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Navy opens at +3.5 vs.Notre Dame and is now at +7???

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Posted: #1
Am I missing something here?

Who, square or sharp, is clamoring to take ND? ND mired in a season of incredible frustration and underperformance just proved it can't hold a lead (See Stanford and Miami and Duke among others).

Now the spread is flying up to 7? As though there is value there?

Meanwhile after Navy, a team having a very solid season, got its as s kicked in the first half against the Bulls,  showed they could get within a number overcoming a gargantuan deficit only to have CFB rules prevent them from kicking an extra point at :00 and covering.

Maybe I'm missing injury info. That has to explain this. Someone tell me otherwise.
 
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Posted: #2

I was thinking the very same thing initially.

Navy was projected to go 5-3 in conference (Congrove). With 2 upsets completed, they are currently sitting at 4-1 in conference play with a chance to with the American. Navy has an "easy" road ahead on paper with Tulsa, @ECU, @SMU. (all projected -10 spreads preseason)

NOTHING about the road ahead will be easy, after all 3 upcoming opponents got W's this week.


ND was projected to finish the season at 8-4. Currently they sit at 3-5. If ND finishes 4-0, the season doesn't look as bad of a failure with a 7-5 mark.

Notre Dames final 4 games are against Navy, Army, Virginia Tech, @USC

My guess is that Navy will be resting key players in this contest to prepare for the final stretch, Notre Dame needs to win out to salvage there season.




 
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Posted: #3
I'll plays devils advocate for sake of argument. But Navy couldn't come close to matching the level of athletes that USF threw at them on the perimeter or at QB. Navy plays hard so backdoor could always stay open, but the athletes ND has are better than what USF tossed at them. Ill dig into it deeper but right now Navy with points is on my early radar.
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Am I missing something here?

Who, square or sharp, is clamoring to take ND? ND mired in a season of incredible frustration and underperformance just proved it can't hold a lead (See Stanford and Miami and Duke among others).

Now the spread is flying up to 7? As though there is value there?

Meanwhile after Navy, a team having a very solid season, got its as s kicked in the first half against the Bulls,  showed they could get within a number overcoming a gargantuan deficit only to have CFB rules prevent them from kicking an extra point at :00 and covering.

Maybe I'm missing injury info. That has to explain this. Someone tell me otherwise.


Huh? Navy covered for 95% of their backers vs. USF. The line opened USF -8 and moved up to -9 and then stayed around -8.5/-9 for days. Then it started getting slammed down.

The only way you would've lost betting Navy is if you bet them last minute +6/+6.5. And that would've been an incredibly stupid thing to do since the line had already dropped through several key numbers at that point.

 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by motowner:



Huh? Navy covered for 95% of their backers vs. USF. The line opened USF -8 and moved up to -9 and then stayed around -8.5/-9 for days. Then it started getting slammed down.

The only way you would've lost betting Navy is if you bet them last minute +6/+6.5. And that would've been an incredibly stupid thing to do since the line had already dropped through several key numbers at that point.


I saw it at +6.5/+6/+7(push)for more than the "last minute" on 5Dimes. Didn't follow the line movement. Lots of guys got Navy at +6.5 here. The threads are in the forum.

Anyhow, you are bolstering my point Navy could backdoor this number.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by Win4Ever:

I'll plays devils advocate for sake of argument. But Navy couldn't come close to matching the level of athletes that USF threw at them on the perimeter or at QB. Navy plays hard so backdoor could always stay open, but the athletes ND has are better than what USF tossed at them. Ill dig into it deeper but right now Navy with points is on my early radar.

Yeah win but ND would not beat USF this year either at several positions cannot match talent for talent. And I don't think USF would let off the gas like the did Navy just because it is ND and the service academy affect on the other side.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by mattyc6t9:

I was thinking the very same thing initially.

Navy was projected to go 5-3 in conference (Congrove). With 2 upsets completed, they are currently sitting at 4-1 in conference play with a chance to with the American. Navy has an "easy" road ahead on paper with Tulsa, @ECU, @SMU. (all projected -10 spreads preseason)

NOTHING about the road ahead will be easy, after all 3 upcoming opponents got W's this week.


ND was projected to finish the season at 8-4. Currently they sit at 3-5. If ND finishes 4-0, the season doesn't look as bad of a failure with a 7-5 mark.

Notre Dames final 4 games are against Navy, Army, Virginia Tech, @USC

My guess is that Navy will be resting key players in this contest to prepare for the final stretch, Notre Dame needs to win out to salvage there season.





Good info.

Navy can definitely lose to Tulsa/ECU/or SMU. One at least. If they get lazy even two with a last minute score. Makes this game more important.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by mattyc6t9:

I was thinking the very same thing initially.

Navy was projected to go 5-3 in conference (Congrove). With 2 upsets completed, they are currently sitting at 4-1 in conference play with a chance to with the American. Navy has an "easy" road ahead on paper with Tulsa, @ECU, @SMU. (all projected -10 spreads preseason)

NOTHING about the road ahead will be easy, after all 3 upcoming opponents got W's this week.


ND was projected to finish the season at 8-4. Currently they sit at 3-5. If ND finishes 4-0, the season doesn't look as bad of a failure with a 7-5 mark.

Notre Dames final 4 games are against Navy, Army, Virginia Tech, @USC

My guess is that Navy will be resting key players in this contest to prepare for the final stretch, Notre Dame needs to win out to salvage there season.




Resting players against Notre Dame????? Really????
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


I saw it at +6.5/+6/+7(push)for more than the "last minute" on 5Dimes. Didn't follow the line movement. Lots of guys got Navy at +6.5 here. The threads are in the forum.

Anyhow, you are bolstering my point Navy could backdoor this number.


Yeah leaning them as well, let's see if ND keeps getting bet up.

Just wanted to clear things up about the USF game because Navy was hit extremely hard for the early part of last week and that's when line hunters act.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by motowner:



Yeah leaning them as well, let's see if ND keeps getting bet up.

Just wanted to clear things up about the USF game because Navy was hit extremely hard for the early part of last week and that's when line hunters act.

Makes sense.

Still an incredible backdoor when USF looked like they wer going to put 80 up on them.
 
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Posted: #11
Navy lost last week and will be really up for this one. This game will be a shootout. Waiting for a total. Will be on the over unless it's a crazy number.

ND finally got the running game going last week with a healthy (after the bye) Josh Adams. Navy is ranked 90th in the country at 4.7 ypa allowed, right between Georgia Southern and Toledo. Notre Dame's defense is ranked 33rd in that stat at 3.7 ypa allowed. The Irish defense has been much improved

DeShone Kizer has been inconsistent but is still one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the country. The fact this team finally pulled out a late win after so many failures (all 5 losses by 8 points or fewer) will give him confidence. I think ND scores 40+ in this one, maybe even out of necessity.

But I think 7 points is too much in a game like this. Navy always plays at their best against Notre Dame. If this gets to +7.5 I'll make a play on Navy. Still think ND wins in the end.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Makes sense.

Still an incredible backdoor when USF looked like they wer going to put 80 up on them.


Yeah line movement isn't everything, however it's worth a look especially when road dogs get steamed. Good chance most of the late Navy came in because people knew the opener was higher and got bet down.

Anyway, for right now, the resistance number for the ND game appears to be -7/+7. Opened -4.5 and the sharpest shops are now juicing the +7 for Navy. Maybe the casual Saturday morning ND fans will bet ND to move this above a TD.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by motowner:



Yeah line movement isn't everything, however it's worth a look especially when road dogs get steamed. Good chance most of the late Navy came in because people knew the opener was higher and got bet down.

Anyway, for right now, the resistance number for the ND game appears to be -7/+7. Opened -4.5 and the sharpest shops are now juicing the +7 for Navy. Maybe the casual Saturday morning ND fans will bet ND to move this above a TD.

Opened -3.5 on 5 dimes. To steam to 7 in 24 hours??? Wow. Sharps hitting this up for what? Historic rivalry here.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


I saw it at +6.5/+6/+7(push)for more than the "last minute" on 5Dimes. Didn't follow the line movement. Lots of guys got Navy at +6.5 here. The threads are in the forum.
 
Yes, this is true, as it was no where near "last minute"
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Posted: #15
isnt Navy starting QB out for this game now ? could be why line shot up 

 
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Posted: #16
Navy is very slow and cannot its very weak in the defensive backfield. The fighting Irish are going to have a field day on offense. Notre Dame is the only play and it is going to end up being a lop sided score, because of the QB play at Notre Dame. I feel I have a good grip on this game having watched these two teams numerous times this year and recently.
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Posted: #17
Navy is very slow footed on the defensive side of the ball and its defensive backfield is weak. The fighting Irish are going to have a field day on offense. Notre Dame is the only play and it is going to end up being a lop sided score, because of the QB play at Notre Dame. I feel I have a good grip on this game having watched these two teams numerous times this year and recently.
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by tonesparkz:

isnt Navy starting QB out for this game now ? could be why line shot up 


I don't see this anywhere.
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by tonesparkz:

isnt Navy starting QB out for this game now ? could be why line shot up 


You'll see Tago Smith listed on some injury reports... he played in the first game and was injured for the season.   Will Worth has been and is the starting QB 
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

Navy is very slow footed on the defensive side of the ball and its defensive backfield is weak. The fighting Irish are going to have a field day on offense. Notre Dame is the only play and it is going to end up being a lop sided score, because of the QB play at Notre Dame. I feel I have a good grip on this game having watched these two teams numerous times this year and recently.

Jeez Urban. You can't possibly be excited to lay a number that requires 2 scores minimum to get over here.
 
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Posted: #21
I don't know what makes ppl excited to take ND here.  Their defense has been atrocious all year.  Lately, they seem to have started playing but I think a lot of that has to do with other factors more so than that defense.  And now they have to defend the triple for four quarters.... No thanks  
 
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Posted: #22
Its not about ND's offense we all know they will score its that they won't stop Navy either. This game barring turnovers should be last one with the ball wins. Hard not to take Navy plus the 7.5.
 
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Posted: #23
@eastcoast - they won't admit it and this is conjecture but Notre Dame, especially in Notre Dame, is a bigger game for them than Army
 
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Posted: #24
USF gave Navy 3 4th qtr tds...... USF has made a habit of giving the whole board fits  with their clock mgmt this season... 
 
 
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Posted: #25
That is the dumbest statement ever talking about navy is going to rest some starters when they still have chance to win american
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