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larryhughes

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Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 5634

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 11:50 AM ET #51

Love Memphis

GL 165

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MonstarsInYoGrill

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Joined: May, 2013

Posts: 3008

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 1:22 PM ET #52

Rode Memphis with you 165!

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MonstarsInYoGrill

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Posts: 3008

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 3:37 PM ET #53

A big "fuc k you" the Memphis Offense for coughing it up 4 times.

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BandosWB

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Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 2909

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 6:16 PM ET #54

Memphis was the right side.

And great call on K st. I broke even on it due to half being on 1h.

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165yds

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Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 6:22 PM ET #55

Monstars it didn't work out but a bunch of weird things happened for them not to cover, that's gambling. If that game is played 10 times Memphis covers at the minimum 6. No excuses, good job Houston backers you got the win.

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WussieMan

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Posts: 26467

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 6:27 PM ET #56

baylor backers PISSED :^)

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165yds

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Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 6:50 PM ET #57

OK now I feel like this game is safe Bandos, thanks.

Wuss as you know all good things come to an end, gl.

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JBone_Texas

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Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 1016

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 7:21 PM ET #58

Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

You guys need to stop with the 70 pts a game nonsense like it means anything.

But lets get to the real reason why I think they cover. It has nothing to do with being a hero, sharp, contrarian nonsense. One of the most important things I look for is line value and whether the open is strong or weak. The open was fairly weak and no line at this point holds more value. When CFB lines (I'm not talking about low interest games in small conf.) move over 4 points the move loses far more than wins because value has quickly shifted. Don't really take the BetOnline opens serious but at -10.5 it's a reasonable number and opened there for a reason. For it to jump so much shows at how different the odds makers and gamblers feel about this one.

The most important thing I look for is trying to find a team on a much higher emotional plane and the opponent to be flat. The former is covered but the latter maybe not.

Three things I look for when I bet a game are all covered. This is why I had to bite at 17.5.

All very well said and excellent reasoning. The only thing I'd add is that I think that in situations with big line moves like what happened here you can use it as a tool to see if there is a lot of value in the underdog. Bookmakers may have been hit by sharp money at -10.5 but they were not getting sharp money on K-State as the line eased up all the way to -18 and definitely not sharp money on Baylor at anything other than -10.5. This gives the bookmakers good feedback that they shouldn't be worried about the Baylor action and provides the public with reassurance that Baylor is the right pick.

This logic would tell you that K-State was not a really strong play as the bookmakers and sharps knew Baylor to win the game but that there was not a lot of value on either side with the points. (A TD flipping to either side which could happen easily like Ohio St against NW last week good blow it and could have happened).

Opposite thing happened in the Texas/OU game. Line opened at 11.5 and went to 14 (pretty significant move) and stayed their all week. Saturday AM right before kickoff it had moved back to 11.5, clear indication that the value was on Texas (probably some inside information).

A hell of a pick and I respect your capping greatly. Your thoughts are welcome.