SD ST vs Navy +3 (lean w/navy): I do have a ticket for Navy +5.5 that I took when the line got out, but my math model actually favors SD St by a little. No long analysis in this game. Briefly, while the game is being played at SD St's home field, Navy should have quite a few fans in attendance at this game and I do not consider it a true road game. Navy performs well in road games traditionally as they are almost 65 % ATS away from home in the last 30 years. They are 2-0 ATS in the poinsetta bowl in recent years Adding to that, the service academies have a long history of performing well in bowl games (perhaps b/c of their ability to focus/discipline that is needed to attend the academies). The academies are 23-9 ATS in bowl games since 1976 & 17-3 ATS when facing teams .600 or better.
Also, my PPG model only favors SD St by 0.56 pts & Navy has a slight advantage on a success % rate. Navy also performed much better offensively in the 2nd half of the season, and perhaps it just took them a few weeks to get their complex offense to hit its stride. The weather also appears to favor Navy in this game. I can only recommend a play on Navy at +3 or better, although I would want +3.5 (at -110 or better) to make a bet on navy.
Math Model: SD St -4.3 (2 pts for home field), total 63.3
gcnmoo,
great stuff here. your philosophy is on point. very nice work indeed. but i have a question. your math model favors sdst by 4.3pts but you like navy at +3 or 3.5? or am i missing something here?
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Quote Originally Posted by gcnmoo:
Poinsetta Bowl:
SD ST vs Navy +3 (lean w/navy): I do have a ticket for Navy +5.5 that I took when the line got out, but my math model actually favors SD St by a little. No long analysis in this game. Briefly, while the game is being played at SD St's home field, Navy should have quite a few fans in attendance at this game and I do not consider it a true road game. Navy performs well in road games traditionally as they are almost 65 % ATS away from home in the last 30 years. They are 2-0 ATS in the poinsetta bowl in recent years Adding to that, the service academies have a long history of performing well in bowl games (perhaps b/c of their ability to focus/discipline that is needed to attend the academies). The academies are 23-9 ATS in bowl games since 1976 & 17-3 ATS when facing teams .600 or better.
Also, my PPG model only favors SD St by 0.56 pts & Navy has a slight advantage on a success % rate. Navy also performed much better offensively in the 2nd half of the season, and perhaps it just took them a few weeks to get their complex offense to hit its stride. The weather also appears to favor Navy in this game. I can only recommend a play on Navy at +3 or better, although I would want +3.5 (at -110 or better) to make a bet on navy.
Math Model: SD St -4.3 (2 pts for home field), total 63.3
gcnmoo,
great stuff here. your philosophy is on point. very nice work indeed. but i have a question. your math model favors sdst by 4.3pts but you like navy at +3 or 3.5? or am i missing something here?
great stuff here. your philosophy is on point. very nice work indeed. but i have a question. your math model favors sdst by 4.3pts but you like navy at +3 or 3.5? or am i missing something here?
i agree with c12los.. ur math favors sdst by 4.3 pts but u like navy @ +3 or 3.5... but u did take navy @ +5.5????
No gamble No future
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Quote Originally Posted by c12los:
gcnmoo,
great stuff here. your philosophy is on point. very nice work indeed. but i have a question. your math model favors sdst by 4.3pts but you like navy at +3 or 3.5? or am i missing something here?
i agree with c12los.. ur math favors sdst by 4.3 pts but u like navy @ +3 or 3.5... but u did take navy @ +5.5????
great stuff here. your philosophy is on point. very nice work indeed. but i have a question. your math model favors sdst by 4.3pts but you like navy at +3 or 3.5? or am i missing something here?
My math model is only half the equation. It does not incorporate situational analysis, my own opinion, or success rates. At the current line, I would stay away.
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Quote Originally Posted by c12los:
gcnmoo,
great stuff here. your philosophy is on point. very nice work indeed. but i have a question. your math model favors sdst by 4.3pts but you like navy at +3 or 3.5? or am i missing something here?
My math model is only half the equation. It does not incorporate situational analysis, my own opinion, or success rates. At the current line, I would stay away.
Hawaii -10 over Tulsa (1.25 units): Hawaii just might be the most underrated team in the nation. On the year they've been roughly +2.00 yards per play better than average on offense (excluding garbage time), & +0.48 ypp on defense. However, they've improved mightily on defense as the year has progressed. Since LB Aaron Brown was inserted into the starting lineup in Week 3, Hawaii has performed at a +0.82 ypp clip. Over the last 7 weeks, they've done even better (+1.1 ypp). It can be argued that they've performed badly against the top offenses they've faced and this is true. Against USC, Nevada & Boise, they performed slightly below average (allowing 7.66 yards per play against teams that would average 7.42 ypp against average opponent.) However, I feel like you can almost exclude the USC game as they were not playing near the level they were at the end of the year (also Brown saw very limited time vs USC). Basically Boise was the only game all year that they fell flat in. They did what noone could do to Nevada's offense all year in their game at home and played well defensively against an above average Fresno offense.
Tulsa, while they have a potent offense (+0.52 for YR, +0.8 ypp last 6 weeks), they have a very mediocre defense at (-0.72 ypp YR, -0.74 ypp last 6 weeks) & they performed just as bad against top offenses that they played. Beyond that, they have a horrific pass defense that could not stop anybody all year long (they were actually competent stopping the run which won't help them in this game).
I do have tulsa running 10 more plays than Hawaii does, but I have hawaii averaging 8.64 ypp to Tulsa's 5.36 ypp. Hawaii has a bigger than average home field advantage historically (although it might be minimized a bit b/c it is a bowl game.) Hawaii has underperformed their stats this year as my PPG model would only have them favored by 11.42 pts, and that is probably why Hawaii continues to have value. If you throw out the Boise game, Hawaii has been absolutely incredible the last 7-8 weeks.
While double digit dogs normally aren't good bets in bowl games, I see no reason for Hawaii to have any kind of letdown here as they are playing at home and really have no reason to be upset about how the season finished. Tulsa has done very well in bowl games under Todd Graham and that does make me a little hesitant, but there is no way I can sway from my math model.
Math Model: Hawaii -21.96/72.81
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Hawaii Bowl:
Hawaii -10 over Tulsa (1.25 units): Hawaii just might be the most underrated team in the nation. On the year they've been roughly +2.00 yards per play better than average on offense (excluding garbage time), & +0.48 ypp on defense. However, they've improved mightily on defense as the year has progressed. Since LB Aaron Brown was inserted into the starting lineup in Week 3, Hawaii has performed at a +0.82 ypp clip. Over the last 7 weeks, they've done even better (+1.1 ypp). It can be argued that they've performed badly against the top offenses they've faced and this is true. Against USC, Nevada & Boise, they performed slightly below average (allowing 7.66 yards per play against teams that would average 7.42 ypp against average opponent.) However, I feel like you can almost exclude the USC game as they were not playing near the level they were at the end of the year (also Brown saw very limited time vs USC). Basically Boise was the only game all year that they fell flat in. They did what noone could do to Nevada's offense all year in their game at home and played well defensively against an above average Fresno offense.
Tulsa, while they have a potent offense (+0.52 for YR, +0.8 ypp last 6 weeks), they have a very mediocre defense at (-0.72 ypp YR, -0.74 ypp last 6 weeks) & they performed just as bad against top offenses that they played. Beyond that, they have a horrific pass defense that could not stop anybody all year long (they were actually competent stopping the run which won't help them in this game).
I do have tulsa running 10 more plays than Hawaii does, but I have hawaii averaging 8.64 ypp to Tulsa's 5.36 ypp. Hawaii has a bigger than average home field advantage historically (although it might be minimized a bit b/c it is a bowl game.) Hawaii has underperformed their stats this year as my PPG model would only have them favored by 11.42 pts, and that is probably why Hawaii continues to have value. If you throw out the Boise game, Hawaii has been absolutely incredible the last 7-8 weeks.
While double digit dogs normally aren't good bets in bowl games, I see no reason for Hawaii to have any kind of letdown here as they are playing at home and really have no reason to be upset about how the season finished. Tulsa has done very well in bowl games under Todd Graham and that does make me a little hesitant, but there is no way I can sway from my math model.
sup bro.. i'm really confused.. in your write up on byu/utep, you mentioned that double digits dogs are usually good bets on the bowl games.... but you said in your hawaii/tulsa write up that double digits dogs normally aren't good bets???? i'm confused here... which is it??
No gamble No future
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sup bro.. i'm really confused.. in your write up on byu/utep, you mentioned that double digits dogs are usually good bets on the bowl games.... but you said in your hawaii/tulsa write up that double digits dogs normally aren't good bets???? i'm confused here... which is it??
Gochu, gcn can correct me if i'm wrong, but i think he had a misprint. He meant to say double digit FAVS are usually not a good bet in bowls. (THey're not). Hey, looks like they may be a single digit fav by kickoff.
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Gochu, gcn can correct me if i'm wrong, but i think he had a misprint. He meant to say double digit FAVS are usually not a good bet in bowls. (THey're not). Hey, looks like they may be a single digit fav by kickoff.
sup bro.. i'm really confused.. in your write up on byu/utep, you mentioned that double digits dogs are usually good bets on the bowl games.... but you said in your hawaii/tulsa write up that double digits dogs normally aren't good bets???? i'm confused here... which is it??
My guess is he meant to say DD favorites are not a good bet in bowls. That is the trend.
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Quote Originally Posted by Gochu4u:
sup bro.. i'm really confused.. in your write up on byu/utep, you mentioned that double digits dogs are usually good bets on the bowl games.... but you said in your hawaii/tulsa write up that double digits dogs normally aren't good bets???? i'm confused here... which is it??
My guess is he meant to say DD favorites are not a good bet in bowls. That is the trend.
Your picks and writeups are very "Dr. Bob" ish. Do you subscribe to him and are your picks based on his? Or do you just come up with similar conclusions because you have similar methods.
I would be interested to see your writeup on a game like TCU - Wisky before Dr Bob if possible, Im very interested in taht game and while I always like to compare my numbers to his, I would also like to compare mine to yours.
Thanks
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Moo -
Just curious....
Your picks and writeups are very "Dr. Bob" ish. Do you subscribe to him and are your picks based on his? Or do you just come up with similar conclusions because you have similar methods.
I would be interested to see your writeup on a game like TCU - Wisky before Dr Bob if possible, Im very interested in taht game and while I always like to compare my numbers to his, I would also like to compare mine to yours.
Van -- Yes, I've been a Dr. Bob advocate for 3 years or so now. I wouldn't have had a clue if not for him. I've asked him countless questions and he's been kind of enough to guide me through some things. I've also tested a few various theories I had on my own (that he did not incorporate). He also does not buy into the success rate point of view, but I've found that when the succ rate % and the math model % agree, the % has been 5.5% higher over the last 2 years. My math models are more accurate in my opinion than his as I have actually gone through each play (with a co-worker) and deducted plays we see fit to give a more accurate picture of how successful the teams have been. I will deduct plays for as much as an entire quarter or any plays within the 5 yard line (as these drag down ypp).
I am in the process of buying the database that he uses from Tom Stryker (espn magazine article on him recently & his database). I am finalizing the purchase this week & then I should improve my skills in the offseason. So as of now, I just rely on Doc for the situational motivators for the most part, but as of next week I will have it at my own discretion.
I would recommend Doc Bob to anyone and believe he is probably the only handicapper I'd really be willing to pay for. I believe he does not use regression like he should however and I am a true believer that it must be used, especially early in the season (especially in basketball.) I can come up with my math model and thoughts on Wisconsin/TCU sometime tonight if I get a chance. I am positive my math model will favor TCU and will likely bet on them.This coming from a Wisconsin alum. Wisconsin does however have a very good success rate that the math model does not incorporate. I am hoping this will come down close to pickem near kickoff, although I'm not sure it will.
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Van -- Yes, I've been a Dr. Bob advocate for 3 years or so now. I wouldn't have had a clue if not for him. I've asked him countless questions and he's been kind of enough to guide me through some things. I've also tested a few various theories I had on my own (that he did not incorporate). He also does not buy into the success rate point of view, but I've found that when the succ rate % and the math model % agree, the % has been 5.5% higher over the last 2 years. My math models are more accurate in my opinion than his as I have actually gone through each play (with a co-worker) and deducted plays we see fit to give a more accurate picture of how successful the teams have been. I will deduct plays for as much as an entire quarter or any plays within the 5 yard line (as these drag down ypp).
I am in the process of buying the database that he uses from Tom Stryker (espn magazine article on him recently & his database). I am finalizing the purchase this week & then I should improve my skills in the offseason. So as of now, I just rely on Doc for the situational motivators for the most part, but as of next week I will have it at my own discretion.
I would recommend Doc Bob to anyone and believe he is probably the only handicapper I'd really be willing to pay for. I believe he does not use regression like he should however and I am a true believer that it must be used, especially early in the season (especially in basketball.) I can come up with my math model and thoughts on Wisconsin/TCU sometime tonight if I get a chance. I am positive my math model will favor TCU and will likely bet on them.This coming from a Wisconsin alum. Wisconsin does however have a very good success rate that the math model does not incorporate. I am hoping this will come down close to pickem near kickoff, although I'm not sure it will.
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Math Model!!!!!
On them as well.
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