Falcon Sports (Power Totals Model)

I don't want to mislead anyone here.

I'll post 100 Power Totals in this thread, if I hit at least 55 of them, this thread will continue for another 100 plays. 

If u follow it and it wins, it will be a available to you right here at Covers. 

I have no idea how this is going to play out. I've got alot of past top plays that says it should be good. I've got early indicators that say it should work but you never know.

If u are actually betting these plays, keep it small for now and keep in mind that there are some Saturdays coming where the volume will be huge. Think about a Saturday with college football and basketball and the NHL. 

I cringe thinking about my workload those days. 

I built this model initially for basketball but man college basketball requires alot of work from me. 

So if I'm going to put this time and effort into this, it has to hit at a 55% clip or better. 

But my dream in this business was to build a model that is automated and can win. Sort of a personal ATM machine. 

Follow along this journey 

Falcon Sports 

@Brickboy

 No problem but as I said in the post right above this one.

It has to win at a 55% clip or better or its just not worth it to me.

I have alot on the line here. Not so much in money. I'm not worried about the money but I've got so much time and effort in this. I couldn't begin to count it up. 

And even though I'm through with the building process, I still must update after every game is played and that takes time and effort.

We will see how this goes.

Can a True Mathematical Total beat their posted total 55% of the time, thats the question that I want answered.

Falcon Sports 

I'm not ready to place any wagers for Tuesday just yet but it looks like all 3 games may qualify as a play tomorrow night. 

Not sure when I'll pull the trigger.

One thing I'm working on currently is trying to find the best time to place the wagers. 

Right now here is my process.

I update all data to keep it very current.

I run games through formula to get my Mathematical Total.

I line shop at 4 or 5 places to get best line. I say 5 because I have a longtime local that I can use, as well as 4 online books. I also frequent Tunica a couple times per month. So I have access to several different lines.

I post the wagers at Covers and on Twitter. I email several older associates that don't do any social media but have email.

I text a close friend that is a Mathematics major from UAH.

So there is alot involved with this. 

I'm looking for optimal time to do this? Any thoughts. I'm looking at a window of 2-3 hrs before the first game of the day starts.

I don't want to be tied all day to this. I'm not a screen watcher, my time is worth more. I have several people that follow this and I don't want to hold them up.

Looking for best time to run this process. 

Falcon Sports 

Appreciate all you do! 

@MightyJC

 Thanks

I just hope we can hit that minimum 55% Winners, so its worth it to continue.

U guys feel free to drop in. Im mostly retired with few hobbies but this. 

Falcon Sports 

@MITM

 Trying to get your Chase E bet in, but my book (Bookmaker) has had the Philly TT line locked since yesterday, but they have Dbacks TT lines up.  I wonder why?  I really need to get it in!  Would you know why?  TIA

What do you think of under 50 in tonight‘s game? That’s the total I’m getting? Would you by a point? Thx yes

@Dental

 I don't by points on a total, so no.

Here is the deal tonight.

My Power Total is (48), thats about where the books opened it, so we agreed there. It moved to 51 and thsts where it became a bet for me 

I'm trying to follow my model and rules exactly on these 100 plays, so I had to get Under 51 or I wouldn't bet it. 

If u want to play it, just bet Under 50 and hope it doesn't hit 50 or 51 tonight.

Best advice I have.

Falcon Sports 

@TDHCentral

 Sorry Bama girl but I don't know why. Its available at my books.

Falcon Sports 

@MITM

 Maybe they are waiting for the Rangers game to be over... no idea.v  However, I need another E play LOL

@TDHCentral

 Can't help u there, sorry

Falcon 

Thank you!!

@MITM

 What about Dbacks under 3.5 TT?  It's at -157?

@TDHCentral

 That has to be your call, I'm neutral on that. I would assume Wheeler pitches well but my opinion on this stuff is worth no more than anyone else. 

Good luck in whatever u play. 

Falcon Sports 

@TDHCentral

 My Power Total on this one is 7.69. So I would expect Philly to win 4-3 or 5-3 but thats just projection. My model would have this total at 7.5 and thats not worth a play. 

Falcon Sports 

nice Phili TT over!! 

@MITM

 I took Philly -1 as I liked it already and grabbed the Dback TT under 3.5 for around my E play just to try to get near my D bet on the Chase. If I can at least even out on the Chase, I'll be good since I know you won't continue the chase win or lose.  Had to do something.... hope it works out.

Was thinking hockey still too little of results to go off of?

Also wouldn't 55% be losing money in the long run?

@yanks21x

 Are u serious??? Is that a legit question 

55% against a (-110) line?

Dude, 52.4% is breakeven against a (-110) line.

Falcon Sports 

@TDHCentral

 Congrats, glad it worked out for you. 

We will pick (The Chase) back up at some point. 

Falcon Sports 

@Dental

 Thanks, that was a no sweat one.

Falcon Sports 

Falcon Sports (Power Totals)

19-9 (+9.10 units)

To win one unit on each at (-110) odds

CFB (8-4)

NHL (6-4)

NFL (5-1)

I just updated everything. I'll run the games for Tuesday soon.

As soon as I wager myself, ill post the plays.

That was a no sweat one tonight.

Falcon Sports 

We’re not worthy. Nice work!! 

Thanks for the winners.

@heyyomikey07

 Thanks

Falcon Sports 

Basically, I  evened out on the loss with the D play.  Plus, I won the Philly ML and I followed in the NFL under.  Thankfully, saved the D loss Chase bet, and just evened out the E.  I know you're testing your power totals, but I really like your chase too.  JMO