Here are my picks for Week #2....analysis to follow. Which ones do you like?
CINCINNATI -2.5 Pittsburgh
Temple +13 NAVY
Houston +27 OKLAHOMA
I don't love Houston's performance last week, however Oklahoma's point total benefitted tremendously from Temple's 6 (count 'em 6) turnovers.
I don't love Houston's performance last week, however Oklahoma's point total benefitted tremendously from Temple's 6 (count 'em 6) turnovers.
@iamhuge
How many turnovers did Houston have against UNLV? 3 TWO PICKS AND A FUMBLE, Sooner D gonna eat him up
Temple is the worst or second worst program this year in D1 -13 for Navy is a gift
I have Cincy and Pitt as pk em so the +2.5 looks like $ in a 1 point win either side
@iamhuge
How many turnovers did Houston have against UNLV? 3 TWO PICKS AND A FUMBLE, Sooner D gonna eat him up
Temple is the worst or second worst program this year in D1 -13 for Navy is a gift
I have Cincy and Pitt as pk em so the +2.5 looks like $ in a 1 point win either side
CINCINNATI -2.5 Pittsburgh
Last week, the Bearcats played an above average FCS Towson Tiger squad and took them down by the score of 38 – 20, putting up 658 yards of offense despite 3 fumbles lost. Based on how easily they moved the football, if those fumbles had bounced into their own hands, it’s likely that the Bearcats would have posted 50 points and won this game by 30 points. QB Sorsby (transfer from Indiana) threw for 383 yards and two touchdowns while adding two scores on the ground. They were able to run the ball at will, netting 8.6 yards per carry for 275 yards. It’s likely they will find success on the ground, playing at home against Pitt.
Last week, Pitt had similar success against Kent State. Ironically, Sagarin has Kent State and Towson ranked exactly the same, even though Kent State is an FBS team. While Pitt ran away with the game at the end, they were struggling with only a 28-21 lead in the 3 quarter. The Golden Flashes had an impressive 11 play 75 yard drive that consumed 5:34 on the clock to open the 2 half. Giving up 24 points to an awful awful Kent State offense makes me think that the Panther defense is not as tough as they were last season.
One of these two teams will come away from the game at 2-0. It will likely be a close game. Pitt lost to Cincinnati last season at Acrisure Stadium, a 27-21 defeat in Week 2. In Saturday’s game, both teams will likely end up scoring in the 30’s. At the end of the day, it looks like Cincinnati’s offense is a bit better than Pittsburghs and that, combined with Bearcat home cooking is going to be a HUGE factor and will enable them to win this game and cover the spread.
CINCINNATI -2.5 Pittsburgh
Last week, the Bearcats played an above average FCS Towson Tiger squad and took them down by the score of 38 – 20, putting up 658 yards of offense despite 3 fumbles lost. Based on how easily they moved the football, if those fumbles had bounced into their own hands, it’s likely that the Bearcats would have posted 50 points and won this game by 30 points. QB Sorsby (transfer from Indiana) threw for 383 yards and two touchdowns while adding two scores on the ground. They were able to run the ball at will, netting 8.6 yards per carry for 275 yards. It’s likely they will find success on the ground, playing at home against Pitt.
Last week, Pitt had similar success against Kent State. Ironically, Sagarin has Kent State and Towson ranked exactly the same, even though Kent State is an FBS team. While Pitt ran away with the game at the end, they were struggling with only a 28-21 lead in the 3 quarter. The Golden Flashes had an impressive 11 play 75 yard drive that consumed 5:34 on the clock to open the 2 half. Giving up 24 points to an awful awful Kent State offense makes me think that the Panther defense is not as tough as they were last season.
One of these two teams will come away from the game at 2-0. It will likely be a close game. Pitt lost to Cincinnati last season at Acrisure Stadium, a 27-21 defeat in Week 2. In Saturday’s game, both teams will likely end up scoring in the 30’s. At the end of the day, it looks like Cincinnati’s offense is a bit better than Pittsburghs and that, combined with Bearcat home cooking is going to be a HUGE factor and will enable them to win this game and cover the spread.
Temple +13 NAVY
How insane is this to be betting on the Temple Owls in week 2 after they literally got an ass whipping last week against Oklahoma?? Well, the answer is in the math and don’t let the final scores fool you. I’ll start with last season, when Temple beat Navy by the score of 32-18. Temple has better athletes than Navy does. The Sooner victory, and final score, over Temple was very deceiving. The Sooners averaged just 4.1 yards per carry in the first half, and finished the first two quarters going 0-for-7 on third downs. Oklahoma finished 1-for-12 on third down. So Temple’s defense was not nearly as bad as the final score indicated. Temple has put in a 4-3 defense to improve their ability to stop the run, which was a weakness for the team last season. What does Navy try to do on every play? That’s right…they want to run the ball.
Temple had 6 turnovers in the game, including 4 fumbles – all of them turnovers. Since a team usually only gets 12 possessions in a game, the turnovers really cost Temple opportunities to put up points against the Sooners. If you assign 4 point to each turnover, you’re looking at Temple scoring at least 20 points against Oklahoma if they had protected the ball better. Again, Oklahoma didn't do a lot offensively, producing just 378 yards, but capitalized on those turnovers and the eight penalties that the Owls committed. You have to believe that Temple has been emphasizing both ball protection and penalty discipline this week in practice. If they play a clean game, it’s going to be very close.
Turning to Navy, they beat FCS Bucknell by the score of 49-21. Big deal. If you look at the Sagarin ratings which combine FBS and FCS teams, Temple has a ranking of 162 out of the 264 teams while Bucknell is all the way down at 253 as they should be. Bucknell football stinks. Sagarin has Temple rated 18 points better than Bucknell. Navy ran the ball 74% of the time against Bucknell and did get 5 yards per carry, but they won’t do nearly as well against Temple’s run defense which will be much more challenging to Navy with their lateral speed at linebacker and size up front. Bucknell ran the ball on 57% of their plays even though they were way behind much of the game, and still managed 3.4 yards per carry and their total offense on the day was a respectable 337 yards. As a reminder, Bucknell is one of the worst teams in the country. One can expect that Temple will do much better offensively. This is going to be a low scoring game with the clock running and lots of rushing attempts by both sides. If Temple can put up 17 points, there is no way Navy scores more than 30. They averaged only 17.7 points per game last year. It’s just too many points for an inferior athletic team with a pedestrian offense to cover. I think Navy will win a low scoring game, but the back door is way to wide to stop this dog from covering. Taking the Owls. Hoot Hoot.
Temple +13 NAVY
How insane is this to be betting on the Temple Owls in week 2 after they literally got an ass whipping last week against Oklahoma?? Well, the answer is in the math and don’t let the final scores fool you. I’ll start with last season, when Temple beat Navy by the score of 32-18. Temple has better athletes than Navy does. The Sooner victory, and final score, over Temple was very deceiving. The Sooners averaged just 4.1 yards per carry in the first half, and finished the first two quarters going 0-for-7 on third downs. Oklahoma finished 1-for-12 on third down. So Temple’s defense was not nearly as bad as the final score indicated. Temple has put in a 4-3 defense to improve their ability to stop the run, which was a weakness for the team last season. What does Navy try to do on every play? That’s right…they want to run the ball.
Temple had 6 turnovers in the game, including 4 fumbles – all of them turnovers. Since a team usually only gets 12 possessions in a game, the turnovers really cost Temple opportunities to put up points against the Sooners. If you assign 4 point to each turnover, you’re looking at Temple scoring at least 20 points against Oklahoma if they had protected the ball better. Again, Oklahoma didn't do a lot offensively, producing just 378 yards, but capitalized on those turnovers and the eight penalties that the Owls committed. You have to believe that Temple has been emphasizing both ball protection and penalty discipline this week in practice. If they play a clean game, it’s going to be very close.
Turning to Navy, they beat FCS Bucknell by the score of 49-21. Big deal. If you look at the Sagarin ratings which combine FBS and FCS teams, Temple has a ranking of 162 out of the 264 teams while Bucknell is all the way down at 253 as they should be. Bucknell football stinks. Sagarin has Temple rated 18 points better than Bucknell. Navy ran the ball 74% of the time against Bucknell and did get 5 yards per carry, but they won’t do nearly as well against Temple’s run defense which will be much more challenging to Navy with their lateral speed at linebacker and size up front. Bucknell ran the ball on 57% of their plays even though they were way behind much of the game, and still managed 3.4 yards per carry and their total offense on the day was a respectable 337 yards. As a reminder, Bucknell is one of the worst teams in the country. One can expect that Temple will do much better offensively. This is going to be a low scoring game with the clock running and lots of rushing attempts by both sides. If Temple can put up 17 points, there is no way Navy scores more than 30. They averaged only 17.7 points per game last year. It’s just too many points for an inferior athletic team with a pedestrian offense to cover. I think Navy will win a low scoring game, but the back door is way to wide to stop this dog from covering. Taking the Owls. Hoot Hoot.
Houston +27 OKLAHOMA
Before you reach for your favorite sock to pleasure yourself about Joklahoma’s beatdown over Temple last week, one must remember that the Sooners benefited tremendously from the Owls 6 turnovers. The Massey Composite has Houston ranked 94 out of 134 FBS teams – not great. Temple, however, is ranked all the way down at 131. So to assume that Houston will perform at the same level as Temple is folly. Sagarin has Houston as 17 points better than Temple. So right away you have to look at that 27 point spread and go hmmmm.
The Sooners have a tough test next week in Norman against Tulane, so even though it’s likely that they will have Houston well under control by the 3 quarter, I wouldn’t expect them to show too much in the 4 quarter where they will need those 3 possessions to cover the spread.
Last year Cougar High was only 4-8 but if you look at their 8 losses, only one of them was by more than this 27 point spread. This isn’t going to be a body payday bag game for the Sooners. The Big 12 Cougars are going to play hard. They have great athletes and this is a marquee opportunity for each of them to show what they can do against top level competition. The UNLV game was certainly a wake up call for Houston. Despite their poor play on offense in the 27-7 loss, the defense held up fairly well. They gave up only 308 yards of offense to the Rebels and one of the UNLV touchdowns was a pick 6. This version of the Sooners team is showcasing Venable’s defense and they are letting defense take the wheel. Oklahoma has 7 new starters on offense, so they just aren’t the high flying unit that we have seen in the past. Oklahoma finished 1-of-12 on third down against Temple, which is really inexplicable against an overmatched team. Oklahoma ran the ball 55% of the time against Temple last week and they don’t play fast. Jalil Farooq, the Sooners' most experienced pass catcher, broke his foot against Temple and will require surgery. Starting center Branson Hickman, sprained his ankle in the first quarter and missed the rest of Temple game. We won’t see him either. The clock will be running quite a bit vs. the Cougars which will limit their possessions and opportunities to cover these 27 points.
Houston +27 OKLAHOMA
Before you reach for your favorite sock to pleasure yourself about Joklahoma’s beatdown over Temple last week, one must remember that the Sooners benefited tremendously from the Owls 6 turnovers. The Massey Composite has Houston ranked 94 out of 134 FBS teams – not great. Temple, however, is ranked all the way down at 131. So to assume that Houston will perform at the same level as Temple is folly. Sagarin has Houston as 17 points better than Temple. So right away you have to look at that 27 point spread and go hmmmm.
The Sooners have a tough test next week in Norman against Tulane, so even though it’s likely that they will have Houston well under control by the 3 quarter, I wouldn’t expect them to show too much in the 4 quarter where they will need those 3 possessions to cover the spread.
Last year Cougar High was only 4-8 but if you look at their 8 losses, only one of them was by more than this 27 point spread. This isn’t going to be a body payday bag game for the Sooners. The Big 12 Cougars are going to play hard. They have great athletes and this is a marquee opportunity for each of them to show what they can do against top level competition. The UNLV game was certainly a wake up call for Houston. Despite their poor play on offense in the 27-7 loss, the defense held up fairly well. They gave up only 308 yards of offense to the Rebels and one of the UNLV touchdowns was a pick 6. This version of the Sooners team is showcasing Venable’s defense and they are letting defense take the wheel. Oklahoma has 7 new starters on offense, so they just aren’t the high flying unit that we have seen in the past. Oklahoma finished 1-of-12 on third down against Temple, which is really inexplicable against an overmatched team. Oklahoma ran the ball 55% of the time against Temple last week and they don’t play fast. Jalil Farooq, the Sooners' most experienced pass catcher, broke his foot against Temple and will require surgery. Starting center Branson Hickman, sprained his ankle in the first quarter and missed the rest of Temple game. We won’t see him either. The clock will be running quite a bit vs. the Cougars which will limit their possessions and opportunities to cover these 27 points.
Cougar Coach Willie Fritz certainly will have high expectations for a bounce back from the Cougars and for sure the Sooners will not be taking Houston seriously based on the UNLV game film. While penalties on offense and special teams weighed down the Cougars' performance, there were some silver linings on the defensive side of the ball. "We were more assignment-sound." Remember, Under Fritz in 2021, the Tulane Green Wave nearly toppled Oklahoma as a 31 1/2-point underdog, losing 40-35 to the second-ranked Sooners. Donovan Smith, the Houston QB, is very experienced and won’t be rattled by the magnitude of playing in Norman…he will view it as an opportunity and a challenge. He won’t back down. At the end of the day, this is a point spread grab. For the whole Houston squad, when your backs are against the wall, and everyone telling you how bad you are, you come out swinging with nothing to lose. We have seen this happen over and over again. I think the public is overestimating how good Oklahoma’s offense is and certainly underestimating Houston as a team based on the fart that had last week. The first half will go quickly with Oklahoma comfortably ahead. Houston will play with pride in the second half and not allow the Sooners to increase their lead in the 3 quarter and the Sooners coast and run out the clock in the 4 quarter. There just won’t be enough time for the cover. Taking the 27 points and Cougar High.
Cougar Coach Willie Fritz certainly will have high expectations for a bounce back from the Cougars and for sure the Sooners will not be taking Houston seriously based on the UNLV game film. While penalties on offense and special teams weighed down the Cougars' performance, there were some silver linings on the defensive side of the ball. "We were more assignment-sound." Remember, Under Fritz in 2021, the Tulane Green Wave nearly toppled Oklahoma as a 31 1/2-point underdog, losing 40-35 to the second-ranked Sooners. Donovan Smith, the Houston QB, is very experienced and won’t be rattled by the magnitude of playing in Norman…he will view it as an opportunity and a challenge. He won’t back down. At the end of the day, this is a point spread grab. For the whole Houston squad, when your backs are against the wall, and everyone telling you how bad you are, you come out swinging with nothing to lose. We have seen this happen over and over again. I think the public is overestimating how good Oklahoma’s offense is and certainly underestimating Houston as a team based on the fart that had last week. The first half will go quickly with Oklahoma comfortably ahead. Houston will play with pride in the second half and not allow the Sooners to increase their lead in the 3 quarter and the Sooners coast and run out the clock in the 4 quarter. There just won’t be enough time for the cover. Taking the 27 points and Cougar High.
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