Navy line and action....

Hit some money on Louisiana ML the other day for +450 and trying to figure out this Navy line. I already have Navy locked in at +12.5 and ML at +360. Any insight on why the line is so big?

I know it is a new year but this series seems to be fairly close except for when Navy beat them like crazy the first two years in the conference. SMU joined conference few years before but just showing winner and score since both have been in conference since 2015.

2015 Navy 55-14

2016 Navy 75-31

2017 Navy 43-40

2018 SMU 31-30

2019 Navy 35-28

2020 SMU 51-37

2021 SMU 31-24

In 2019 Navy went 11-2 and SMU went 10-3. Since 2020 in conference games only(Navy has played few more this year), Navy has gone 8-10 and SMU 8-8. Both teams are 2-3 coming into this game this season. SMU beat North Texas and Lamar. SMU lost to Maryland, TCU and UCF(none of those are duds). Navy lost to Delaware, Memphis and Air Force. Navy beat East Carolina and Tulsa. Maybe I am thinking to much into the past in this series and how Navy beat Tulsa 53-21 last week. I feel like Tulsa and SMU are very similar. Tulsa QB Davis Brin is good and they don't have a big run game. SMU QB Tanner Mordecai is good and SMU might run it a little better than Tulsa. Mordecai targets WR Rashee Rice like crazy. Rice has 46 catches while the next 2 receivers have 13 and 12 receptions each. They have a couple WRs questionable for this game but not sure on updated status of now.

New SMU coach is not new to facing Navy since he was the offensive coordinator for a few years at SMU before taking off for Miami coordinator spot and than landing the head job back at SMU. When Coach Lashlee was O-coordinator for SMU in 2018 SMU won 31-30 and Navy won 35-28 in 2019. He was in Miami when SMU won 51-37 in 2020 and SMU won 31-24 in 2021.

SMU can't stop the run and Navy can't stop the pass. Navy is 2nd in time of possession while SMU is 126th in time of possession. If Navy controls the TOP and doesn't turn it over or more than once they likely win. Just seeing if others have info/insight on either side....BOL

Early lean on Navy dùe to their running game and SMUs 112th ranked defense.....

SMU offense is very good.....

But if they aren't on the field ...they can't score

Not going with the ML but will gladly take the inflated points and Navy as well as the Under, You said it, SMU can't stop the run and Navy should control the clock as long as they don't turn it over. SMU is struggiling on both sides of the ball right now and should continue into Friday 

Don't know but I would be careful on this line makes no sense the way SMU has been playing and now a big favorite 

This line actually opened up at -10.5 and was bet up and stabilized at -12.5 so originally the books shaded the line towards Navy from the previous 2 seasons. I don't agree with the movement. I believe we are getting value with Navy and I agree with the poster above that the line should be a little over a TD. This is not the same SMU team; there is a lot of familiar names but they've taken a step back under the Lashlee regime. Their overall defense is substantially worse than the 2 seasons before and Mordecai's completion % is down almost 10% (59%) and he's already half way to his interception mark of last season (6).  Meanwhile, Navy is improving and playing their best ball in a long while.

One of my questions has been: Will the rest disadvantage be a problem for Navy? They're on 6 days rest and SMU has 9. I say no. SMU had 11 days off and still got blown out because their coaching decisions and 2H adjustments were pitiful.  Soon as Rhys Plumlee started completing those read option slants it was game over. SMU had no counter. Navy might be able to use that. Lavatai came from a spread offense and has already surpassed his passing yards from last season.. (500+) Coach Ken Niumatalolo is the better of the two and will have his guys prepared. Since 2015, I believe Coach Ken has covered all but 1 of those games. 2020, the pandemic season was a rough one. In 2021, Navy weren't that great and still covered in Dykes last season and they were better last year. Navy may win this one SU.

Navy seems to have turned a corner 

they are running the ball way better than the start of the season 

@SpartanG

 Good stuff buddy 

Great opportunity to squeeze some juice back and play Navy at +7.5 or +8 (+140 - +150). 

Still have value and they need to win by 2 possessions 

I like the input and takes

Looked at a few stats from last years game and it looks like QB Tai Lavatai is the main rusher SMU has faced from that game. SMU held Lavatai to 53 yards on 24 rushes. Rest of guys ran for 124 yards on 29 carries. Not an ideal day for the rushing game but game was tied at 24 until SMU scored a TD midway through the 4th quarter to win the game. Throw in this was a 5-0 SMU team facing a 1-3 Navy squad at the time. The key to Navy might be the faces SMU hasn't seen. Here are the leading rushing attempts for Navy on the season and none of the listed guys below had any rushing attempts in last years game except for Lavatai.

Lavatai QB 69

Fofana FB 67

Haywood WR 41

Hall Jr FB 40

Point FB 30

Terrell Jr WR 24

5-6 other guys under 10 carries

@fightingillini

 They wanted them to score there. That’s why. Sickening but take it.  I am done with weeknight ncaaf