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I'm very very dumb

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Posted: #26
any thoughts on temple tonight  165 
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

They beat nobody up to now and a team that wasn't ranked in the top 25 is now treated like they are one of the top teams in CFB, they aren't.


To get line value, you have to be able to value the teams correctly. Baylor is a Top 5 team. Maybe the one of the best offenses in the history of college football. There are only a handful of teams that can stay on the field with them.

They blew a much better Kansas State defense off the field last season. They've blown every defense off the field since midseason of last year. This is not a team that nothing is known about. Check out their performance against UCLA in a bowl game last season. This is a team YOU know nothing about.

A fantastic passing offense with a Heisman quality RB.

If you think a team that is routinely disrespected like Baylor and has had its nose rubbed in it for years has a fat cat attitude, you are clueless. This team is going to consider this game a statement game.

Kansas State has a weak defense and is going to get smoked. The only question is how many the Baylor defense is going to give up. But given the limitations of K State's offense, I don't like their chances of covering.

As the polls and the lines show, this is not an overrated team. It is underrated.
 
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Posted: #28
thanks i thought the same thing and the line keeps rising begging to take the cards, ill be on k st with you tomorrow for sure
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

I only care about the three things I mentioned and all happen to be against Baylor this week and what gives me an edge.  


Fair enough.
 
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Posted: #30

Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

^ Thought it was a strong open.  Weird seeing STL as this big a dog  at home especially after seeing STL numbers against Greinke.  Sorry just made it a no play, no betting tonight. 

This line is based on the perception Kelly isnt as good as Greinke and the Dodgers have more rest. Cards win this game and lose tomorrow. This series is gonna go 7, but the Dodgers will be playing the Red Sox for the title. Its too good for tv not to happen. East vs West coast. Everybodies seen STL and Detroit for the last 5 years....time for a little new blood. I really think the Dodgers win it all.

As far as K St/Baylor. I get it. Home dog (big at 3 + scores) with added angles. Problem is K Sts overall team speed. Sure Snyder is a great coach, but he cant teach speed. K Sts offense may surprise some, but they just dont have all the pieces this year to keep up with this team.I dont think Baylor will score 70, but I think they put up high 40s / low 50s, Of course, they play the games for a reason, and I wouldnt be surprised to see the Wildcats win SU....

 

As always, bol 165

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

I don't care about Baylor or KState.

I don't care about 70 points a game.  

Who the best team is.  What the best conference is, stats, trends or what's on the match up page.  Who's going to win the national championship or any other crap.  I only care about the three things I mentioned and all happen to be against Baylor this week and what gives me an edge.  



What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #32
The most important thing I look for is trying to find a team on a much higher emotional plane and the opponent to be flat.  The former is covered but the latter maybe not.  I do think we could see a little bit of fat cat attitude by Baylor players.  They are human beings not robots, how could they not be feeling like they can just walk in and get a win.

I hate revenge angle and it rarely applies but it does here.  At home with one of the best coaches in CFB just seems like a great spot to give Baylor a scare.   

KST has line value, a weak open, one team on a much higher emotional plane.  Three things I look for when I bet a game are all covered.  This is why I had to bite at 17.5.


Couldn't have put it in better words Agreed! GL 165
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #33
I obviously misunderstood what you meant. Regardless, i don't wanna garble up this thread.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

KState +17.5

Will have some thoughts on the game later.  Still on the fence about Washington, if I can't get 14.5 I may just take ML instead.  Only two games I'm interested in this week.  
    nice job on the jets & ml    
 
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Posted: #35
I would not play the ML but K State +17.5 is a gift. If anything here is bet the over for sure
 
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Posted: #36
All I know is I cashed on WVU on a teaser last week and I'm going to cash on Kstate on a teaser this week
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by HypoHandi:



They blew a much better Kansas State defense off the field last season. They've blown every defense off the field since midseason of last year. This is not a team that nothing is known about. 



Well said!
 
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Posted: #38
To get line value, you have to be able to value the teams correctly. Baylor is a Top 5 team. Maybe the one of the best offenses in the history of college football. There are only a handful of teams that can stay on the field with them.

They blew a much better Kansas State defense off the field last season. They've blown every defense off the field since midseason of last year. This is not a team that nothing is known about. Check out their performance against UCLA in a bowl game last season. This is a team YOU know nothing about.

A fantastic passing offense with a Heisman quality RB.

If you think a team that is routinely disrespected like Baylor and has had its nose rubbed in it for years has a fat cat attitude, you are clueless. This team is going to consider this game a statement game.

Kansas State has a weak defense and is going to get smoked. The only question is how many the Baylor defense is going to give up. But given the limitations of K State's offense, I don't like their chances of covering.

As the polls and the lines show, this is not an overrated team. It is underrated.

..................................

Since the half way point of last year they were shut down by Iowa State and contained by OKL.  If you have great line backers you can stop this team.  The passing offense is not fantastic.  When I think of great passing attacks I think of a team where they say we're going to throw it and you can't stop us.  That's not what they do.  Every thing is quick quick quick.  The only time they really go seven steps is on play action.  Most passes are slants and different kinds of screens.  If you have great LB's you can stop them.  The line backers take away and help on these quick hitters and short passes which was the main reason Iowa State and TCU completely shut them down.   OKL played far different than the other two but that was because they didn't have those LB's.  After getting contained by OKL they have played 8 teams in a row with shiity defenses.   That's why they've looked so great on offense.  Wait till they play a top ten team, they'll get manhandled.

Our disagreement begins and ends in that you think they're top 5, I think they're top 15 and fraud when it comes to NC talk.
 
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Posted: #39
I'm on the huskies, lets get this
 
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Posted: #40
To get line value, you have to be able to value the teams correctly. Baylor is a Top 5 team. Maybe the one of the best offenses in the history of college football. There are only a handful of teams that can stay on the field with them.

They blew a much better Kansas State defense off the field last season. They've blown every defense off the field since midseason of last year. This is not a team that nothing is known about. Check out their performance against UCLA in a bowl game last season. This is a team YOU know nothing about.

A fantastic passing offense with a Heisman quality RB.

If you think a team that is routinely disrespected like Baylor and has had its nose rubbed in it for years has a fat cat attitude, you are clueless. This team is going to consider this game a statement game.

Kansas State has a weak defense and is going to get smoked. The only question is how many the Baylor defense is going to give up. But given the limitations of K State's offense, I don't like their chances of covering.

As the polls and the lines show, this is not an overrated team. It is underrated.

.........................

They have no shot against a big time team.

Go watch that Iowa State game again, they didn't just get stopped they got beat up.  OKL did fine against them.

Why? UCLA was awful and had one of the worst defenses in CFB last year.  Am I supposed to be impressed by that victory?

Great passing teams are teams where you know the throw is coming and still can't stop them.  When they get behind in down and distance they are not very good.



 
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Posted: #41
I wouldn't say you're dumb...................I'd say I am for taking a dd road fav.

 GL today
 
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Posted: #42
to be honest i like the 17.5 with kstate.. thats just me though. 
 
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Posted: #43
(from Covers home page) : Baylor has been the popular choice with the public the past few weeks and has once again swayed one-sided money on its weekend game, with 93 percent of the handle on the Bears. This one could keep going up once the public has its say on Saturday.


Baylor is hardly an underrated, under the radar team. Everyone is banking on a 70-21 win. Easy to do when you're hosting the UL-Monroe's and Wofford's of the world, not so simple when you're in a conference road game. 
 
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Posted: #44
With a high % of the bets coming in on Baylor the line has dropped almost three full points from the opening #  Baylor-20 to Baylor – 17.5 The Vegas sharp players i know love Kansas State. 
I bet Baylor, Looking forward to watching the game.

BOL


 
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Posted: #45
No play on Washington.  Don't like this line drop, not playing it at 13 or 13.5.
 
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Posted: #46
Gl sir ill be on Kansas st later 
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by LVTruck:

With a high % of the bets coming in on Baylor the line has dropped almost three full points from the opening #  Baylor-20 to Baylor – 17.5 The Vegas sharp players i know love Kansas State. 
I bet Baylor, Looking forward to watching the game.

BOL


  Opened at -10.5
 
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Posted: #48
Wow so many people on here about to lose their money taking Kansas state. I don't understand the obsession with underdogs this year.
 
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Posted: #49
Good luck. Staying away from this game. 
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
 
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Posted: #50
Had no interest until just now.

Memphis +7.5

Line play that fits into my system.
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