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My Phil Steele mag has arrived !!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Posted: #51
RECALL last year.....
  *when you and I were trying to explain how the best way to ENSURE.....LONG TERM success....was to search for VALUE
  ** treating wagering as you might investing

 The foundation of this ....is of course establishing a solid set of Power Ratings.....
  *we learned quickly that this is just not the case...that basically EVERY PROFESSIONAL gambler on earth....is doing it wrong
  ** it is best ....to play on your emotions and biases.....eyeball a match-up.....and fire away !!..................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

RECALL last year.....
  *when you and I were trying to explain how the best way to ENSURE.....LONG TERM success....was to search for VALUE
  ** treating wagering as you might investing

 The foundation of this ....is of course establishing a solid set of Power Ratings.....
  *we learned quickly that this is just not the case...that basically EVERY PROFESSIONAL gambler on earth....is doing it wrong
  ** it is best ....to play on your emotions and biases.....eyeball a match-up.....and fire away !!..................



BA, I've been using the same capping methodology
since 1994 , and have kept meticulous records of
every game I have wagered on.Armed with that
date I have been able to come up with an accurate
measure to determine true value at any given
piontspread as well as my probability of success
based on that value. Probability translates to the
risk I assume on each wager. That's the optimum
for a CFB bettor . I believe I sent you a copy of
that data sheet last year. But my point is that if you
know your probability of success at any given
pointspread , you can certainly maximize your
rate of return based on assumed risk.
That is exactly like selecting an investment.

BA         
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #53

To All: in my post # 52 , I'm not trying to say look at
all the work I do to cap successfully.
I'm trying to say that in effort, you will reap reward.
While many of you who have done this for a while
know that, the majority seem to have difficulty
in equating effort, ongoing analysis of that effort.
In other words " is the effort I make productive ? "
Sometimes the hardest thing to do is through
introspection realize that to succeed , we have to
modify our approach.

" The harder you work, the luckier you'll get "

Best of Luck to All     
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #54
For most folks....not putting forth much effort is a way to relieve the inherent stress in risking that hard earned cash....it's a win/win strategy
  *you win sometimes great > you lose it's..."well if I only had the time I could kill it man!"......and then proceed to criticize the guys that actually put in the work wtf...........
 
WHEN ALL YOU GOTTA DO......is
   (A)....decide if you want to show a profit in the short / long term > using wagering as an extra source of INCOME .......or
   (B)....just have fun.....wagering as recreation only
         NOTE: there is no (C)

IF (A)  >> have a plan / stick to it > it's tough to lose money actually.....unless you really stink

IF (B) >> decide how much you can afford to lose.....set this amount aside......do what YOU want to do.....FORGET any stupid rules / used by professionals....when that cash is gone > you're done

   KEY?.....have fun > BUT don't wonder or stress out why you can't seem to win consistently.....remember you're not really trying to win


 

   
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

For most folks....not putting forth much effort is a way to relieve the inherent stress in risking that hard earned cash....it's a win/win strategy
  *you win sometimes great > you lose it's..."well if I only had the time I could kill it man!"......and then proceed to criticize the guys that actually put in the work wtf...........
 
WHEN ALL YOU GOTTA DO......is
   (A)....decide if you want to show a profit in the short / long term > using wagering as an extra source of INCOME .......or
   (B)....just have fun.....wagering as recreation only
         NOTE: there is no (C)

IF (A)  >> have a plan / stick to it > it's tough to lose money actually.....unless you really stink

IF (B) >> decide how much you can afford to lose.....set this amount aside......do what YOU want to do.....FORGET any stupid rules / used by professionals....when that cash is gone > you're done

   KEY?.....have fun > BUT don't wonder or stress out why you can't seem to win consistently.....remember you're not really trying to win


 

   




BA, I hate to lose Bud.When I do. my first inclination
is to go back , check the box, then check the data.
I  need to know. I remember on my "A" picks. back
in 2009 , I made a slight change to the calc. and I
lost my first game. I checked everything to find out
what happened. All the data looked good. Turned
out I made a math error and corrected it going
forward. I am now 9 of 9 on " A" picks since then.
I generally get one or two " A " picks per year.
If I didn't dig out the error It could of easily
happened again.

BA   
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #56
It's been a long week for me, just now catching up tonight.......  Good thread guys  

A lot of new threads out this week that just make me cringe.  Great to read some intelligent conversation here.  Thank you.

TD
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

It's been a long week for me, just now catching up tonight.......  Good thread guys  

A lot of new threads out this week that just make me cringe.  Great to read some intelligent conversation here.  Thank you.

TD




Thanks Bud. Every year about his time BA and I offer up our thoughts on "value Investing and how
it applies to sportsbetting" to the forum in hopes it
will encourage others to learn to look for value in
their wagers. Feel free to offer your thoughts on the subject as well.

TD  
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #58

As we get closer to the start of CFB season, I want
to wish all on the forum who cap their own games
the best of success this coming year.
This is what I look forward each year is the chance
to compete vs the Bookmakers to see who comes
out on top. I'll give them credit as they seem to get
smarter every year, and as I have said before, we
need to get smarter as well to keep up with them.

Best of Luck to All this season.    
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posts: 12927
Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

For most folks....not putting forth much effort is a way to relieve the inherent stress in risking that hard earned cash....it's a win/win strategy
  *you win sometimes great > you lose it's..."well if I only had the time I could kill it man!"......and then proceed to criticize the guys that actually put in the work wtf...........
 
WHEN ALL YOU GOTTA DO......is
   (A)....decide if you want to show a profit in the short / long term > using wagering as an extra source of INCOME .......or
   (B)....just have fun.....wagering as recreation only
         NOTE: there is no (C)

IF (A)  >> have a plan / stick to it > it's tough to lose money actually.....unless you really stink

IF (B) >> decide how much you can afford to lose.....set this amount aside......do what YOU want to do.....FORGET any stupid rules / used by professionals....when that cash is gone > you're done

   KEY?.....have fun > BUT don't wonder or stress out why you can't seem to win consistently.....remember you're not really trying to win


 

   


You have to work your behind off just to have a chance at being profitable, and even then you will probably have losing years every 4 years.  You have to check 128 local websites that track the team, check the weather, check all the box scores, watch replays of games, check the lines for movement every couple hours on a few different sites, etc.  This is a full time job for most people....

Everyone who bets enough will have a 20 to 50 game stretch where they win 70% of their bets - that is just the way it works when every pick has around a 50% chance to win and you have made 200+ picks.  This causes most people to think they are much better than what their true percentage is 

 
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:



You have to work your behind off just to have a chance at being profitable, and even then you will probably have losing years every 4 years.  You have to check 128 local websites that track the team, check the weather, check all the box scores, watch replays of games, check the lines for movement every couple hours on a few different sites, etc.  This is a full time job for most people....

Everyone who bets enough will have a 20 to 50 game stretch where they win 70% of their bets - that is just the way it works when every pick has around a 50% chance to win and you have made 200+ picks.  This causes most people to think they are much better than what their true percentage is 





Bud , I'm retired . This is my full time job now and
now I only have to work 6 months out of the year. 
Life is good. 

Thorpe 

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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