Falcon Sports (Power Totals Model)

One late night addition

Hawaii Over 51.5

I just noticed it had become a play. The model has this one at (56.5)

Falcon Sports 

@MITM

 Good work brother

It was a crazy day for me. I went from playing one bet at a time to betting 19 plays today.

Update

Falcon Sports (Power Totals)

12-8 (+3.20 units)

To win one unit on each at (-110) odds

CFB (7-4)

NHL (5-4)

Pending Saturday night 

Hawaii Over 51.5

I'm about finished with the NFL for Sunday.

I'll get the entire card up pretty early Sunday morning.

Falcon Sports 

Nice to finish with an easy Winner, on to Sunday.

13 October (2-0)

14 October (11-8)

Falcon Sports 

@MITM

 Great job!  Keep it up!

@TDHCentral

 Thanks 

But this is an automated model. I built it and ill update the data but thats all I have to do with it. 

The model generates what I believe is a True Mathematical Total. I then compare my number to the books posted total. If its off by a certain amount, we have a play.

This is the first time I've wagered and tracked every single selection that the model suggests.

We will continue to see how it goes. 

Falcon Sports 

Falcon Sports (Power Totals)

13-8 (+4.20 units)

To win one unit on each at (-110) odds

CFB (8-4)

NHL (5-4)

NFL (0-0)

Sunday October 15

Tennessee Under 42.5 NFL 

This is an early play in London. 

Couple notes for Sunday if your following. I don't have anything on the baseball game, my model has that at (8.4) runs. 

I'll return later with more plays for Sunday.

I use a 3pt difference to generate a play in the NFL, compared to a 5pt difference in CFB.

Back later

Falcon Sports 

Two plays up now for Sunday

Tennessee Under 42.5 

Houston Under 42.5

I'll keep updating as plays are made.

Falcon Sports 

Power Totals for Sunday 

Tennessee Under 42.5 

Houston Under 42.5 

Miami Over 47

Vegas Under 41.5

Tampa Over 42.5

Falcon Sports 

Thanks Fuse

Here is the final card of Power Totals for Sunday October 15

Tennessee Under 42.5

Houston Under 42.5 

Miami Over 47

Vegas Under 41.5 

Tampa Over 42.5 

Anaheim Over 6

I believe that is all. 

Continuing on with the question. Can a math guy build a model to beat the books on sports totals. 

Falcon Sports 

Falcon Sports (Power Totals)

14-8 (+5.20 units)

To win one unit on each at (-110) odds

CFB (8-4)

NHL (5-4)

NFL (1-0)

Pending for Sunday October 15

Houston Under 42.5 

Miami Over 47

Vegas Under 41.5 

Tampa Over 42.5 

Anaheim Over 6

May take this show on the road to Tunica next weekend. 

Falcon Sports 

@MITM

 Thank you!

Falcon Sports (Power Totals)

16-8 (+7.20 units)

To win one unit on each at (-110) odds

CFB (8-4)

NHL (5-4)

NFL (3-0)

Pending Sunday October 15

Vegas Under 41.5 

Tampa Over 42.5

Anaheim Over 6

Fingers crossed guys. 

Drop in anytime.

Falcon Sports 

Falcon Sports (Power Totals)

17-9 (+7.10 units)

To win one unit on each 

CFB (8-4)

NHL (5-4)

NFL (4-1)

Pending Sunday night

Anaheim Over 6

Falcon Sports 

Quite the start for my Power Totals model 

Falcon Sports (Power Totals)

18-9 (+8.10 units)

To win one unit on each at (-110) odds

CFB (8-4)

NHL (6-4)

NFL (4-1)

Check back soon for Mondays Power Totals 

Falcon Sports 

Really nice work

Thanks for sharing!

Love Analytics and will be watching this closely....more interested in the secret sauce than the result , because I know, that is more fun!!! 

Nice system so far 

@SteelUbaldo

 Thanks

No problem 

Falcon Sports 

@Last2thirst

 I hear you

I've been in this business since 1986 and have been involved in every aspect of it and I mean every part of it. The toughest thing that I've learned is,,,,,, my personal opinion means nothing. Think about that, I've seen thousands of games and my opinion means nothing. 

I have an extensive background in Mathematics and just a few years ago, I turned all this over to Math. I no longer handicap. I applaud people that can handicap successfully, I can't do it. 

I believe the answer lies in the Math. I think that Totals are more beatable than sides. Lets just say the Math works better. 

Without saying too much in a public forum, I have an 8 step formula. What I've learned is that certain statistics are very very important and other statistics are worthless. U have to find out which is which. 

Here is another one of my beliefs. Keep your model (formula) very very current. Example, it matters very little what the Phillies did back in April or May. Season long stats make up no more than 20% of my formula. 80% of it is very very current. 

Sorry for rambling, I said these things and I still hope to be right only 55% of the time. Thats my line in the sand.

I spend my time keeping each sport very current. I update the formula after each game. I have to hit 55% for this to be worth my time. Its not so bad until basketball season arrives. I cringe when I think of the Saturdays that are coming with 150 games on the board.

Back soon with plays for Monday.

Falcon Sports 

Falcon Sports (Power Totals)

18-9 (+8.10 units)

To win one unit on each at (-110) odds

CFB (8-4)

NHL (6-4)

NFL (4-1)

Monday night

Seven possible plays but only one barely qualifies.

Chargers Under 51

I have this at 48pts. So just a three point difference. The minimum of what I use for an NFL play. 

Good luck guys. 

Falcon Sports 

If anyone has any questions, fire away. I've been in this business since August 1986.

I'm mostly retired now, so I have alot of free time. I won't give u my formula but ill discuss things. 

Here in a nutshell is what I'm trying to prove here. 

Its my opinion that the books set great numbers, they have the best of everything to do this. But and here it is,,,,,, I don't think they always set the best Mathematical total. They most often do but there are times they fudge the Mathematical total to draw equal betting action. 

Perfect example yesterday.

They hung a (47) total on the Miami game. This was not the best Mathematical total. My formula had this at (54). A whopping 7pt difference and u can see the outcome. It sailed Over both these numbers. This is what I'm trying to exploit. 

Tonight, they are hanging a (51). I have this at (48). Now this is my minimum difference but I vowed in this thread to play every game that qualifies, on this scale.

NHL (0.75) goals 

MLB (1.00) runs

NFL (3.00) pts

CFB (5.00) pts

CBB (5.00) pts

NBA (5.00) pts

Those are the minimum differences that I use to make a play. There are a few exceptions. As in weather in football and an injury to a QB. And these two only qualify if I want the Over. If I had the Under, they wouldn't matter.

Falcon Sports 

I applaud your methodology, thanks for sharing, results over the weekend speak for themselves, agree capping is not easy, many variables you can't control, wish you continued success.   

@Coben

 Thanks but whose capping?

I quit trying to handicap a few years ago. I don't see how anyone does it. 

I hear alot of opinions and picks but I value none of them and that includes me at the top of that list. 

The reason for the selections in this thread are 100% automated and Mathematical. 

Falcon Sports 

@MITM

 Thanks for your work!