The Tulane Green Wave is 5-4 this season. If you look at their 4 losses, two of them were to UCF and SMU. Tulsa beat both of these teams. Did you ever wonder why they call Tulsa the Golden Hurricanes? There are no hurricanes in Tulsa. Tulsa is home and their defense loves to hit you. Laying the points on the Golden Hurricanes.
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TULSA – 4.5 tulane
The Tulane Green Wave is 5-4 this season. If you look at their 4 losses, two of them were to UCF and SMU. Tulsa beat both of these teams. Did you ever wonder why they call Tulsa the Golden Hurricanes? There are no hurricanes in Tulsa. Tulsa is home and their defense loves to hit you. Laying the points on the Golden Hurricanes.
At 1-7, the ‘Cuse certainly has been the ACC punching bag this year. But getting 18.5 points from a 2-5 Louisville team reeks of value. Of the 7 teams that have beaten Syracuse this year, Louisville is the worst of the bunch in comparison. If you throw out the Clemson and UNC losses (you can’t compare these teams to Louisville, because they are far superior) of the 5 remaining defeats, Syracuse has covered the 18.5 points in 4 of those 5 contests.
Louisville is averaging only 27.9 points per game. That doesn’t give them a lot of room to cover this spread. In their 2 victories, they did manage to cover the spread against FSU but failed to cover against Western Kentucky.
With NC State and Notre Dame remaining on their schedule, this might be the last chance for the Orange to secure a “W” this season, so I am expecting an inspired effort. Taking the boatload of points and going with the ‘Cuse.
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Syracuse +18.5 LOUISVILLE
At 1-7, the ‘Cuse certainly has been the ACC punching bag this year. But getting 18.5 points from a 2-5 Louisville team reeks of value. Of the 7 teams that have beaten Syracuse this year, Louisville is the worst of the bunch in comparison. If you throw out the Clemson and UNC losses (you can’t compare these teams to Louisville, because they are far superior) of the 5 remaining defeats, Syracuse has covered the 18.5 points in 4 of those 5 contests.
Louisville is averaging only 27.9 points per game. That doesn’t give them a lot of room to cover this spread. In their 2 victories, they did manage to cover the spread against FSU but failed to cover against Western Kentucky.
With NC State and Notre Dame remaining on their schedule, this might be the last chance for the Orange to secure a “W” this season, so I am expecting an inspired effort. Taking the boatload of points and going with the ‘Cuse.
At first glance, this game looks like a horrendous mismatch. It's true that FAU has a very good defense and that they will also win this game easily. However, when you look at the fact that FAU is averaging only 20 points per game on offense, it's kind of hard to scratch out this 30.5 point cover. I agree, UMASS is terrible, but they did hold Georgia Southern to 41 points and Georgia Southern's offense is quite a bit better than FAU's. UMASS also managed to score 10 points against Marshall, and Marshall's defense is better than FAU's defense.
The reason why the Minutemen are going to cover this spread is that FAU hates to throw the football. They only throw when they have to, and against UMASS, they aren't going to have to. They only throw 32% of the time which means that the clock will be going tick tick tick tick and their 10 play drives will mean that they will be limiting their own number of possessions, which will limit the number of points they score. UMASS was able to force Marshall to punt the ball twice and, on offense, they found some success through the air (17/26 with 1 TD). I think we'll see their offense play with a little more confidence this week.
If UMASS finds a way to score 10 points, it makes it a very difficult cover for the Owls. Taking the points and the Minutemen.
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Massachusetts +30.5 FLORIDA ATLANTIC
At first glance, this game looks like a horrendous mismatch. It's true that FAU has a very good defense and that they will also win this game easily. However, when you look at the fact that FAU is averaging only 20 points per game on offense, it's kind of hard to scratch out this 30.5 point cover. I agree, UMASS is terrible, but they did hold Georgia Southern to 41 points and Georgia Southern's offense is quite a bit better than FAU's. UMASS also managed to score 10 points against Marshall, and Marshall's defense is better than FAU's defense.
The reason why the Minutemen are going to cover this spread is that FAU hates to throw the football. They only throw when they have to, and against UMASS, they aren't going to have to. They only throw 32% of the time which means that the clock will be going tick tick tick tick and their 10 play drives will mean that they will be limiting their own number of possessions, which will limit the number of points they score. UMASS was able to force Marshall to punt the ball twice and, on offense, they found some success through the air (17/26 with 1 TD). I think we'll see their offense play with a little more confidence this week.
If UMASS finds a way to score 10 points, it makes it a very difficult cover for the Owls. Taking the points and the Minutemen.
James Franklin thought he would be an NFL Head Coach. Right now Penn State is 0-4 and ranked #55 on the Massey Composite. Iowa is 2-2, ranked 19 and coming off two consecutive beatdowns on Minnesota (35-7) and Michigan State (49-7). Their defense is giving up 14.8 points per game. Penn State is due you say? Due for what? Another public urination?
Iowa’s losses are also not unimpressive. They dropped a 21-20 heartbreaker to an unbeaten Northwestern team and lost to a very good Purdue team 24-20 on account of 2 fumbles. None of Penn State’s losses are impressive. Losing to Nebraska and Maryland is somewhat inexplicable. Their play at quarterback has been flat out bad. The Hawkeye defense isn’t going to feel sorry for anyone. Penn State’s reputation isn’t going to be enough to win this game. I will go with what I have seen. Hawkeyes win the game and cover on the road.
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Iowa -2.5 PENN STATE
James Franklin thought he would be an NFL Head Coach. Right now Penn State is 0-4 and ranked #55 on the Massey Composite. Iowa is 2-2, ranked 19 and coming off two consecutive beatdowns on Minnesota (35-7) and Michigan State (49-7). Their defense is giving up 14.8 points per game. Penn State is due you say? Due for what? Another public urination?
Iowa’s losses are also not unimpressive. They dropped a 21-20 heartbreaker to an unbeaten Northwestern team and lost to a very good Purdue team 24-20 on account of 2 fumbles. None of Penn State’s losses are impressive. Losing to Nebraska and Maryland is somewhat inexplicable. Their play at quarterback has been flat out bad. The Hawkeye defense isn’t going to feel sorry for anyone. Penn State’s reputation isn’t going to be enough to win this game. I will go with what I have seen. Hawkeyes win the game and cover on the road.
Agree on the Deacs. The line opened at 4 went up to 6 then down to 4.5. I got it at 6. Duke will be more competitive and Cutcliff is a good coach but so is the WF coach, which will make that part of the cap a wash. WF -6 is my top play this week. GL!
LonghornHoosier
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Agree on the Deacs. The line opened at 4 went up to 6 then down to 4.5. I got it at 6. Duke will be more competitive and Cutcliff is a good coach but so is the WF coach, which will make that part of the cap a wash. WF -6 is my top play this week. GL!
It turns out the Georgia vs. Auburn game was a complete aberration. Georgia is a train wreck. Their QB situation is worse. Bulldog quarterbacks have thrown for nine touchdowns and nine interceptions. That’s not a good offense when you need to win by 25 points. Kirby Smart is should legally change his name to Kirby Dumb. Georgia beat Tennessee by 23. They beat Arkansas by 27 and they beat Kentucky by 11. If they go with an injured Bennett, they will struggle to put up points. If they go with the freshman, they will turn the ball over.
Mississippi State’s offense has been misfiring in recent weeks, but the Georgia defense is losing confidence in its own offense, and that takes a lot of fire out of their play. They certainly didn’t play with any kind of pride against Florida. If Air Raid makes a re-appearance, they’ll score 24 points against Georgia. There’s no way Georgia will score 49. Taking the points on the road and riding the Pirate.
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Mississippi state +24.5 GEORGIA
It turns out the Georgia vs. Auburn game was a complete aberration. Georgia is a train wreck. Their QB situation is worse. Bulldog quarterbacks have thrown for nine touchdowns and nine interceptions. That’s not a good offense when you need to win by 25 points. Kirby Smart is should legally change his name to Kirby Dumb. Georgia beat Tennessee by 23. They beat Arkansas by 27 and they beat Kentucky by 11. If they go with an injured Bennett, they will struggle to put up points. If they go with the freshman, they will turn the ball over.
Mississippi State’s offense has been misfiring in recent weeks, but the Georgia defense is losing confidence in its own offense, and that takes a lot of fire out of their play. They certainly didn’t play with any kind of pride against Florida. If Air Raid makes a re-appearance, they’ll score 24 points against Georgia. There’s no way Georgia will score 49. Taking the points on the road and riding the Pirate.
With 3 common opponents, this boils down to simple math.
Coastal beat Campbell, 43-21. App State beat Campbell 52-21.
Coastal beat Arkansas State 52-23. App State beat Arkansas State 45-17.
Coastal beat Georgia State 51-0. App State beat Georgia State 17-13.
By my math:
App State is 9 points better than Coastal based on the Campbell game.
Coastal is 1 point better than App State based on the Arkansas State game.
Coastal is 47 points better than App State based on the Georgia State game.
Obviously this is two very good, well coached teams with the math leaning towards Coastal Carolina. Coastal Carolina beat the toughest team it played (Louisiana Lafayette) while Appalachian State lost to the toughest team it played (Marshall). I don’t think the Mountaineers have looked quite as good as people think they are, as they are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games. I don’t see a reason to bet against Coastal Carolina, so I won’t. Going with the Chants this week to stay undefeated and cover.
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COASTAL CAROLINA -3.5 appalachian state
With 3 common opponents, this boils down to simple math.
Coastal beat Campbell, 43-21. App State beat Campbell 52-21.
Coastal beat Arkansas State 52-23. App State beat Arkansas State 45-17.
Coastal beat Georgia State 51-0. App State beat Georgia State 17-13.
By my math:
App State is 9 points better than Coastal based on the Campbell game.
Coastal is 1 point better than App State based on the Arkansas State game.
Coastal is 47 points better than App State based on the Georgia State game.
Obviously this is two very good, well coached teams with the math leaning towards Coastal Carolina. Coastal Carolina beat the toughest team it played (Louisiana Lafayette) while Appalachian State lost to the toughest team it played (Marshall). I don’t think the Mountaineers have looked quite as good as people think they are, as they are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games. I don’t see a reason to bet against Coastal Carolina, so I won’t. Going with the Chants this week to stay undefeated and cover.
We haven’t seen Utah yet this season, but last year they were 11-2 and were very much in the conversation for the college football playoff. Much to the chagrin of the Trojans, we have seen them this year. They slinked by a mediocre Arizona State with a 28-27 victory. The following week, they barely beat a very bad Arizona team. Their defense is like swiss cheese against the run, giving up over 200 yards per game. Last year, Utah’s defense was really really good, yielding on 13.2 points per game. They have those square bear Tonga/Samoan linemen that are tough to move. I’d rather go with the team I think is good instead of the team I know is bad, especially if I am getting points. Taking the Utes!
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UTAH +2.5 usc
We haven’t seen Utah yet this season, but last year they were 11-2 and were very much in the conversation for the college football playoff. Much to the chagrin of the Trojans, we have seen them this year. They slinked by a mediocre Arizona State with a 28-27 victory. The following week, they barely beat a very bad Arizona team. Their defense is like swiss cheese against the run, giving up over 200 yards per game. Last year, Utah’s defense was really really good, yielding on 13.2 points per game. They have those square bear Tonga/Samoan linemen that are tough to move. I’d rather go with the team I think is good instead of the team I know is bad, especially if I am getting points. Taking the Utes!
UTAH +2.5 usc We haven’t seen Utah yet this season, but last year they were 11-2 and were very much in the conversation for the college football playoff. Much to the chagrin of the Trojans, we have seen them this year. They slinked by a mediocre Arizona State with a 28-27 victory. The following week, they barely beat a very bad Arizona team. Their defense is like swiss cheese against the run, giving up over 200 yards per game. Last year, Utah’s defense was really really good, yielding on 13.2 points per game. They have those square bear Tonga/Samoan linemen that are tough to move. I’d rather go with the team I think is good instead of the team I know is bad, especially if I am getting points. Taking the Utes!
I can't believe how bad USC is this year. The coaches are calling bonehead plays. For the first time ever I want Clay Helton fired. The players have no energy.
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Quote Originally Posted by iamhuge:
UTAH +2.5 usc We haven’t seen Utah yet this season, but last year they were 11-2 and were very much in the conversation for the college football playoff. Much to the chagrin of the Trojans, we have seen them this year. They slinked by a mediocre Arizona State with a 28-27 victory. The following week, they barely beat a very bad Arizona team. Their defense is like swiss cheese against the run, giving up over 200 yards per game. Last year, Utah’s defense was really really good, yielding on 13.2 points per game. They have those square bear Tonga/Samoan linemen that are tough to move. I’d rather go with the team I think is good instead of the team I know is bad, especially if I am getting points. Taking the Utes!
I can't believe how bad USC is this year. The coaches are calling bonehead plays. For the first time ever I want Clay Helton fired. The players have no energy.
The only common opponent that these teams have is Louisiana Tech, who UTSA barely beat and who Southern Siss barely lost to. Based on that, one can assume these teams are fairly evenly matched. But it’s more important to look at the overall body of work, when common opponent data is limited. Southern Siss is 2-6 and UTSA is 5-4. Southern Siss is ranked 120 out of 127 teams on the Massey Composite and their play has been incredibly inconsistent. UTSA has played a much tougher schedule (including Army, UAB, FAU and BYU) and still have a winning record.
Southern Miss offense seems to be sputtering. Last week, they scored only 7 points against a WKU team who allowed FCS Chattanooga to score 10 points on them. They are only averaging 12 points per game in their last 3 contests, with the other two games being against Rice and North Alabama. Meanwhile, UTSA pounced on UTEP for 52 points last week – that’s the 2 most points scored this season on UTEP, with the only team scoring more being Texas. With the Roadrunner offense starting to click and the Southern Siss offense stuck in the mud, there’s no problem laying the points here and taking the favorite UTSA.
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Utsa -7.5 SOUTHERN MISS
The only common opponent that these teams have is Louisiana Tech, who UTSA barely beat and who Southern Siss barely lost to. Based on that, one can assume these teams are fairly evenly matched. But it’s more important to look at the overall body of work, when common opponent data is limited. Southern Siss is 2-6 and UTSA is 5-4. Southern Siss is ranked 120 out of 127 teams on the Massey Composite and their play has been incredibly inconsistent. UTSA has played a much tougher schedule (including Army, UAB, FAU and BYU) and still have a winning record.
Southern Miss offense seems to be sputtering. Last week, they scored only 7 points against a WKU team who allowed FCS Chattanooga to score 10 points on them. They are only averaging 12 points per game in their last 3 contests, with the other two games being against Rice and North Alabama. Meanwhile, UTSA pounced on UTEP for 52 points last week – that’s the 2 most points scored this season on UTEP, with the only team scoring more being Texas. With the Roadrunner offense starting to click and the Southern Siss offense stuck in the mud, there’s no problem laying the points here and taking the favorite UTSA.
Even though the Aztecs lost a game that they had no business losing to San Jose State (3 turnovers), they still are playing at a very high level at 3-1. In their 3 victories, they have held their opponents to 10 or fewer points. Most notable is last week’s 34-10 conquest of Hawaii. Nevada is undefeated, but their buffet of victories is infested with low ranked teams (#114, #116 and #118 out of 127 teams). While the Wolfpack is averaging 33.8 points scored and is only allowing 20.5 points per game (14 point differential), San Diego State actually has an average 18 point differential over a tougher slate of games. Both teams smashed Utah State, but San Diego State’s 34-6 victory was a bit more impressive than Nevada’s 37-19 win over the Rebels.
There is no secret about what the Aztecs are going to try to do on offense. Nevada is good, but not great, against the run. SDSU is averaging 280.3 yards rushing per game while allowing just 91.3 yards per game on the ground. This, of course, helps their defensive effort where they lead the country with 43.1% three and outs.
Nevada definitely has the superior pass attack, but give me old school any day. Loving SDSU to smash mouth to a victory and a cover.
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Sd state -2.5 NEVADA
Even though the Aztecs lost a game that they had no business losing to San Jose State (3 turnovers), they still are playing at a very high level at 3-1. In their 3 victories, they have held their opponents to 10 or fewer points. Most notable is last week’s 34-10 conquest of Hawaii. Nevada is undefeated, but their buffet of victories is infested with low ranked teams (#114, #116 and #118 out of 127 teams). While the Wolfpack is averaging 33.8 points scored and is only allowing 20.5 points per game (14 point differential), San Diego State actually has an average 18 point differential over a tougher slate of games. Both teams smashed Utah State, but San Diego State’s 34-6 victory was a bit more impressive than Nevada’s 37-19 win over the Rebels.
There is no secret about what the Aztecs are going to try to do on offense. Nevada is good, but not great, against the run. SDSU is averaging 280.3 yards rushing per game while allowing just 91.3 yards per game on the ground. This, of course, helps their defensive effort where they lead the country with 43.1% three and outs.
Nevada definitely has the superior pass attack, but give me old school any day. Loving SDSU to smash mouth to a victory and a cover.
The Florida Gators are starting to write their own script about how they are going to dominate the SEC with their offense. Not since the days of the old ball coach and Danny Wuerffel have the skies been lit up with passing in the swamp. Kyle Trask is just getting better every week and the Vanderbilt defense is going to be completely hapless as the Gators rack up TD passes in this contest. Now the guy in the armor for Florida is their less than tenacious defense, which is giving up 30 points per game but don’t expect anything like that from the Commodores.
Vanderbilt is winless, but it’s not for lack of effort. They just completely suck on offense, averaging only 16.5 points per game. They only scored 7 points against LSU and 7 points against South Carolina, losing to the Gamecocks by 34 points. Florida beat South Carolina by 14. Vandy lost to Mississippi by 33 points. Florida beat Ole Miss by 16. The disparity in these two teams is more than evident. Florida will be up by 28 at halftime, which will make Vandy predictable on offense and less effective. As the remaining number of games starts to wane, Florida needs to make a statement and score more than 60 this week. Blue! Orange! Go Gators.
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Florida -30.5 VANDERBILT
The Florida Gators are starting to write their own script about how they are going to dominate the SEC with their offense. Not since the days of the old ball coach and Danny Wuerffel have the skies been lit up with passing in the swamp. Kyle Trask is just getting better every week and the Vanderbilt defense is going to be completely hapless as the Gators rack up TD passes in this contest. Now the guy in the armor for Florida is their less than tenacious defense, which is giving up 30 points per game but don’t expect anything like that from the Commodores.
Vanderbilt is winless, but it’s not for lack of effort. They just completely suck on offense, averaging only 16.5 points per game. They only scored 7 points against LSU and 7 points against South Carolina, losing to the Gamecocks by 34 points. Florida beat South Carolina by 14. Vandy lost to Mississippi by 33 points. Florida beat Ole Miss by 16. The disparity in these two teams is more than evident. Florida will be up by 28 at halftime, which will make Vandy predictable on offense and less effective. As the remaining number of games starts to wane, Florida needs to make a statement and score more than 60 this week. Blue! Orange! Go Gators.
It’s Bedlam! Spencer Rattler is once again going to choke in the big game. The Cowboys have a much better defense and 9.5 is a LOT of points in a rivalry game. With 3 common quality opponents, this boils down to simple math. Both teams played Kansas, but it makes no sense to evaluate how they play against a pinata.
Sooners lost to K State, 35-38. Cowboys beat K State 20-18.
Sooners lost to Iowa State , 30-37. Cowboys beat Iowa State 24-21.
Sooners beat Texas, 53-45 (OT). Cowboys lost to Texas 34-41 (OT).
By my math:
Cowboys are 5 points better than the Sooners based on the K State game.
Cowboys are 10 points better than the Sooners based on the ISU game.
Cowboys and Sooners are equal based on the Texas game (both OT).
So on average, over the 3 games, Oklahoma State is 5 points better than the Sooners, and we’re getting 9.5 points. I see value. I watched both teams play Texas and Oklahoma State drastically outplayed the Longhorns but the same can’t be said for Oklahoma. The Cowboys play a swarming and hard hitting defense that is unique in the Big 12. Oklahoma will not be able to run the football the way that they have in the last few games. The Cowboys have also done a great job on pass defense as only one team has eclipsed 200 yards passing against them. A nicked up Spencer Rattler is ready to get punched in the mouth and he doesn’t protect the football. Now we don’t know the status of Chuba Hubbard, but Ok State had the week off last week.
The Big 12 is officially D E D if Oklahoma wins. So for your conspiracy theorists, expect an Oklahoma State victory. Of course this is total bullshit, but the 9.5 points isn’t. Too bad T Boone Pickens is D E D or otherwise he’d enjoy this Big 12 Championship along with the MAN Mike Gundy. Two turnovers by Oklahoma will make this a Tom Robinson ho ho ho special as the Cowboys win outright, but I’ll take the points anyway.
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Oklahoma State +9.5 OKLAHOMA
It’s Bedlam! Spencer Rattler is once again going to choke in the big game. The Cowboys have a much better defense and 9.5 is a LOT of points in a rivalry game. With 3 common quality opponents, this boils down to simple math. Both teams played Kansas, but it makes no sense to evaluate how they play against a pinata.
Sooners lost to K State, 35-38. Cowboys beat K State 20-18.
Sooners lost to Iowa State , 30-37. Cowboys beat Iowa State 24-21.
Sooners beat Texas, 53-45 (OT). Cowboys lost to Texas 34-41 (OT).
By my math:
Cowboys are 5 points better than the Sooners based on the K State game.
Cowboys are 10 points better than the Sooners based on the ISU game.
Cowboys and Sooners are equal based on the Texas game (both OT).
So on average, over the 3 games, Oklahoma State is 5 points better than the Sooners, and we’re getting 9.5 points. I see value. I watched both teams play Texas and Oklahoma State drastically outplayed the Longhorns but the same can’t be said for Oklahoma. The Cowboys play a swarming and hard hitting defense that is unique in the Big 12. Oklahoma will not be able to run the football the way that they have in the last few games. The Cowboys have also done a great job on pass defense as only one team has eclipsed 200 yards passing against them. A nicked up Spencer Rattler is ready to get punched in the mouth and he doesn’t protect the football. Now we don’t know the status of Chuba Hubbard, but Ok State had the week off last week.
The Big 12 is officially D E D if Oklahoma wins. So for your conspiracy theorists, expect an Oklahoma State victory. Of course this is total bullshit, but the 9.5 points isn’t. Too bad T Boone Pickens is D E D or otherwise he’d enjoy this Big 12 Championship along with the MAN Mike Gundy. Two turnovers by Oklahoma will make this a Tom Robinson ho ho ho special as the Cowboys win outright, but I’ll take the points anyway.
Despite your record..... and its pretty common for a lot of good cappers to be under water this year......the clarity of your math and logic should start adding up to great weeks. I cap the same way, statistically and with my eyes, not by reputation. Last week, I went 9 - 1 - 1 whereas every other week was 1 win over .500 or 1-2 wins UNDER .500
Yours is coming...those are good writeups. I like looking at cappers who have to bare down (because focus INCREASES, with the law of averages now in your favour as well) and so thanks for your calls
I will be on Iowa and Okie St. as Vegas is leading the public with their stinky lines and will be exploiting that
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Despite your record..... and its pretty common for a lot of good cappers to be under water this year......the clarity of your math and logic should start adding up to great weeks. I cap the same way, statistically and with my eyes, not by reputation. Last week, I went 9 - 1 - 1 whereas every other week was 1 win over .500 or 1-2 wins UNDER .500
Yours is coming...those are good writeups. I like looking at cappers who have to bare down (because focus INCREASES, with the law of averages now in your favour as well) and so thanks for your calls
I will be on Iowa and Okie St. as Vegas is leading the public with their stinky lines and will be exploiting that
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