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Games Im betting NCAAF 10/12.....

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Legend
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Posted: #1
Bad Saturday last week, won last night, hope to keep that going....
 
In no particular order...  With current Pinnacle lines:
 
1.  Virginia +6.5
2.  Indiana +5
3.  Illinois -11.5         (2 units)
4.  Mich St -1           (2 units)
5.  Oklahoma -6.5     (2 units)
6.  Kentucky +3
7.  W Mich +1
8.  Miss St +2.5        (2 units and ML)
9.  Temple +7.5
10.  NM St +20
11.  NM +23.5           (2 units)
12.  Akron +1
13.  Tulane +4           (2 units)
 
Big card....
 
GL all
 
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
MVP
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Posted: #2
goood luck a lot of games
 
Rookie
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Posted: #3
I like the Miss St and Kentucky picks...I would be weary of Mich st however. Line seems pretty fishy if you ask me. Good Luck this weekend!
 
Captain
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Posted: #4
Great call last night van
 
Nice looking card there...  Ill be on most of them.
 
 
GL
 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #5
Hey Van, good luck this week.

I have Miss St. +3 as I am sure you do as well.

How does the ultimate penny pincher feel about that half point though if you do have just +2.5?

Is it worth the extra juice to buy to +3? The data I've run suggests it has a slightly positive EV to buy rather than leave the hook there, but was wondering if you had any other info?
 
Legend
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by GAM:

Hey Van, good luck this week.

I have Miss St. +3 as I am sure you do as well.

How does the ultimate penny pincher feel about that half point though if you do have just +2.5?

Is it worth the extra juice to buy to +3? The data I've run suggests it has a slightly positive EV to buy rather than leave the hook there, but was wondering if you had any other info?

I do have some at +3, but wasnt able to get enough down so I do have half at +2.5 +100.

I have my line at MSU -3, so anything on the + side for MSU is great.  +3 is certainly better than +2.5, but I do not suggest buying the half point.  I never do that, unless I can get some kind of bargain, and in this case that means buying that half point for 13 cents or less.

GL

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Captain
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Posted: #7
Thanks Van. I wasn't asking in this particular case, just in general the theory of buying half points at the most key of numbers, 3.

I believe at $0.14 to buy the EV is even, and the standard Bookmaker buy of $0.10 is positive. Pinny I know (when I used to have them ) would make you pay for those points charing up to 17 cents in some cases.

Thanks for the info.
 
Legend
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by GAM:

Thanks Van. I wasn't asking in this particular case, just in general the theory of buying half points at the most key of numbers, 3.

I believe at $0.14 to buy the EV is even, and the standard Bookmaker buy of $0.10 is positive. Pinny I know (when I used to have them ) would make you pay for those points charing up to 17 cents in some cases.

Thanks for the info.

Yeah, NFL the 3 is more important than college - but yes pinnacle will get up to 20 cents to buy up to 3, which I wouldnt do, but at 10 cents - it makes sense.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #9
like the card van, gl this week
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #10
i'll be with ya on MSU.

...hate to see you on the Sooners though

good luck van
 
Captain
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Posted: #11
 
Captain
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Posted: #12
i was actually looking UTEP.  Tulane's top WR williams is out and the announcers last game were saying that the QB Kevin Moore looked like his hand was injured on a sack.  But I can understand your thinking that the line is asn overreaction to the Army loss.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by xxgambler:

i was actually looking UTEP.  Tulane's top WR williams is out and the announcers last game were saying that the QB Kevin Moore looked like his hand was injured on a sack.  But I can understand your thinking that the line is asn overreaction to the Army loss.

 

Utep is a great bet this week

 

sorry to hijak your thread van. card looks good besides tulane and akron. GL

 
Legend
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by bmore7:

 

Utep is a great bet this week

 

sorry to hijak your thread van. card looks good besides tulane and akron. GL

Dont apologize, appreciate the input and discussion.

There are 2 sides to every story - especially in picking football games....

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #15
Damn. . .  You've got 13 plays this week, and I haven't found but 4 yet so far.
 
I can't seem to find shit on this card, but going to look a lot harder tonight.
 
GL this weekend van, hope you nail it like last week
Bagel Sandwiches Suck
 
Legend
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Posted: #16
Just noticed you said you had a bad Saturday last week, I thought you kicked ass. . .  maybe I got the weeks mixed up.
 
Eiither way, GL to you
Bagel Sandwiches Suck
 
Captain
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Posted: #17
BOL Van
 
Veteran
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Posted: #18
Van, no disrespect, but I usually like to see you on opposite sides as me.  This week we have about 4-6 games in common.  Is your capping getting better or is mine degrading?

  just kidding bro  GL this weekend!
 
Banned
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Posted: #19
Van- Like the card.  Miss st and Oklahoma look good to me.  Like Miss st ML, on the other side of Kentucky game.  I think South Carolina will win by 10+ points in that game. GL this week
 
Veteran
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Posted: #20
like your plays


 
Veteran
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Posted: #21
what does the (2 units) mean? Thought you flat bet?

GL
 
Legend
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Posted: #22
G8r - 2 weeks ago great, last week terrible.... 
 
JWK -
 
Wendy - no problems - hope we win this week 
 
Dyounger - yeah, KY is one of my weakest games, made the cut by .3%, but still qualifies as a play....
 
GL all
 
(where is my stalker this week?)
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by ZonaCats:

what does the (2 units) mean? Thought you flat bet?

GL

I do flat bet, but go up to 2 units or 3 units in cases where I feel I have a greater percentage of winning.

I guess in the strictest of terms it is not flat betting, but about 2/3rds of my games are 1 unit, another 30% 2 units, and about 3% 3 units.

 

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #24
Solid card, Sandwich game for Vandy.  I think Miss State gets the upset.  GL this weekend
 
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #25
Vanzack-
  Here is my situation I have $1,000 to play with and want to win $1,000 this week.  How do you suggest I bet it.  Lets say I followed your picks for college would I risk $100 on every unit?  Was going to throw it all on Oklahoma but I would rather have some money management.  This is free money so I have a problem losing it.
 
Thanks
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