My Bowl Picks 2010

I am in the process of buying the database that he uses from Tom Stryker (espn magazine article on him recently & his database). 

I am in the process of buying the database that he uses from Tom Stryker (espn magazine article on him recently & his database). 

Also, on the subject of Dr B....

I am a fan of anyone with a method.  I dont care how successful it is, I put anyone with a well thought out plan ahead of anyone without one - for starters.

So one can argue nuances of anyones stat model - what matters - what doesnt - but I respect anyone (you, Dr B, anyone else) who isnt a "crystal ball" handicapper.  Lets face it, crystal ball handicappers are one in a hundred thousand (not exaggerating), so anyone that incorporates logic gets my attention and respect immediately.

I am always trying to learn, and incorporate new ideas.  Im like that NFL coach that travels down to a community college coach to study and steal his new idea - I always want to learn.  My biggest fear is that I am running 7 year old software and old ideas that are not necessarily indicative of results in todays age - so I am constantly tweaking - to the point of neurotic.

So if someone tells me that white jerseys beat colored jerseys, and can show me how and why and how it makes sense - I am listening.  So I am appreciative to have like minds here to discuss these things, just another reason I post here. 

ROSE BOWL:

TCU -3 (2 units) over Wisconsin:  It might shock you to hear me say this, but TCU might be the 2nd best team in the nation behind Boise.  Hard to fathom that two schools that get mid-level recruits and play in mid-level conferences could come up with the two best teams in the nation.  I doubt we will ever see it again. 

TCU has been as consistent as a team can get over the past two years. 

2010: OFF: +1.29 YPPL, DEF: +1.85 YPPL, OVERALL: +3.14 YPPLY,  SUCC Rate%: 63.6 vs SOS -2.27

2009: OFF: +1.29 YPPL, DEF: 1.83 YPPL, OVERALL +3.12 YPPL, SUCC RATE%: 62.4 vs SOS -1.68

No matter how I cut up the season, last 6 games, against tougher opponents, overall results from this year, 2009 results, TCU has been about +1.3 yards per play better than average on offense.  Their defense showed marginal improvement over the last 6 games (+2.00 yppl) and also was better against the two best offenses they played (utah, baylor).  They absolutely shut down Utah's offense, allowing 7 points and 2.95 yards per play to a team that would average 6.71 yards per play vs the average defense at home.  Against Baylor, they allowed only 10 points and 4.43 yards per play (average team would have allowed 7.03 yards to baylor at home).  In other words, TCU should be able to contain a very explosive Wisconsin offense.

Wisconsin was +1.15 yards per play better than average on offense overall on the season.  Obviously, they got better as the season progressed. Perhaps because of Jon Clay's absence or perhaps they just got better as the season went on.  Either way, I'm not sure Jon Clay being healthy is exactly good news.  Both White and Ball were more efficient on a compensated yards per carry basis.   Anyways, over the last 6 games of the season, Wisconsin was +1.77 ypply better than average.  Against the 4 toughest defenses they faced (ASU, MSU, OSU, Iowa), they were +1.2 ypply on offense.  Against Ohio St & Iowa, they were +1.58 yards per play better than average.  At the end of the year they were piling up the yards vs the defensive stalwarts of michigan, northwestern, and indiana.  Not exactly a good indicator of what we will see against one of the best defenses in the country (better than ohio st & iowa).   Meanwhile, on defense Wisconsin was not all that much better than average (+0.34 yppl) & +0.56 yppl over the last 6 games. 

Both teams defenses were slightly worse vs the run than the pass, so that will benefit both offenses slightly in this game, although TCU still had a top notch run defense, just not quite as good as their #1 pass defense.   TCU also has superior special teams and I have them running 11.5 more plays than Wisconsin will.   Wisconsin has a good success rate (57.4% against a schedule 0.73 pts easier than average), although that is still nowhere near TCU's (63.6% vs -2.27 SOS).

I have no reason to see a reason to stay away from my math model in this game as I see no such situations that Wisconsin would benefit from.  If anything, they would be the team to lack a little focus after hearing the media talk about how they will take care of an underssized team that didnt play anyone nearly as good as Wisconsin did.  My math model favors TCU by 13.34 points and even if I use wisconsin's last 6 games and throw out the rest of the games (which is silly in my opinion), I would still get TCU at -9.88.  From a PPG model (adjusted for SOS obviously), I get TCU -9.26.  

I was hoping that this line would come down as the public will hammer Wisconsin close to gametime, but I'm not sure the books will want to move this off 3 as they may get quite a bit of sharp money on TCU. 

Math Model:  TCU -13.34/53.62

ROSE BOWL:

TCU -3 (2 units) over Wisconsin:  It might shock you to hear me say this, but TCU might be the 2nd best team in the nation behind Boise.  Hard to fathom that two schools that get mid-level recruits and play in mid-level conferences could come up with the two best teams in the nation.  I doubt we will ever see it again. 

TCU has been as consistent as a team can get over the past two years. 

2010: OFF: +1.29 YPPL, DEF: +1.85 YPPL, OVERALL: +3.14 YPPLY,  SUCC Rate%: 63.6 vs SOS -2.27

2009: OFF: +1.29 YPPL, DEF: 1.83 YPPL, OVERALL +3.12 YPPL, SUCC RATE%: 62.4 vs SOS -1.68

No matter how I cut up the season, last 6 games, against tougher opponents, overall results from this year, 2009 results, TCU has been about +1.3 yards per play better than average on offense.  Their defense showed marginal improvement over the last 6 games (+2.00 yppl) and also was better against the two best offenses they played (utah, baylor).  They absolutely shut down Utah's offense, allowing 7 points and 2.95 yards per play to a team that would average 6.71 yards per play vs the average defense at home.  Against Baylor, they allowed only 10 points and 4.43 yards per play (average team would have allowed 7.03 yards to baylor at home).  In other words, TCU should be able to contain a very explosive Wisconsin offense.

Wisconsin was +1.15 yards per play better than average on offense overall on the season.  Obviously, they got better as the season progressed. Perhaps because of Jon Clay's absence or perhaps they just got better as the season went on.  Either way, I'm not sure Jon Clay being healthy is exactly good news.  Both White and Ball were more efficient on a compensated yards per carry basis.   Anyways, over the last 6 games of the season, Wisconsin was +1.77 ypply better than average.  Against the 4 toughest defenses they faced (ASU, MSU, OSU, Iowa), they were +1.2 ypply on offense.  Against Ohio St & Iowa, they were +1.58 yards per play better than average.  At the end of the year they were piling up the yards vs the defensive stalwarts of michigan, northwestern, and indiana.  Not exactly a good indicator of what we will see against one of the best defenses in the country (better than ohio st & iowa).   Meanwhile, on defense Wisconsin was not all that much better than average (+0.34 yppl) & +0.56 yppl over the last 6 games. 

Both teams defenses were slightly worse vs the run than the pass, so that will benefit both offenses slightly in this game, although TCU still had a top notch run defense, just not quite as good as their #1 pass defense.   TCU also has superior special teams and I have them running 11.5 more plays than Wisconsin will.   Wisconsin has a good success rate (57.4% against a schedule 0.73 pts easier than average), although that is still nowhere near TCU's (63.6% vs -2.27 SOS).

I have no reason to see a reason to stay away from my math model in this game as I see no such situations that Wisconsin would benefit from.  If anything, they would be the team to lack a little focus after hearing the media talk about how they will take care of an underssized team that didnt play anyone nearly as good as Wisconsin did.  My math model favors TCU by 13.34 points and even if I use wisconsin's last 6 games and throw out the rest of the games (which is silly in my opinion), I would still get TCU at -9.88.  From a PPG model (adjusted for SOS obviously), I get TCU -9.26.  

I was hoping that this line would come down as the public will hammer Wisconsin close to gametime, but I'm not sure the books will want to move this off 3 as they may get quite a bit of sharp money on TCU. 

Math Model:  TCU -13.34/53.62

Van,

This is why your threads are always a MUST read.  I don't always agree with your sides, but your opinion always garners immediate respect.  Well said and thanks for all the great posts.