an eggzample....on how to use these technical trends....$ don't just memorize the trend....AX yourself....what does it mean? *screw the TREND....after all......we're looking for the SPOTBest HC off a loss?.....pp 98-99 in Playbook ( I use Team Rankings too)....since 2011 * Shaw at Tree (11-4 ATS)......why not look for a loss > see who's next?....................How 'bout week 2 at USC... *BTW Tree has covered 9 of last 11 as a dog too....USC is 0-3 ATS vs Tree (p 217 Playbook)BEHOLD.......woulda you just look at who they (Tree) have next..... *San Diego St.......but wait you say....SDSU is pretty damm good wtf son ?????TRUE.....but NOT in THIS SPOT.........SDSU 11-20 ATS in non-conf......and 1-9 ATS as a (<14) NC dog * WHY ?.....Rocky Long plays for MTW titles / he picks his spots.....and they have a road game with Arizona St the week before$$$ $ TRUST ME......he does not want back to back huge efforts vs NON-CONF opponents.....they play Zona St tough or win?....Tree is gonna beat their azz......esp if they lose to USC.... * they beat USC?.... and /or SDSU gets killed by Zona St? > you walk away no worries AND.....speaking of MTW play....he has a conf game with AF the following week (guess what > he ain't covered the week before conf play begins yet (0-6 ATS)Tree......play well on the road?......you bet (22-11 ATS away / 17-9 as road favorite) NOTE: UNDER....is a strong trend here as well..... * Tree - 10-25 O/U away.....7-19 if favored....5-10 O/U off loss too * SDSU- 12-18 O/U in non-conf games (7-13 run)POINT ; see how much of an advantage you have by viewing the match-up this way.........in advance? *as opposed to sitting down the week of the game......trying to break down the MATCH-UP only?Of course.....you still look hard at the match-up......but what we've done is identify a nice (potential) psychological EDGE.... $$ that ALSO....probably won't be reflected in the OPENING number................ .
Great info...Always my favorite contributor.I will go get the playbook today.I haven't gotten in a few yrs.Ive always liked Lawrence since late 80's.
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Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
an eggzample....on how to use these technical trends....$ don't just memorize the trend....AX yourself....what does it mean? *screw the TREND....after all......we're looking for the SPOTBest HC off a loss?.....pp 98-99 in Playbook ( I use Team Rankings too)....since 2011 * Shaw at Tree (11-4 ATS)......why not look for a loss > see who's next?....................How 'bout week 2 at USC... *BTW Tree has covered 9 of last 11 as a dog too....USC is 0-3 ATS vs Tree (p 217 Playbook)BEHOLD.......woulda you just look at who they (Tree) have next..... *San Diego St.......but wait you say....SDSU is pretty damm good wtf son ?????TRUE.....but NOT in THIS SPOT.........SDSU 11-20 ATS in non-conf......and 1-9 ATS as a (<14) NC dog * WHY ?.....Rocky Long plays for MTW titles / he picks his spots.....and they have a road game with Arizona St the week before$$$ $ TRUST ME......he does not want back to back huge efforts vs NON-CONF opponents.....they play Zona St tough or win?....Tree is gonna beat their azz......esp if they lose to USC.... * they beat USC?.... and /or SDSU gets killed by Zona St? > you walk away no worries AND.....speaking of MTW play....he has a conf game with AF the following week (guess what > he ain't covered the week before conf play begins yet (0-6 ATS)Tree......play well on the road?......you bet (22-11 ATS away / 17-9 as road favorite) NOTE: UNDER....is a strong trend here as well..... * Tree - 10-25 O/U away.....7-19 if favored....5-10 O/U off loss too * SDSU- 12-18 O/U in non-conf games (7-13 run)POINT ; see how much of an advantage you have by viewing the match-up this way.........in advance? *as opposed to sitting down the week of the game......trying to break down the MATCH-UP only?Of course.....you still look hard at the match-up......but what we've done is identify a nice (potential) psychological EDGE.... $$ that ALSO....probably won't be reflected in the OPENING number................ .
Great info...Always my favorite contributor.I will go get the playbook today.I haven't gotten in a few yrs.Ive always liked Lawrence since late 80's.
BA, want to take the time and say thanks for all the posts with fantastic information.
Interesting Trend; (From what I can find. Maybe missed one?) The last two years when a power 5 team has it's first game end at least 20 points away from the line, whether win or lose, they cover the second game.
last years examples;
-Bama/USC, line Bama -13.5, they win by 46. 46-13.5= 32.5 differential to spread.
Both USC and Bama cover week 2.
-Colorado/Colorado St, Buffs -7. win by 37, a 30 pt diff.
Both teams cover week 2.
Others in 2016;
-Arkansas win by 1pt as 21pt fav, next week cover
-Ohio State wins by 67 as 27.5pt fav, next week covers.
-Miss St loses by 1 as 28pt fav., next week covers.
-Virginia loss by 17 as 13pt fav, cover week 2.
In 2015;
Arizona, Illinois, Mississippi, Stanford, Northwestern, and USC all cover week 2 after winning or losing by 20 or more pts against the spread differential.
Only find Penn State in 2015 not covering after losing to Temple by 17 as a 6 pt fav.
A 14-1 trend last two years.
don't think I've seen that one................
.Temple winning outright as a TD dog maybe makes up for that neurotic PSU team..............
BOL this year man.............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:
Posting this again, hope page 4 shows all text!!
BA, want to take the time and say thanks for all the posts with fantastic information.
Interesting Trend; (From what I can find. Maybe missed one?) The last two years when a power 5 team has it's first game end at least 20 points away from the line, whether win or lose, they cover the second game.
last years examples;
-Bama/USC, line Bama -13.5, they win by 46. 46-13.5= 32.5 differential to spread.
Both USC and Bama cover week 2.
-Colorado/Colorado St, Buffs -7. win by 37, a 30 pt diff.
Both teams cover week 2.
Others in 2016;
-Arkansas win by 1pt as 21pt fav, next week cover
-Ohio State wins by 67 as 27.5pt fav, next week covers.
-Miss St loses by 1 as 28pt fav., next week covers.
-Virginia loss by 17 as 13pt fav, cover week 2.
In 2015;
Arizona, Illinois, Mississippi, Stanford, Northwestern, and USC all cover week 2 after winning or losing by 20 or more pts against the spread differential.
Only find Penn State in 2015 not covering after losing to Temple by 17 as a 6 pt fav.
A 14-1 trend last two years.
don't think I've seen that one................
.Temple winning outright as a TD dog maybe makes up for that neurotic PSU team..............
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