LONGHORNHOOSIER - NCAAF - WeekS 0 & 1, 2022

ADDING

September 3, 2022 - @South Carolina -13 over Georgia State

September 3, 2022 - @Maryland -23.5 over Buffalo

Additional, predicted scores and brief write ups to follow. 

@LonghornHoosier

 I like and agree with all of your week 1 picks….You will be wiping your ass with “Benjamins” after this week bud

You have an exquisite way with words, sir!   I like it!   I hope so!   I wish you success on your card!   Cheers! 

@LonghornHoosier

 Love the plays! Best of luck this season brother! 

BOL this season

Added - Predicted Scores

@South Carolina 42 @Georgia State 24 - For Your Reference - Over/Under - 56.5

@Maryland 45 Buffalo 14 - For Your Reference - Over/Under - 64.5

Final Card - Week 1

Week 1, ATS, Lines at Heritage at Date/Time of Wager

September 3, 2022 - Houston -4 over @Texas - San Antonio (at the quasi neutral Alamodome)

September 3, 2022 - North Carolina State -10.5 over @East Carolina

September 5, 2022 - Clemson -21 over Georgia Tech - Atlanta - Mercedes Benz (Neutral)

September 3, 2022 - @South Carolina -13 over Georgia State

September 3, 2022 - @Maryland -23.5 over Buffalo

A brief write up rationale for each will follow... 

Final - Predicted Score Summary - Week 1

WEEK 1, 2022

Houston 42 @Texas San Antonio 27 - For Your Reference - Over/Under - 61.5

North Carolina State 38 @East Carolina 17 - For Your Reference - Over/Under - 55

Clemson 38 Georgia Tech 3 - For Your Reference - Over/Under - 49

@South Carolina 42 @Georgia State 24 - For Your Reference - Over/Under - 56.5

@Maryland 45 Buffalo 14 - For Your Reference - Over/Under - 64.5

Leaning towards Maryland-14 first half too. Thoughts on that? They should come out swinging 

When Clemson had Trevor Lawrence they were unstoppable in a horrible conference.  At one point during their run Clemson was on a 20-5 ATS run.  To fade Trevor Lawrence in those days was insane!  Now since he has left they are not the balanced team of the past.  Great D, Yes!  Offense, nope not there anymore.  Dont get me wrong they are still good enough to win games but they are still laying points based upon seasons ago with an outstanding offense and high performers on BOTH side of the ball. 

An example of this is when they started 2021 0-7 ATS and in game 8 covered by a hook.  A half point away from an 0-8 ATS streak!

In game 3 they lay -27 to GT and won 14-8.  I am not saying it will be this bad in this seasons matchup, but from what I see they are laying points based upon a balance and skill on both sides of the ball.  

On paper it looks as though the QB and Rb postions are going to be based upon who gets hot and gives them the best opportunity to win.  That means in week 1 they are going to give everyone a chance. Uiagalelei was 9 TD's and 9Ints last season.  His backups were 2 tds and 0 ints.  They are going to have to get better play from the QB's this season or the Defense has to score more TD's.  Clemson will cover more spreads as they fail to do so early in the season and the spreads adjust.  Just as they did last season.  

I wont get into the Defense at all.  We all know this is their strength.  According to the publication I read it was a lack of health that also caused them problems last season.  If healthy they should be better. We will see.  Dabo was quoted to say "when we put it together I think we have a chance to put together a really good team."  This is a pre-season game and what he is saying is this is not always a put together team as of yet. 

The article also says we are going to have to take a huge leap forward offensively.  That was evidenced by the way Clemson started last season.  Throw out the South Carolina State game, and excluding that game (against 6 FBS schools) the first part of the season they only scored 21 points once.  it wasnt until game 8 October 30th they did.

The TE coach was quoted to say " we need to gain some confidence on offense".  He was referring to Uiagalelei pass completion % being 55%.  Dabo has said in this article this is still Uiagalelei job.  What? This is confidence? 

I don't expect any problems on D even with the loss of DC Venables.  The article say their are elite athletes all over the D. 

To close this off the article states for Clems to return to elite level status is has to be elite on both sides of the ball. That includes Uiagalelei and or his freshman back up. 

As much as I would bet again Lawrence because he pron to burn the dog bettors against him.  Until Uiagalelei makes strides the lines (spreads) he is facing at the moment I wouldnt trust. 

best play is under, lean to the dog.  GT has issues too.

Favorite pick???

Houston -4 Is my favorite pick.  Good Luck.

Adding 

@Pittsburgh -7.5 over West Virginia

@Oklahoma -30.5 over Texas - El Paso

@spottie2935

That is a very reasonable perspective, thank you. 

Predicted Score

Oklahoma 45 Texas - El Paso 3 - For Your Reference O/U 57.5

b o l

p a l

Great start LH .. worried now im against you on a couple but really just for UDML fun money not sides .. if I don't win I hope you do .. good luck today bud!!!  

Rationale

September 3, 2022 - Houston -4 over @Texas - San Antonio (at the quasi neutral Alamodome)

Holgerson is on a mission.    Moved from WV to Houston due to more resources.     Comparable 5 year talent by both teams #71 Houston v. #74 UTSA.   Houston entering Big 12 next season.   This is a statement game for Houston to start season.  Houston lost 3 of last 5 first games.   Allowed Texas Tech to come back in 2nd half.   Houston has aspirations of a NYD Bowl Game, and with some luck CFP.   Can not afford a loss on the road to a solid CUSA team.  Traylor outstanding up and coming coach who will be in a P5 job soon.  Harris, a solid QB.   Houston's Tune to Dell and the play and athleticism of Houston's D will be the difference.   Houston has been a relatively successful program for 50+ years.   UTSA just started its football program in 2011.  Game will be close for 2.5 quarters and Houston will pull away and win by low DDS and cover.   LHH

September 3, 2022 - North Carolina State -10.5 over @East Carolina

ECU is a solid group of five team on the rise.  However, this is Doern's best team, with a solid D that has a number of high NFL draft picks, including what could be the best linebacker corps in the country with a solid secondary.  On my 5 year recruiting analysis based on 247 numbers, NC State ranked #43 while ECU #87.  QB Leary threw for 35 TD's versus only 5 INTS.   Game early at noon EST.  I think this is an advantage for the visiting team, in that  the crowd won't be quite yet awake or inebriated.   Though unlikely, this NC State Team is a ACC and possibly a CFP contender with some breaks.   Close game in the at half, then NC State pulls away, wins and covers.  LHH

Rationale - Continued

September 5, 2022 - Clemson -21 over Georgia Tech - Atlanta - Mercedes Benz (Neutral)

Clemson D will be ferocious...GT gutted by the TR Portal.    Game comes down to DJ...I am betting that he will be more like the 2020 version.  It is a statement game for Clemson on a neutral field.  On my 5 year recruiting analysis Clemson ranks #2 and GT #34.    At Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, there will probably be more Clemson fans there than GT fans.    Yes, Clemson lost Venable at DC, but they promoted from within...I think OC Streeter will have a base game plan designed to have DJ succeed.  Clemson builds up an early lead which will give Dabo a chance to play star qB recruit Cade Klubnik in Q4.  I think Clemson will play an inspirational game, to quiet the grumbling of the fan base and football pundits, that Clemson is fading. By the end of the game, DJ will be a Heisman Trophy Candidate again...Clemson rolls and cover. LHH

September 3, 2022 - @South Carolina -13 over Georgia State

Spencer Rattler will light up Georgia State.  I get the close 10 point loss at Auburn by GSU and the coach got passed over for the SC job to Muschamp, Yada, Yada, Yada...This is a mid tier SEC Team v a mid tier Sun Belt Team.  If SC can't cover a low DD spread at home at night in week 1 with a former #1 QB in Rattler, they will have not have a very good season.  5 year recruiting ranking South Carolina #23 while Georgia State was not in the top 100...Like UTSA, Georgia State started its football program a little over 10 years ago.  Though they are competitive, they have nowhere the history of South Carolina.  This game should not be close.  The Cocks win and cover.   LHH

Rationale - Continue

September 3, 2022 - @Maryland -23.5 over Buffalo

Like Hawaii, Wyoming, and Georgia Tech, Buffalo was gutted in the TR Portal, and through graduation.   Coach in 2nd year, playing on the road in week 1.  New QB, new stating RB, with only 3 returning starters on offense.  Locksley's ATS record is only like 38%, but I will bite my lip, and say, that he and the Terps will want to make a statement in week 1.  Maryland has a great OL and linebackers, and one of the best WR corps in the nation.  Tauilia Tagovailoa will torch the Buffalo secondary.  On my recruiting rankings, Maryland has the 52nd ranked recruiting average while Buffalo was not in the top 100 from 2018-2022.  A trusted colleague here on Covers Double Up For Life, a Buffalo Homer, has put out a pick on Maryland -24.  That's a good enough validation for me.   Maryland wins and covers.  LHH

September 3, 2022 -  @Oklahoma -30.5 over Texas - El Paso

The Vennables era has begun.  Normally, OU is slow out of the gate, but I think there is an urgency in Norman to say, nothing has changed for OU.   Dillon Gabriel comes in as a tr from UCF after an injury.  OU has elite players all over the field.   Vennables is considered one of the best Defensive Minds in the country.    UTEP lost some key contributors in the Tr Portal and got soundly beat at home by North Texas in week 0.  OU will win in the trenches and the skill positions and make a statement in week 1 with a resounding victory.   On my recruiting rankings, OU Ranked #6 while UTEP was not in the top 100.  On paper a major mismatch, and though 30.5 is a lot of chalk, I think OU will have it covered by the end of the 3rd quarter.  I think OU will win and cover in this matchup.  LHH

@LonghornHoosier

 What is going on with Houston? They look horrible! Seem not prepared at all!!

they are out of position on D.  Tune can’t get anything going.

Adding

Louisiana State -4 over Florida State

GLTA!