I usually don't like playing on triple option teams when the opposition has extra time to prepare, so my Army play is a bit out-of-character for me. But overall I am very bullish on the Black Knights this season, and think they will probably go bowling.
The history between these two teams is relevant from the standpoint that Temple is a team who has some experience of successfully defending the triple option, but this is a much better Army team than those who struggled with Temple in the past.
I expect both defenses to perform well, thus, by extension, I expect a low-scoring game. The total is lined at 46.5, so oddsmakers are also expecting the game to be relatively low-scoring. And simple logic finds that points are much more valuable in low-scoring affairs.
I need 17 points to back Army. I will gladly take 17 points to back a veteran team that rates to improve significantly on both sides of the ball in a low-scoring affair. We can apply this same logic to the Tulane/Wake Forest game. What this game really boils down to is how many points can Army score? I think Army will need to score 17 to cover the 17, and I really like their chances of doing so. I look for Temple to win by a score of something like 31-21.
Road chalk is always a scary proposition so, yes, it's always a concern. I have posted extensively why I like the Clemson play so much, and it's primarily rooted in the fact that Auburn is a complete dumpster fire at the moment, with no QB and no leadership. One of their supposed defensive leaders - starting safety Stephen Roberts - was just arrested the other day for attempting to elude police, and possessing a firearm without a license.
I posted in Tideman's thread that laying DD chalk with a Les Miles team away from home is usually a recipe for disaster, so I'm making a bit of a leap of faith here. There are many things I like about this LSU squad from a coaching and personnel standpoint, and I expect a very strong showing from them in their opener against Whisky at Lambeau Field. History tells us this is probably a foolish play, so I completely understand if someone is leery of it.
I have looked at the Tennessee game quite a bit, and concluded this is one of those stay-away games. I am on the Tennessee bandwagon to a degree, but Appy State is a scrappy opponent who is certainly capable of keeping the game close if the Vols buckle a little bit under the weight of all the preseason hype. If I had to make a play, I'd lay the chalk with Tennessee.
As to the question of fishy line movement, I really haven't looked closely to see what may have accounted for the shift. Injuries or suspensions would be the first place to look.
No idea what my SEC or bowl records were, but both were very good.
Thank you so much for the insights Jimmy.
On this note, reading between the lines and your analysis, I will drop all three (LSU, Clemson and Army) from my main parlay. I don't like betting on road teams anyways.
I really liked Tennessee but the line movement of 22.5 to 20 is really fishy :(
What do you think of Florida? Line dropped from 36.5 to 35! Florida's offense is horrible but we saw what they did to MNSU last year on the opener. U-Mass is worst. This one has 63-6 written all over it. I see the backups getting a few scores against U-Mass as well.
Your thoughts?
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Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:
I usually don't like playing on triple option teams when the opposition has extra time to prepare, so my Army play is a bit out-of-character for me. But overall I am very bullish on the Black Knights this season, and think they will probably go bowling.
The history between these two teams is relevant from the standpoint that Temple is a team who has some experience of successfully defending the triple option, but this is a much better Army team than those who struggled with Temple in the past.
I expect both defenses to perform well, thus, by extension, I expect a low-scoring game. The total is lined at 46.5, so oddsmakers are also expecting the game to be relatively low-scoring. And simple logic finds that points are much more valuable in low-scoring affairs.
I need 17 points to back Army. I will gladly take 17 points to back a veteran team that rates to improve significantly on both sides of the ball in a low-scoring affair. We can apply this same logic to the Tulane/Wake Forest game. What this game really boils down to is how many points can Army score? I think Army will need to score 17 to cover the 17, and I really like their chances of doing so. I look for Temple to win by a score of something like 31-21.
Road chalk is always a scary proposition so, yes, it's always a concern. I have posted extensively why I like the Clemson play so much, and it's primarily rooted in the fact that Auburn is a complete dumpster fire at the moment, with no QB and no leadership. One of their supposed defensive leaders - starting safety Stephen Roberts - was just arrested the other day for attempting to elude police, and possessing a firearm without a license.
I posted in Tideman's thread that laying DD chalk with a Les Miles team away from home is usually a recipe for disaster, so I'm making a bit of a leap of faith here. There are many things I like about this LSU squad from a coaching and personnel standpoint, and I expect a very strong showing from them in their opener against Whisky at Lambeau Field. History tells us this is probably a foolish play, so I completely understand if someone is leery of it.
I have looked at the Tennessee game quite a bit, and concluded this is one of those stay-away games. I am on the Tennessee bandwagon to a degree, but Appy State is a scrappy opponent who is certainly capable of keeping the game close if the Vols buckle a little bit under the weight of all the preseason hype. If I had to make a play, I'd lay the chalk with Tennessee.
As to the question of fishy line movement, I really haven't looked closely to see what may have accounted for the shift. Injuries or suspensions would be the first place to look.
No idea what my SEC or bowl records were, but both were very good.
Thank you so much for the insights Jimmy.
On this note, reading between the lines and your analysis, I will drop all three (LSU, Clemson and Army) from my main parlay. I don't like betting on road teams anyways.
I really liked Tennessee but the line movement of 22.5 to 20 is really fishy :(
What do you think of Florida? Line dropped from 36.5 to 35! Florida's offense is horrible but we saw what they did to MNSU last year on the opener. U-Mass is worst. This one has 63-6 written all over it. I see the backups getting a few scores against U-Mass as well.
On this note, reading between the lines and your analysis, I will drop all three (LSU, Clemson and Army) from my main parlay. I don't like betting on road teams anyways.
I really liked Tennessee but the line movement of 22.5 to 20 is really fishy :(
What do you think of Florida? Line dropped from 36.5 to 35! Florida's offense is horrible but we saw what they did to MNSU last year on the opener. U-Mass is worst. This one has 63-6 written all over it. I see the backups getting a few scores against U-Mass as well.
Your thoughts?
I basically feel the same way about Florida as I do Tennessee. Though I'm cautiously bullish on both teams, I don't really trust either just yet. For me this is a show me week for both teams. If both cover, then great job! Duly noted. Again, if I were forced to pick a side here, give me the Gators.
I wouldn't worry yourself to death on line movement in the Tennessee game, although I do recommend investigating it. If you really like the game, pull the trigger with confidence. Personally, I do not necessarily think Tennessee is a horrible bet. I just feel a little more comfortable with some other games.
My philosophy the first week of the season is to bet on known quantities to the extent possible. Betting on wild cards - which is what Florida and Tennessee are at this point IMO - is usually a recipe for week 1 disaster. That is EXACTLY why I'm on LSU in week 1 - they are a stable, known quantity. The problem is what they are known for is struggling in games like this. Hey, that's why they call it gambling!
All that said, I don't think I would throw LSU into your parlay. I honestly think the USC/Alabama 1st half UNDER is a superior play, but good luck with whatever you decide.
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Quote Originally Posted by m0rtgageguy:
Thank you so much for the insights Jimmy.
On this note, reading between the lines and your analysis, I will drop all three (LSU, Clemson and Army) from my main parlay. I don't like betting on road teams anyways.
I really liked Tennessee but the line movement of 22.5 to 20 is really fishy :(
What do you think of Florida? Line dropped from 36.5 to 35! Florida's offense is horrible but we saw what they did to MNSU last year on the opener. U-Mass is worst. This one has 63-6 written all over it. I see the backups getting a few scores against U-Mass as well.
Your thoughts?
I basically feel the same way about Florida as I do Tennessee. Though I'm cautiously bullish on both teams, I don't really trust either just yet. For me this is a show me week for both teams. If both cover, then great job! Duly noted. Again, if I were forced to pick a side here, give me the Gators.
I wouldn't worry yourself to death on line movement in the Tennessee game, although I do recommend investigating it. If you really like the game, pull the trigger with confidence. Personally, I do not necessarily think Tennessee is a horrible bet. I just feel a little more comfortable with some other games.
My philosophy the first week of the season is to bet on known quantities to the extent possible. Betting on wild cards - which is what Florida and Tennessee are at this point IMO - is usually a recipe for week 1 disaster. That is EXACTLY why I'm on LSU in week 1 - they are a stable, known quantity. The problem is what they are known for is struggling in games like this. Hey, that's why they call it gambling!
All that said, I don't think I would throw LSU into your parlay. I honestly think the USC/Alabama 1st half UNDER is a superior play, but good luck with whatever you decide.
I would love to have your thoughts on the Texas State/Ohio under first half. Other than Ohio's starting quarterback quitting, I really didn't expect them to have any trouble on offense and this one versus Texas states putrid defense. Was thinking 24-7 HT score or so.
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I would love to have your thoughts on the Texas State/Ohio under first half. Other than Ohio's starting quarterback quitting, I really didn't expect them to have any trouble on offense and this one versus Texas states putrid defense. Was thinking 24-7 HT score or so.
I would love to have your thoughts on the Texas State/Ohio under first half. Other than Ohio's starting quarterback quitting, I really didn't expect them to have any trouble on offense and this one versus Texas states putrid defense. Was thinking 24-7 HT score or so.
A 24-7 halftime score would take it OVER the 1st half total would it not?
I have looked at this game quite a bit. I like Texas State +21 and UNDER 30 (1st Half), but don't like either enough to play them.
Per my week 1 criteria, these plays are a bit too speculative for my blood.
New Texas State OC Brett Elliott likes to run fast, but check out this interview following their spring game. It makes you wonder if they have enough bodies to run fast.
I would love to have your thoughts on the Texas State/Ohio under first half. Other than Ohio's starting quarterback quitting, I really didn't expect them to have any trouble on offense and this one versus Texas states putrid defense. Was thinking 24-7 HT score or so.
A 24-7 halftime score would take it OVER the 1st half total would it not?
I have looked at this game quite a bit. I like Texas State +21 and UNDER 30 (1st Half), but don't like either enough to play them.
Per my week 1 criteria, these plays are a bit too speculative for my blood.
New Texas State OC Brett Elliott likes to run fast, but check out this interview following their spring game. It makes you wonder if they have enough bodies to run fast.
Hey guys. Any thoughts on vandy-usc under 41, louis-charl under 61 and ind-fiu over 61??? The vandy under looks best to me given vandy's d and usc major rebuild with freshman qb. Vandy not much offense vs Muschamp who is a defensive coach. Louisville didn't score over 45 points last yr and their D is tight. Charl will score 10 or less. If they score 10 and Louisville improves their top end by 7, it goes over. I just think Louis will play the waterboy and any cheerleader after this gets ugly early, thus my under lean. Ind-fiu looks to be a shootout similar to Cal-Haw. I know Indy has new an but I could throw on do FIU! Doesn't look like Indy puts much emphasis on d either thus my over lean. Thanks in advance for any insights you are willing to share! BOL
First of all, if I were betting the totals in these games, I would take the same side as you in all three.
I love the UNDER in the USC/Vandy game. Both defenses rate to be considerably better than their offensive counterparts. I do have a policy of not betting UNDER when the total is lined below 42, which is where I see the line now. If I can get a 1st half number of 21 or better, I might be interested.
What scares me about taking the UNDER in the Charlotte/Louisville game is that, knowing Bobby Petrino's propensity for running up the score, Louisville make take the UNDER down on their own. And if Charlotte happens to muster 10 points (and I don't think they will), I think that will doom the UNDER. I think laying the chalk with Louisville the best play here.
I have looked at the Indy/FIU extensively. I like FIU to stay with Indy blow-for-blow in this game, if not win it outright. Thus, if I made any play here, it would be FIU +8 (and maybe ML as well).
I agree the game should probably go OVER - particularly if it's a competitive game like I think it will be. A ton of questions confront both teams heading into this contest which has kept off the game for the time being.
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Quote Originally Posted by hammeratl:
Hey guys. Any thoughts on vandy-usc under 41, louis-charl under 61 and ind-fiu over 61??? The vandy under looks best to me given vandy's d and usc major rebuild with freshman qb. Vandy not much offense vs Muschamp who is a defensive coach. Louisville didn't score over 45 points last yr and their D is tight. Charl will score 10 or less. If they score 10 and Louisville improves their top end by 7, it goes over. I just think Louis will play the waterboy and any cheerleader after this gets ugly early, thus my under lean. Ind-fiu looks to be a shootout similar to Cal-Haw. I know Indy has new an but I could throw on do FIU! Doesn't look like Indy puts much emphasis on d either thus my over lean. Thanks in advance for any insights you are willing to share! BOL
First of all, if I were betting the totals in these games, I would take the same side as you in all three.
I love the UNDER in the USC/Vandy game. Both defenses rate to be considerably better than their offensive counterparts. I do have a policy of not betting UNDER when the total is lined below 42, which is where I see the line now. If I can get a 1st half number of 21 or better, I might be interested.
What scares me about taking the UNDER in the Charlotte/Louisville game is that, knowing Bobby Petrino's propensity for running up the score, Louisville make take the UNDER down on their own. And if Charlotte happens to muster 10 points (and I don't think they will), I think that will doom the UNDER. I think laying the chalk with Louisville the best play here.
I have looked at the Indy/FIU extensively. I like FIU to stay with Indy blow-for-blow in this game, if not win it outright. Thus, if I made any play here, it would be FIU +8 (and maybe ML as well).
I agree the game should probably go OVER - particularly if it's a competitive game like I think it will be. A ton of questions confront both teams heading into this contest which has kept off the game for the time being.
I have looked at the game at length, and decided to stay away. Just too many unknowns for both teams. I like Georgia quite a bit because they have better athletes, and because I feel it's a MUST WIN game for Kirby. But a wager on the Bulldogs is a wager on a brand new coaching staff and a true freshman QB. I'll sit this one out.
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Quote Originally Posted by monkeebooger:
Jimmy - any thoughts on Georgia/UNC game buddy?
I have looked at the game at length, and decided to stay away. Just too many unknowns for both teams. I like Georgia quite a bit because they have better athletes, and because I feel it's a MUST WIN game for Kirby. But a wager on the Bulldogs is a wager on a brand new coaching staff and a true freshman QB. I'll sit this one out.
Jimmy ill take a stab at your question. If you were 0-100 I would still say your chances of hitting your next game are 50 percent. It is hard for me to ever believe that anyone is below 50% to hit any given pick. It also takes incredible depth of track record for me to believe any person is much more likely than 50% on any given pick. If someone was 100-0 , I would want want more information than just that 100 pick set, however it is hard for me to buy the concept that any person is capable of picking games in much volume at over the high 50%s and on say single game of the week or month type games at best 65%. As we know its gambling for a reason so many variables.
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Jimmy ill take a stab at your question. If you were 0-100 I would still say your chances of hitting your next game are 50 percent. It is hard for me to ever believe that anyone is below 50% to hit any given pick. It also takes incredible depth of track record for me to believe any person is much more likely than 50% on any given pick. If someone was 100-0 , I would want want more information than just that 100 pick set, however it is hard for me to buy the concept that any person is capable of picking games in much volume at over the high 50%s and on say single game of the week or month type games at best 65%. As we know its gambling for a reason so many variables.
Just as a personal note, I try to hit 59-60% on 5 stars, 58 on 4*s stars, 57% on 3*s, 56% on 2*s, and 55% on 1*s. I gamble each year with the strategy of making net +10 units on each category. I pay 1/3 in taxes, 1/3 for my budget and save the last 1/3. I keep any extra in sports book tickets that I keeping rolling over to avoid more taxes.
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Just as a personal note, I try to hit 59-60% on 5 stars, 58 on 4*s stars, 57% on 3*s, 56% on 2*s, and 55% on 1*s. I gamble each year with the strategy of making net +10 units on each category. I pay 1/3 in taxes, 1/3 for my budget and save the last 1/3. I keep any extra in sports book tickets that I keeping rolling over to avoid more taxes.
Jimmy ill take a stab at your question. If you were 0-100 I would still say your chances of hitting your next game are 50 percent. It is hard for me to ever believe that anyone is below 50% to hit any given pick. It also takes incredible depth of track record for me to believe any person is much more likely than 50% on any given pick. If someone was 100-0 , I would want want more information than just that 100 pick set, however it is hard for me to buy the concept that any person is capable of picking games in much volume at over the high 50%s and on say single game of the week or month type games at best 65%. As we know its gambling for a reason so many variables.
My question was somewhat of a rhetorical one. In so doing, I was trying to drive home a point. This is gambling. What someone did in the past is really no indicator of future success. Sure it may reveal that someone has an aptitude for the business, but that doesn't necessarily mean the next opinion I post will be right or wrong.
Here's a link to my late season + bowls plays. If someone wants to go through that thread and figure out what my was record, GOOD LUCK! I'm certainly too time poor to do it.
Jimmy ill take a stab at your question. If you were 0-100 I would still say your chances of hitting your next game are 50 percent. It is hard for me to ever believe that anyone is below 50% to hit any given pick. It also takes incredible depth of track record for me to believe any person is much more likely than 50% on any given pick. If someone was 100-0 , I would want want more information than just that 100 pick set, however it is hard for me to buy the concept that any person is capable of picking games in much volume at over the high 50%s and on say single game of the week or month type games at best 65%. As we know its gambling for a reason so many variables.
My question was somewhat of a rhetorical one. In so doing, I was trying to drive home a point. This is gambling. What someone did in the past is really no indicator of future success. Sure it may reveal that someone has an aptitude for the business, but that doesn't necessarily mean the next opinion I post will be right or wrong.
Here's a link to my late season + bowls plays. If someone wants to go through that thread and figure out what my was record, GOOD LUCK! I'm certainly too time poor to do it.
Hey guys. Any thoughts on vandy-usc under 41, louis-charl under 61 and ind-fiu over 61??? The vandy under looks best to me given vandy's d and usc major rebuild with freshman qb. Vandy not much offense vs Muschamp who is a defensive coach. Louisville didn't score over 45 points last yr and their D is tight. Charl will score 10 or less. If they score 10 and Louisville improves their top end by 7, it goes over. I just think Louis will play the waterboy and any cheerleader after this gets ugly early, thus my under lean. Ind-fiu looks to be a shootout similar to Cal-Haw. I know Indy has new an but I could throw on do FIU! Doesn't look like Indy puts much emphasis on d either thus my over lean. Thanks in advance for any insights you are willing to share! BOL
I will also throw out a caution on the Indy/FIU game. There is an approaching tropical storm that suppose to make landfall somewhere in Florida on Thursday. This situation should be closely monitored.
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Quote Originally Posted by hammeratl:
Hey guys. Any thoughts on vandy-usc under 41, louis-charl under 61 and ind-fiu over 61??? The vandy under looks best to me given vandy's d and usc major rebuild with freshman qb. Vandy not much offense vs Muschamp who is a defensive coach. Louisville didn't score over 45 points last yr and their D is tight. Charl will score 10 or less. If they score 10 and Louisville improves their top end by 7, it goes over. I just think Louis will play the waterboy and any cheerleader after this gets ugly early, thus my under lean. Ind-fiu looks to be a shootout similar to Cal-Haw. I know Indy has new an but I could throw on do FIU! Doesn't look like Indy puts much emphasis on d either thus my over lean. Thanks in advance for any insights you are willing to share! BOL
I will also throw out a caution on the Indy/FIU game. There is an approaching tropical storm that suppose to make landfall somewhere in Florida on Thursday. This situation should be closely monitored.
Jimmy, I have been following you and Lordzud for years. Finally decided to sign up on covers because of you 2. had a great year last year, and a huge thanks for your insight. Same to Lordzud.
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Jimmy, I have been following you and Lordzud for years. Finally decided to sign up on covers because of you 2. had a great year last year, and a huge thanks for your insight. Same to Lordzud.
I will also throw out a caution on the Indy/FIU game. There is an approaching tropical storm that suppose to make landfall somewhere in Florida on Thursday. This situation should be closely monitored.
true, one of the reason why the total hasn't moved, appreciate it.
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Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:
I will also throw out a caution on the Indy/FIU game. There is an approaching tropical storm that suppose to make landfall somewhere in Florida on Thursday. This situation should be closely monitored.
true, one of the reason why the total hasn't moved, appreciate it.
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