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Keep Touching me.. I'm still hot

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Posted: #51
bOL ALL#s SYRACUSE LOOKS LIKE BREAD
 
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Posted: #52
Updated games for tomorrow are:

... parlay these top three together even at their adjusted lines. I decided to be more selective in differentiating between my tiers. This here is a more concise and accurate representation of my favorites games. I can pretty confidently say that each of the tiers will be above 50%.  

Minnesota +17.5 (Tier I) 
Temple +5 (Tier I) 
South Florida +6.5 (Tier I) 


Buffalo +10.5 (Tier II) 
Virginia Tech +8 (Tier II) 


USTA +11.5 (Tier III) 
 
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Posted: #53
LeagueCapper very good writeups
 
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Posted: #54

fantastic job!

fupm

 
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Posted: #55
Numbers. Respect your skills but believe the panthers are going to rip Buffalo a new one today. Small Buffalo defensive line will allow Graham and freshman s
Shell to both be over 100 on the ground. Could be Shell's first 200 yd. game.
 
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Posted: #56
I'm with ya on Va Tech & Temple--good luck, my man!!!
 
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Posted: #57
4-0 so far this week, lets keep it going. 

Upgrade: 

Virginia Tech +8 (Tier I) 
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by pittzzzant:

Numbers. Respect your skills but believe the panthers are going to rip Buffalo a new one today. Small Buffalo defensive line will allow Graham and freshman s
Shell to both be over 100 on the ground. Could be Shell's first 200 yd. game.

Fair enough -- if you have fundamental reasons to believe so, then I cant convince you otherwise. But maybe you could help me if im wrong to keep me off this play - there is one question I would like to ask you:

Considering Pitt is only 2-4 SU on the year, is the spread of -9 or -10 "fair" in your opinion? Let me elaborate before you jump into answering. Pitt hasnt impressed any backers with their performance this year at 2-3-1 ATS, and are now road favorites. Could they have opened up as 7-point favorites against this shitty Buffalo team? Or would that have been considered a fishy line? 

For example, I read a thread on covers the other night when Oregon was playing ASU. Someone wrote, "Oregon should have been 3-point favorites to open." Whether or not 3-points was an accurate number, the thing that interested me/i found worthy of taking into consideration, was that Oregon should have opened as a smaller favorite on the road. But the books opened them at -11. I think they knew that Oregon was going to be the public play no matter what, so why not get ASU backers to join in on the action by throwing out a really atttractive spread of +8/+9/+10/+11. 

ASU was 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS before that game, so i think its fair to say that Oregon's line was a bit strong. Ultimately, my question to you is, IS THE LINE IN THIS PITT GAME SIMILARLY STRONG? OR ARE THEY EASILY A 10-PT ROAD FAVORITE AGAINST BUFFALO? 


Thanks for helpin me out.. i may be good at this, but i always try to improve myself, and my strategy. This is an area in which i can get an additional edge. If multiple people come in here and start saying the same thing about the line, i will either be on the right side, or i wont be posting Buffalo as a play. (Will not be on Pitt regardless, the #s if anything are pointing to Buffalo. Same situation with Oregon, #s were pointing to ASU, but everything didnt line up, so I stayed away.) 
 
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Posted: #59
All>

Would a bye week in college (Clemson) affect your spread/decision/system? i do like VaTech here but im no so sure what a bye in college would do. I know a bye in NFL can do a lot of goods...thanks 
 
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Posted: #60
Going to be honest with you here, no point in forcing anything to get additional action and "hope" to cover so that i gain your trust. I am not going to lie, i think i was doing a little bit of that just a few weeks ago - you could tell by the # of games I was playing. I wanted to prove to everyone that i could pick that many games and still kill it. The bottom line is that I do think i can pick more winners than losers regardless of the # of games i play, but the purpose of this thread is to show instead that i strongly believe i could pick games close to 70% correctly -- those are my Tier I plays. 


I dont like that Minnesota popped back up to +17.5 the way it did. That said, I am locked in, and I will not hedge out unless the spread hits 19 somehow. For those who took/wanted to take Minnesota, i would maybe just advise not to pound as hard as i did. Again, I could easily just claim I dont care, and that I still like Minnesota a ton, but then id be lying and there wouldnt be any consistency/level of trust i could gain. I am approaching this as if anyone who decides to tail me, blindly or not, are like investors that I advise. 

Good luck either way! Will be back in a little with some more plays, most of which will be Tier II or Tier III plays - basically, games in which i believe i have an edge, but in which ALL the stars do not line up. Tier I plays are the cream of the crop plays that I think can hit close to 70% of the time. The others will probably trend towards the 60% mark.  
 
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Posted: #61
Thanks for your reply numbers. Pitt has actually played well its last four games and is 2-1 ATS (no line against Gardner-Webb) with its only loss against Louisville. Lost bu one at Syracuse in the dome a game where they were down 14-0 quickly and then lost 14-13. Basically controlled the game til Sunseri made bad decisions late. Were in Louisville game (up at the half) til Bridgewater went off in third quarter. Pitt should dominate because sunseri should not be in position to lose the game. If it is close he tends to freeze up and make a bad decision. The defense plays well against medium to bad quarterbacks which Zordich is. I actually expect a blowout. As I said earlier Shell could have his breakout game as running back.
 
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Posted: #62
Pittzant - thanks for getting back to me. I spoke with some people and came to the conclusion that this Pitt line is definitely accurate. That being the case, if the line remains below 10 before kickoff, Buffalo will be a Tier I play for me. I understand your logic, and that Pitt "should" blow Buffalo out, but the #'s are suggesting otherwise so far. 

If you haven't noticed, I don't support any of my college picks with fundamental analysis - I literally don't know a single college football player's name. Someone came into my thread the other week and congratulated me on a Navy pick for example, suggesting that it was a ballsy pick since Navy is god awful. The fact that I dont know anything about them works to my advantage at the end of the day. I am not betting on which team I like to cover the spread, but rather on the quantitative clues/evidence I come across throughout my analysis. GL. May the best pick win! 
 
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Posted: #63
RUTGERS ALL DAY!!!!
 
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Posted: #64
LOVE that temple dropped to +3.5 right now - LOVE LOVE LOVE -- POUND IT !!!! ML TOO!!
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by TRISTANS:

RUTGERS ALL DAY!!!!


Ironic that you post that as I discovered that the line dropped further. If you coming into my thread and posting this makes you feel more comfortable with your play, then by all means, I invite you to keep doing it. But you might as well keep posting that in peoples threads, because once the game starts, I dont think you will be feeling very comfortable. Sorry for saying it, but Temple is my #1 or #2 play of the week! I have a lot riding ton them.  Good luck! 
 
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Posted: #66
Good luck numbers. Totally respect your plays. Agree to disagree.
 
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Posted: #67
 
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Posted: #68
keep us updated on every play before game start time.
 
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Posted: #69
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by sycuan101:

keep us updated on every play before game start time.


Anything else youd like me to do?
 
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Posted: #71
UTSA looks like it might be upgraded to a Tier II play. 
 
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Posted: #72
Just added to my VTech bet LIVE +9.5 (Tier II) 
 
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Posted: #73
Gl bro

Do you play any halves picks?
No gamble No future
 
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Posted: #74
We'll see when they come out... 


UTSA down to +10.5 now... vegas doing a very good job of getting my attention again. Considering if its even a Tier I play now. Mental agility baby, mental agility! 
 
 
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Posted: #75
Cool.. Thanks bro.. I got buff +9.5 thru my local bookie now.. 
No gamble No future
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