FYI BYU has lost 8 straight against Utah but only one of those was by more than 8 points. Last year BYU was up by 17 late 3rd quarter but lost 27-35.
This year BYU returns 17 starters, 9 on offense and 8 on defense and the game is in Provo. Last year BYU couldn't get any consistent QB play. I believe they are much improved with Zach Wilson returning with experience and full first team reps in spring football.
I get Utah has better talent but that all goes out the window with the Holy War.
I'll take the points at home. However if line somehow drops to 3 (which I doubt) I would stay away.
BoL to all.
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FYI BYU has lost 8 straight against Utah but only one of those was by more than 8 points. Last year BYU was up by 17 late 3rd quarter but lost 27-35.
This year BYU returns 17 starters, 9 on offense and 8 on defense and the game is in Provo. Last year BYU couldn't get any consistent QB play. I believe they are much improved with Zach Wilson returning with experience and full first team reps in spring football.
I get Utah has better talent but that all goes out the window with the Holy War.
I'll take the points at home. However if line somehow drops to 3 (which I doubt) I would stay away.
FYI BYU has lost 8 straight against Utah but only one of those was by more than 8 points. Last year BYU was up by 17 late 3rd quarter but lost 27-35.
This year BYU returns 17 starters, 9 on offense and 8 on defense and the game is in Provo. Last year BYU couldn't get any consistent QB play. I believe they are much improved with Zach Wilson returning with experience and full first team reps in spring football.
I get Utah has better talent but that all goes out the window with the Holy War.
I'll take the points at home. However if line somehow drops to 3 (which I doubt) I would stay away.
BoL to all.
Exactly why I took BYU at +7
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Quote Originally Posted by jakecece:
FYI BYU has lost 8 straight against Utah but only one of those was by more than 8 points. Last year BYU was up by 17 late 3rd quarter but lost 27-35.
This year BYU returns 17 starters, 9 on offense and 8 on defense and the game is in Provo. Last year BYU couldn't get any consistent QB play. I believe they are much improved with Zach Wilson returning with experience and full first team reps in spring football.
I get Utah has better talent but that all goes out the window with the Holy War.
I'll take the points at home. However if line somehow drops to 3 (which I doubt) I would stay away.
Here is how I am reading the market right now on Utah -4.5 vs BYU ( line is either -4.5 or -5 at this time)
Using Sports Insights data feed, the current status shows that BYU is only receiving 32% of the action but is getting 70% of the total dollars bet. Bigger bettors appear to be on BYU with a full 2 weeks prior to kick off.
What does this mean? Who knows. But if you assume bigger bettors are sharper players, then BYU would be a play.
The line move from +6 to +4.5 also suggests early action leaning heavily to BYU. Is this significant? Maybe. Means a probable lean to BYU.
The clincher in this read is the pct of parlay bettors which are universally square. Currently, a full 92% of the parlay bettors are on Utah. Clear evidence of uninformed parlay players on one side does not make me want to bet Utah.
I ran a Monte Carlo simulation today and it shows a projected score of Utah 27 - 24 over BYU. This would suggest BYU with a 54 to 55% chance to cover the current number of +4.5
Fading the model builders does not show a definitive edge on either side at this time.
Looks to me like the weight of the evidence is pointing to BYU. I think the market will push the line back toward +6 as game time approaches so wait until later and bet a +6 if it appears.
1
Here is how I am reading the market right now on Utah -4.5 vs BYU ( line is either -4.5 or -5 at this time)
Using Sports Insights data feed, the current status shows that BYU is only receiving 32% of the action but is getting 70% of the total dollars bet. Bigger bettors appear to be on BYU with a full 2 weeks prior to kick off.
What does this mean? Who knows. But if you assume bigger bettors are sharper players, then BYU would be a play.
The line move from +6 to +4.5 also suggests early action leaning heavily to BYU. Is this significant? Maybe. Means a probable lean to BYU.
The clincher in this read is the pct of parlay bettors which are universally square. Currently, a full 92% of the parlay bettors are on Utah. Clear evidence of uninformed parlay players on one side does not make me want to bet Utah.
I ran a Monte Carlo simulation today and it shows a projected score of Utah 27 - 24 over BYU. This would suggest BYU with a 54 to 55% chance to cover the current number of +4.5
Fading the model builders does not show a definitive edge on either side at this time.
Looks to me like the weight of the evidence is pointing to BYU. I think the market will push the line back toward +6 as game time approaches so wait until later and bet a +6 if it appears.
So what book posted an opener of BYU +7? I follow the markets very closely and did not see that. Let me know what book opened at 7 because I want to open an account with that sportsbook
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Quote Originally Posted by Ifan_Bates:
Exactly why I took BYU at +7
So what book posted an opener of BYU +7? I follow the markets very closely and did not see that. Let me know what book opened at 7 because I want to open an account with that sportsbook
So what book posted an opener of BYU +7? I follow the markets very closely and did not see that. Let me know what book opened at 7 because I want to open an account with that sportsbook
But I use my local for this site and he made an account on here for me
[144] BYU +7-140 (B+1)
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Quote Originally Posted by combato:
So what book posted an opener of BYU +7? I follow the markets very closely and did not see that. Let me know what book opened at 7 because I want to open an account with that sportsbook
Stations just moved this to +5. It MAY go back to 6, but I wouldn't count on it. Again, what I've been told is that it will be +4 at KO more likely than not.
1
Stations just moved this to +5. It MAY go back to 6, but I wouldn't count on it. Again, what I've been told is that it will be +4 at KO more likely than not.
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