Darth Saban vs. The Mad Hatter

I'm pretty sure you won't regret it.

Quote Originally Posted by SportsGamester:

That ESPN article by Will Harris was hilarious  31- 3 with an unproven big game rookie QB against this defense!

LSU is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Alabama.

LSU is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Alabama.

Normally I would just post the link to an article, but that was an ESPN Insider article so I had to copy and paste it.

I didn't think it was anything wrong with the article, he just concluded it with a rather bold score prediction.  Everyone is entitled to their opinion I guess.

As far as the statistics you cite, they are about as relevent as an 8-track player in a Pinto.  There have only been 3 remotely relevant games between Alabama and LSU (the last three), and Alabama is 2 & 1 in those games, and 1 & 0 in Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Quote Originally Posted by 222bad:

      Liked Bama from the get go in this game, jimmy and seeing you're so confident about the turnover situation, like it even more. The only way, IMO that LSU's wins or covers is if they win the TO battle. The Penn St game, earlier in the year, and  how you called it spot on's enough for me to trust your call on this one also.  Haven't read the whole thread word for word so wondering what your take on the total is.  Myself I thinking low score and under.  You called the Penn St game's final score so close, again I trust you insights, feelings, on this game.  BOL and Roll Tide.

Several posters were saying that Alabama would not cover the Penn State game because the Nittany Lions would feast off of all the turnovers Alabama would commit in a hostile environment.

Recall that Alabama had turned the ball over 5 times the previous week against Kent State.  I said then that betting on Alabama turnovers was fools gold because Alabama would not do it in Happy Valley.  I went on to say that I would wager any Covers poster that Alabama would not lose the turnover margin in that game.  Nobody took me up on the wager.  Alabama went on to win the turnover margin in that game 3 to 0.

LSU has lived largely off of turnovers and field position, but I believe that they will die by the lack of it in this game because I don't think Alabama will turn the ball over.  That will force LSU's offense to drive the length of the field - something I don't believe they can do consistently against Alabama's defense.

Again, like the Penn State game, I will wager any Covers poster that Alabama will not lose the turnover margin in this game.

Even though my final score prediction is 24-13, if I bet the total, I would probably bet the OVER.  With a total of 41, I think the value is in the OVER.  I could easily see a scenario where Alabama gets into the 30s here.

 BOL this weekend bad!!!

Quote Originally Posted by nostradamus12:

nice writeup, looks similar to 09 matchup...seem to recall 24-15, BOL jimmy

Thank you ND!!!

I also think it'll be very much like that game ND.  That was a game where Alabama's physical dominance was not reflected on the scoreboard.  I think this one could play-out much the same becasue Alabama will physically dominate this game.

 BOL with your card this week ND!!!

jimmy 5dimes is offering corso to pick alabama at +200 is this a mistake?

Thanks man

Interesting.  Where have you heard this???

I have an ex-wife and some ex-gfs who think I'm crazy too, so you have some company.

Jimmy-  Much Much respect. I stopped watching ESPN and read your analysis in dept. I leaned LSU + 5 all week. I have seen the best cappers on this site ( of course in my opinion) without naming names on BAMA.

   I'm taking BAMA and the over        .              

If LSU insists on crowding the LOS with 8 or 9 guys, I think McCarron and the receviers will have a very big day.

 Why?

You don't believe that the Tigers are better suited more so than any other team to play lockdown man coverage for the 3 or 4 seconds that it's going to take to either sack A.J. or make him get rid of the ball?

LSU has lived largely off of turnovers and field position, but I believe that they will die by the lack of it in this game because I don't think Alabama will turn the ball over. That will force LSU's offense to drive the length of the field - something I don't believe they can do consistently against Alabama's defense.

 You are not taking into account the huge advantage that the Tigers enjoy at the punter position. Brad Wing is currently 5th nationally in net punting (41.8 ypp).The Tigers will not need turnovers to gain the field position advantage in this one. 'Bama's the team that will likely have to try to go the length of the field for a scoring opportunity. LSU also has the better kicker which also lends itself to less yardage needed to get into scoring position. 

Outstanding write-up and analysis.  I totally agree with you.  I posted the exact score for the outcome of the game in another thread.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101170528

Great minds think alike!  Roll Tide!

booked a small play on it earlier

If I played the total, I would play the OVER, but the total scares me.  I think that is a pretty sharp line.

As for laying the points with Alabama, I feel pretty good about your chances.

X and O all day long but what is the psychological makeup of these teams?

As to your first point, you are confusing the term "receivers" with "wide receivers."  Two of Alabama's biggest threats in the passing game are RB Trent Richardson and TEs Brad Smelley and Michael Williams.  I think Alabama has a significant matchup advantage with their TEs locked up against LSU's diminutive LBers.  If LSU sneaks both of their safeties into the box as they like to do, expect some big plays out of Smelley and Williams down the middle of the field.

I agree that LSU has the better punter in this game, but I have taken it into account.  I said in the beginning of my write-up that there was much I could write about, but for the sake of brevity I would focus on what I thought were the most salient issues.

I believe that LSU will need to score in the 20s to win this game, and I believe the only way they can do that is to generate some turnovers.

  BOL with your card tomorrow!!!

I don't really think either team has a psychological advantage.