LAST2THIRST Weeks 1 - 5  NCAAF Sides  

@Last2thirst

 Fading top 10 teams excel.  Most often They are deadly to me.  I still consider them but I focus on finding weakness in favorites. 

Recency: 

A team that was favored in week 1 and is a dog in week 2 

Said dog fail to get their team total by at least 10 points in week one. They failed to score miserably.  This dog is not playing a ranked team. These dogs are 39-17-1 ATS 

Michigan St. 16-10 vs. FAU

S. Carolina 23-19 vs.ODU

U Mass I’m not considering this team. No play

play on Michigan St.+8.5

play on S. Carolina +10

minimum these go 1-1 so to me the risk is juice. 

last weeks terrible performance has thrown a lot of eyeballs off the teams.  Probably added a few points to the lines as well.  

Thanks for those....will keep an eye and sprinkle in my parlays

Might dive in more on those in my matchup sifting but already have 3 plays....looking for 1, maybe 2 more even though I thought I should limit week 1-3 to three plays tops. Vegas in my opinion is dangling some nice totals so I grabbed them

LIKE THE ANGLE SPOTTIE.  also Great thread Last2thirst!  

@Last2thirst

 ok gotcha but parlays if they go 1-1 thats no good. I would pass because of the ROI is bests for straights.

@spottie2935

@Last2thirst

 What are your guys thoughts on NC St catching the +7.5 at home on primetime. I'm sure WCU was not circled on their calander  We know what game was circled here. Anyways the rookie for TENN looked good against   Chatanooga and Im sure he will go onto have a good career but I can't see laying +7.5 on a rookie on the road  in a primetime game against the more experienced QB in Grayson McCall. Tenn Defense is really good but this is why Grayson came to NC St to showcase his NFL potentials. I'm sure NC St Defense coordinator will have something dialed up for the inexperienced rookie. Would love some thoughts here  

 Hey, thanks for the nice comments. DOYOU 

You should expect to see lots of updated info up to Week 5 and the chase list for the TOP 12 Contenders that I will update for myself and show since I do it for me and might as well show for others

Both defenses are rated about the same preseason ...one is 18th/20th for the other

Tennessee has them in recruitability and size likely....even speed. I think the line is right. Tennessee has to take care of business to have any shot and NCST realistically, does not have good upside unless they beat Tennessee so both teams will be motivated and then I would lean Tennessee winning. Rookie QB has some upside but could regress maybe once he plays faster teams like a Power 4 opponent

I certainly wouldn't take Tenn -7.5 or even -6.5 since I am in watch mode and very selective in the first 3-5 weeks

GL this week with your decisions

By the way, I don't think McCall presents anything better than what Tenn is used to seeing in the SEC but I could be wrong which is why its a game to watch and help me later in the season or come bowl time

Can NC St. score 24 or more is the question.  Hard to answer after only one game.  I think with McCall it’s a yes.  On the other hand I know very little about these squads. 

Now that I look at their defenses.... I am leaning towards the UNDER 60.5 here !

Looking at the Alabama game:

This week it is Primetime Saturday slot at 7pm > not last week

- USF has a better rated offense than WKY ....not by a big margin

- USF has a far worse defense in rating (118th ) 

- with a Wisconsin road trip on deck, I see no reason to dial things back and quite the opposite. Give Kirby's defense something to consider by opening up the playbook this week vs USF, changing things up vs Wisky with a much stronger defense and leaving Kirby guessing for Game #4 tilt 

- you open up the playbook this week! 

Play #4 - Alabama -31.5 x 1U  

I could be wrong, but I am not worried about Alabama's ability to score each possession and carve up over 50 pts. Can their defense hold USF to under 21 pts? That is the challenge here

Summary of my Plays for Week 2: (notes for first 3 Plays are on page 3)

-don't think I will do anymore unless I see something crazy....eyeing a few but lines have frozen now

-looking into weather and totals now to see if there is something potentially too high

- research into OVER/UNDER betting last night showed me most are on UNDERs this week....but so am I and early in my first 3 bets.... in Week 1, big games had the public jumping on OVERS in the Week 1 % of bets made ...by a longshot

PLAY #1a - Rutgers -23 x 1.5U  and #1b UNDER 41 pts x 1U 

Play #2 - Texas - Michigan UNDER 45 - x HALF U

Play #3 - Iowa - Iowa St UNDER 36.5 x 1 U

Play #4 - Alabama -31.5 x 1U

If I were to play a couple more plays..... ....but I am going to stay disciplined and just use it on my proline parlays plays....

That play would be:

Memphis OVER 56.5 or 57  << like best  AND Memphis -18.5

- Memphis is a top 5 and at worst, Top 10 rated offense  ( don't go by the first game > if they wanted, they could have put up 55-65 pts

-they return 11 players including stars on offense (7 players)

-their defense is stronger than Nevada but still rated just over 100th best....I expect Akron should get 17 pts at least and as many as 24 given the fact that a former ND Oline coach is there 

- Troy returns 4-5 players in total.... only 1 player on Defense so if using the transfer portal, they might feel a little overwhelmed by the fact they would have to study film constantly to get to know the great offensive tendencies of Memphis offense

- worse case scenario, 49 - 24 < most amount of Troy points likely.....and even 42 - 17 covers the TOTAL and SPREAD 

Game tonight: 22 mph wind so I am on UNDER 37.5 in that type of weather > CROSSWIND

GL                       was gonna play Dio with Sabbath- HEAVAN AND HELL the whole album was a masterpiece, settled for one of the best intros here, a good vibe gambling jam  

            WHY NOT?       

Love Dio and Heaven and Hell goes back to when I used to cruise the beach strip at 16 ! Awesome memories

Thanks you 

Holy layers of guitar.... Judas Priest does that well...but these guys go a bit farther 

Wow....that brings back memories....man! Thanks bro 

Might have to also break out some of my old stuff and things like original Dire Straits etc.....I like a lot of things

Old rocking Styx or Reo Speedwagon even.....before they got bubble gum

Summary of my Plays for Week 2:

PLAY #1a - Rutgers -23 x 1.5U    and #1b UNDER 41 pts x 1U 

Play #2 - Texas - Michigan UNDER 45 - x HALF U  

Play #3 - Iowa - Iowa St UNDER 36.5 x 1 U   and the line movement was weird ...same with the totals as it went down fast and then up for a couple days  << this game frustrated me,  wow what an ending....I had Iowa keyed on parlays on most tickets as well, son of a gun

Play #4 - Alabama -31.5 x 1U  

2 - 3 WEEK #2 (-1 U)

Inclinations (not played but on top list):  << another reason to not get exuberant too early

Memphis OVER 56.5  NO   AND Memphis -18.5  YES

Arkansas +8.5   YES

GTECH -3      NO

Tulane +10    YES

Michigan +6.5   NO !!

Iowa -3      NO 

Kansas -5.5  NO 

Colorado +7  NO !   and UNDER 57.5  YES

App St. +17.5  NO !

Boise - Oregon OVER 61.5 ....??

BEST TEAMS I saw tonight.... TEXAS and TENNESSEE << super impressive. They could have scored 60+ ....so big and fast

We don't know how good Ohio St is ...... but I think this Tennessee team is going to surprise.....them or OLE MISS could jump up but right now, I think the Vols really impressed way more than I thought they would. I watched pretty much the whole game.

PRESEASON ratings are real OFF this year and frankly, ratings of lower ranked teams are OFF also as evidenced by these teams:

Under rated:

-Nevada 

-New Mexico St

-Bowling Green

-Northern Illinois

-Florida International

- UL Monroe

I now DON'T THINK think I have watched enough to match my preseason research and rankings:

 -BUT, I think I have found a gem of a team to follow 

 -what will matter is how a perceived talented football team will handle tough ball games and even adversity......CLEMSON showed tonight they can recover admirably but did not play a top 30 team but rather a middling program

-expect this list to change a lot 

TOP 6 (will release the rest pending Oregon outcome)

1. Georgia - undisputed after week 2 

2. Texas  - will have something to say about being #1 this year when they play GEORGIA

- get some popcorn!

3.  Ohio St - will have to beat Iowa, Nebraska and Oregon decisively in order to rise above Texas if Texas or Georgia play a close game in their upcoming battle/Buckeyes have weaker schedule

4. Tennessee - based on what I saw and how they beat a top 40 team > might be better than Ole Miss because of their defense! Beat Bama and they stay Top 4

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5. Alabama - plays Georgia and Tennessee on the road so they have to win 1 of those to move up and Milroe has to progress

6. Ole Miss - only Oklahoma and Georgia stand in their way to being Top 4 team and that will come later so its hard to place them as they are unknown

I had a hunch that Alabama might take a step back this week with a few important games ahead.  I already had so many games.  

anyways great week if conversations hope it was a good weekend

THE REST OF THE TOP 12 + potential contenders....

7. USC - great start and their defense might surprise 

8. Miami - beat a good SEC team easily, you are good 

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9. Missouri - thrashes a MAC team like they should while Penn St. struggles

10. Penn St - good road win but looked week vs a MAC team > I am sure they will move up with a strong couple of games

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11. Oregon - in a dogfight with Boise at home in Week #2 and have allowed an RB to run 192 yds on them!

12a. UTAH

12b. Oklahoma

12c. pencil in a surprise because the two #12 teams above have tough schedules!

Potential Contenders for #12 Position:

LSU, Oklahoma St, Kansas St., Nebraska

Outside Looking In Until They Figure Out Some Things on Offense or Defense:

Notre Dame, Michigan, Clemson

How Good Are They Really?

Iowa St., Texas AM, Iowa, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, UCF, Boise, Rutgers 

FPI released is pretty close to my TOP 8  >> although Penn St. and Notre Dame are still rated high despite looking like they have some sizable warts, including motivation

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi  << I never look at this to form my own ratings since I am betting based on what I see and compare rather than listening to pundits

Week 3: Record = 4 - 4  (+1 U) / 2 - 3 last week

 Play #1 - Kansas -6.5 x 1U 

- I'll take the bait > JD not playing lights out yet but this team can play crazy good at home and have an excellent running game that I think will open things up for him

-SP+ has UNLV ranked 119th on Defense....after 2 weeks, they have moved up to 106th

- Kansas D is decent  67th preseason rank SP+ > now 53rd after 2 games

Offense for Jayhawks still rated around 15th!

I like Kansas.  I’ve been waiting on an opportunity to fade UNLV after last years achievements.  Good one here

i got -7 I hope it doesn’t come into play. 

Play #2 - WVU -2.5 x 2U << my best bet so far

- I don't see a rookie QB rising up to beat a hungry WVU team 

- last year, Greene did not play in the game after the first series getting injury

- Donaldson had a good game and the final score was 17 - 6 for WVU @ home

- yes, J. White his co RB producer may not play but Greene can make up for that with his own legs

- Pitt only returns 2 defenders and lost some good defense players in the portal

- no way will WVU let a freshmen  beat them in my opinion, especially with so many vets and 13 players coming back for WVU.... offense will show the way, defense will buy in with pride getting to the rookie 

- this was supposed a rebuild year for Pitt and big plans for WVU << side with their big plans 

- besides, Pitt plays a FCS next and WVU has a tough run of very competitive games and coach will have they dialed in for this game to lead into the next stretch

I continue to shop....