bk1374.....thanks man......BOL this year.....................
Rather than (further) .....highjack Double-ups thread.....
I'll continue bashing that MikeMed here................
Looking at how to use STATS....
*absolutely BRUTAL.....how most guys do it
GOAL?.....is to move away.....from the ESPN generic yards/ game type garbage.....which is not adjusted to SOS and /or situation.....and TOTALLY useless
*eg my favorite?.....Kent State has the nation's BEST RUN D!
maybe 5-6 yrs ago....they allowed < 3 yds/rush......STEWPID
AND.....slowly ......quietly embrace the greatness of analytics....like that of Bill C >> SBNation....Football Study Hall.....Football Outsiders......
NOTE: not saying you MUST do this to win money....just that you will make MORE MONEY.....if you tighten things up a bit
$$ BUT......I will say this....IF you continually reject ideas...that will make you a better handicapper......pointing to your past 'success'...........you are most likely an IDIOT.....and maybe eligible for some form of government assistance.............
eg. team A vs team B
Team A averages.... lets say....3.4/rush........Team B allows 4.6/rush.......................
Will A be able to run / move the ball on B?
You've already taken it beyond Level 1 (yds / game / ESPN crap)
* that is... A averages 149 yds/g......B allows 201/g
BUT....is Level 2 good enough?............NOPE
*unless you wanna be AVERAGE....like most
Level 3 - gotta look at strength of opponents (for each)
* ie....A's opponents strength vs the run? / can B's opponents run at all?
STOP HERE?................not if you wanna be GOOD....consistently
$ to UNDERSTAND....the offensive IDENTITY of team A.....you gotta go to Bill C........Level 4
What SITUATIONS....favor / not....team A?....besides of course maybe a physical advantage / disadvantage
* run a lot on SD? (standard downs)....predictable?
* early / late down success?
* stuff rate ......allow penetration?
* sack rate......protect passer?
* a patient / move the chains type?.....or rely on explosive (big) plays?...etc ....etc
NOW.....how does team B....match-up?
*eggzamine the same type things for B's D.....
KEY : Once you have established the IDENTITY of team A's O..... you AX yourself.....
Can team B.....DISRUPT what A likes to do....??
..
$$$$$ ESSENTIALLY.....take away....their identity?
HERE.....at LEVEL 5....is where you begin to understand things.....and separate yourself from the average handicapper....and even some pretty good ones
NOTE: AND.....have the pleasure of knowing you know more.....than most every single 'analyst'.....on TV
YES....an (incredibly) broad overview....I'll do a little more on this stuff later.....break down a game with examples maybe........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.