LONGHORNHOOSIER - NCAAF - WeekS 0 & 1, 2022

RESULTS

Week 0, ATS, Covers Posted Plays,  0-0-0, 0%               Week 0, O/U, Covers Posted Plays,  0-0-0, 0%

Week 1, ATS, Covers Posted Plays,  0-0-0, 0%              Week 1, O/U, Covers Posted Plays,  0-0-0, 0%

Season to Date, ATS, Covers Posted Plays, 0-0-0, 0%  Season to Date, O/U, Covers Posted Plays, 0-0-0, 0%

HOW NOW?   IT'S THAT TIME OF THE YEAR...THE BEST TIME OF THE YEAR...LET'S WORK TOGETHER WITH THE GOAL OF CONSISTENTLY BEATING THE BOOKS...I PLAN TO POST 2-5 PLAYS EACH WEEK...ON TO WEEK 0...

 Week 0, ATS, Lines at Heritage at Date/Time of Wager

August 27, 2022 - Vanderbilt -9.5 over @Hawaii

August 27, 2022 - @Illinois -14 over Wyoming

Week 1, ATS, Lines at Heritage at Date/Time of Wager

September 3, 2022 - Houston -4 over @Texas - San Antonio

September 3, 2022 - North Carolina State -10.5 over @East Carolina

September 5, 2022 - Clemson -21 over Georgia Tech - Atlanta - Mercedes Benz (Neutral)

Predicted scores and brief write ups to follow.   Good Luck to All!   

I made a small play on the Vandy/Hawaii over 54. I just can't see Hawaii stopping Vandy's run game. But I think the fighting Chang's will have a little success against the Vandy defense that is still a work in progress. I like Hawaii's offensive coordinator Shoemaker. His offenses put up some record numbers when he was at Eastern Washington. I'm hoping they can put up a couple cheap scores if it should turn into a runaway. My total on the game is 57. So there is a little value there. Good luck tomorrow and next week. 

PREDICTED SCORES

WEEK 0, 2022

Vanderbilt 35 @Hawaii 17 - For Your Reference - Over/Under - 54.5

@Illinois 31 Wyoming 10 - For Your Reference - Over/Under - 43

WEEK 1, 2022

Houston 42 @Texas San Antonio 27 - For Your Reference - Over/Under - 61.5

North Carolina State 38 @East Carolina 17 - For Your Reference - Over/Under - 55

Clemson 38 Georgia Tech 3 - For Your Reference - Over/Under - 49

Week 0, Write Ups

August 27, 2022 - Vanderbilt -9.5 over @Hawaii

Vanderbilt 35 @Hawaii 17 - For Your Reference - Over/Under - 54.5

It is obvious that this game is between two of the worst teams in their respective conferences.   However, Vandy has a one year lead on the tear down bottoms up rebuild...Clark Lea was the DC for Kelly at N Dame from 2018-2021...He seems like the right man for the job.   And I think the Vandy administration is giving him a long ramp up.   The Graham fiasco ended in an ugly manner...and the program was gutted by the TR portal...Sure, they got a few in, but the cupboard is quite build.   Timmy Chang is a Hawaii QB Legend, but he has never been more than a WR coach at Nevada.  Its going to take some time.  Relative to the Vandy rebuild, the Hawaii one is much more difficult due to a lack of resources, which has plagued Hawaii for decades.  Vandy has 14 returning starters - 7 and 7 while Hawaii has 6 4 and 2...Vandy was 2-10 last season, with an embarrassing loss to East Tennessee State...This is a must win for Vandy, in that they are not expected to win more than 3 games, one of which is this game with Hawaii.   Hawaii was 6-7 last season, but that was under Coach Graham.   Vandy returns its QB, main RB 3 of its top 6 WRs and ranks 38th on Steele's returning experience rankings...While Hawaii ranks 128th...Hawaii lost its top RB, Top 3 WRs and Top QB Cordero, who was quite prolific and who has transferred to SJSU.   I think like Stanford, Vandy has an advantage in this matchup with senior laden players, who have at least one year in the system, who are smart, and disciplined, while short on natural talent by SEC Standards.   Also, I did an analysis on the 247 Recruiting Team Rankings from 2018-2022...Believe or not, Vandy has the 51st recruiting rankings during that period.  Granted, most were recruited by the previous coach, and I imagine there were transfers out, but compared to Hawaii, who was not in the top 100, with a signficant delta in talent, I think Vandy has the advantage here.     Vandy's QB Mike Write is a duel threat, and can run, but had challenges passing last season.    Hopefully he will improve in the 2nd year of Lea's System.   I imagine Hawaii will pass on almost every play...so Vandy has to be ready...I think Vandy is going to be systematic in the running game to set up the pass.  I think Hawaii is going to have multiple turnovers due to a lack of playing together new systems etc.   If this were November, I could see a more competitive game.   Not in late August, considering the circumstances.   I think Vandy wins and covers.    

WRITE UPS CONTINUED - FOR WEEK

August 27, 2022 - @Illinois -14 over Wyoming

@Illinois 31 Wyoming 10 - For Your Reference - Over/Under - 43

Again, good luck...I will the write ups for Week 1, next week, as we get closer to the games!  

Yes, I waited for this line to go from 10 to 14, so hopefully it has not gone up too much.   WYO lost a ton of experience in the transfer portal and graduation.  Right after Hawaii in returning experience is Wyoming at #129 versus #68 for Illinois.  WYO will start Tr from Utah St and backup QB and former 2 star recruit Peasley while Illinois will start Devito who has significant starting experience at Syracuse.    I also think Illinois has some 4 star WR's that will breakout with new OC Barry Lunney from UTSA calling the plays.   Lunney had previously worked with BB at Arkansas.  Of course it will take some time to integrate his system, and it won't be flawless in game one.   Of course Illinois will rely on the Run First, but I think the pass will be more significant than last season.  And Illinois only gave up 20 PPGS on D.   Illinois returns 13 starters 7 and 6 while Wyoming returns 8, 4 and 4...Wyoming replaces its starting QB, top running back, and 3 of its top 4 WR.  Granted, Bohls is a good coach, and he will have these guys stoked.   But, like the Vandy Hawaii Game this is August Game 1, versus later in the season.   and I think the one year of BB'd system at Illinois with Devito a former 4 star recruit, I think Illinois has the advantage here.  Also, on the previously referenced 5 year recruiting rankings, Illinois ranked #53, believe it or not, while Wyoming is not in the top 100...I wish I would gotten Illinois at -10, but that's the breaks, and I did not want a key injury to cost me a potential cover.    So though the 14 point spread concerns me a bit, I think Illinois will be motivated to win this game as a must win game in order to have any chance to be bowl eligible playing in the tough Big 10 West.   In a normal year, or if this game were at Laramie, this game would be a pass for me or perhaps a play on the dog.   This is not a normal situation.   And I think Illinois will dominate from the getgo, and methodically wear down Wyoming, and win cover in the second half...

I WILL DO THE WRITE UPS FOR WEEK 1, NEXT WEEK CLOSER TO GAME TIME...AGAIN, GL TO ALL!  

BOL PAL

Goodluck LH !

Do you think Illinois will get to the end zone twice in the first half? I’m eyeballing the first half team total over 13.5 

I just noticed it jumped to 15.5 overnight 

Great stuff Longhorn - great to see you are back - Good Luck as Always with your plays

Bol this year Hoosier  

..LongHornHoosier...BOL....Hammer the Man..!!....

I wish IL would just keep running the ball. 3-5 yds per carry, then they start throwing and have to punt 

No one can say you don't put in the work and i admire your moxie predicting the scores.BOL this season.

Whats up Hoosier, got any teams you feel are undervalued at this point?  I think AM, Texas, NC State, Clemson, Maryland Miami, and South Carolina are a couple teams that might be slept on... 

best of luck this season long horn 

August 27, 2022 - @Illinois -14 over Wyoming 

One down, one to go!  At least for tonight.

Good call on Illinois!

Early on you liked Arkansas over Cincinnati. Did you change your mind about wagering on them in week 1? 

Good to see you back Longhorn have a great season !

Good Luck LH ?? Have a great year bro. Good call on Illinois

@LonghornHoosier

 Helluva a writeup and some great data/digging.....just getting caught up on reads and intel as I have had family commitments and a wedding tonight to go to

I took Vandy on a local bet but no official play except on the PICK5 tourney that was offered and I decided to see what I could do officially for bragging rights 

I look forward to some more writeups and have a great season. Your record last year was tremendous LH 

49 to 10 Vandy late in the 3rd quarter....As Dandy Don Meredith would sing on Monday Night Football..."Turn out the lights, the party's over,... they say that all good things must end..."

August 27, 2022 - Vanderbilt -9.5 over @Hawaii 

2-0-0 ATS to start the season...But, there is still much more work to do...

@LonghornHoosier

 2-0 start.  Nice.  It's always great to start out a season on the right foot.  Keep it up.  BOL for the season.