toledo               21-15-2    58.3%
Ohio                 22-16-1    57.9%
Air Force          23-17-0    57.5%


worst L3Y ATS

Connecticut    9-27-1    25.0%
S Alabama    11-26-1    29.7%
Arizona         13-26-0    33.3%
Charlotte         7-14-2    33.3%
E Carolina      13-24-0    35.1%
Texas A&M    14-25-0    35.9%
Utah State      15-24-0    38.5%
Kansas          14-22-0    38.9%
Hawaii           15-23-1    39.5%
UCLA             15-23-0    39.5%
Fla Atlantic       14-21-1    40.0%
Kent State       14-21-0    40.0%
Illinois             15-22-0    40.5%
Akron              15-22-0    40.5%
Oregon St       15-21-0    41.7%
North Texas      15-21-1    41.7%
Pittsburgh         16-22-1    42.1%
Buffalo             15-20-0    42.9%

worst L3Y as home fav
  * note Wyo.....Hawaii......Boise

Connecticut    0-5-1    0.0%
Fla Atlantic     0-6-1    0.0%
S Alabama      1-9-0    10.0%
Ball State      1-9-0    10.0%
Wyoming       1-5-0    16.7%
Pittsburgh      3-12-0    20.0%
Hawaii            2-7-0    22.2%
Kent State      2-5-0    28.6%
Virginia           2-5-1    28.6%
Texas A&M     5-12-0    29.4%
Arizona           4-9-0    30.8%
E Carolina      4-9-0    30.8%
Bowling Grn    4-9-0    30.8%
Houston         6-13-0    31.6%
Boise State    6-13-0    31.6%
Oregon St       3-6-0    33.3%
Vanderbilt       3-6-0    33.3%
E Michigan     1-2-0    33.3%
App State       5-10-1    33.3%
Iowa                6-12-0    33.3%
S Carolina       5-9-0    35.7%
Minnesota       5-9-0    35.7%
Cincinnati        4-7-1    36.4%
TX-San Ant      4-7-0    36.4%


top road dogs L5Y
  * like Penn St to murder Ga St week 2?.....watch out

Alabama        1-0-0    100.0%
Ohio State    3-0-0    100.0%
Houston        8-1-1    88.9%
Oregon          5-1-1    83.3%
Louisville       4-1-0    80.0%
Wisconsin     4-1-1    80.0%
Ga State      20-5-0    80.0%
N Illinois         7-2-1    77.8%
Fla Atlantic    20-6-0    76.9%
Oklahoma       3-1-0    75.0%
TX Christian    9-3-0    75.0%
Stanford          6-2-0    75.0%
Mich St           6-2-1    75.0%
BYU               11-4-0    73.3%
Baylor             5-2-0    71.4%
Purdue          14-6-2    70.0%
Wash State    16-7-0    69.6%
Tulsa             12-6-0    66.7%
NW              12-6-0    66.7%
Florida St      2-1-0    66.7%
VA Tech         6-3-0    66.7%
Temple         14-7-0    66.7%
Ball State     14-7-0    66.7%
UNLV           16-8-1    66.7%
Toledo          10-5-0    66.7%
Mississippi    6-3-0    66.7%
Akron           13-7-0    65.0%
Troy             13-7-0    65.0%
Utah             11-6-0    64.7%
Pittsburgh      9-5-2    64.3%
S Florida       10-6-0    62.5%
Memphis         8-5-1    61.5%
Miss State      8-5-0    61.5%
Navy               8-5-0    61.5%
Vanderbilt      14-9-0    60.9%


worst L3Y after a SU win
  *bad teams celebrate a bit too much?

Purdue            1-7-0    12.5%
S Alabama    3-13-1    18.8%
Maryland         3-12-0    20.0%
North Texas    2-7-1    22.2%
Texas State    3-8-0    27.3%
Connecticut    3-8-0    27.3%
Kent State       2-5-0    28.6%
New Mexico    6-12-0    33.3%
Minnesota        6-12-3    33.3%
UCLA               7-14-0    33.3%
Georgia           9-16-0    36.0%
San Jose St    4-7-0    36.4%
E Carolina       6-10-0    37.5%
TX El Paso       5-8-1    38.5%
Missouri          7-11-0    38.9%
Arizona           7-11-0    38.9%

L5Y  non-conf games

Duke          17-6-1    73.9%
Rice           15-6-2    71.4%
Ohio            17-7-0    70.8%
W M           16-7-0    69.6%
Col St         15-7-2    68.2%
Marshall      15-7-1    68.2%
GA South    10-5-0    66.7%
Utah            12-6-0    66.7%
Mississippi  15-8-1    65.2%
Nebraska    15-8-1    65.2%
Hawaii          14-8-0    63.6%
Toledo         14-8-1    63.6%
TX-San Ant 14-8-0    63.6%
LA Tech    15-9-1    62.5%
Houston    15-9-0    62.5%
Missouri    13-8-0    61.9%
TexState    14-9-0    60.9%
E Caro      14-9-0    60.9%
SJSU         14-9-0    60.9%
NC State    14-9-1    60.9%


L5Y  O/U in non-conf games
  * OVER teams  


N Mex State      23-5-0    82.1%
California           12-3-0    80.0%
Troy                   17-5-0    77.3%
Kentucky           15-5-0    75.0%
GA Southern      10-4-0    71.4%
Nebraska           16-7-0    69.6%
Idaho                   20-9-0    69.0%
Baylor                 13-6-0    68.4%
E Michigan         13-6-0    68.4%
UNLV                15-7-0    68.2%
VA Tech             15-7-1    68.2%
LA Tech             17-8-0    68.0%
GA Tech             14-7-1    66.7%
E Carolina          14-8-0    63.6%
Fresno St           12-7-1    63.2%
Texas Tech        10-6-0    62.5%
Pittsburgh           15-9-0    62.5%
W Kentucky       15-9-0    62.5%
North Texas       13-8-0    61.9%
LSU                   13-8-1      61.9%
S Florida            13-8-1    61.9%
Arizona              11-7-0    61.1%
Arizona St          11-7-0    61.1%
Indiana                  11-7-1    61.1%
Virginia                  11-7-1    61.1%
TX Christian         11-7-0    61.1%
N Illinois               14-9-0    60.9%
Kent State            12-8-0    60.0%
Vanderbilt              12-8-2    60.0%

L5Y O/U in conf games
  * UNDER teams

Army              0-4-0    0.0%
Akron             11-29-0    27.5%
Bowling Grn    13-30-0    30.2%
Ohio               13-27-1    32.5%
BYU                 1-2-0    33.3%
GA Southern     8-16-0    33.3%
USC               15-30-1    33.3%
Texas             15-30-0    33.3%
Vanderbilt       14-26-0    35.0%
Wake Forest    14-26-0    35.0%
Mississippi      14-25-1    35.9%
Toledo            14-25-1    35.9%
S Florida        14-25-0    35.9%
VA Tech         15-26-0    36.6%
North Texas    15-25-0    37.5%
Connecticut    15-24-0    38.5%
TX El Paso    15-24-1    38.5%
LSU               15-24-1    38.5%
Tulane           15-24-1    38.5%
Kentucky       15-24-1    38.5%
N Illinois         17-27-0    38.6%
Nevada          16-25-0    39.0%
Miami (OH)    16-24-0    40.0%
W Virginia      18-27-0    40.0%
Rutgers         16-24-0    40.0%
NC State       16-24-0    40.0%
Missouri        17-25-0    40.5%
California      18-26-1    40.9%
Kent State    16-23-1    41.0%
Cincinnati      16-23-0    41.0%

L5Y O/U away
  *play D on the road?......OU wtf

Oklahoma        18-5-1    78.3%
N Mex State     23-7-1    76.7%
Old Dominion    15-6-1    71.4%
Boise State      20-9-0    69.0%
Arkansas         13-7-1    65.0%
LA Tech            22-12-0    64.7%
Texas Tech      16-9-0    64.0%
GA Tech         16-9-0    64.0%
Idaho              20-12-1    62.5%
E Michigan      20-12-0    62.5%
Colorado St     16-10-0    61.5%
Rice                19-12-0    61.3%
Ohio State       14-9-0    60.9%
S Methodist     17-11-0    60.7%
Marshall         18-12-0    60.0%
Tennessee       13-9-0    59.1%
San Jose St    17-12-2    58.6%
Central FL       17-12-1    58.6%
Air Force        17-12-0    58.6%
Clemson         14-10-0    58.3%
Illinois            14-10-0    58.3%
Charlotte         7-5-0    58.3%
S Mississippi   18-13-1    58.1%
Colorado        15-11-0    57.7%
U Mass          17-13-1    56.7%
Central Mich    17-13-0    56.7%
Tulsa              17-13-0    56.7%
UNLV             17-13-0    56.7%
North Texas    18-14-0    56.2%
Indiana           14-11-1    56.0%
Washington    14-11-1    56.0%



Oddshark stuff......head to head / before and after a bye / vs any conf

eg.

Kan St AFTER a bye

Nov 19, 2016    KAN.ST    42    BAYLOR    21    W    -2.5    W
Sep 17, 2016    FLAATL    7    KAN.ST    63    W    -25.5    W
Nov 5, 2015       BAYLOR    31    KAN.ST    24    L    +17.0    W
Oct 3, 2015       KAN.ST    34    OKLAST    36    L    -6.5    W
Nov 20, 2014     KAN.ST    26    WESTV    20    W    -2.5    W
Oct 18, 2014    KAN.ST    31    OKLA    30    W    -7.0    W
Sep 18, 2014    AUBRN    20    KAN.ST    14    L    +7.5    W
Oct 26, 2013    WESTV    12    KAN.ST    35    W    -13.0    W
Oct 5, 2013      KAN.ST    29    OKLAST    33    L    -13.0    W
Dec 1, 2012      TEXAS    24    KAN.ST    42    W    -10.5    W
Oct 6, 2012      KANSAS    16    KAN.ST    56    W    -24.5    W


Kan St BEFORE a bye

Nov 5, 2016       OKLAST    43    KAN.ST    37    L    -2.0    L
Sep 2, 2016       KAN.ST    13    STANFO    26    L    -12.5    L
Oct 24, 2015      KAN.ST    9    TEXAS    23    L    -7.0    L
Sep 19, 2015    LATECH    33    KAN.ST    39    W    -10.0    L
Nov 8, 2014       KAN.ST    20    TCU    41    L    -6.5    L
Oct 4, 2014      TXTECH    13    KAN.ST    45    W    -13.5    W
Sep 6, 2014      KAN.ST    32    IOWAST    28    W    +12.5    L
Oct 12, 2013    BAYLOR    35    KAN.ST    25    L    +17.0    W
Sep 21, 2013    KAN.ST    21    TEXAS    31    L    -6.0    L
Nov 17, 2012    KAN.ST    24    BAYLOR    52    L    +12.0    L
Sep 22, 2012    KAN.ST    24    OKLA    19    W    -15.5    W

so you say you kinda like Baylor (off bye) at Okie St (Texas next) ?

 
Okie St.....at home....vs Baylor ?

Nov 21, 2015   BAYLOR    45    OKLAST    35    L    +3.0    L
Nov 23, 2013    BAYLOR    17    OKLAST    49    W    +7.5    W
Oct 29, 2011    BAYLOR    24    OKLAST    59    W    -14.5    W
Nov 6, 2010      BAYLOR    28    OKLAST    55    W    -9.5    W
Oct 18, 2008    BAYLOR    6    OKLAST    34    W    -17.0    W
Nov 11, 2006    BAYLOR    24    OKLAST    66    W    -16.5    W
Nov 13, 2004    BAYLOR    21    OKLAST    49    W    -25.5    W
Nov 23, 2002    BAYLOR    28    OKLAST    63    W    -28.5    W
Nov 18, 2000    BAYLOR    22    OKLAST    50    W    -16.5    W
Nov 22, 1998    BAYLOR    10    OKLAST    24    W    -17.0    L


I seldom (if ever).....will blindly....... 'play on' a trend
  * but usually  to either SUGGEST......or maybe  BACK OFF a play..........

Good stuff BA.... When it comes to making a profit in football, this is really the only thing that counts or me. You can guess at how many games a team will win during the season, but it has nothing to do with how much you make on that team. When LSU won the National Championship in 2007 they covered just 4 games ATS. So in spite of how good they were, they WEREN'T the team to follow if you wanted to make money...Unless you have a "special" team like Bama, who can totally dominate teams whenever Saban sees fit, a public team who is preseason number one, isn't as a rule, a good team to follow. They don't drop many bread crumbs...

At what point do trends become Apophenia? Nothing more than random data perceived as a pattern. Reminds me of the lighted sign next to a roulette wheel showing last 20 games or so. Black has hit nine times in a row so red is due! Or, black is on a run, stay with it! Fact is each event has no connection to previous outcomes!


A very COMMON......and stupid point.....
  *made each year by COVER'S 'master handicappers'

"hey man each year is different!"......start from scratch EVERY year!.....one year ain't got nuthin' to do with the next man !..

HINT:  it helps a great deal to know WTF you're talking about.............that way you know which trends to shade / which to fade



eg.    Texas / OU ......BOTH have new coaches.............Horns for whatever reason.....RECENTLY have OU's number
  * I know current and past coaches / players .......NOBODY knows why...........LIKE OU this year?.....you would be an idiot.....to disregard past trends when handicapping the current match-up........

$$  Did I say 'PLAY ON'..... TEXAS?.....................NO

DID I SAY......FADE OU?...............NO


BUT......I must say....I sure do appreciate you guys that insist on starting over EVERY single year................
 

YEP.....those are 3 I'm looking to go against early for sure

When......POOF !......a team gets really good overnight seemingly......odds-makers .... and the betting public....often expect things to just keep rolling......PSU got on an incredible roll LY.......AND it looks like to me.....as I've mentioned.....that B10 is/was..... overrated too

Colorado LY made NO SENSE at all.....I had them pegged for 5-6 wins tops....that -8 vs Col St looks like too many........hopefully

Temple has covered what 68% the L3 years......may be a great team to fade as well......meanwhile if you believe that.....of course  (maybe) consider BAYLOR.....a team to 'play on'............  

I used to completely ignore technical trends and analysis.....to my detriment.

Not sure if one can identify a psychological edge from these ATS situations, but we can certainly quantify the tendencies of the oddsmakers....and beating them out of money is what it is all about.

Would love to see some historical data sets involving line moves, timing of the line moves, and the impact upon the final ATS standing.....to my knowledge, not much compiled data in that area is in the public domain.

Also, the pricing on the in-game markets is fascinating...to actually view how game situations influence the in-game lines turns pretty sophisticated in a hurry. A simple pricing chart w/boxscore overlay would be a useful tool in hammering discrepancies in the live betting markets, but I have yet to find any.

A very COMMON......and stupid point.............

 
 I'll take a mulligan on that one...........
  * how 'bout......"many here think this as well.....but IMO they're not using these trends correctly"......hehe 

  note:  turns out......mixing jalapeno infused tequila.....with watermelon juice and lime...is a great summer drink..........................................


BUT.....as I've said over and over.......screw the (actual) trend.......rather AX yourself......what does this suggest in the way a coach prepares his team?......> how his team can be expected to perform in a given SPOT
  *  gives you a HINT.....as to when to look to PLAY .....or FADE a given team.........>>  it's a HUGE advantage

(Home) team A covers 75% of their non-conf games / (road) team B maybe 40%.......this SUGGESTS what?
  *HC for A.....feels these games are important.....HC for B?......might not care.....he gears up his team for CONFERENCE play.....as MANY do

eg.    I mentioned Iowa HC Ferentz as one (that appears to be).... an example of this ....vs Wyoming
  *  this merely suggests a play on Wyoming...you then weigh (all) the other factors
  **  #1 of course Bohl's approach here as well / his team's level of play on the road....tightened to non-conf road if you can.....then who each has on deck (esp the favored Iowa)...all the way down to the impact that Nevada RB Butler (now with Iowa) MIGHT have here


MAYBE......team A also plays (better) in front of the home crowd too......how about if team B just so happens.....to play poorly on the road?

  *SO......this info is MEANINGLESS?........because it takes extra time to try and understand?...............
  $$$     OBVIOUS ain't it?......to not utilize this info would be a serious disadvantage

BOTTOM LINE?......with any angle
  *is to find something not (already) in the point-spread.....MANY either ignore // don't understand the significance of historical trends...... 

How much $ u make last year in fb ?  

Why would spend $8.99 on the magazine now? You just gave me every great tidbit from it.