I AM HUGE (6-1 YTD 86%) WEEK 2 PICKS AND ANALYSIS

I have Wake Forest -7 @ Betrivers for $150 the line now -13.5

Luv your write ups huge-thanks for posting$$$$$

Thanks for the analysis, well thought out, much better than just posting your picks, the WHY is what I like to read.

Thanks....I hope others feel the same way.

@iamhuge

 I love that Hawaii pick.....anytime you see a line that high it normally comes in.....

LOUSIANA -10.5 eastern michigan

I really love this bet for multiple reasons.  Hopefully no one has already forgotten that the Ragin Cajuns were 13-1 last season.  Notably, the Cajuns surrendered 18.5 points per game, which had them ranked 11th in the nation.  That’s a really good defense and it is what got Bill Napier the job over at Florida.  They continued this effort into the current season with a 24-7 opening win over in state rival SE Louisiana. 

Their opponent this week, Eastern Michigan also traded blows with an FCS school that isn’t as good as SE Louisiana.  Their 42-34 victory was not impressive, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.  When it came to stopping the run, the Eagles gave up 141 yds on 28 attempts, which is an average of 5.0 yds per rush surrendered. What is most shocking is that Eastern Michigan was not the big MAC daddy in this game against the weaker foe…they struggled moving the ball on the ground, netting only 3.8 yards per carry.  That doesn’t bode well for when they go on the road this Saturday.  You know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road against a higher ranked opponent (ULL is ranked 49, EMU is ranked 103)?   You lose…that’s what happens.

Eastern Michigan is in a state of turmoil.  Their professors are on strike so the kids don’t have class.  You know what happens when the football players don’t have class?  They stay up late at night, play video games and smoke weed.    This will be their QB Taylor Powell’s first game against an FBS opponent, and a very good defense, for the EMU Eagles.  There is going to be a lot of pressure on him to complete passes – on the road – when they are not going to be productive running the ball on first down. Another questionable area is Eastern Michigan’s line. They gave up two sacks and two tackles for loss against the EKU Colonels.  Remember the wrestler Colonel DeBeers from South Africa? 

It's hard to say how good the Ragin’ Cajun offense will be.  I’m not a fan of the two headed monster, Quarterback Chandler Fields led the way for the Louisiana offense completing 13 of 20 passes for 173 yards and two scores and Ben Wooldridge completed seven passes for 68 yards as well. What is sure is that their defense will be light year’s better than EMU’s defense, so Louisiana will have a much easier time getting the game under control, especially at home.  EMU currently stands at 7-12-1 against current Sun Belt Conference programs and in this game, they are facing a team at the top of the Sun Belt. 

I like going with the better team, the home team, and the much better defense against a very weak defense.  Covering the 10.5 won’t be a layup, but the Cajun defense will keep the back door closed.  Going with the home favorites in Louisiana.

@iamhuge

 Don’t like nmsu….

i usually never like them, but my analysis will hopefully convey my thinking

MICHIGAN -50 hawaii

Let’s face it, this is nothing but a ha ha ha pick, right?  Actually no.  If you run the numbers, it makes a lot of sense.  Michigan beat Colorado State by 44 points.  Colorado State and Vanderbilt are identical based on the Sagarin ratings (both have a 63 rating).  Vandy beat Hawaii, at Hawaii, by 53 points.  That makes Michigan 97 points better than Hawaii.    Western Kentucky beat Hawaii, at Hawaii, by 42 points.  Western Kentucky only beat Austin Peay by 11 points.  Austin Peay is better than Hawaii.  If Michigan played Austin Peay at home, no one would dispute that they could, or would, win that game by 50 points.

The matter here is that Michigan is very very good and is a historical bully against weak teams.  Hawaii is a team that struggles on the road, due to the travel and time change, when they are good.  This year, they aren’t good.  In fact they are horrible. Why?  They lost all of their players to the transfer portal and Timmy Chang doesn’t know to coach.  This team is a complete dumpster fire fueled by rotten pineapples.   PFF ranks Hawaii towards the bottom of the country in about every category there is.

This game has the biggest point spread in Michigan football history.  They will be playing Hawaii under the lights.  Michigan has Connecticut next week, so there is no look ahead game to be concerned about.  In fact, this game and the next game will be a preseason competition for the starting QB spot.  McNamara and McCarthy will obviously have the microscope on them and whomever plays better will get the starting nod for the Big 10 slate.  How do they prove who is better? They score…they score…they score and score.  Michigan stalled 3 times in the red zone against Colorado State, settling for field goals.  That won’t happen against the Rainbow Warriors.  They will punch it in every time they get down there.  Michigan ran for 234 yards against Colorado State.  Vanderbilt ran for 400 yards against Hawaii.  FOUR HUNDRED!  They had 9.2 yards per carry!!  Could Hawaii even tackle???  What do you think Michigan is going to do with their Big 10 linemen plowing through Hawaii like someone who won the lottery at Sapphires in Las Vegas?!!

They will be getting the ball back quite a bit, given that the Hawaii offense cannot get out of their own way (averaging only 13 points per game against two teams that don’t nearly have the same defense that Michigan does).  Hawaii will not score more than 10 points.  The Rams scored only 7 points against Michigan.  “Right now we’re trying to get a lot of people we’re really – especially the offensive side of the ball – we’re really young in some areas,” said Chang. “So you want to keep plugging guys in as much as you can and throwing them into the fire.”   They won’t just be throwing these kids into the fire, they will be throwing them into a blast furnace.  What the hell kind of coaching strategy is that?  This Chang dude has been smoking too much ganja.  The Wolverines recorded seven sacks and 11 tackles-for-loss last Saturday against Colorado State.  Hawaii has been sacked five times thru two games, but neither Vanderbilt nor Western Kentucky have a very fearful defensive line, Michigan does.    Hawaii ran for 2.7 yards per carry against Western Kentucky.   Do you know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road?  You lose…that’s what happens.    I don’t see a scenario where Michigan punts the ball on Saturday.  They will have 63 points by the start of the 4 quarter.   Taking the Wolverines to the pay window laying the wood against the Rainbow Warriors. 

new mexico state +13.5  UTEP

Ordinarily I bet against New Mexico State as often as I can.  Why?  Because they are horrible, that’s why.  However, I can say the same thing about UTEP.  So this time there might be a wee bit of a quandary when it comes to deciding which of these two teams are worse.  In this case, the bottom line is I love the points.  This is a total value play.  The Massey composite has UTEP ranked 118 and NMSU ranked 127.  That’s usually not enough of a differential to justify the points.

UTEP showed nothing at home in a 31-13 beatdown to North Texas.  North Texas promptly lost at home by 38 points the following week to SMU.   That really doesn’t say much about how good UTEP is…because they are not good.

Both UTEP and NMSU lost by a lot to very good teams (Oklahoma and Minnesota, respectively) but these results are meaningless.  The key result which encourages the case for New Mexico State is their 23-12 loss to Nevada.  The same Nevada team that beat Texas State 38-14.  The fact that the Aggies only lost by 11 to Nevada makes the case that they will cover against UTEP.  Even more compelling is that NMSU outgained Nevada by 303 to 257, meaning that they stepped up and played some defense in that game.  Still even more convincing is that the Aggies turned over the ball 5 times in the game to zero for Nevada – and still kept the game close.  NMSU did not allow Nevada to score a touchdown in the 2 half.  If they can pull that trick again, it will be an easy cover.  Taking the underdog Aggies here in a low scoring contest. 

Did anyone find UCF?   Somehow they disappeared in the second half.  Either way it makes my like Syracuse even more. 

Wake Forest easily covers.  1-0 on the week

I'm 43-13-2 YTD

Good luck. 1 down, 4 to go. I hope you sweep

thats awesome 

Syracuse wins in a belly laugher so hard that I had to take Tums when I watched it.  2-0 on the week.  

Michigan fails to cover the ridiculous 50 point line.   2-1 on the week.  

New Mexico State loses but covers the spread.   3-1 on the week.  Another winning week.  Waiting on ULL.  

Louisiana covers easily.   That’s 4-1 on the week and 10-2 ATS YTD 83%.   

Really nice work!  

@iamhuge

 Thanks for your write up ! Really appreciate your sharing !

you got it..hope you had a good week!!