Quote Originally Posted by bigvern1013:
I used to completely ignore technical trends and analysis.....to my detriment.
Not sure if one can identify a psychological edge from these ATS situations, but we can certainly quantify the tendencies of the oddsmakers....and beating them out of money is what it is all about. 
Would love to see some historical data sets involving line moves, timing of the line moves, and the impact upon the final ATS standing.....to my knowledge, not much compiled data in that area is in the public domain.
Also, the pricing on the in-game markets is fascinating...to actually view how game situations influence the in-game lines turns pretty sophisticated in a hurry. A simple pricing chart w/boxscore overlay would be a useful tool in hammering discrepancies in the live betting markets, but I have yet to find any.
sorry missed you BV..........
*in-game / props maybe.... is no doubt where the (easier) money is.....you're correct a guy that really attacks those angles analytically......could kill it no doubt......Bill C has the about the only breakdown by halves / quarters....that I've seen / and that's late... it seems maybe after week 6-7.....2-3 years ago I saw a ton of mistakes by oddsmakers in the bowl season in quarter / 1H -2H lines etc...........this past year......sadly not very many ha
* I use Team Rankings and CFBstats as well < good stuff .....eg rushing averages per quarter ++++.......really tells you if a team gets stronger.....or weaker as the game progresses
Haven't seen ANY actual wagering data regarding in-game stuff.....can't recall even ATS results for 1H / 2H.....usually I do those myself
Use of trends?.........
I'll RESET......as most don't (SEEM) to get what I'm talking about
MOST EVERYBODY HERE.......BELIEVES THAT EACH COACH PREPARES HIS TEAM THE SAME........FOR EVERY SINGLE STINKIN' GAME........THAT IS WRONG BY A MILE
*OBVIOUSLY.......odds-makers do as well....why?....because it's tough to understand.....and especially hard to QUANTIFY.......right?
SO.....I study trends to SUGGEST / IDENTIFY......how each coach is different......stuff I mentioned before......that most ignore
*read my analysis of Iowa / Wyoming in that gmanusc's thread.... for a decent example of what I mean
* YEP......much is instinct too.......I was breaking down/ grading game film.......AND breaking down the Gold Sheet / box-scores.....(different levels of course ha)......for my old man.... at gunpoint basically......in the early 70's .......so my perspective is a bit different
eg. last bowl season one of by biggest plays was on Minny vs Wazzu.......right off the bat it was a slam dunk for me.....and me ONLY pretty much ha.....seems like I talked Skipster into it......as he VERY reluctantly comes around to the BA Big Picture ways..
$ all about how LEACH prepares his team for bowls.....and how he calls a game (mad scientist).....esp in bowls.....his teams are always TOUGH as helll as dogs......< his personality.....but often struggle.....when SUPPOSED / PRESSURED to win....< his personality too
* note: much better lately.....but NOW the pressure is ON again.....big time
* I didn't recommend it big seems like..... because of the (very high level) of uncertainty on that Minny side....felt it a tad irresponsible of me to recommend that one as a solid investment....'coulda been a Covers big shot'......with that one too..............
Good one also of interest?........UNI at Iowa St
*ragged breakdown in my other thread seems like
$ missed the early number.....played it at 10 / went to 11' before I could post it.......I think ISU kicks the crap outta 'em
Best of luck this year BV.......................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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