LAST2THIRST Weeks 1 - 5  NCAAF Sides  

Great to see some dedicated football minds and new posters already posting/fired up for the season. Great to see!

Like always, I am here in these threads to share and listen.

Doing something different this year.

Instead of weekly threads, I will create 3 threads for 3 time periods during the season

This one is for Weeks 1-5

Bet placement sizes for me:

Half U = $60 (preferred in the first couple/few weeks)

One Unit = $120 

Double Unit = $250

Quad Unit = $500 (doubt I will get into one of these in the first 5 weeks)

Like last year, I will be selective and try to resist making too many plays ... even when I want to do 'bet shopping'

This is entertainment, but its also serious because I gamble like all of you with hard earned money that I could be using for a nice product purchase, a gift for the mrs or a trip. My time I spend in here is not for a whim or to impress.

WHAT MAKES A GREAT CAPPER LIKE THOSE I ADMIRE? (I have a long list of some who ply their trade in these threads)

Frankly, I think they have instinct + wisdom .....because skill can either be developed or innate I find.

But if you are lacking the gamblers instinct to lay off, press or key something in a certain moment, you will probably lose more money than you should have on one play or situation even if you have skill. Wisdom is something you develop from good and bad instincts (occasionally), observation, humbleness, foresight and definitely from some  hindsight (but not too much) and I think it taps a skill set that you develop from trying ....win or lose over many attempts

Dedication is the last piece of the puzzle and this takes hours and years to offer to become proficient. 

What would be an example of  instinct in Week 0? Laying off the road faves even though they had some intrigue 

What was wisdom in Week 0?  Trusting your instincts for this week

What was the dedication for Week 0? Digging into sources, scanning back through Week 0 or Week 1 scores and looking at past notes realizing that there wasn't enough info to make a proper determination (some can and they had great threads and results this week)

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Games that I like the spread or matchup to exploit potentially

> *12 games* for week 1:

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N. Carolina - Minnesota, Clemson - Georgia, Penn St - WVU, VTECH - Vanderbilt

Col St - Texas, Miami - Florida, Ohio - Syracuse, WKY - Alabama

Nevada - Troy, Irish - TexasAM, Fresno - Michigan, USC - LSU

There should be 1-2 sides in that group but lets wait and see until I do some sifting.....GL with your capping this week 

Here is to a FUN and PROFITABLE season 

Best wishes this season L2T

GL this  season @Last2thirst

Nice post! 

Will be checking out your takes on NC vs Minne. I can't get a feel for that one. 

GL L2T! 

The Boys are back in town!

 Have a great season!

Spottie  

Westie 

Chiani 

Uniman  .... keep reading what about Minny bringing back a ton of Offense and defense back from last season + a talented hotshot QB from the FCS ranks..... but also, UNC having one of the best portal transfer off seasons 

-ACC vs BIG10 home team ..... strong lean to Big10 especially if the coach knows how to motivate and prepare and I think PJ is very good (excellent bowl record too)

-Mack Brown knows how to get a team ready but going to do some digging on past situations like this and from what I read about spring camps, UNC may be atypical this year and have one of their strongest defenses ever

Can't wait to start  and I resisted all temptation to take SMU out the gate vs Nevada and bang it hard with Stone back with a strong portal off season

Note: - first 2 'high brand' games = 2 Unders to start the season

GL this season!  I'm super hyped we have CFB back! 

Hey TDH...haha, how's it going? Who was that guy we were following over the winter -spring?

Ya, good to be back. Cheers and gl this season 

Play #1 - Gophers ML x 1 U  -105

Jumped into another thread and there was a lot of good debate on which side to take *UNC or *Gophers

I did some digging....

Highly touted RB for Gophers may not play but I am fine with that. I like this record breaking QB they picked and the fact that the Gophers have the 19th best returning players in the nation + some excellent transfers. I also looked into results by the coaches the past few seasons and let me just say, UNC was higher rated to begin in all 3 seasons, yet Minny won 2 of the 3 and only respectfully lost to the #4 team in the nation one year. Here my notes:

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If anyone watch Gophers defense last year and early in the season, they were dialed in. Minny won a hard nosed game where a highly pumped Nebraska squad came in and lost 13-10 to the Gophers. I thought the Gophers QB was ok but Nebraska did pressure him well and vica versa. Sims was contained despite pre-game pontificators thinking he would run for 100 yds and throw 200+ yds vs a strong Gopher defense in the ratings. It didn't happen.

Checkmark to the Gophers QB who set records and should not be too bothered getting the ball to receivers ....including a Georgia transfer at WR

The Gophers ranked 19th best for returning players and and 3 of 4 players from their D-line last year + a pickup on edge rusher in the transfer portal from a former LSU player

Sounds to me like Fleck has aspirations....

UNC went into S.Carolina and put a hurt on the Gamecocks 31-17

UNC played an FCS team and gave up 24 at home....but won scoring 50+

Gophers won 38-0 over NMSU at home in 2022

In 2021, Gophers played #4 Ohio St in their first game and accounted themselves well with a 45 -31 loss

UNC was coached by Mack and went into VTECH as #10 in the nation to start the year and lost 17-10

Do you guys see the pattern?

Fleck gets his team ready and performs at home every 1st game of the year.....can't say the same completely with Mack

Give me the better defense to the Gophers/ like the coach better for prep and motivation, like the home field and I like the Big 10 pedigree of a good Gophers team vs a good ACC team 

Awesome 

Spring camp ratings out of ESPN SP+ had the Gophers at 40th, and UNC at 50th...

Now preseason final ratings > UNC 40th/Minny 47th

How come?

I am taking the value bet and better coach, better preparation and potentially, better team first game of the season at home

YUM YUM 

But as I say, prove it, talk is cheap so we shall see..... might have one more play and still digging. This one is booked now.

@Last2thirst

 Like Gophers as well....bol this season 

Thanks lmb4321, U2 bud 

Bags is on this too - all in double my money week 1!

kidding. $100 wager it is

Hey R172.... 

Lots of steam coming on UNC now Gophers +1.5 ....no worries. I made my case and believe in Fleck and their defense with improve QB play and personnel on the field added to a strong returning group + portal adds

Is the USC-LSU total too high?? 63.5 for the first game of the year??

That is my next investigation....

Chime in if you have a strong position on it with a great reason. Everything I have read about USC says they have a TOP 20 defense if you can believe it!!!

@Last2thirst

 Btw....like the line move for UNC....Go Gophers 

Pasting a clip from an article on si.com 

the Tigers, they'll be led by redshirt-junior quarterback Garrett Nussmeier as he looks to lead LSU to their first season opening victory in five years.

“It wasn’t his car, he was driving that thing fast, and he didn’t care if he dented it. It’s his car now. And he’s really careful that he doesn’t, you know, mess it up," Kelly said of Nussmeier during Fall Camp. “He understands that he can’t put the ball in the other team’s hands. So, I just think it’s, you know, being a starter, understanding how important it is, and recognizing that taking care of the football is absolutely crucial to our success.”

Copied this from si.com

the Tigers, they'll be led by redshirt-junior quarterback Garrett Nussmeier as he looks to lead LSU to their first season opening victory in five years.

“It wasn’t his car, he was driving that thing fast, and he didn’t care if he dented it. It’s his car now. And he’s really careful that he doesn’t, you know, mess it up," Kelly said of Nussmeier during Fall Camp. “He understands that he can’t put the ball in the other team’s hands. So, I just think it’s, you know, being a starter, understanding how important it is, and recognizing that taking care of the football is absolutely crucial to our success.”

Ok double post as it didn’t show up 

NICE FIND Spottie!

Sounds like Kelly has him dialed in to not risk take to start the year as the Tigers got themselves in a hole last year and it curtailed them from being in a better conversation for a great bowl last year (last 2 yrs they played Purdue and Wisconsin who faded and were middle of the pack BIG10)

In fact, that kind of mindset has me thinking....

Are a lot of teams going to dial it down who think they have a shot at the TOP 12 contenders, or dial it up so they can get into it?

........I am thinking they dial it down in non-con games so they don't hurt their chances... a loss by 14+ is a stain vs a loss by one score and so, the smart coaches may know that they can make it back in Conference play vs rivals like in the SEC

ARE UNDERS the way to go in non-conf games in the first part of the season? 

Watching that Total now (USC-LSU)....if it slips to 63, I might make my move while I am still kicking the tires. In fact, might as well make one move on it now based on my defense ratings of top teams:

Play #2 USC-LSU Under 63.5 x 1U (may even hit this again if it moves up)

EA Sports Top Defense rating preseason after camps:

- I sure didn't expect to see both in here 

Ohio State: 96 overall = 25
Georgia: 94 overall = 24
Oregon: 90 overall = 23
Alabama: 90 overall = 22
Clemson: 90 overall = 21
Notre Dame: 90 overall = 20
Michigan: 90 overall = 19
Texas: 88 overall = 18
Penn State: 88 overall = 17
Utah: 88 overall = 16
Florida State: 88 overall = 15
Oklahoma: 88 overall = 14
Iowa: 88 overall = 13
Virginia Tech: 86 overall =12
Wisconsin: 86 overall = 11
USC: 86 overall = 10   
Auburn: 86 overall = 9
LSU: 84 overall = 8   
Texas A&M: 84 overall = 7
Colorado: 84 overall = 6
Oklahoma State: 84 overall = 5
Louisville: 84 overall = 4
North Carolina: 84 overall = 3
Kansas State: 84 overall = 2
Florida: 84 overall =1

Also: Austin Mock prediction headlines for Week 1 relating to my other play "College football Week 1 best bets: Fading North Carolina, but riding with Florida against Miami"

TOP PRESEASON DEFENSES - 3 Different Ratings systems - to gain total score and then rank/ only teams given a Top 25 rank are listed

 1. Ohio State      74 pts

2. Georgia          68 

3. Michigan        64 

4. Penn St.         63

5. Iowa              57 

6. Notre Dame    55

7. Texas             53

8. Oregon          48

9. Alabama        48

10. Utah            48 

11. Clemson       44

12. Oklahoma     39

--------------------I notice the BIG 10 domination ----------

13. Wisconsin     30

14. Nebraska      29

15. Texas AM      25

16. Ole Miss       20

17. Louisville      17

18. V Tech          13

19. Kansas St.    13

20. Auburn         10

 OTHER STRONG Defenses as noted by 1-2 lists

21. NC State       

22. Oklahoma St.

23. Maryland 

24. Iowa St.

25. USC

26. LSU

27. Missouri

28. Kentucky

29. Boise

30. Tennessee

31. Rutgers

32. Minnesota

33. South Carolina

34. Colorado

35. North Carolina

36. Michigan St.  1 pt

37. Florida          1 pt

Defenses can be easier to define......will do Top Offenses soon

Play #3 - potentially Ohio St. -50 or UNDER 59 (no decision yet)

-absolutely no incentive to run up the score here and they don't in game one

-last score that went over 40 pts in Game 1 was vs Florida Atlantic at home (45 - 21 score) who were pretty good that year but didn't have a much greater defense than the AKRON Defense rating this year which is 76th best which is adequate to stop a drive here and there

- the only problem with this total could be, we see Akron turning over the ball for Pick6's and fumbles vs this defense since they are rated one of the poorest facing the very BEST DEFENSE in college this year

-I don't see Akron scoring and if they do, only 3 pts 

-I do see Akron's defense being on the field all the time

- a cover of the 50 pts is possible since I believe there will be one defensive TD and they should score 6 TDs on offense ...and say 1 FG 

- its an intriguing line to consider