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Freak Pics!!! (Week 2)

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Posted: #151
Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:

Jimmy- Great write up as always.. I am a graduate of bama in 09' and you are spot on with everything.. Bama has been dreaming about this rematch with texas atm.   People are totally overreacting to the poor offensive performance and how the o-line looked bad against tech, but u pointed out a lot of the reasons why.

bama will beat texas atm by 10+ pts




 
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Posted: #152
Quote Originally Posted by abizzo24:

Jimmy, news flash:

ND has the advantage in the trenches this week.   i know this is something you pay attention to.




Absolutely.  It's the most overlooked aspect in handicapping.

Although Notre Dame may have an advantage in the trenches, I don't think it's a significant one.  I like Michigan to win the game, but these games are always pretty much coin flips.  For that reason I would play the points.  The only way I would bet Michigan would be on the moneyline.


 
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Posted: #153
Quote Originally Posted by xtra-point:

This is one of the best post I have ever read from any cappers or public bettor. If we can all get together and take the time that you put in to this we be a lot more wealthier. I will do my best to give you any information that I know from any publications that I read. The people that put you down on a losing bet are the ones looking for excuses why they didn't win instead of picking on there own. Thank You Jimmy may we all get along, share and have a profitable year.


I agree.  Getting info from people all over the country is very helpful.  That's what makes a forum like this so powerful.


 
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Posted: #154
Jimmy-

I think the total for the LSU game is about 10-12 pts too high- the only concern i have is Miles might let the offense go all out for the whole game with the new off cord - defense might give up a little but i see a 38-13 type game- the under may be a half unit degen play for me- i will be at the game to see it first hand-heck I just might take a stab at wake tonight! 

Good luck! 
 
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Posted: #155
   Agreed, I would also add special teams, coaching, crowd noise and the ever powerful emotion of revenge when applied realistically to the right team can also be a factor maybe  3 to 6 points extra value.
 
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Posted: #156
Boom- 

If you think jwheels is delusional about florida, you may want to look in the mirror- you are the same way with clemson- 

Facts: 2012- Florida beat A&M, LSU, Florida St, & South Carolina- finished 11-2

2012- Clemson lost to Florida St and South Carolina- the two common opponents and finished 11-2

Its amazing how you continue to trash the SEC and how you get so butt hurt over criticism of clemson
 
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Posted: #157
Quote Originally Posted by composite:

Thanks for the write-up, JDF.

One question - why is Bama treating A&M like their GOY?

Back in '08, I understood why Bama prepared for Florida. Because UF was the defending champ and was preseason #1.  A&M is a top 10 team this year. That's good, but it seems strange to treat them as a GOY.  LSU is higher ranked for instance.  Plus, toward the end of LY's game, Bama's O had its way with the A&M defense? If anything, I would think Bama's D would want to withhold some schemes from the A&M O. 

Don't get me wrong, A&M is obviously an important game. But why is the Bama coaching staff trying so hard to keep their offense under wraps from A&M? 



I think the answer is threefold.  The first obvious answer is that Texas A&M beat them last season.  The second is that they are a conference foe that they'll have to play every year.  And lastly, the holding back strategy works here because Texas A&M is the second game of the season.  If they were playing Texas A&M the 7th game of the season, they wouldn't be able to get away with doing that.

Saban self-scouts his team.  He knows what they've put on tape.  and he knows that based on what is on tape, an opposing coach is likely to do a, b, c.  Obviously then, Saban will put together a game plan to counter what he thinks the other team is likely to do.

Texas A&M is doing the same thing.  You can bet they'll have some new wrinkles saved up for Alabama as well.


 
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Posted: #158
Quote Originally Posted by Dead_Presidents:

Jimmy, great write up!  Thanks for your contribution to the site. 

Sportsbook.com currently has Alabama at -7 at A&M under their "Games of the Year" category.  I have been thinking about Max betting (330 to win 300 is the most Sportsbook.com allows for "Games of the Year' bets) Alabama at -7.  Do you think there is any chance this game will be under a 7 point spread at any time before kickoff or should I just go ahead and take -7 while I can get it?

A week ago I nearly bet South Carolina at +5 against Georgia, but I held off hoping to get a full touchdown if Georgia beat Clemson.  Now I am kicking myself for not taking South Carolina at +5.  Anyway the South Carolina line is now +3 to +3.5, but I may just take the South Carolina ML at +140.  I think South Carolina wins this game straight up because they are better in the trenches on both sides of the ball.  Any thoughts on South Carolina at Georgia?



There is no shot this line will be available below a touchdown IMO.  I think the opening number will be in the 8-9 range, and will probably creep up from there.


 
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Posted: #159
Quote Originally Posted by ifo:

Jimmy I appreciate very all the insight u r providing.  I value your input so, although this is a NCAAF thread, may I ask ur thoughts on tonight nfl opener?
I am leaning Broncos.  Thanks


I didn't bet it, but I told others that I liked the OVER.  Instead I bet the OVER in the FAU/ECU game.


 
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Posted: #160
Quote Originally Posted by moyer8989:

Jimmy do you like the Gators @-3 .  I just feel there D will win the game for them.  Also do you like Cincy @ -7?  Thanks for last weeks Best Bets!


I LOVE the Gators.  Miami is not ready yet to match the Gators in the trenches.  There is also a big discrepancy in defenses.  There is no question in my mind that Florida wins the game.

I like Cincinnati as well, and mainly as a fade of Illinois.  I think that team is a mess right now.


 
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Posted: #161
Quote Originally Posted by TimTowner:

Jimmy.....Do you think heat plays any factor to visiting teams to Arizona State?  For example, it is almost 110 today and it will be around 105 at game time for visiting Sacramento St.

The average temperature in Sacramento in September is the low 90s/upper 80s.

It takes two weeks for someone's body to acclimate to extreme heat/cold.

Is this a betting angle or do the books already have that built into the line?  


Heat is all about acclimation.  If you're acclimated to it, it's easier to deal with.  Arizona's heat is famous for giving opposing teams trouble, so I think it is a valid angle indeed.


 
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Posted: #162
Quote Originally Posted by kevinpersonal:

Jimmy, any thought on Baylor -27?


I like Buffalo.


 
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Posted: #163
Quote Originally Posted by Red_Soxxxxxxxx:

I think the Hurricanes can draw hope from Clemson’s home dog victory v. Georgia last Saturday night. Never easy to fade the superior defense in a win situation, but I will offer some support for the Hurricanes at this price. Florida again struggled on offense in their opener last Saturday, a 24-6 win, no cover against Toledo. They did, however, dominate the Rockets overland 262-50 and controlled the clock 40-20. But the Miami Fla offense proved that it is a force with which opponents must reckon. 18 RS make them one of the most experienced teams of the year for 3rd year HC Golden. The Canes got a confidence building boost with 503 offensive yards in the 34-6 win, no cover v. Fla. Atlantic. But Golden’s teams have been just that as indicated by his Underdog record of 9-3 ATS in that role in 2 years with Miami and 18-8 ATS as short L5Y dating to his tenure at Temple. ACC pulls another upset against the vaunted SEC.

 

I see everyone and their brother, sister, aunt, uncle, and pet are asking Jimmy on opinions on 1000 other games other than the games he posted. I think you are going to have to claim all these folks come income tax time since they are all dependents.

Good luck Jimmy and keep the winners coming as I pick and choose to tail some and go against some.



I understand you point on Miami, but as I have said before, IMO Miami simply can't play with Florida at the point of attack.  There is also a huge discrepancy in defenses.

Florida's offense will be fine.  As expected, they showed nothing offensively against Toledo.

I have looked at most of the games people ask me about.  Heck, I should have played my opinions last week.  If you go back and read last week's thread, I think I hit about 80% of those.  It was definitely a much higher percent than the games I actually played.


 
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Posted: #164
Miami wins straight up!
 
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Posted: #165
Hey Jimmy, appreciate your picks and analyses. Will you add more games to your card?
 
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Posted: #166
Quote Originally Posted by blowoutgm:

Jimmy-

I think the total for the LSU game is about 10-12 pts too high- the only concern i have is Miles might let the offense go all out for the whole game with the new off cord - defense might give up a little but i see a 38-13 type game- the under may be a half unit degen play for me- i will be at the game to see it first hand-heck I just might take a stab at wake tonight! 

Good luck! 

I think LSU will hit 35 themselves in first half.   I see a 56-17 bloodbath
 
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Posted: #167
Quote Originally Posted by themog:

Jimmy, Aggie Homer here so just wanna give you my perspective.  I agree that Bama will shred the Aggie Defense.  No doubt.  But the Aggie offense will shred Bama's D.  Our offense is much better than last year IMO.  Bama may easily cover but they will have to score 50+ to do so


Thanks for your post Mog.  It certainly appreciate you posting an opposing view, even though I disagree with it.

Texas A&M has a fantastic offense, and Manziel is a force to be reckoned with, no question about that.  You might, however, not be giving Alabama's defense enough credit.

Texas A&M will have some new wrinkles for Alabama, but Alabama's defense will be very well prepared for anything Texas A&M throws at them.  In my honest opinion, I think the high water mark for A&M in this game is 21 points.  Conversely, I think Alabama will easily get into the 40s.  In fact I think they'll push the 50-point mark in this game.  I think the margin of victory will be about 4 touchdowns.


 
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Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by Red_Soxxxxxxxx:

We are destroying this thread with this debate. If you want, you can do a different thread but this is my last post on this. This is Jimmy's thread.


No actually not because Florida is one of my plays.  I think it's a good healthy debate.


 
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Posted: #169
Billy- 

That could very well be the case- i think it will be interesting to see if LSU gets ip early if they just go vanilla and run clock winning 35-10 as they have done with many inferior teams or if they keep running this new offense- I hate betting any aspect of an lsu game when i am at the game- more than likely i will not play anything on it and just go have fun and gamble on most of the other games!! Good luck!
 
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Posted: #170
Florida-Miami under is one of my larger plays this weekend.

Good Luck
 
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Posted: #171
Quote Originally Posted by Brinksta:

hard to trust tulsa after they screwed us the first week


Believe me, I understand how you feel, but I absolutely love Tulsa here.  Tulsa played a very tough road game against a very stout defense, and clearly did not play well offensively.  Now they've had extra time to regroup for a home opener against an atrocious football team.  Colorado State, on the other hand, is working on a short week.

Had Tulsa not sh*t the bead last week, I'm pretty confident that this line would be at least two touchdowns.  I think the books are giving us a great opportunity to buy low in a very good situational play.  I know hitting "submit" will be difficult to do based on what you saw last Thursday night, but I think you'll be rewarded if you do.


 
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Posted: #172
Also jimmy think this weekend you will see what I'm saying about Michigan!! They win by 14!
 
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Posted: #173
Quote Originally Posted by HammersSpreads:



I'll have a write up of Tulsa a little bit in my thread that I post later.  But the short way of saying it is: Tulsa has a habit of coming out flat & ugly in week 1 (as I stated last week when I still bet them), & in week 2 when they typically have their home opener, they come out and DEMOLISH their opponent.  I'd be very confident that tulsa wins by 2 TD's at the least.  I could continue & will in my thread, but keep in mind that Tulsa could have easily been up 13-6 at the half last weekend at BG.


  I could not agree more.  Thanks for your contribution to the thread Hammer.




 
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Posted: #174
Jimmy: I don't know which looks better ur Girl or the Beer
 
 
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Posted: #175
Quote Originally Posted by markpa:

I mean honestly... s.carolina  ml and line is a loss  so that's 0-2 lock stock and barrel... if wake doesn't come in and since Thursdays nights dog hit looks like ur behind the 8ball.. .. wow hope u study next week, cause this is disgracefull man


I hate to lose, but I think I can afford a 1.1 unit loss after being up about 35 after week one.  I do appreciate your concern over my account balance though.


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