Quote Originally Posted by alopez14325:
Interesting pick, and I actually wanted to say thank you, because I took SMU -3 LY because of your write up. I am curious as to why this falls under GOY status? Last year Tulane was so bad, that it made it very easy to back SMU.... I might play this game, but so far ive taken Memphis 3 times, and they were 1-2 ATS, but even the game they won was some of the worst football i had ever seen, Conversely SMU has actually been solid all year, but seems to be playing their best football of the year... They have Back to Back SU wins as an underdog. Obviously they smoked Houston, and beat Tulane this past week... I could see how the recency bias may have made this line smaller than it should be.
I am interested why you feel so strongly about Memphis in this spot, I'm not suggesting you're wrong because it was obvious a lot of :sharps" were on Tulane last week to beat SMU at home...
Riley Ferguson has been terrible in every game that ive watched, I think Temple held his to about 25 yards in the 1st half... Dane Evans and Tulsa beat Memphis by 19, and even though SMU doesnt have a QB as talented as Evans, Sutton will probably be the best WR their defense has covered...
Well the Houston game in hindsight is no longer the enormous win it once was.
Houston has: lost to navy, lost to SMU, came one yard from going to OT with Tulane, barely squeaked by UCF at home.
Why? Ever since Hermann was rumored to go to Texas, the team has disconnected. That coach is the heart and soul of that team and Ward Jr. is his lifeblood. One is likely leaving and the other is underwhelming. Hence the losses. Hence we can downgrade that 'enormous' win.
Add to that SMU was coming off a bye, was at home and Houston really their Super Bowl. There was high emotion that night. Then you add in the huge underdog role (21.5 pts) and you get a recipe for disaster with Houston.
Last week was not impressive at all for SMU.
In fact, Tulane handed them the game.
Tulane was up 31-28 and had a 4th and 4 on SMU's 21 with 4 minutes left. What did Coach Fritz do? He went for it and got stuffed. Passed up a 38 yard FG to go up 6.
Instead of going up 34-28, and kicking off, he gift-wrapped all the momentum back to SMU. They drove down the field and won with 1 minute left 35-31. When Tulane drops 31 points on you, that's not a good thing. They implemented the Triple Option for the first time this year and Memphis, as bad as their Defense is, held Tulane to 14 in a 24-14 win on their field.
Hicks was very shaky last week throwing 2 INT's and as you said, Riley will go toe to toe with him. And Riley will win that battle. They will both put up points but this is a very good spread and Memphis is laying points for a reason.
And you'd be remiss to mention Sutton without mentioning Anthony Miller who had 250 yards and 16 catches last week, with plays that would make O'dell Beckham envious. How will SMU contain him? They have the same exact problems in their secondary that Memphis does and he's even more of a weapon.