Miami Oh vs Illinois -24 (total of 56.0)
Vegas implied is (40-16)
Miami has shown over the course of the first three games of this year that they have not an offense that can compete at this level of football. Miami Oh cannot score. they have 2 offensive TD's all season. one came on their opening drive vs marshall. so in basically 170 minutes of football or almost three full games, they have produced 7 offensive points. they scored 0 vs Cincy, 7 vs kentucky. here is their offensive breakdown.
Miami Oh vs:
Marshall: 2/13 on 3rd down. 239 total yards: 165/74 P/R: QB was 10/22 for 165. two pass plays were 47 and 45 yards and otherwise only 73 pass yards outside of that. Rushing was 34 attempts for 74 yds. they were tied at 14-14 at HT and miami had nothing done in the 2H. they had 2 FDs and crossed Midfield once.
Uk: They were 1/16 on 3rd down vs Kentucky. miami oh had 122 total yards. 23/99 P/R. this D-1A team had 23 pass yards in an entire college football game. in 2013. vs kentucky. who was shredded by Wky. Miami threw for 23 yards in the game. let that sink in.
Cincinnati: best performance of the year defensively. worst offensively. 87 total yards. 80/7 P/R breakdown. 0/11 on 3rd down. 29 rush attempts for 7 yards rushing. long rush of 11. 80 pass yds. long of 24.
so just to get this strait, miami is averaging 109 yards on offense and are being outgained by 408 yards per game. miami on the entire season has rushed for 180 yards. on 106 carries.
vs Marshall: 34 for 74 (2.2 avg.) long of 18
vs Kentucky: 42 for 99 (2.3 avg.) long of 22
vs Cinci: 29 for 7 (0.23 avg.) long of 11
also guys if you remove the outliers (long runs that usually inflate numbers.) they have rushed 103 times for 129 yds. or 1.25 ypr minus the outliers.
this is historically bad for any team at this level. now they are on the road vs. Illinois. illinois has played some very high scoring games this year. lets look:
vs SIU: W 42-34 HT score 25-7
vs Cincy: W 45-17 HT score 21-7
vs Washington: L 34-24 HT score 10-3
2nd H scoring should not be an issue here in this game, as illinois should have to earn their points. Miami oh has played "respectable" defense in this young season, and should play hard in the 1H. Illinois success on offense is more a fluke than the normal in my opinion. they will struggle at some point. i feel that they should gravitate to the mean a little. maybe a little rust after the bye week.
here is what i will be playing if the numbers match up:
Miami Oh Team Total under 17.5
Miami Oh Team Total under 7.5 1H
Miami Oh vs Illinois under 28.5 1H
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