my numbers say Coastal Carolina is 26 points better then Kansas so I don’t see much value in Coastal Carolina but I am very high on this Coastal Carolina and I think they cover this number but their is value on this total.the books opened the total 57.5 and it’s down to 52.I think it would have went over the original total so we are going over this total.
Play:Kansas/Coastal Carolina Over 52
BestOfLuck!
#BallSooooooooHard!!!
7
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
My Power Ratings
Kansas 88
Coastal Carolina 114
Projected Points 61
my numbers say Coastal Carolina is 26 points better then Kansas so I don’t see much value in Coastal Carolina but I am very high on this Coastal Carolina and I think they cover this number but their is value on this total.the books opened the total 57.5 and it’s down to 52.I think it would have went over the original total so we are going over this total.
It’s so funny to hear rogue internet handicappers to use the term “ my model” lol. Dude what model ? We are one game into the season, stop being influenced by idiots like bill Connelly, there is no model. Models don’t mean shit, and all they do is make it easier to find your self tits up, this is an art not a science like some of you nerd Connelly disciples would have you think. you can say that enough times to comfort you when you lose and you can just fall back on “well my numbers said bla blah blah” we are betting hundreds and some of us thousands of dollars on... college KIDS. Some of which are less than six months removed from renting a tux for senior prom.
68 & iou1
4
@jdubb2584
It’s so funny to hear rogue internet handicappers to use the term “ my model” lol. Dude what model ? We are one game into the season, stop being influenced by idiots like bill Connelly, there is no model. Models don’t mean shit, and all they do is make it easier to find your self tits up, this is an art not a science like some of you nerd Connelly disciples would have you think. you can say that enough times to comfort you when you lose and you can just fall back on “well my numbers said bla blah blah” we are betting hundreds and some of us thousands of dollars on... college KIDS. Some of which are less than six months removed from renting a tux for senior prom.
It's a big number and I can easily see Kansas coming in the back door in garbage time. Not only did Kansas get an extremely competent coach from Buffalo, a few decent players migrated over with him. I'd be careful....As far as the total goes....maybe watch a bit and get a sense for the pacing and live bet it if you still feel good about it.
No need to outrun the bear...just the next slowest guy
0
It's a big number and I can easily see Kansas coming in the back door in garbage time. Not only did Kansas get an extremely competent coach from Buffalo, a few decent players migrated over with him. I'd be careful....As far as the total goes....maybe watch a bit and get a sense for the pacing and live bet it if you still feel good about it.
Well I don’t know how you beat the books.prolly by guessing but I can’t do that.my numbers come from an ex bookie who used to set the lines for these games.I just like to make sure I’m on the right side of the line for the most part and if I lose all is good as long as I’m on the right side of the line the majority of the time.
#BallSooooooooHard!!!
0
@iou69
Well I don’t know how you beat the books.prolly by guessing but I can’t do that.my numbers come from an ex bookie who used to set the lines for these games.I just like to make sure I’m on the right side of the line for the most part and if I lose all is good as long as I’m on the right side of the line the majority of the time.
Look at my Louisville/ole miss post.I was a touchdown off the spread and my projections had the game landing on 65 and the total landed on 67 which is 2 points off.the books put a power rating on every player on the team to know how good a team is.the hardest part is figuring out how good the new players are but they put a base number on them an adjust their rating by their progression.you can say whatever you want and think whatever you want but I make huge profits every year off my numbers and I’m gonna keep winning big no matter what you or anyone thinks or says.goodluck with your wagers kiddo
#BallSooooooooHard!!!
0
@iou69
Look at my Louisville/ole miss post.I was a touchdown off the spread and my projections had the game landing on 65 and the total landed on 67 which is 2 points off.the books put a power rating on every player on the team to know how good a team is.the hardest part is figuring out how good the new players are but they put a base number on them an adjust their rating by their progression.you can say whatever you want and think whatever you want but I make huge profits every year off my numbers and I’m gonna keep winning big no matter what you or anyone thinks or says.goodluck with your wagers kiddo
Models/ numbers . At this point we’re speaking semantics. If you look at my thread history I made two detailed threads weeks before of why Utah st would win outright as a 17 point dog. The same analysis I used for Utah st , I used for Notre Dame covering-7.5, and they didn’t. Same amazing analysis, 1-1. At the end of the day this is an art not a science so let’s stop deluding ourselves into thinking such. It’s just seems like it’s a qualifier when someone says “ my model / my numbers /my ratings say “ as if it solidifies your handicapping for that game , Just give your handicapping.
68 & iou1
0
@thorpe
Models/ numbers . At this point we’re speaking semantics. If you look at my thread history I made two detailed threads weeks before of why Utah st would win outright as a 17 point dog. The same analysis I used for Utah st , I used for Notre Dame covering-7.5, and they didn’t. Same amazing analysis, 1-1. At the end of the day this is an art not a science so let’s stop deluding ourselves into thinking such. It’s just seems like it’s a qualifier when someone says “ my model / my numbers /my ratings say “ as if it solidifies your handicapping for that game , Just give your handicapping.
I saw a good bit of that Kansas game .. run got totally shut down, QB scrambles got it positive but not sure coastal gunna allow as much of that .. KU w like 40 yds on 6 drives before landing a TD drive but had to luck out starting on the SD 40 .. FG drive in H2 started at SD 44 .. really the one legit longer score was the game winner .. I watched some of SD in the spring and offense was not very good D was ok a couple games but still near bottom of the MVC very beatable .. Kans getting only 245 yds and got out-yarded .. only 12 first downs .. ran the ball 66% and a 20 yd pass 14 yd run was the most explosive stuff .. they'll also prob have to burn 6 or 7 minutes trying to score and their drives could easily dud out before the end zone .. if playing over 52 I'd really not want them to contribute and just punt the ball away quick, hope for quick scores .. gettin 52 that way is possible and might as well parlay it with the spread .. would also only want just do H1, wouldn't want to bank on quick scores w out McCall in there the backup isin't bad but drives prob slow wayy down less chance they score .. Now ive said all that let's see Bean go H.A.M here and make me eat my words lol ..
Good luck on the play bud, I took coastal for a few bucks so I'm basically cheering for ya ..
0
I saw a good bit of that Kansas game .. run got totally shut down, QB scrambles got it positive but not sure coastal gunna allow as much of that .. KU w like 40 yds on 6 drives before landing a TD drive but had to luck out starting on the SD 40 .. FG drive in H2 started at SD 44 .. really the one legit longer score was the game winner .. I watched some of SD in the spring and offense was not very good D was ok a couple games but still near bottom of the MVC very beatable .. Kans getting only 245 yds and got out-yarded .. only 12 first downs .. ran the ball 66% and a 20 yd pass 14 yd run was the most explosive stuff .. they'll also prob have to burn 6 or 7 minutes trying to score and their drives could easily dud out before the end zone .. if playing over 52 I'd really not want them to contribute and just punt the ball away quick, hope for quick scores .. gettin 52 that way is possible and might as well parlay it with the spread .. would also only want just do H1, wouldn't want to bank on quick scores w out McCall in there the backup isin't bad but drives prob slow wayy down less chance they score .. Now ive said all that let's see Bean go H.A.M here and make me eat my words lol ..
Good luck on the play bud, I took coastal for a few bucks so I'm basically cheering for ya ..
The scariest part of that SD game is that Kansas offensive line was getting obliterated all night. SD qb had time but they had no weapons. Added that their punter was only averaging 30 something yards so they could go 3 and out several times and leave Coastal with multiple drives of short field.
68 & iou1
0
@Bridge1
The scariest part of that SD game is that Kansas offensive line was getting obliterated all night. SD qb had time but they had no weapons. Added that their punter was only averaging 30 something yards so they could go 3 and out several times and leave Coastal with multiple drives of short field.
yeah no kidding .. saw the first couple plays and thought this was gunna be a long night for them .. it was ... 8 TFL's and I assume espn stats credit a sack if any of those were on Bean so 25 RB runs .. 1 outta 3 were behind the line of scrimmage .. all the RB's all got 1 yard per carry .. yikes...
0
@iou69
yeah no kidding .. saw the first couple plays and thought this was gunna be a long night for them .. it was ... 8 TFL's and I assume espn stats credit a sack if any of those were on Bean so 25 RB runs .. 1 outta 3 were behind the line of scrimmage .. all the RB's all got 1 yard per carry .. yikes...
@jdubb2584 It’s so funny to hear rogue internet handicappers to use the term “ my model” lol. Dude what model ? We are one game into the season, stop being influenced by idiots like bill Connelly, there is no model. Models don’t mean shit, and all they do is make it easier to find your self tits up, this is an art not a science like some of you nerd Connelly disciples would have you think. you can say that enough times to comfort you when you lose and you can just fall back on “well my numbers said bla blah blah” we are betting hundreds and some of us thousands of dollars on... college KIDS. Some of which are less than six months removed from renting a tux for senior prom.
I've been doing my own point spread ratings for 33 years..
Bill Connelly is an idiot ??
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
0
Quote Originally Posted by iou69:
@jdubb2584 It’s so funny to hear rogue internet handicappers to use the term “ my model” lol. Dude what model ? We are one game into the season, stop being influenced by idiots like bill Connelly, there is no model. Models don’t mean shit, and all they do is make it easier to find your self tits up, this is an art not a science like some of you nerd Connelly disciples would have you think. you can say that enough times to comfort you when you lose and you can just fall back on “well my numbers said bla blah blah” we are betting hundreds and some of us thousands of dollars on... college KIDS. Some of which are less than six months removed from renting a tux for senior prom.
I've been doing my own point spread ratings for 33 years..
@jdubb2584 It’s so funny to hear rogue internet handicappers to use the term “ my model” lol. Dude what model ? We are one game into the season, stop being influenced by idiots like bill Connelly, there is no model. Models don’t mean shit, and all they do is make it easier to find your self tits up, this is an art not a science like some of you nerd Connelly disciples would have you think. you can say that enough times to comfort you when you lose and you can just fall back on “well my numbers said bla blah blah” we are betting hundreds and some of us thousands of dollars on... college KIDS. Some of which are less than six months removed from renting a tux for senior prom.
I've been doing my own point spread ratings for 33 years..
Bill Connelly is an idiot ??
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
0
Quote Originally Posted by iou69:
@jdubb2584 It’s so funny to hear rogue internet handicappers to use the term “ my model” lol. Dude what model ? We are one game into the season, stop being influenced by idiots like bill Connelly, there is no model. Models don’t mean shit, and all they do is make it easier to find your self tits up, this is an art not a science like some of you nerd Connelly disciples would have you think. you can say that enough times to comfort you when you lose and you can just fall back on “well my numbers said bla blah blah” we are betting hundreds and some of us thousands of dollars on... college KIDS. Some of which are less than six months removed from renting a tux for senior prom.
I've been doing my own point spread ratings for 33 years..
Bill Connelly is a genius because he convinces people that is precious sp ratings have ANY significant correlation a team covering. He is a complete charlatan, and if he ever spent a weekend betting his hard earned money on his “numbers” he would go tits up as quick as any average joe. I have said it once and I will reiterate, this is an art not a science and anyone who suggests otherwise is delusional. There is so much information these “numbers/models” don’t account for. Injuries , player missing a first half due to targeting, coaching changes, discord between staff, key players missing the first month coming back, key players injured after a month that completely changes how a coach calls plays, playing after a big win/loss , could name 10 other grey area subjective scenarios that effect the outcome of a spread that will never show up statistically, how do you quantify that on your oh so sanctified spread sheet? You can’t ,because this shit is Jazz not an orchestra
68 & iou1
2
Bill Connelly is a genius because he convinces people that is precious sp ratings have ANY significant correlation a team covering. He is a complete charlatan, and if he ever spent a weekend betting his hard earned money on his “numbers” he would go tits up as quick as any average joe. I have said it once and I will reiterate, this is an art not a science and anyone who suggests otherwise is delusional. There is so much information these “numbers/models” don’t account for. Injuries , player missing a first half due to targeting, coaching changes, discord between staff, key players missing the first month coming back, key players injured after a month that completely changes how a coach calls plays, playing after a big win/loss , could name 10 other grey area subjective scenarios that effect the outcome of a spread that will never show up statistically, how do you quantify that on your oh so sanctified spread sheet? You can’t ,because this shit is Jazz not an orchestra
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