LAST2THIRST Weeks 1 - 5  NCAAF Sides  

GL bro. Always a good read in your threads. Im on Minnesota as well. Liking that LSU/USC under play. Might tail that.

 Thanks man ..... I will get to Colorado - NDSU in depth if I see something but just hacking my way through things with joy because its time to really get the bet machine cranked up in straight plays and local parlays 

@Last2thirst

 Seems like unders could be the way to go early on, since the new rules changes that keep the clock running on out of bounds plays and after first downs are shortening the games.  A team that likes to ground and pound, move the chains, etc. can burn a lot of clock.

Thanks for this  ....you are probably onto something here. Love the contribution that makes me think.

Yes, I plan to see what I think are the best UNDER plays and only post them in here as one of my 3 best plays. So far I have one SIDE and one TOTAL ....might end up taking another TOTAL but just going to let the handicapping hit me like it did last night when I did the best DEFENSES collation and then looked at the Buckeyes game.

You can bet I am scanning other threads looking at what they like for UNDERs and the occasional side since I play a lot of parlay combos with 2 of the 3 KEY plays I will likely post each week. These are lottery tickets that you fill out or do online and in Ontario here, its Proline. Last year I did not have to fill my car up once and I took my wife to dinner playing combos of 3-5 games and mixing soccer. This year, I am likely starting with a lot of totals until Vegas adjusts 

USC-LSU UNDER is definitely a safe play for my parlays since I am getting 64.5  given the improvements to defense on both teams + offenses may be downgraded a little

@Last2thirst

 I'm liking the South Carolina side over Old Dominion, and while I don't dabble in overs and unders, it seems like under 55 looks solid, given that ODU's offensive line gave up a whopping 62 sacks, 105 tackles for loss and was second to last in time of possession a year ago.  That's a lot of ground to make up, and going up against a decent SEC defense in the first game of the season I don't see the Monarchs scoring much, if at all.  The Gamecocks are starting dual threat freshman QB LaNorris Sellers, a 6'3" 240 lb. beast who runs a 4.4 40.  Their offensive line returns to good health after suffering numerous injuries a year ago, and this seems to be the kind of ground and pound affair that could produce a 34-7 kind of game.  But again, I prefer playing the sides. BOL to ya! 

Nice find Boise 

Thank you.

I want to see Sellers play 

SC has a good defense this year so they could make some noise if he does

Play #3 - Buckeyes UNDER 58.5 x 1U .....strong lean to -48.5 which I am seeing in BET365 now

- Day had his presser today

-Jeremiah Smith is a starter as WR and he is electric but I also expect him get the ball thrown at him a lot to get him ready for the tougher games and there could be mixed success

-Day going with 3rd year QB backup and might give him some time in these two first games vs Akron and W.Mich

- I can see a lot of TDs in this one but no score or one FG for Akron

- 6 offensive TDs for Buckeyes.... 1 FG for each team and maybe 1x Defense score << if not, then I have room for a 7 TD game 

- might see a safety too.....either way, I have room for all of that 

- every game in the last 5 yrs has been UNDER 50 pts for Buckeyes in their own scoring and no way do I see Akrong scoring a TD vs the #1 Defense in the country

Only thing that worries me a little, Buckeyes are rated #1 Offense in the country by two separate publications  including SI which I really respect

It begs the question, why are they not rated the #1 team PRESEASON if they have the #1 Defense and Offense and I see Georgia's highest offense rank was #6 and their defense was rated behind Buckeyes in every list I saw ??

ESPN SP+ has the Buckeyes rated #25 Offense  haha.....and not the #1 Defense (they are #2) > #1 Defense in ESPN SP+ goes to Iowa who conversely have the 114th best offense which I think is a little harsh

BEST OFFENSES in COLLEGE: PRESEASON -August  

- synthesis of 3-4 sources (4 sources for Top 10 teams average and two highest average for others)

1. Oregon

2. Texas 

3. Ole Miss

4. Georgia 

5. LSU

6. Ohio St. (rated #1 two times and #25 by ESPN SP+ )

7. Memphis

8. Miami

9. Alabama

10. Oklahoma

11. Liberty

12. Notre Dame

-------------------------------SEC dominance stands out -------------

13. Tennessee

14. Missouri

15. Arizona

16. Kansas

17. USC

18. Kansas St.

19. Texas AM

20. Florida St.

21. SMU

22. Clemson

23. Oklahoma St.

24. Penn St.

25. Georgia Tech

26. Colorado

27. Florida

28. UCF

29. WVU

30. N. Carolina

31. Utah

32. Virginia Tech

33. Michigan

34. South Florida

35. TCU

36. Texas Tech

37. Arkansas

38. California 

39. Texas St.

40. Boise

41. Washington

42. Kentucky

43. Louisville

44. UNLV

45. Auburn

46. UCLA

47. S. Carolina

48. Louisiana

49. Wisconsin

50. Indiana

Others Mentioned 1 time in top 50 or appeared 2x in Top 60 > Appalachian St., UAB, B.C., Syracuse, UTSA,

Fresno, Illinois, Baylor

On the basis of the Defense and Offense ratings compiled above, it could help in the first few weeks but I STRONGLY SUGGEST you adjust them drastically if need be once 4 games have been played....I will in some cases but am looking for a strong offense to play a good defense and score on it well to hold or improve its position.

Some Lines and Totals I am eyeing on movement as IDEAS to use for my parlays in local Proline:

UNC-Gophers 50.5 ^ total going up - UNDER more attractive

-really can't see more than 5 TDs scored and if there are 6 TDs.... 3 FGS to go along with those drives maximum which puts the total up to 51 assuming every convert is made

-5 TDs converted + 5FGs puts this to 50 pts

Kent St. - Pitt 55.5 - UNDER

- really cannot see Kent scoring more than 20 on this Pitt defense

- Pitt offense is remodelled and coach Nad tends to be conservative against weak teams...just get the job done

- could I see Pitt scoring 38? I doubt it but 38 - 17 buys a win 

- Kent's 128th rated offense will put up more than 17? vs Pitts 40th best dee? (Pitts offense rated in 80's)

WMU - Wisconsin 56.5 - UNDER?

-100th offense going to make a 17 pt dent in Wisky's Top 10 defense? 

- Wisky's offense rated middling is going to run wild on the WMU defense? Not last year with this coach....remember Wisky kept hitting unders and not covering spreads with Fickell?

- last year first game vs a poor Buffalo team the score was 38-17 under Fickell > 2nd week 53 vs a great Cam Ward offense so Fickell obviously cleaned up some things.....how will he approach this year's first game? I bet more like 2nd week last year

- this total is right on the edge but with rule changes ....Under 56 should be good

WKY - Bama 59.5 - OVER

- DeBoer likes to hammer in and put the pedal down in the 4th Q I noticed

- they hammered a decent Boise team last year 56 - 19 scoring 21 pts in the 4th Q.....they didn't have to but style points mattered trying to get into the top 12

-DeBoer will likely have same mindset vs an offensive team....gone are the Saban shutdown in the 4th Q mentality

- WKY with 91st best D rating and I can tell you that Boise last year was half that likely going into week 1

- WKY ranked 60th in offense 

- I see a 52 - 13 kind of game ...any higher for WKY, Bama can go lower in total

JMAD -8.5 @ Charlotte

-Charlotte rated very low on both sides of the ball (119th offense/ 117th defense)

-JMU with 57th offense and 70's for defense.....should be a workman like win by two scores to start the year ...still looking into this one

Double post...sorry

Bol this season

Thanks vankiep, nice of you to do that! 

GL L2T! 

Like all your plays except Ohio St Under. Buckeyes have a history of pummeling instate teams and last yr that didn't happen vs Youngstown St. With Kelly as OC and all those 20 million dollars worth of NIL guys to please..........think it's Bucs and the Over although I'm no fan of same game parlays at +134....... but I might here.

Uh oh....hmmm....was mulling whether they pressed on this game or Western Michigan and I thought this one they would pound in the first half and ease off a little in the 2nd. Do you think Ohio Sti. will score over 55 pts themselves?

Appreciate your thoughts Uniman 

@Last2thirst

 I love posts like this! 

It is a GREAT reminder to those that are smart enough to follow advice.

I am the classic weak and I mean weak gambler, that knows do not chase, do not chase, do not chase, do not bet big when drunk, do not bet big because it's Monday Night Football, yet I do it, every single year!

I'm old, I mean still using a dial-up modem to bet guy, so all of yall out there heed this advice.  

I'm lucky enough to have stayed within my limits, but there were a few times where I was worried about paying the bills due to having to meet the bookie.  So I like these posts!  Check the ego, do your research, listen to advice, gather wisdom and do it for fun and to buy something nice for the mrs.

 We've all been there juice (love the name/hate paying it)!

Welcome aboard 

The mrs shut me down on local parlays and now I secretly do them with her not around ....shhhh....

She doesn't mind me doing these as long as its my hard earned moula and SHE LOVES MY HORSE BETTING ....I have a harness racing thread that goes back to the early pandemic days when I think I have documented in there wins /ticket stubs where I was on a roll at home and not working and won profits of $26K in about 4-6 months and I was spending $200-300 per day and she was getting 10-20% skim pounding the ipad ordering things for her and the house. 

Buy ya, balance is important and so is keeping it fun and losing is not fun 

Really it's a bit hard to guess the mindset.

Buckeyes do have a history. In 2016 it was 77-10 vs Bowling Green, 2019 against a decent Cinci squad Bucs were -15 and won 42-0. Akron in 2021 was 59-7. Toledo in 2022 had it 77-21. Believe I had Bucs last yr vs Youngstown St at -44 and they sputtered a bit, 35-7. On the flip side for several of those blowout games a Big10 conf. game was next so a final tuneup? This year there are no tough games for Bucs til Oct 5th (Iowa) so maybe they wait and take it out on WMich or Marshall?  Could be wrong with my take vs Akron, yet with Chip Kelly and NIL am leaning that way in game #1. 

GL 

Lots of great info here, thanks. GL this Year.

SUMMARY OF PLAYS WEEK 1: - hit my limit that I will stick to for about 3-5 weeks

Play #1 - Gophers ML x 1 U  -105

Play #2 USC-LSU Under 63.5 x 1U

Play #3 - Buckeyes UNDER 58.5 x 1U

-------------------------------------------------------

My other Inclinations (might keep track for a while):

Ohio St.  -47.5 (was the lowest I saw ) > **48.5 now

UNC-Gophers UNDER 50.5 or higher **now 51.5

Kent St. - Pitt 55.5 - UNDER

WMU - Wisconsin 56.5 - UNDER > **56 now

WKY - Bama 59.5 - OVER

JMAD -8.5 @ Charlotte  **now -9.5

No reason to add anymore..... watching is much better than betting in the first few weeks and especially the first Conference game it vital

Bol 

JEG53 , I appreciate the comment, GL yourself 

Note on the Minny-UNC game: 

The Total is climbing and that could be validated by the fact that 2 of the 15 best rated FG kickers are playing in this game

Minny's FG kicker is rated Top 5!

Alabama kicker is rated #1 

+2.5 wasn't available when I made my bet so ...just plus 1 so I took ML haha....lots of game left but UNC is up by 2 and sure enough, my research on the kickers is coming through. I thought it could affect the total but not really

Minny hasn't used their FG kicker and he is even better than UNC's who has made two long ones

And the grind that is college begins... I love it 

How bout them Bison 

Well...the game and win comes down to a FG for me

After this game was over bro, I was coming in to find you and congratulate you and you are here

Great start! 

I need a 47 yd fg to get mine