Falcon Sports (Power Totals Model)

@MITM

Periods of rain. Low near 55F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall around a half an inch.

@JITTZZ1

 Ok, makes a little sense. I don't think rain impacts the game as much as wind. 

If that's the reason, we may be ok.

I just don't want it to be kickoff and this total is at 47. If it is, we may have a problem. 

But in the big scheme of things, this is just one bet out of 100.

Falcon Sports 

Adding Blues Under 6 NHL

I can get (+100) on this and I don't think I see (6.5) without paying up for it.

This makes 4 plays.

I'll update later today. Have to work a little bit.

Falcon Sports 

i'm always surprised at the "weather" bettors who hammer unders based on rain (unless it's downpours which are rare).  you're right that wind is a much bigger issue

i like the research and modeling (i'm a big math and numbers guy) and i love screen watching (who knows why!?).  it's stuff i really like but tbh wouldnt know where to start modeling.  

is it possible to reduce your time with automation to make things easier for you?  though agree weather is the unknown when you're looking at something 6 days away.
not like you need some random stranger on the internets to tell you how to do your modeling .   would love to pick your brain on the modeling aspect but certainly know you shouldnt give up your info/data either.  that's why i tend to follow more than originate my own plays

have a great rest of the day!

Weather reports are way too fluid. and subject to opinion.

I looked at weather channel, and they have tonight's weather at15% chance of rain. wind from south 9mph

I used to look at weather updates all the time.

i lost more money not placing my original bet, than i did on weather.

This is always a go to post. Thanks for the work you do

@MITM

 The weather in Huntington, WV tonight between 7-10pm:

65°

7 mph winds

10-20% chance of rain 

@jefff

 I just finished working for the day. Took about an hour.

As for modeling.

I got into it around 2010, mostly on sides. Like everyone had my ups and downs. It did take me completely out of handicapping and into the nerdy side of this business.

About 2-3 years ago I got into totals. This was mostly for basketball and football. I still think those will be the best sports for this model. Hockey is different and baseball is very different. But I call them all Power Totals. They all involve basically an 8 step formula that I've created.

This is the first time that I've had a finished product on each sport and the first time that I'm playing every play. I wrestled for quite a while with the volume question. I'm not a high volume guy and have spoken out against it several times. But I'm trying to walk down this road and see where it goes. 

Let me tell u a couple things.

1. Keep your data (model / formula) very very very current. Season long stats make up no more than 20% of my formula. It means very little what Texas and Houston did back in April. Remember this and don't include it too much. I use about 20% of it 

2. Here is where the secret sauce comes in. Some statistics are useless. U may spend countless time on some things that just don't matter. And then there are a few statistics that are crucial, almost everything. Finding out which is which is where the work comes in and the fun, if u like that sort of thing.

I would advise playing small and building up, if u get something good. Most everything works when your paper trading (practicing). Use real money but bet small, it will give u better results.

Im betting small here ($100), if it works i can go up quickly.

I enjoy the banter. Check in often.

Falcon Sports 

@mccofp

 Thanks man

My bet is in on this one, nothing i can do now. 

Good luck to everyone thats on this Over with me.

Falcon Sports 

@dcbets4lf

 Thanks and no problem

Drop in anytime 

I'll be here as long as its working and I'm enjoying myself. Just like everyone else.

Where I am at in life,,,,, this is just a great hobby. I don't need to do this for a living, my living is made. Its funny when u really realize that. 

I now only want to stay active and do what I really enjoy. If I don't enjoy it, I'm not doing it. My business building days are behind me and thsts ok with me.

But I do want to win and be successful but I don't have to win and there is a big difference in those two. 

This is a tough business (I know), id advise keeping it as a good hobby or side hustle.

Falcon Sports 

Mitm glad ur enjoying ur early retirement, glad u clarifed ur side hustle thought u might be pimping.keep up the great work MIT

@finsterbaby

 Ha ha, I hear you. 

My pimping days are over also. 

Falcon Sports 

Alright guys, here is the final card for Thursday.

Falcon Sports (Power Totals)

24-11 (+11.90 units)

To win one unit on each at (-110) odds

CFB (10-5)

NHL (8-5)

NFL (5-1)

MLB (1-0)

Today's Power Totals 

Phillies Over 9 MLB

Marshall Over 49 CFB

Minnesota Over 6 NHL

Blues Under 6 NHL 

Colorado Under 6.5 NHL

Let me address the Phillies total. I sort of overlooked that 4pm start. My model projects this at (9.90) runs, so a total of (10) would be the better total. They insist on the (9). This is very similar to last night.

Good luck if you follow any of these.

Falcon Sports 

Hourly weather for Huntington, WVA right now >> winds dying down slowly from mid 20's in kilometers for gusts but sustained winds around 15-18 km/hr (divide by 1.6 to get miles per hour) and continuing to show the descent in strength through the whole game down to less than 10 mph and light occasional showers for the first half and then nothing likely in the second half

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/hourly-weather-forecast/west-virginia/huntington

Total @Bet365 has gone from 47.5 at 9am to now 49 at 1pm

@Last2thirst

 Far cry from the (60) my model has. I kind of felt or feel like the wind is going to be a factor. 

But honestly, thank u guys for the interest and the weather reports (really) but its just one game. I bet it and now I'm going to forget it.

Good luck to us 

Falcon Sports 

As I have stated before, I rarely see major differences in posted hourly weather vs what is reported if I use theweathernetwork hourly, and I use it successfully for edges in horse racing handicapping.....its very important there too

I do not see weather as a mitigating factor for dampening scoring tonight based on what I see. Will poor play cause an Under and have nothing to do with the weather, yes , that can happen but based on a 6-0 team all of a sudden becoming less motivated playing a good Marshall team now finding some kinks in their game, I trust we should have some play and 'form regularity' on that basis alone 

This Philly total is very interesting and very similar to the Texas game last night. 

My model has (10.10) last night and they put out (9). They were wrong but they were stuck.

Today they come with (9) on Philly game, my model has it (9.90) runs. So they should be at 10.

Honestly both games today should have come out at (9.5). The Texas game did, they wised up there. Not sure why they came with (9) on Philly.

Who knows maybe they beat me today. I just want to be better 55% of the time.

Falcon Sports 

An update on the hourly weather at 4:30 pm for Marshall game

NO RAIN expected now for the whole game, no change to wind speed or direction....nice football conditions

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/hourly-weather-forecast/west-virginia/huntington?wx_auto_reload=

Rain comes in around midnight ....

@Last2thirst

 Great, sounds good. Let's get to 50pts.

I don't watch these games and won't be around much this evening. More grandkids soccer to attend. 

Tomorrow appears to be a very light day. I'll probably spend a good bit of time tomorrow running some college football for Saturday.

Get us some winners tonight. Win, lose or push, ill be out at least until the late nhl game.

Falcon Sports 

@LAC63

 Thanks man

I don't know how these 100 plays will turn out, I'm hoping for at least 55% Winners 

But some time soon I'm going to use the very best of the Power Totals in a (Chase) and also the 1000 play challenge. These are both played in a one at a time format, which has always been my sweet spot.

Anyone interested in watching those 2 ran simultaneously?

Falcon Sports 

BOL tonight   following up on friend request 

Thanks.

Dang you were right about Marshall.. this game will be lucky to hit 20