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Got down big on the Temple Owls at Vanderbilt +17. Then again at +14.
The key factor involved in the decision to make a big move on the Owls here was that the oddsmakers literally posted a BS number out of thin air to open the wagering on this game (17) ...and the number they chose, I believe, was really bad.
Why is it bad? Because the oddsmakers had no choice to put something up because it is a nationally televised prime time game that would get a good betting handle.
So the line they chose was based purely on the notion that both teams will be continuing in the same form as they ended last season....and that the public would view this game under the same premises.
The premise being:
the public is going to see Vandy's two straight bowl win seasons in an SEC where they had 2 straight 9 win seasons. Figuring it's a given that Vandy will look to continue that dominance against ( at home against a lowly AAC Temple team coming off a 2-10 season in a lessor Conference.)
What I see as the problem with that logic.....is that these teams are no where near where they were last year.
So making a betting line based on those historical facts is bogus.
Reality.....Temple though 2-10 last year .....lost 4 of the 10 games last year by less then 3 points and could have easily been 5-5 or better. They are a team on the way up with a great rising QB in PJ Walker and some all conference O and D players this season. They are an enthusiastic bunch going down to this game with a belief they can win. They have huge and athletic offensive lines with a super gifted play making group in the receiving, rushing and TE core. Though the OWLS don't return some starters on the O'Line...it is not like the guys coming in are "green"...actually they all played major downs last year and are well equipped to step in. Temple also has 4 "O" lineman over 6'6'' and over 300lbs all who have played downs last year that can run and pas block very well.
On the flip side...Vandy lost more of it's starters then they are returning (including their QB and receiver threats ) to graduation and also lost their head coach...which has now moved them to learn a new offense... and one that is centered more on a ground attack (unlike last year.) Vandy, through their camp reports are in a rebuild mode, their offense isn't getting it yet...and the overall view on Vandy is that it is a team on the decline. They havebeen struggling this spring to learn the new run first attack..that has seemed to be a slow process in terms of it's implementation.
This type of situation really make me like Temple a lot, not just to cover, but to win. The Owls have the athletes and the mojo...and I am not seeing that much of a delta in talent between the two teams. Even if Vandy wanted to run it up on Temple to cover the -17, it would be a challenge with their new primarily run only offense offense to pile up points.
Based on scouting the camps of both teams, its clear both teams are going in with their defenses way ahead of their offenses in terms of game readiness....and quite frankly on a neutral field it would be tough to pick a starightt up winner based on what I have studied.
I don't think just because Vandy is home & in the SEC (or considering the last 2 seasons, of which most of those players are no longer here) is worth a -17 point spread. In my book, I would have had it at Vandy -7.5 (and I still would be taking coach Matt Rhules Owl's even at that line.)
Temple is on the way up, and Vandy on the way down, no way I am not grabbing 14 with the better coach, better QB and better D and a program on the rise that could outright win.
Take the Temple Owls +14, and don't be shocked if the OWLS leave Tennessee with a W straight up. I may play money line as well.
Good Luck! Go Owls!
The key factor involved in the decision to make a big move on the Owls here was that the oddsmakers literally posted a BS number out of thin air to open the wagering on this game (17) ...and the number they chose, I believe, was really bad.
Why is it bad? Because the oddsmakers had no choice to put something up because it is a nationally televised prime time game that would get a good betting handle.
So the line they chose was based purely on the notion that both teams will be continuing in the same form as they ended last season....and that the public would view this game under the same premises.
The premise being:
the public is going to see Vandy's two straight bowl win seasons in an SEC where they had 2 straight 9 win seasons. Figuring it's a given that Vandy will look to continue that dominance against ( at home against a lowly AAC Temple team coming off a 2-10 season in a lessor Conference.)
What I see as the problem with that logic.....is that these teams are no where near where they were last year.
So making a betting line based on those historical facts is bogus.
Reality.....Temple though 2-10 last year .....lost 4 of the 10 games last year by less then 3 points and could have easily been 5-5 or better. They are a team on the way up with a great rising QB in PJ Walker and some all conference O and D players this season. They are an enthusiastic bunch going down to this game with a belief they can win. They have huge and athletic offensive lines with a super gifted play making group in the receiving, rushing and TE core. Though the OWLS don't return some starters on the O'Line...it is not like the guys coming in are "green"...actually they all played major downs last year and are well equipped to step in. Temple also has 4 "O" lineman over 6'6'' and over 300lbs all who have played downs last year that can run and pas block very well.
On the flip side...Vandy lost more of it's starters then they are returning (including their QB and receiver threats ) to graduation and also lost their head coach...which has now moved them to learn a new offense... and one that is centered more on a ground attack (unlike last year.) Vandy, through their camp reports are in a rebuild mode, their offense isn't getting it yet...and the overall view on Vandy is that it is a team on the decline. They havebeen struggling this spring to learn the new run first attack..that has seemed to be a slow process in terms of it's implementation.
This type of situation really make me like Temple a lot, not just to cover, but to win. The Owls have the athletes and the mojo...and I am not seeing that much of a delta in talent between the two teams. Even if Vandy wanted to run it up on Temple to cover the -17, it would be a challenge with their new primarily run only offense offense to pile up points.
Based on scouting the camps of both teams, its clear both teams are going in with their defenses way ahead of their offenses in terms of game readiness....and quite frankly on a neutral field it would be tough to pick a starightt up winner based on what I have studied.
I don't think just because Vandy is home & in the SEC (or considering the last 2 seasons, of which most of those players are no longer here) is worth a -17 point spread. In my book, I would have had it at Vandy -7.5 (and I still would be taking coach Matt Rhules Owl's even at that line.)
Temple is on the way up, and Vandy on the way down, no way I am not grabbing 14 with the better coach, better QB and better D and a program on the rise that could outright win.
Take the Temple Owls +14, and don't be shocked if the OWLS leave Tennessee with a W straight up. I may play money line as well.
Good Luck! Go Owls!
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