Falcon Sports (Power Totals Model)

@icemantbi

 Not for me, I bet many hours ago but I like hearing pinnacle moved it. 

Falcon Sports 

@MITM

 I typically use this:  https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/weather

Not sure what you mean by trust it, but I do.

I was going to say also, I find it curious, as a fellow Southerner, that you don't like NBA, but you like NHL.  It doesn't matter either way, but I do find it odd.  I will say, I don't care as much about NFL as I do college football.  I also prefer college basketball over the NBA.  I detest NHL altogether!  LOL

@TDHCentral

 I don't think I ever said I like the NHL. I will say, playoff hockey is about as exciting as it gets.

I don't watch much sports anymore. I watch college football and March madness but thats about it. 

Falcon Sports 

@TDHCentral

 Give me a weather report for Marshall. That total is off but is it due to the weather, specifically the wind.

This is very important. It will determine if there is a bet or not.

Falcon Sports 

You guys know that this one tonight was sort of a gimme. 

The model had them and they were trapped on that (9).

Wish they all lined up like this.

Falcon Sports 

Falcon Sports (Power Totals)

24-11 (+11.90 units)

To win one unit on each 

CFB (10-5)

NHL (8-5)

NFL (5-1)

MLB (1-0)

I have my Power Totals for Thursday now. I like to work on tomorrow's games, when today's games start. Not sure when I'll line shop and wager.

I need to know how strong the wind is going to be in the Marshall game tomorrow night. They have that total off but is it due to the weather.

Not sure when I'll post Thursdays plays. 

Falcon Sports 

Great pick , thank you 

@MITM

 62 degrees at game time, only going down 2-3 degrees from there.  0% chance of precip and 7.7 NNE winds.  Weather is insignificant it seems.  Played at Joan C. Edwards stadium, Huntington. Hope this helps.

@TDHCentral

 I saw 18mph winds. That's a big difference. I'll dig more tomorrow.

Falcon Sports 

System delivers with one play tonight 

Hey, I factor wind direction and where it moves on the field of play for baseball and football and humidity for the reason that even very high winds are what I call a knock down wind of heavy air so sink resistance tends to flatten a rising throw or hit

I can vouch for the field dimensions and wind direction alignment here in Covers is pretty good as I used to view the stadium configuration on Google Maps

Here is the weather page on Covers for this weeks game and it changes, updates quite regularly 

https://www.covers.com/sports/ncaaf/weather

Just checked theweathernetwork Hourly weather with winds and from south only 10-12 mph the whole game and rain expected to fall in first half....so confirm what is in Covers

@Last2thirst

 Thanks

Your opinion on the weather in Marshall game tomorrow night.

Falcon Sports 

Non factor...south wind, so not knockdown and rising air .... I am a horse racing handicapper for standardbreds too (which is why track position and wind direction is also huge) so this weather is meh as a factor.

Here is the hourly in Canadian KM/H winds on the hourly....just skip ahead on the arrow and you will see the winds at 14-21 km/hr which is 9 -13 mph and winds from the south https://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/hourly-weather-forecast/west-virginia/huntington

Falcon Sports (Power Totals)

24-11 (+11.90 units)

To win one unit on each at (-110) odds

CFB (10-5)

NHL (8-5)

NFL (5-1)

MLB (1-0)

Thursday October 19

Marshall Over 49 CFB 

Minnesota Over 6 NHL 

Colorado Under 6.5 NHL 

I'm almost positive there will be additional plays today. 

Check back later 

Falcon Sports 

@MITM

 Good morning,thanks for the play last night and the work you put into it much appreciated!

I know your only a 1/3 of the way through and the system looks promising, if it reaches the 55% are you considering testing it again for a total of 300 plays to confirm the system?

I’m an early riser myself and I’ve been up since 4:45 jarring vinegar peppers, checking out the system and handicapping baseball which I don’t post due to my  mediocre success rate, I’m a 77 year old retired union bricklayer who’s trying to keep his mind sharp  with numbers so I find your system very interesting!
I wish you great success going forward and will be following every morning at 5am.

@Brickboy

 Very nice to hear from you. 

I'm 56, mostly retired. I have a good side hustle, to keep me busy and active (non sports related). My passion and main hobby these days are sports building models. Its funny, my research is what I enjoy these days. I hardly watch games, except college football. I enjoy watching college football. I almost never watch a game that I wager on. 

In so many ways, The Power Totals model may be my masterpiece. I know the Top Plays should do well. Like the baseball game last night. I wanted to tell everyone, this is a great play, get on it but I did not. 

Totals are where the books are vulnerable. I've talked to some very very smart people about this and I'm not talking sports bettors. I'm talking real Math guys, two in particular. My next door neighbor is semi retired from the US Space and Rocket Center, he still does consulting work with them. I have a client that is a longtime friend that works with Lockheed Martin, both of these guys are not sports bettors but both have seen this model at some point and both agree that this is where the books can be had. 

I'm more of an entrepreneur but I have a background in Mathematics but I went a different direction in life but now I'm putting some of that to use. 

But in saying all that. It doesn't mean this will work but it does have a shot. 

U stay in touch and ill be around as long as this works. We will look at this at play #100. If I'm pleased with things, ill continue on. 

Back later, I'm watching a few lines today. 

Falcon Sports 

Let me be transparent about a few games tonight and whats going on. I won't always do this but today I will share.

The Blues Under will be a play tonight. I want to get 6.5. Right now I can get it at (-125) but I'm not sure about paying that. But the Blues Under 6 is also a play and ill be on one of these two. I'm just weighing out my options.

San Jose Under 6.5 is a play also but they are not a plsy at Under 6. I can pay (-134) right now and get the (6.5). I'm probably not going to do this. Maybe it goes lower today. 

Let's look at Marshall. My model has this game at (60). I just bet Over 49. This is an 11pt difference but what I've found out is that I don't like this. When it gets to a 10pt difference. Its one of two reasons. Its the weather, that's why I kept wanting a weather report or its what I call an outlier. I had rather have a difference of 5, 6, 7, 8 and maybe 9 but when the difference rises to more than 10pts. Something is off and I'm wary of it. I'll roll with it however I'm leery of it. The Power Totals model just spits out a number. It doesn't know anything about the wind conditions or this being an outlier but I do. 

More later 

Falcon Sports 

@Brickboy

 U post more often in this thread. Over the last few years I've sold a couple of businesses and all my rental property so I'm pretty much retired.

I do have one small business that I still own and operate. I have a very small pest control business to keep me busy. I have 106 customers and I'm not looking for anymore but people keep asking me to spray their house (ha ha), so I do it, if they are close. I love the pest control business but I'm too old to grow it. It keeps me busy and moving about 45-50 hrs per month. I have 2 grandkids (4 and 9) if either of them want to get into the business, I will give it to them and if I'm able, ill help them to grow it. 

This morning I'm working 9-11. Hope I can handle that. Ha ha. I also walk 15,000 steps every single day, I never miss, ever.

But changing gears here.

For those that followed (The Chase), someday soon I'm going to do one with just the best plays from the Power Totals model. Not bragging but I can't remember those ever losing 5 in a row. I also may do the 1000 play challenge with it. Just rambling about my plans with the Top Plays for the Power Totals model.

Brickboy, u post often in here. 

Back later guys

Falcon Sports 

do you think it would be advantageous to bet the football totals on Monday when they come out before they get hammered by other groups?  or do you think waiting is the better option, especially if weather is a concern?

except for those that need really big limits to bet (those people and group are rare), betting early before others have a chance to move the number to a worse place.

of course, sometimes they move the number to a better place like Marshall.  Opens 52 and bet down to 49, making your play even better.  Might be worth tracking to see if the opening numbers more often move against you (giving you worse or no value) or with you (give you better value like tonight's game)

i have vision of doing models myself once I (semi-)retire.  totals are definitely the best place to focus since most everyone else is looking at sides

good luck and thanks for sharing

@jefff

 Simple answer. I think my model would beat their openers at a higher rate. 

I don't trust the weather situations to do that and I'm not going to be tied to a screen. I love the research but I'm not a screen watcher.

I also am a big time and I mean big time creature of habit. I prefer to just work one day at a time. Honestly I don't want to give this business anymore of my time. I could already have bet every football game for the week but I haven't. 

I've spent time getting set up for the nba but I haven't ran one college football game for Saturday and Lord knows thsts going to take a while. 

But let's talk about that Marshall game tonight. I do not like the line movement. Either its weather or they are screwing with us here. If its weather, I completely understand and we shouldn't be betting the Over. I just know my model has it at (60) and its 49 now. That's not right. I bet it but I'm leery.

If the weather is fine and they are not screwing with us, then we will win this one but if the weather is bad or something is up with this, we are in trouble here. 

As I said in college football. I like to see the 5, 6, 7, 8pt difference. When it gets to 10 or more, something is off. 

We will see.

Falcon Sports 

I just looked, I can bet Marshall Over 49 (-105). Something is not right.

I'm telling u right now this is a bad total. Either the wind is going to blow harder or is a QB out. Something isn't right. Is there some funny business going on?

Falcon Sports 

@MITM

 There's always funny business going on.