Will have some thoughts on the game later. Still on the fence about Washington, if I can't get 14.5 I may just take ML instead. Only two games I'm interested in this week.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
KState +17.5
Will have some thoughts on the game later. Still on the fence about Washington, if I can't get 14.5 I may just take ML instead. Only two games I'm interested in this week.
165 - this is dumb, and you are not so I don't get it. Why be a hero? OR has covered everything, Baylor has covered 10 in a row or something. Not saying you might not win, but aren't there better games?
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165 - this is dumb, and you are not so I don't get it. Why be a hero? OR has covered everything, Baylor has covered 10 in a row or something. Not saying you might not win, but aren't there better games?
I can see the wash play. You have two good teams playing one another. But i don't think it matters if baylor is on the road or not, k state doesn't have the athletes to stop baylor on offense and no athletes on offense to take advantage of the baylor
BOL on your play tho
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I can see the wash play. You have two good teams playing one another. But i don't think it matters if baylor is on the road or not, k state doesn't have the athletes to stop baylor on offense and no athletes on offense to take advantage of the baylor
I can see the wash play. You have two good teams playing one another. But i don't think it matters if baylor is on the road or not, k state doesn't have the athletes to stop baylor on offense and no athletes on offense to take advantage of the baylor
BOL on your play tho
See Louisville.
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Quote Originally Posted by wheaty :
I can see the wash play. You have two good teams playing one another. But i don't think it matters if baylor is on the road or not, k state doesn't have the athletes to stop baylor on offense and no athletes on offense to take advantage of the baylor
I really like the Washington play. I will be on them both spread and ML. The Kstate game is definitely the more difficult bet to make of the two, but the hardest wagers to make are winners more often than not IMO. Baylor hasn't played a road game yet, and they have played very bad defensive teams thus far. I can see Kstate's defense smacking Baylor in the mouth, but then I wouldn't be surprised if they blew them out.
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I really like the Washington play. I will be on them both spread and ML. The Kstate game is definitely the more difficult bet to make of the two, but the hardest wagers to make are winners more often than not IMO. Baylor hasn't played a road game yet, and they have played very bad defensive teams thus far. I can see Kstate's defense smacking Baylor in the mouth, but then I wouldn't be surprised if they blew them out.
You guys need to stop with the 70 pts a game nonsense like it means anything. The four games they've been in the average spread was almost 30. Did you think they would score 28 against WOF? What's the difference between scoring 55 and 70 at that point? They beat nobody up to now and a team that wasn't ranked in the top 25 is now treated like they are one of the top teams in CFB, they aren't. This is a team we know nothing about laying an absurd number on the road. Does anybody know how many games this team has won the last two years on the road SU in their conference? A grand total of one.
Is their defense for real? Who knows because they've played absolutely nobody with a pulse. We do know they got lit up like a Christmas tree last year so lets not act like this is some kind of big time defense. The pass defense has a lot to be desired but they are strong against the run. To be fair it's a top 50 defense, nothing more. KState will have many opportunities throwing down the field and will move the ball fine.
I keep reading they have no athletes. Really? How did they play OKST so well? OKST may not be that good but to say they have no athletes isn't being fair. There have only been three teams that have slowed down the Baylor offense and all talked about how they decided to just stop the run knowing they would give up yards in the air. You can't stop both because how they spread you out and go vertical. KState has a good enough DLine I believe to do this. Baylor runs a ton of screens, play action, quick passes and you miss one tackle and they're gone. The bottom line is your best defense is a good offense. KState must obviously hold the ball and limit possessions.
But lets get to the real reason why I think they cover. It has nothing to do with being a hero, sharp, contrarian nonsense. One of the most important things I look for is line value and whether the open is strong or weak. The open was fairly weak and no line at this point holds more value. When CFB lines (I'm not talking about low interest games in small conf.) move over 4 points the move loses far more than wins because value has quickly shifted. Don't really take the BetOnline opens serious but at -10.5 it's a reasonable number and opened there for a reason. For it to jump so much shows at how different the odds makers and gamblers feel about this one. Baylor backers you are paying a TD tax whether you realize it or not. Baylor has covered 4 in a row, what happened last year means nothing.
The most important thing I look for is trying to find a team on a much higher emotional plane and the opponent to be flat. The former is covered but the latter maybe not. I do think we could see a little bit of fat cat attitude by Baylor players. They are human beings not robots, how could they not be feeling like they can just walk in and get a win.
I hate revenge angle and it rarely applies but it does here. At home with one of the best coaches in CFB just seems like a great spot to give Baylor a scare.
KST has line value, a weak open, one team on a much higher emotional plane. Three things I look for when I bet a game are all covered. This is why I had to bite at 17.5.
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You guys need to stop with the 70 pts a game nonsense like it means anything. The four games they've been in the average spread was almost 30. Did you think they would score 28 against WOF? What's the difference between scoring 55 and 70 at that point? They beat nobody up to now and a team that wasn't ranked in the top 25 is now treated like they are one of the top teams in CFB, they aren't. This is a team we know nothing about laying an absurd number on the road. Does anybody know how many games this team has won the last two years on the road SU in their conference? A grand total of one.
Is their defense for real? Who knows because they've played absolutely nobody with a pulse. We do know they got lit up like a Christmas tree last year so lets not act like this is some kind of big time defense. The pass defense has a lot to be desired but they are strong against the run. To be fair it's a top 50 defense, nothing more. KState will have many opportunities throwing down the field and will move the ball fine.
I keep reading they have no athletes. Really? How did they play OKST so well? OKST may not be that good but to say they have no athletes isn't being fair. There have only been three teams that have slowed down the Baylor offense and all talked about how they decided to just stop the run knowing they would give up yards in the air. You can't stop both because how they spread you out and go vertical. KState has a good enough DLine I believe to do this. Baylor runs a ton of screens, play action, quick passes and you miss one tackle and they're gone. The bottom line is your best defense is a good offense. KState must obviously hold the ball and limit possessions.
But lets get to the real reason why I think they cover. It has nothing to do with being a hero, sharp, contrarian nonsense. One of the most important things I look for is line value and whether the open is strong or weak. The open was fairly weak and no line at this point holds more value. When CFB lines (I'm not talking about low interest games in small conf.) move over 4 points the move loses far more than wins because value has quickly shifted. Don't really take the BetOnline opens serious but at -10.5 it's a reasonable number and opened there for a reason. For it to jump so much shows at how different the odds makers and gamblers feel about this one. Baylor backers you are paying a TD tax whether you realize it or not. Baylor has covered 4 in a row, what happened last year means nothing.
The most important thing I look for is trying to find a team on a much higher emotional plane and the opponent to be flat. The former is covered but the latter maybe not. I do think we could see a little bit of fat cat attitude by Baylor players. They are human beings not robots, how could they not be feeling like they can just walk in and get a win.
I hate revenge angle and it rarely applies but it does here. At home with one of the best coaches in CFB just seems like a great spot to give Baylor a scare.
KST has line value, a weak open, one team on a much higher emotional plane. Three things I look for when I bet a game are all covered. This is why I had to bite at 17.5.
I absolutely love K State here. Baylor laying 17 on the road to K State is a joke. They've played absolutely nobody yet. Not only will K state cover the spread, but I think they have a legit chance of winning this game SU at home. Baylor cant win on the road like you said. I pounded K St at 17.5 and may take them first half small if I can grab 11. GL
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I absolutely love K State here. Baylor laying 17 on the road to K State is a joke. They've played absolutely nobody yet. Not only will K state cover the spread, but I think they have a legit chance of winning this game SU at home. Baylor cant win on the road like you said. I pounded K St at 17.5 and may take them first half small if I can grab 11. GL
Who the best team is. What the best conference is, stats, trends or what's on the match up page. Who's going to win the national championship or any other crap. I only care about the three things I mentioned and all happen to be against Baylor this week and what gives me an edge.
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I don't care about Baylor or KState.
I don't care about 70 points a game.
Who the best team is. What the best conference is, stats, trends or what's on the match up page. Who's going to win the national championship or any other crap. I only care about the three things I mentioned and all happen to be against Baylor this week and what gives me an edge.
They beat the s out of wv who beat number 11 ok state on a -19 spread... I agree this is first true test but if kstate can't run ball and keep clock possession Baylor will roll... Baylor will be a top 10 team this year
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They beat the s out of wv who beat number 11 ok state on a -19 spread... I agree this is first true test but if kstate can't run ball and keep clock possession Baylor will roll... Baylor will be a top 10 team this year
any lean on the baseball game tonight? and before anyone says that this is the cfl forum ive been following 165's plays for years his insight on these situations are 2nd to none
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any lean on the baseball game tonight? and before anyone says that this is the cfl forum ive been following 165's plays for years his insight on these situations are 2nd to none
^ Thought it was a strong open. Weird seeing STL as this big a dog at home especially after seeing STL numbers against Greinke. Sorry just made it a no play, no betting tonight.
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^ Thought it was a strong open. Weird seeing STL as this big a dog at home especially after seeing STL numbers against Greinke. Sorry just made it a no play, no betting tonight.
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