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Darth Saban vs. The Mad Hatter

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Posted: #101

And ya......... it is Revis island he's going against.

Maybe worse.

 
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Posted: #102

How many receptions has Claiborne allowed this YEAR?

Can't even think of 1 (1) ONE.

 
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Posted: #103

Jimmydafreak did an excellent writeup

And not trying to trash his thread but LSU is a bunch of badass mother freakers and that shit simply don't apply.

Everything about to get flipped from the get go.

 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by FriedShrimp:

And ya......... it is Revis island he's going against.

Maybe worse.

You are funny thats one thing i will give you.

 
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Posted: #105
I don't make a habit of betting against jimmydafreak.  Contrary, I look for his plays to find games to get with.

This game is uncanny in it's even-steven look.  I think that unless you are a pro on both teams, you are simply gambling  and hoping.  If I gamble this game, which I likely will (because I love the entertainment factor in this one) I will take the points and LSU.  I will have almost zero confidence in my bet, but whatever. I will NOT lose my shorts on this one. 

In my opinion, this game clearly showcases the best two teams in the country.  OU falls behind both...and the rest of the country is a step behind OU.

Take note...whatever team faces either of these teams in the NC game will get rolled. 
 
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Posted: #106

Quote Originally Posted by Vegasbuster:

Someone said this: 2 weeks is not enough time for Saban to prepare for what Miles doesn't know what he will do.

.

TIGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 
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Posted: #107
jimmy.. Sorry for posting my stuff in your thread. I moved it to a separate post.

GLTY.
 
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Posted: #108
on lsu +5, this should be fg or less type of game. good luck this week freak
 
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Posted: #109

I'm late to the game on this, but would like to also applaud you for a fucking amazing write-up. This is honestly one of the best I've ever seen. Thank you for taking the time to do it. Some extremely good info in here.

Nice work.

 
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Posted: #110

Quote Originally Posted by Vegasbuster:

jimmy.. Sorry for posting my stuff in your thread. I moved it to a separate post.

GLTY.

Contrary opinions are always welcome in my thread VB, so you have nothing to apologize for.

 

 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by ksuwins:

I don't make a habit of betting against jimmydafreak.  Contrary, I look for his plays to find games to get with.

This game is uncanny in it's even-steven look.  I think that unless you are a pro on both teams, you are simply gambling  and hoping.  If I gamble this game, which I likely will (because I love the entertainment factor in this one) I will take the points and LSU.  I will have almost zero confidence in my bet, but whatever. I will NOT lose my shorts on this one. 

In my opinion, this game clearly showcases the best two teams in the country.  OU falls behind both...and the rest of the country is a step behind OU.

Take note...whatever team faces either of these teams in the NC game will get rolled. 

What are your thoughts on Kansas and KSU this week.  I like Kansas to cover the 2 TDs against they Cyclones this week.  Should be a high scoring affair.

  BOL with your card this week KSU!!!

 
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Posted: #112

Quote Originally Posted by phancard:

on lsu +5, this should be fg or less type of game. good luck this week freak

Great to see you PC!!!  Best of luck with your card this week!!!

 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by Slick Rick:

I'm late to the game on this, but would like to also applaud you for a fucking amazing write-up. This is honestly one of the best I've ever seen. Thank you for taking the time to do it. Some extremely good info in here.

Nice work.

Thank you Slick Rick, and all the others posters who had kind words.  I just don't have time to respond to every post.

 
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Posted: #114

Quote Originally Posted by Vegasbuster:

LSU is 2nd in the Nation in TO Margin: 1 int and 2 fumbles total. They don't put the ball on the turf or throw picks.

Saban is NOT a great coach with 2 weeks to prepare. At Alabama he is 2-2 (1-2 vs LSU), and he was 3-2 at LSU in his 5 years there. 5-4 overall coming off a bye coaching at LSU and it shows he is at his weakest here.

Miles conversely is 2-1 vs Alabama coming off a bye vs Saban and 4-1 total in his career at LSU coming off a bye.

Someone said this: 2 weeks is not enough time for Saban to prepare for what Miles doesn't know what he will do.

Pundits are saying that LSU will not be able to run the ball vs Alabama, but in the last 4 matchups, LSU has outgained Alabama on the ground in 3 of those; including a 225 to 102 advantage last season. Sure, people will say that Bama's defense is much better than last season, but the same could be said for LSU's offense this season. LSU had a pathetic O last year and had 430+ yards last season.

I just can't see Alabama doing much in the passing game to the outside WRs. The only hope passing are the dump off to TR releasing late out of the backfield, but this won't be enough to keep LSU's D honest.

LSU's STs, especially at punter, are better than Alabama's. Brad Wing of taunting, took back my TD fame, is probably one of the top punters in the country as a freshman. LSU has given up only 7 yards on PRs all season, and I believe those came when Wing was out for 2 games earlier in the season. In the first half it'll be a battle, and if we are exchanging punts back and forth, LSU will gain anywhere from 10-15 yards per exchange. You know both coaches are desperate to win the toss, defer and force a 3-out to get the + field position early in the game. Neither team will consistently put long drives together so the team which wins the field position battle will be the team which will come out ahead.

As for LSU's lightness along the DL. It would be a factor, especially in the 2nd half if they didn't have much depth. However, LSU will roll 4-5 DTs back and forth throughout the game and mix up the DEs when down and distance dictates it.

If Lacy is slowed by the toe injury, it'll all fall on TRs shoulders. He can't win it by himself, and I don't think Alabama has the WRs to give him the support.

LSU 27
Alabama 17

I have addressed most of this in this thread already, but I will comment on the receivers.

What everyone seems to be missing here are Alabama's tight ends.  That is something LSU has not seen a lot of this season.  Brad Smelley and Michael Williams will put pressure on LSU's LBers and Safeties in the middle of the field.  I think both will have opportunities in the passing game.  I also don't think the matchup between Alabama's wide receivers and LSU's secondary is as one-sided as many portray it be.  I think Alabama's wide outs will make their share of plays too.

 

 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

What are your thoughts on Kansas and KSU this week.  I like Kansas to cover the 2 TDs against they Cyclones this week.  Should be a high scoring affair.

  BOL with your card this week KSU!!!


I like KU though I haven't bet them straight up yet ( I've teased them up in some low-dollar action).  ISU is in a let down spot...but man...KU is horrible.  I expect them to score enough to cover.  I also like the KU team total to go over 23.

KSU- I'm on OSU -21, but I'm not real solid on it.  Contrary to what I've posted in prior weeks (I've been dreading this game and I figured OSU would roll it up- but I didn't expect the 2nd half pasting OU laid- KSU's offense could be quite sharp tonight), I've backed off a bit.  The past two have been decided by 6 total points.  Not a great game to bet, as it turns out.  I missed my first KSU bet of the season last week.  The problem is, if you're a stats monster, everything points to OSU.  But that was the case in the last two.  I'd go light on OSU and look at the OSU team total around 46- going Over.  I'm on OSU and rooting like hell for my team.

Tease OSU down or tease KSU up...this line looks pretty damn good.  Let's look for greener pastures in coming weeks.
 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by ksuwins:


I like KU though I haven't bet them straight up yet ( I've teased them up in some low-dollar action).  ISU is in a let down spot...but man...KU is horrible.  I expect them to score enough to cover.  I also like the KU team total to go over 23.

KSU- I'm on OSU -21, but I'm not real solid on it.  Contrary to what I've posted in prior weeks (I've been dreading this game and I figured OSU would roll it up- but I didn't expect the 2nd half pasting OU laid- KSU's offense could be quite sharp tonight), I've backed off a bit.  The past two have been decided by 6 total points.  Not a great game to bet, as it turns out.  I missed my first KSU bet of the season last week.  The problem is, if you're a stats monster, everything points to OSU.  But that was the case in the last two.  I'd go light on OSU and look at the OSU team total around 46- going Over.  I'm on OSU and rooting like hell for my team.

Tease OSU down or tease KSU up...this line looks pretty damn good.  Let's look for greener pastures in coming weeks.

Yes, I know Kansas' defense is dreadful, but I also think they can score enogh to stay competitive in this game.  As bad as they've been this season, they may actually be glad to be playing on the road.

I flirted with taking KSU, but hionestly I just don't have the balls.  Okie Lite has been a covering machine!!!

 

 
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Posted: #117
was hoping to come here and see a .....Bama will win by 5 TD !.....I guarantee it !!!!....kinda thing.....

boys the Freak is right.....Bama is the play here
     *nothing at all wrong with taking the points in a low scoring game like this one though 

Bama has the better coach.....the better offense.....the better DEFENSE.....the best player......and is playing at home......with revenge
    
Confusion here arises from all the media driven crap following LSU ..but maybe deservedly so...as they have been very impressive....
     *question > dontcha think Bama woulda beat up the Ducks....WVag.....and Miss St ?......would WV have gained 550 yds or so on Bama ?....hell yes and then no

while sure the question...... will McCarron rise to the challenge?...... is huge....a better one is.......
How will the smallish speed based D of LSU.....stand up for 4 quarters ......vs the Bama steam roller?

the leading tacklers for LSU?......1st 3 are DB's....in fact 5 of top 7 are DB's ....that means offenses are getting to the 2nd.....and 3rd levels....much more than they should
fine vs the Ducks and Florida maybe....not good here

KEY?.....Bama is loaded with MATURE......NFL ready players.....(*14-15 or so)....the team with the wacky coach and funny nicknames is fun to watch and talk about.....but not ready for this action ...........................maybe
      *for 2012 draft...more later.....LSU maybe 6-7....
8/10 top draft ready players play for Bama....

* interesting stats.....
LSU led the nation in starting field position LY.....and so far this year...
 Bama averages 7.2/rush.....in the 2H

AJ seems to get worse....as they move down the field.....and also .....as the game progresses
inside own 20 > 80%
own 20 - opp 40 > 65%
opp 40 -20 > 85%
RZ > 47%/133 PR.....

1st quarter > 70%
2nd > 67%
3rd > 65%
4th > 56%

BUT ...that Jarrett Lee......
inside 20 > 100%
20-own 40 > 53%
40-40 > 63%
40-20 > 74%
RZ > 67%/285 PR

1st quarter > 55%
2nd > 69%
3rd > 65%
4th > 65%

                    

The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #118
Anyone betting this game is just gambling, if I win my POY bet on Gators early I might consider it.
 
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Posted: #119

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

was hoping to come here and see a .....Bama will win by 5 TD !.....I guarantee it !!!!....kinda thing.....

boys the Freak is right.....Bama is the play here
     *nothing at all wrong with taking the points in a low scoring game like this one though 

Bama has the better coach.....the better offense.....the better DEFENSE.....the best player......and is playing at home......with revenge
    
Confusion here arises from all the media driven crap following LSU ..but maybe deservedly so...as they have been very impressive....
     *question > dontcha think Bama woulda beat up the Ducks....WVag.....and Miss St ?......would WV have gained 550 yds or so on Bama ?....hell yes and then no

while sure the question...... will McCarron rise to the challenge?...... is huge....a better one is.......
How will the smallish speed based D of LSU.....stand up for 4 quarters ......vs the Bama steam roller?

the leading tacklers for LSU?......1st 3 are DB's....in fact 5 of top 7 are DB's ....that means offenses are getting to the 2nd.....and 3rd levels....much more than they should
fine vs the Ducks and Florida maybe....not good here

KEY?.....Bama is loaded with MATURE......NFL ready players.....(*14-15 or so)....the team with the wacky coach and funny nicknames is fun to watch and talk about.....but not ready for this action ...........................maybe
      *for 2012 draft...more later.....LSU maybe 6-7....
8/10 top draft ready players play for Bama....

* interesting stats.....
LSU led the nation in starting field position LY.....and so far this year...
 Bama averages 7.2/rush.....in the 2H

AJ seems to get worse....as they move down the field.....and also .....as the game progresses
inside own 20 > 80%
own 20 - opp 40 > 65%
opp 40 -20 > 85%
RZ > 47%/133 PR.....

1st quarter > 70%
2nd > 67%
3rd > 65%
4th > 56%

BUT ...that Jarrett Lee......
inside 20 > 100%
20-own 40 > 53%
40-40 > 63%
40-20 > 74%
RZ > 67%/285 PR

1st quarter > 55%
2nd > 69%
3rd > 65%
4th > 65%

                

No, Alabama will only win by 4 TDs!!!

JK!!!  Great post!!!  BOL to you today!!!

 

 
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Posted: #120

I'm waiting for your spin.     

 

 I have never bumped a thread like this before but with your tone of absolutism I am genuinely interested in your reaction to 'Bama once again losing toi LSU at home. I mean according to you the Tigers had no shot, and anybody that suggested otherwise was quickly dismisssed by you. So what went wrong? 

 
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Posted: #121
 
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Posted: #122
I just wanted to pop in and say hi

I enjoyed our bye week this week and hated to see our cross town rivals get beat.
 
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Posted: #123

Always enjoy your write-ups and would really like to hear your opinion of what you saw Saturday night...

 

 
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Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by -29-:

I'm waiting for your spin.     

 

 I have never bumped a thread like this before but with your tone of absolutism I am genuinely interested in your reaction to 'Bama once again losing toi LSU at home. I mean according to you the Tigers had no shot, and anybody that suggested otherwise was quickly dismisssed by you. So what went wrong? 

You evidently have some serious reading comprehension issues, because I never said anything remotely close to what you are saying.  I note that you cite no examples, nor can you.

 

 
 
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Posted: #125

Quote Originally Posted by Gene-Chizik:

I just wanted to pop in and say hi

I enjoyed our bye week this week and hated to see our cross town rivals get beat.

Ahhhhhhh the schadenfreude of a rival.

 

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