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LuDawg's ECU vs Marshall Saturday

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Posted: #26
Going huge on this before i saw your write up, couldn't be happier to see you on it big as well
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by poundthatbaby:



Playing devil's advocate, but ECU's rating is too high, and Marshall's rating is so low.  Buy low and sell high, right?  I know he's 37-8-1, but this 2010 football season, what's his record:  2-2?  Last 2 weeks were "no plays", and ECU covers handily, so today he jumps on the bandwagon again, so maybe it will be a loser?  Just sayin' 

i'd gladly follow a guy with a 37-8 record.. especially because I like ECU myself..

nice writeup as always LuDawg.. I was on them last week against NC State, against them against VTech.. BoL the rest of the season bro 
 
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Posted: #28
       Nice to see you back, LuDawg.  You only make me feel better about my early lean ECU.  Agree that a three TD game isn't out of the question.  BOL and go PIRATES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.                                                                                                                                                                                                                           
 
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Posted: #29
Let's do this Lu!
 
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Posted: #30
Laying big chalk with a shitty defense never a good idea but good luck to you all
 
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Posted: #31
GL Lu, glad to see ya back
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Zander47:

Great analysis.. not

Everybody saw them also get blown the hell out by UCF on their home turf last week. They are 1-5 ATS lost to a MAC squad, got blown out by nearly 30 to USM and UCF who are trying to chase ECU who probably is going to repeat as a C-USA champ. ECU just upset 2 teams in a row and is laying less than 2TD's.. at home.


This guy is critically thinking.


 
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Posted: #33
Gotta say I tend to agree with Zander and Sizzle here.  Significant changs/shift in public perception,valuation for both teams over last two weeks imo. Combined with reverse line movement and being  an extremely popular pick early on makes me step aside.   
 
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Posted: #34
GL LU, if ECU can put together complete games they can compete with a lot of teams in the ncaa.
 
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Posted: #35

There aren't many teams than can cover a DD spread in their first two drives, this week ECU will be one of them.  They win BIG against a horrible Marshall squad.

 
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Posted: #36

still remember marsall losing to bowling green by 16...ECU certainly better than them. Reverse line movements don't always work out, sometimes books do that just to fuck with your mind. There were plenty of games this week (nfl and ncaa) with reverse line movements and public/majority still won.

If ECU is focused...key word FOCUSED on the opponenet, shouldnt be close.

 
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Posted: #37
LUDAWG!!    
 
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Posted: #38
LuDawg, love getting your insight on the East Carolina games.  I was looking for you last week when they were playing their other interstate rival for that detailed analysis.  However, I did jump on ECU.  I may very well have to do it again.  East Carolina should be able to name the score against Marshall.
 
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Posted: #39
It is my impression,  esp. in CFB,  RLM is certainly worth paying attention to.  More times than not there is a bona fide reason for that movement imo.  And I try to bet in the direction of the move. Worked for me.
 
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Posted: #40
GL ... losing streak ends this week.. I'm loving it... 5 units is a big play for you.  lets do it!!
 
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Posted: #41
The line is not really short - sag ratings have ot at just over a TD, opened at just under.  Probably b/c it is a huge sandwich game - two HUGE victories and UCF next.  Tough spot for ECU. 
 
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Posted: #42
Sorry meant to say just over TWO TD's.

And I don't see the RLM.  Opened at LVSC at -12, bet up to -12.5 opener for the rest of us and now between -12.5 and -13.5 everywhere.
 
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Posted: #43
ECU
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by JulioFrazao:

Im gonna reveal to everyone here the 11 keys to win in sports betting.Been doing this for a while and I can tell u this is pretty much the holy grail on how to win and win consistently.


The more of these Factors you have in Favor of YOUR team the more likely your team will win/cover. Trust me this is all you need. Now you can imagine if your team fits into everyone one of these 11 factors or 10 then it is play of the year material.


Here is the 11 Key Factors that will determine if you got a good play or not,not in any order,Like I said the more your team has the higher % your team will cover,so everyone take notes so we can take down the books together.


1.Motivation Edge
2.Momentum
3.Homefield
4.Bounceback
5.Letdown
6.Revenge
7.Matchups
8.Who is the public doubting ?
9.Who is Better team
10.Fade the public
11.Line Value


There it is the 11 Keys Factors on how to choose your games to beat Vegas.


Goodluck to everyone and much success....



Julio F











Lu Dawg -

I read this in another post by JulioFrazao, I was curious if you agree with this theory and if so, how would you apply this to the ECU / Marshall game?

Thanks,
YMB


 
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Posted: #45
I see ECU having the advantage in these areas: 

1.Motivation Edge
2.Momentum
3.Homefield
7.Matchups
9.Who is Better team

However, I believe that they fail to meet:

10.Fade the public
8.Who is the public doubting?


I am not sure how these apply to ECU / MARSHALL:

4.Bounceback
5.Letdown
6.Revenge
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by YoungMoolaBaby:

I see ECU having the advantage in these areas: 

1.Motivation Edge
2.Momentum
3.Homefield
7.Matchups
9.Who is Better team

However, I believe that they fail to meet:

10.Fade the public
8.Who is the public doubting?


I am not sure how these apply to ECU / MARSHALL:

4.Bounceback
5.Letdown
6.Revenge
 The only thing that was left out, is that sometimes, not always, the better team wins.  Fifteen things to consider in a football game,  is going a little over board, unless you're betting your life on the game.  KISS.  We all know what that means.  BOL
 
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Posted: #47
I think it's kinda scary how everybody is on ECU after their big win vs. NC state.. I like ECU also but I don't know if it's qualified to be a HUGE play for me...
 
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Posted: #48
Great to see you back LuDawg. ECU minus the points for me this week
 
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Posted: #49

nice write up. good to see you back.

 
 
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Posted: #50
with u guys...biggest play of the year for me
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