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Moneyline Winners

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
This will be the squarest of the square threads, but I've been doing this the last 3 seasons (this being my 3rd) just picking winners on the ML. If I have more than 1 play I do not parlay them. That is throwing expected value out the window.

For tracking purposes we say 1 unit = $100. If you wanted to tail my plays, if you gave yourself a 40 unit bankroll that would be more than enough

If you don't have a big bankroll it's really hard to get rich with these plays, but hopefully if you want to follow I can help grow the bankroll 

I know people say long term these plays are stupid. I honestly believe that if you pick good spots these are long term +EV plays so you saying otherwise is not going to make me stop.

1st play:
Clemson ML 8 units to win 1 unit

I have my eyes set on at least 2 more. Let's make it at least a +3 unit weekend
 
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Posted: #2
So you are telling us you are betting $800.00+ dollars to win $100.00 dollars, so in the case of the Clemson game you are betting at a minimum $6,400.00+ to win $600.00???

Get out of here with your bullchit.
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

So you are telling us you are betting $800.00+ dollars to win $100.00 dollars, so in the case of the Clemson game you are betting at a minimum $6,400.00+ to win $600.00???Get out of here with your bullchit.

Lmao whatever he smoking I want some of that..
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by FollowMe4wins:


Lmao whatever he smoking I want some of that..


Too funny!
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #5

When I was a kid, I used to bet like this. Until Mount Union lost to Wisconsin Whitewater outright as 21 pt -900 faves.


Then I tried trading commodities like this...baggy stops with small profit targets......


Finally, I learned that in a bet you are either right or wrong. Usually, if you have a hard-on for a big moneyline fav they cover as well as win.


But, there are no rules in gambling.....and if this approach works for you and you are racking chips then go for it.


Just do me a favor....do the math on what a 1-5 run will do to your bank roll laying -300 to -800......  Runs like that have a tendency to make men find jesus.


A sincere best of luck this season.

Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

So you are telling us you are betting $800.00+ dollars to win $100.00 dollars, so in the case of the Clemson game you are betting at a minimum $6,400.00+ to win $600.00???

Get out of here with your bullchit.

800 to win 100. I don't know where you got the 6400 to win 600. 

Tomorrow:
Okie State: 7.5 units to win 1 unit
Alabama: 5.5 units to win 1 unit
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
3-0 +3 units

1 NFL play:
Patriots: 5 units to win 1 unit
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
4-0 +4 units 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
Saturday morning:

Clemson 9.45 units to win 1 unit

I got a better line earlier in the week, but forgot to post. So, it wouldn't be fair to post that line so putting out a line that is available at the time of posting.

Looking at Bama, Ohio State, Patriots and Steelers.
 
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Posted: #10
Your on a jet similar to Payne Stewarts.


 
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Posted: #11
dont listen to the naysayers man, they are all squares and it has been drilled into their head that paying juice is a cardinal sin and you will never make profit.. its just dead wrong. 

i've been making a lot of money for years betting on heavy favorites in certain spots, I also bet dogs and value and everything else. it all comes down to long-term profit, if it is profitable, I do it. 

People think it's as if you just pick a random big moneyline and assume it will win because of its price tag. If you have a system that proves profitable, go for it. 

heres a list of potential games I like this weekend:
memphis -450 (ncaaf)
florida (ncaaf)
alabama (ncaaf)
oklahoma (ncaaf)
arsenal (english premier league soccer)
bills (nfl)
seahawks (nfl)

gl with your plays buddy, wish you the best
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by allblacktuxedo:

dont listen to the naysayers man, they are all squares and it has been drilled into their head that paying juice is a cardinal sin and you will never make profit.. its just dead wrong. 

i've been making a lot of money for years betting on heavy favorites in certain spots, I also bet dogs and value and everything else. it all comes down to long-term profit, if it is profitable, I do it. 

People think it's as if you just pick a random big moneyline and assume it will win because of its price tag. If you have a system that proves profitable, go for it. 

heres a list of potential games I like this weekend:
memphis -450 (ncaaf)
florida (ncaaf)
alabama (ncaaf)
oklahoma (ncaaf)
arsenal (english premier league soccer)
bills (nfl)
seahawks (nfl)

gl with your plays buddy, wish you the best

I don't mind people that think I'm stupid for playing games with some big juice. I just don't get why people have to bash me for it. It's not like I'm trying to sell my picks or say I'm just some godly capper


Your list looks pretty solid. Don't know anything about soccer. I'd also stay far away from Oklahoma. 
 
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Posted: #13
It's just human nature, I always question the intelligence of people who hate for no purpose. People learn things a certain way and convince themselves they are in the right mindset and anything outside of their views is wrong. Jokes on them in the end, we are all in this for the same purpose to make money.

my games come from systems, I don't put any personal bias into it. think like a computer.


 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Bic646:


I don't mind people that think I'm stupid for playing games with some big juice. I just don't get why people have to bash me for it. It's not like I'm trying to sell my picks or say I'm just some godly capper


Your list looks pretty solid. Don't know anything about soccer. I'd also stay far away from Oklahoma. 


Some people just might follow your picks and if you run cold its most certainly bankroll death.  You could win several years in a row but one bad your and its over.  By posting you are letting people think this is solid long term advice?  NO In my opinion it is not.

Is it okay for you ?  Thats your call
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
5-0 +5 units -- Got a gift.

Ohio State 4.05 units to win 1 unit

Pulled the trigger on Bama, but forgot to post so I'm not counting it towards my YTD as that definitely wouldn't be fair.
 
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Posted: #16
Grats on your win buddy.

5-0 on my list, 2 pending :)
 
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Posted: #17
Congrats!!!
 
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Posted: #18
Tough games, but I'll take it thanks guys.

6-0 +6 units

GL on your last two plays tuxedo
 
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Posted: #19
Games I'm looking at for this week -- none of these locked in.

NFL: Bengals, Patriots

NCAA: Minnesota


 
Prospect
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Posted: #20
Keep forgetting to post, Covers is low priority.

This week:
Alabama: 3 units to win 1 unit
Ohio State: 7.6 units to win 1 unit
Wisconsin: 2.6 units to win 1 unit
USC: 8 units to win 1 unit
Packers: 3.1 units to win 1 unit
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Bic646:


800 to win 100. I don't know where you got the 6400 to win 600. 

Tomorrow:
Okie State: 7.5 units to win 1 unit
Alabama: 5.5 units to win 1 unit
You have very large huevos to bet against Bill Snyder at home....
 
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Posted: #22
I did bet like u easy to win but some time 1 upset game you will lose a lot of like nba San last week lost for Utah money like was -561 I lot a lot on that money line bet
 
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Posted: #23
@anthonyline: I don't bet ML in basketball. Only ATS and totals.

@MeandMax: I'm not betting on/against K State this week. That post was from weeks ago. The post right above yours is my plays for this week
 
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Posted: #24
GL
 
 
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Posted: #25
TY
1-0 so far today. 3 more plays tonight with at least 1 tomorrow.
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