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Keep Touching me.. I'm still hot

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Posted: #26
Locked in:

South Florida +6.5 (Tier I) - LARGE

Temple +5 (Tier I) - LARGE
 
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Buffalo +10.5 (Tier I) 
 
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Posted: #28
Wow I just saw the SMU line drop to +3.5 for a few seconds - love that
 
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Posted: #29
BOL ALL #s
 
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SMU (+5) - Tier I 
 
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I dont know if my reasoning, "I'm not touching that game. I dont like that ASU has already done so well this season ATS and at home. And Oregon, despite being #3 in the country, is by no means as good ATS. I would be all over ASU if it were the other way around. 

On the other hand, Houston has covered 3 games in a row, and Southern Methodist lost as 18-point favorites just last week - I like the divergence in indicators presented by this game a lot more (in addition to the RLM) " -- was the reason for what happened but word. 
 
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Posted: #32
What do you like about S. Florida?  On paper it's two programs going in different directions.
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by NERMAN:

What do you like about S. Florida?  On paper it's two programs going in different directions.


I flipped a coin on this game - heads for SFU, tails for Louisville. It landed on heads.... crazy but it works 100% of the time half the time. 
 
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Downgrading: from Tier I to Tier II


Texas SA +11.5 (Tier II) 
 
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bol
 
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Allnumbers...you are a must read for me but, I am not liking one of your picks. UTSA has played the 170th toughest schedule and I am not sure they can handle a team like San Jose. I know that 11.5 points are a lot at home but, I use efficiency ratings from Football Outsiders and they have SJSU rated 57th in efficiency and UTSA rated 120th out of 124 teams. I had San Jose on my short list and I would love to hear why you like UTSA. I did see that you downgraded the pick.

Thanks for your help and Good Luck!!

 
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You're like a miniature buddha, covered in hair
 
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Posted: #39
Gl bruh..keep it cumin
 
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Posted: #40
Nice article.  Thanks
 
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Quote Originally Posted by MortgageMan:

Allnumbers...you are a must read for me but, I am not liking one of your picks. UTSA has played the 170th toughest schedule and I am not sure they can handle a team like San Jose. I know that 11.5 points are a lot at home but, I use efficiency ratings from Football Outsiders and they have SJSU rated 57th in efficiency and UTSA rated 120th out of 124 teams. I had San Jose on my short list and I would love to hear why you like UTSA. I did see that you downgraded the pick.

Thanks for your help and Good Luck!!



I liked it a lot earlier in the week when i saw the line drop with public on San Jose, but having looked into it a little, more i actually don't anymore. Doesn't mean I like San Jose, per se, I just don't like TSA anymore. I only downgraded it because I'm already locked in - tried anticipating further drop in the line but not feeling it. 

That said, Buffalo, South Florida, and Temple all dropped further and I am loving those plays. 
 
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Posted: #43

an13

been following your pics the last couple of weeks

we bet almost the same teams. I only bet dogs.

temple has come up huge for me the way I play.

glad to see you on it.

 

 

 
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Posted: #44
any leans on this Uconn game tonight?
 
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Syracuse -4 (Tier III) - the basis of my play is not worth tailing, but i am going to take them for very little.  
 
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Posted: #46
BOL 
 
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keep up the work man
 
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Posted: #48
 thanks guys...


also been wondering - if you read this, and believe there are other cappers on covers who are legit, please let me know who you think they are. I have been looking around here and there, but dont spend too much time reading what other people write. I do think however, it could be an additional element to include in my analysis if worthy enough. 

ps im not talking about cappers like PrimteTimeBoys 
 
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Posted: #49
interesting read.. thx

bol
 
 
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Posted: #50
Just noticed that Minnesota is down to +16 - love it
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