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NCAA FB Wk 5 (35-24-2 YTD - 59.33%)

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Posted: #51
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Week 5 Card
___________________________________
Wyoming -11.5  2units
Navy vs Wky over 56
Troy vs Duke over 63
Boise State -26


Leans: 
Miami Oh TT under 17.5
Miami Oh TT under 7.5 1 H
Miami Oh vs Illinois under 28.5 1H
Kent state +3
Utep +14
MTST +21
Akron vs BG over 53.5
SMU +20
AZ vs UW over 62
Cal vs Oregon over 83
New Mexico +2
Mississippi +17.5
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by bfritz:

Love the analysis keep up the good work JD.

What do you think about Col St -13? I like Utep +13.5 but really want +14...i think CSU is getting much respect, but lets face it. they lose to colorado and played close vs Cal Poly. I think CSU is getting way too much respect for their "good showing" vs bama. 

Also Washington -8.5 at home against Ariz? like the over more at 62...gotta think there will be many points in this one. 

Washington seems to have a HUGE home field advantage in their new stadium but the line is a little large. 
 
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Posted: #53
adding a future to the list. (betonline.ag allows for futures to be bet in season at adjusted odds)

RICE to win C-USA +750

1 unit to win 7.5 units



gotta like their chances. 

best team in their division. 

key games will be @ tulsa, @ UNT.

i think they will win their half and certainly wont be a 17.5-19.5  point dog to whoever they play in the east. 

this will go under the FUTURES wagers. 

 
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Posted: #54
PENDING FUTURES:
BYU UNDER 8.5 RSW                                   
ARMY UNDER 4.5 RSW                                 
CAL UNDER 4.5 RSW                                    
KENT STATE OVER 5.5 RSW                          
SOUTHERN MISS UNDER 5.5 RSW             
WESTERN MICHIGAN UNDER 5.5 RSW
Rice to win C-USA +750
 
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Posted: #55
Really like that future. 
Before the season I liked them equally as Tulsa, and now I like them more. Good shot there
 
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Posted: #56
JD whats you're though on OK st -18.5 at West Virginia ... WV offense has been stuck in the mud versus quality opponents.
 
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Posted: #57
WAITING FOR THE MONSTER!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #58
miami oh vs illinois total drops like a ton of bricks...

opened at 57, now 50.5 

my projections of the game were accurate, but the numbers wont be there...NOW, they will be around this:

Illinois -24.5 o/u 50.5

vegas implied is 37.5-13

meaning the Miami TT will now likely go to o/u 13.0 for the game
still might see o/u 7.5 for 1st half. more likely o/u 3.5 or 7.0 

1H o/u will now be around 25.5 or so 

not sure that i can back these numbers. 
 
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Posted: #59
a nice writeup on UTEP vs CSU...


https://www.utepathletics.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/092313aan.html
 
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Posted: #60
I like Rice as a futures bet. 
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

a nice writeup on UTEP vs CSU...


https://www.utepathletics.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/092313aan.html

Phenomenal write up jdn...damn. But they obv seem to lean UTEP...great stats tho.

Somewhere there is a stat about team records the week after playing Bama and it isn't pretty. 
 
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Posted: #62
UTEP vs COLORADO STATE (CSU-13, o/u 51)

old WAC rivalry renewed here as UTEP heads to Fort Collins for the 1st time since 1995. UTEP comes into this game after a disappointing showing at home vs UTSA. Colorado state happy after "showing well" vs bama after bama sleep walked through that game. 

Utep comes in 1-2 overall and 1-2 ATS. CSU is 1-3 but 2-2 against the number. Colorado state played last week vs alabama and lost 31-6 although the number (39-41) was never in question. colorado state comes into this game very inefficient on offense through the 1st 4 games. they have been in 3rd down situations an unbelievable 61 times already this year. they are 17/61 converting there, but it tells me that they arent doing much on 1st and 2nd down if they are in 3rd down consistently. CSU has really struggled to run the football, outside of the cal poly game. 
           vs Colorado: 28 rushes for 94 yds (long of 17)
           vs Tulsa  : 36 rushes for 167 looks good, BUT they had runs of 56 and 42. the other 34 rushes went for 75 yds. very inefficient
           vs Bama* : 26 rushes for 51 with long of 9. (not bad on the road at #1 bama) hence the *. 

CSU is a mediocre throwing team, which avgs. 209 throwing and completes 58%. they have a 4/2 TD ratio and have been sacked 4 times. 

Utep gives up 225 per game rushing, but those numbers are slightly skewed b.c. they surrendered 400 yds rushing to new mexico in week 1. they are giving up 422 yds per game on avg. and have only sacked the QB one time this year. new mexico only threw 7 passes vs utep. QB play of Jamiell showers has to improve, as he continues to miss wide open receivers and cannot throw the deep pass very effectively. heres to hoping that  getting RB Nathan Jeffery back from injury will also help the Miners. they have also encouraged Showers to run more rather than force the throw. here are some performance metrics on utep
             vs New Mex: 5/11 on 3rd down, 399 total yds: 280/119 P/R: +1 in the turnover ratio; no real outliers vs NM, they just lost an OT game. 
             vs NMST: 10/17 on 3rd down, +2 turnovers, 546 total yds, 293/253 P/R, two big runs of 54 and 45 that were outliers, 54/194 rushing outside of that. showers played well. 
             vs UTSA: 6/15 on 3rd down, 219 total yds, 119/99 P/R, 25/74 rushing + one rush of 25 yds, long pass play was 20. 

very few penalties from UTEP, 12 on the season for 85 yds total. 

aggregate 3rd down performance from UTEP this year: 21/43 nearly 50% conversion rate on the season. lightyears better than CSU. and only 65% of the opportunities as well. Utep on Defense stops the 3rd down conversion at a rate of 19/29 (very good stoppage rate) this means that teams have converted only 10/29 opportunities vs utep defense. 

I expect a very clean game from UTEP here vs CSU, who is very heavily penalized. (22 for 290 yds in 4 games) 


IM playing UTEP +14.5 (-120) feeling as though they have every opportunity to be in this game till the end. 
 
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Posted: #63
Nice write up on UTEP.

What are your thoughts on Miss -21 against Ark St?

And also OKST -18.5 against West Virginia

I think Miss has a top tier offense and should be able to cover that spread by the half and OKST should be able do what Maryland did to West Virginia last week. Although I don't see a shutout OKST can score

 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by bfritz:

Nice write up on UTEP.

What are your thoughts on Miss -21 against Ark St?

And also OKST -18.5 against West Virginia

I think Miss has a top tier offense and should be able to cover that spread by the half and OKST should be able do what Maryland did to West Virginia last week. Although I don't see a shutout OKST can score


missouri has a good offense, but they also have a putrid defense. not sure on Ark state. if you take -21 you are paying a premium. the bookies know that ArkSt lost SU as a 7 pt fave to memphis, and looked like garbage in doing so. 

they know missouri went to indiana and won. 

i think this line should be -15 so i would lay off. maybe the over is worth a look as both teams will play fast and look for 80+ snaps each. o/u is 63. 

as far as WVU is concerned, they should be faded until the prove otherwise. 

not crazy about laying -18.5 on the road, but that seems as tho it is the only play. 
 
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Posted: #65
Thanks for the breakdown there - really makes sense when you say it like that

I'm still learning over here! BOL this week!
 
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Posted: #66
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Week 5 Card
___________________________________
Wyoming -11.5  2units
Navy vs Wky over 56
Troy vs Duke over 63
Boise State -26
UTEP +14.5


Leans: 
Miami Oh TT under 17.5
*Miami Oh TT under 7.5 1 H
*Miami Oh vs Illinois under 28.5 1H
*Kent state +3
MTST +21
Akron vs BG over 53.5
*SMU +20
AZ vs UW over 62
Cal vs Oregon over 83
New Mexico +2
Mississippi +17.5
* New Mexico State +18
Tulane +12.5


* = very very seriously considering or close to locking in. 
 
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Posted: #67
Kent is moving down to +2.5. I think Archer will play
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by jdnmoney:


missouri has a good offense, but they also have a putrid defense. not sure on Ark state. if you take -21 you are paying a premium. the bookies know that ArkSt lost SU as a 7 pt fave to memphis, and looked like garbage in doing so. 

they know missouri went to indiana and won. 

i think this line should be -15 so i would lay off. maybe the over is worth a look as both teams will play fast and look for 80+ snaps each. o/u is 63. 

as far as WVU is concerned, they should be faded until the prove otherwise. 

not crazy about laying -18.5 on the road, but that seems as tho it is the only play. 

Mizzou has a putrid defense? What are you talking about?

 
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Posted: #69
Kent St will be locked in for me as well. Possibly for pretty large also....all on the MoneyLine
 
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Posted: #70
 
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Posted: #71
Any monster plays JD?
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

* * * Updated * * * 


Week 5 Card
___________________________________
Wyoming -11.5  2units
Navy vs Wky over 56
Troy vs Duke over 63
Boise State -26
UTEP +14.5


Leans: 
Miami Oh TT under 17.5
*Miami Oh TT under 7.5 1 H
*Miami Oh vs Illinois under 28.5 1H
*Kent state +3
MTST +21
Akron vs BG over 53.5
*SMU +20
AZ vs UW over 62
Cal vs Oregon over 83
New Mexico +2
Mississippi +17.5
* New Mexico State +18
Tulane +12.5


* = very very seriously considering or close to locking in. 

80% of the public is on TCU.  You might be able to get a better number if you wait.
 
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Posted: #73
Duh huh.  I'm talking to you like you don't know.  lol.  N/M.  Just trying to help out.  lol.

Kind of like your idea of CAL/ORE OVER.  
 
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Posted: #74
Also, this is USM's third straight road game.

@Neb
@ARK
NOW @Boise

Always, a worn out team on the road for three straight.
 
 
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Posted: #75
Cal vs oregon posted total of 83 is one of the 5 highest ever. 

Right behind :

Baylor vs ok state from LY  86.5
Baylor vs Wva from lazy year 84.5 
Rice vs tulsa from 2008 84.5

All three of these games SOARED over the totals. Each of these games had 100+ points scored. Gotta think this will be the case here too 
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